SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

One Night Only

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I see that the Police in England are gradually starting to loosen restrictions, e.g. you can now drive somewhere to go for a walk and take a picnic halfway round. Good news, and there definitely seem to be more cars on the road today

https://www.college.police.uk/What-...u_gIOavxlrcL3rONHcZ1-UNtpLwM1-TwWVz0JF2Ku2EYw
Not really good news at all, I enjoy my quiet roads drive to work at the moment, can't be arsed with all the thunder cnuts driving about again.
 

0le

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Not really good news at all, I enjoy my quiet roads drive to work at the moment, can't be arsed with all the thunder cnuts driving about again.
Maybe when the dust settles, more people will be able to work from home and perhaps this will lead to a reduction in commuting on roads and public transport.
 

0le

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You seriously think the NHS isn't under funded compared to the increase in demand as we live longer as a population?
His original point was that the money that has been provided has been wasted and this has been more influential than the total amount of money the NHS has been given. There is some element of truth in there, such as the attempt to upgrade ICT infrastucture several years ago.
 

11101

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You seriously think the NHS isn't under funded compared to the increase in demand as we live longer as a population?
In the last 20 years the average age of death in the UK has increased by 4.7%. In the same timeframe the healthcare budget has doubled.
 

Fiskey

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If you would allow a "top-up" NHS (which isn't too dissimilar to what other European countries have) you would immediately close the gap/overtake European countries on overall GDP spending as richer Britons take out more health insurance.

I can understand why people politically don't want this, but I think it shows the weakness of using GDP spending stats as a proxy for healthcare efficiency. The USA leads the world on spending with poor outcomes for the poorest in society.
 

Fosu-Mens

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Definitely. As I said earlier, I have heard first-hand from a seasoned cop in my general region that such guidance hasn't been given. They're essentially free to use their own interpretation of the lockdown rules, which means that you'll always have over-zealous jobsworth types who cause friction because they're more cocnerned with exerting their own authority than sensible policing.
That's not surprising.
Many cops are basically bouncers in an official uniform, and at some professional clubs, the bouncers have better defined guidelines than some cops. Not that all cops are incompetent, only that number of them are not the deepest thinkers. And having unintelligent people in authoritarian roles without strict guidelines is not dissimilar to letting 5-year-olds play with loaded guns.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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That's not surprising.
Many cops are basically bouncers in an official uniform, and at some professional clubs, the bouncers have better defined guidelines than some cops. Not that all cops are incompetent, only that number of them are not the deepest thinkers. And having unintelligent people in authoritarian roles without strict guidelines is not dissimilar to letting 5-year-olds play with loaded guns.

Yeah a lot of it comes down to common sense and like all other walks of life, the police force contains people who while they may be generally good at being a policeman, lack any kind of common sense or rational thought. They are good at painting by numbers and checking boxes but not so good when it comes to thinking on their feet and making sound decisions.
 

RK

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If you want to compare NHS spending between countries, you also need to control for loads of factors such as their obesity rates and how they've changed over time. It's probably beyond the ability of anyone here.
Go with what you consider to be the consensus of experts.
 

worldgonemad

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Can you please explain a scenario in which a policy of deliberately underfunding the NHS for almost a decade does not leave it in a worsened position to deal with a virus pandemic? I don’t see why you need this explaining to you and are acting as if people lamenting Tory cuts are part of some conspiracy.
Well, this is my point. I asked in effect if these 'cuts' have affected the response to the pandemic from an NHS point of view. You chose to answer my w
question with a question.
I dont see how we have been left short. I suppose the main points so far are that testing numbers have fallen short of some other country's but 2 points here 1 is testing part of the NHS? (genuinly not sure, and if it is, has testing capacity been reduced directly due to these cuts?). 2 from what i understand, the tests are not, or have not been as reliable as they need to be, which is what the chief medical officers have banged on about since the start. Bearing this in mind has this been part of the reason we havnt tested as much as some countries.
I conceded that ppe has been an issue throughout, this applies to every country in the world from what ive read.
Again, i ask. How, specifically through this pandemic has our nhs underperformed as a direct result of underfunding ?
 

4bars

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You’re expected to file for (very expensive) continued coverage under your old plan via COBRA, or use the special enrollment period to apply for coverage via the healthcare exchange or Medicaid. Failing that: a negotiated long term payment plan or bankruptcy.

As far as plans from the government to change that, eh...I don’t know how that would work.
Yes, the White House specifically said that coronavirus treatment would be covered by the stimulus package.

There are also state plans for low cost or completely free. A relative who lost his job, was able to enroll for Medicaid and Blue Cross Blue Shield for free in early despite being it past enrollment phase. He's effectively got full coverage, zero deductibles! (which is what Bernie was advocating all along).

Just as I'm typing this, the city is clapping for HCW

:cool:
What a relieve! I thought they would e without coverage. Good to hear that
 

Pagh Wraith

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One German state has decided to open the shopping centres on top of shops 800 up to square metres next week. Kind of funny after all this talk about finding a common approach between the states this week.
 

Compton22

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Hopefully this test is more accurate than the one we wasted millions of pounds on.
 

JPRouve

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The trends (or lack of trends, should I say) would still be there without China.
To be blunt, China are totally irrelevant in that analysis, they are only one dot, they can't skew the graph(I'm agreeing with you). But I'm not convinced by the analysis, my anecdotal impression is that the amount of deaths is more linked to the actual location of the outbreaks within a country and the public events that occurred when patient zero was in town which makes an analysis a lot more complicated than what is shown in these graphs.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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Its obvious that face masks are of benefit for all but the Government are trying to play this down, and avoid recommending them, because they're struggling to get enough for the NHS, let alone care homes and certainly let alone the general public so are trying to dampen down demand
 

Sied

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What's the reasoning behind Germany have 30,000 more cases than the UK but having 10,000 less deaths?
 

Pogue Mahone

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To be blunt, China are totally irrelevant in that analysis, they are only one dot, they can't skew the graph(I'm agreeing with you). But I'm not convinced by the analysis, my anecdotal impression is that the amount of deaths is more linked to the actual location of the outbreaks within a country and the public events that occurred when patient zero was in town which makes an analysis a lot more complicated than what is shown in these graphs.
Completely agree. Loads of complex, often inter-linked, factors means no two outbreaks are exactly alike. I’m really just pushing back on over-simplistic often repeated tropes like using deaths per capita as a fair way to compare effectiveness of NPIs between large and small countries, or that population density is the single most important factor.
 

The Purley King

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Unrelated to the coronavirus, but doesn't that horrifically ruin your gums?
When I was travelling for a year 20 years ago I met a Norwegian bloke who could put his finger into his mouth pointing upwards and it went right underneath his skin almost up to his eye socket.

He’d melted everything with this stuff!
 

BobbyManc

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What, the chairman of the doctor's trade union calling for doctors to get more funding? I for one am stunned he would do such a thing.

I don't know what more proof you can be shown that NHS funding is at or near it's highest ever levels, on absolute terms, per capita, PPP, percentage of GDP, inflation adjusted, non inflation adjusted. I actually cannot find a single metric where this is not the case.
So all the doctors who talk about the decimated services are doing it purely to get more funding rather than telling the truth and speaking about problems which are clearly documented and anyone who has had the misfortune of suffering ill-health or knowing someone who has is painfully aware of?

2010-2016 health budget grew at a rate of 1.3%. It was 5.6% under prior Labour government. Historical average 1955-2016 is 4.1%. Are you still suggesting the NHS has not been underfunded? Tory ministers openly spoke of austerity, it was not some hidden secret. Are you suggesting their austerity agenda spared the NHS in spite of all the testimony from within the health services? In spite of overseeing an historical nadir in the rate of growth for the health budget?
 

Fiskey

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The trends (or lack of trends, should I say) would still be there without China.
I haven't got the raw data to do it myself but it looks like the trends would become a lot stronger without China.
 

Revan

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Deaths are most likely being under-reported in every country. Which has grave implications for mortality.

We’ve always assumed we were working off a falsely low denominator when calculating CFR because of mild/asymptomatic cases not being picked up. However if the numerator is higher than we thought it will have a bigger impact on the CFR than a bump in the denominator numbers. I would say it’s highly unlikely we’ll end up with the <1% CFR that keeps getting talked about. Could even end up 2%+.
Diamond Princess more or less rules that out. 1.5% mortality rate (everyone was tested) with an extreme age shift.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Diamond Princess more or less rules that out. 1.5% mortality rate (everyone was tested) with an extreme age shift.
1.8% is latest mortality figure actually. Not really an extreme age shift. 1/3 were crew (avge age 36) and 2/3 passengers (avge age 69) Median age in the Uk is 40. Even if true CFR is 1% that’s a catastrophe.
 
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Full bodied red

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So all the doctors who talk about the decimated services are doing it purely to get more funding rather than telling the truth and speaking about problems which are clearly documented and anyone who has had the misfortune of suffering ill-health or knowing someone who has is painfully aware of?

2010-2016 health budget grew at a rate of 1.3%. It was 5.6% under prior Labour government. Historical average 1955-2016 is 4.1%. Are you still suggesting the NHS has not been underfunded? Tory ministers openly spoke of austerity, it was not some hidden secret. Are you suggesting their austerity agenda spared the NHS in spite of all the testimony from within the health services? In spite of overseeing an historical nadir in the rate of growth for the health budget?

I think the complaints about the Tory Government's performance during the COVID pandemic are only partly justified.

I would call them out for not sealing the border off completely - anything up to 10,000 people per day are arriving at Heathrow and entering the UK without testing or obligatory quarantine. People from Spain, from France, from Italy and from the USA in particular. Crazy !!

The never-ending ' NHS Underfunding ' argument depends entirely on your personal politics - the same Tory Government haven't been responsible for the Health Services in Spain, France, Italy and the USA, and all the stats seem to indicate that each of those countries' performance, measured in Death Rates, is actually worse than the UK.

So if you want to argue that more money spent on HealthCare = less deaths, go ahead and argue but the argument isn't ( as yet ) convincing.
 

Revan

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1.8% is latest mortality figure actually. Not really an extreme age shift. 1/3 were crew (avge age 36) and 2/3 passengers (avge age 69) Median age in the Uk is 40.
Check the shift between those over 70 years old (by far the most vulnerable category) there and in the world. And check those of under 20 years old (by far the least vulnerable category).

The median age in the world is just 28 years old. And by the numbers you gave, the median age there seems to have been around 58 years old (I might be slightly wrong cause I am using median as a proxy for mean, in absence of mean). That is far older than that of any country (I think Italy has the median at 48).

Last time I checked there (might have changed since then and I cannot find a recent research paper on it), no one under the age of 70 died back then. And people of that age were represented by 24.2%, while in real-world they are represented by only around 5%.

Additionally, in Iceland (who has done by far most tests per capita and it is such a small country that it is very hard for deaths to go unnoticed) the (current) casualty rate is 0.5%.
 

Ekkie Thump

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1.8% is latest mortality figure actually. Not really an extreme age shift. 1/3 were crew (avge age 36) and 2/3 passengers (avge age 69) Median age in the Uk is 40.
Just shy of 2%. One of the 14 deaths isn't officially recorded. I *think* it's the Australian that died in Perth on 1st of March, while the others all died in Japan.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Check the shift between those over 70 years old (by far the most vulnerable category) there and in the world. And check those of under 20 years old (by far the least vulnerable category).

The median age in the world is just 28 years old. And by the numbers you gave, the weighted mean of age there seems to have been around 58 years old. That is far older than that of any country (I think Italy has the median - which is not the same as mean - at 48).

Last time I checked there (might have changed since then and I cannot find a recent research paper on it), no one under the age of 70 died back then. And people of that age were represented by 24.2%, while in real-world they are represented by only around 5%.

Additionally, in Iceland (who has done by far most tests per capita and it is such a small country that it is very hard for deaths to go unnoticed) the (current) casualty rate is 0.5%.
A woman from Hong Kong in her 60's was the youngest reported victim. Another woman died who's age is not recorded in order to respect the wishes of her family.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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In SA, and I know in the US, many are now urging people to make their own masks out of cotton or something.

How effective are these? I assume not at all.
People don't need N95 masks unless they are in a situation where they are directly dealing with someone with COVID19.

A basic mask will help someone contain their own exhalations, etc., and decrease the likelihood that they will infect someone if they are an asymptomatic carrier.
 

Walrus

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Unrelated to the coronavirus, but doesn't that horrifically ruin your gums?
Swedish friend of mine came to stay for a week a few years back, used that stuff. Not only were his teeth and breath horrific, but the stuff really stinks in general. Wouldnt recommend.
 

JPRouve

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best video i have seen on the subject video may start at 10 mins but watch from start.
This is actually one of the most braindead video that I have seen. Starting with deaths estimates, she probabaly missed the part where measures have been taken to limit infections which means that the worst estimations will be lower than if we did nothing, the rest is just way too stupid, you would swear that she can't fathom the idea that pandemics have already happened in human history, creating a scenario around one doesn't require to be a genius or a machiavel, it just requires to have a functioning brain.
 

Revan

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A woman from Hong Kong in her 60's was the youngest reported victim. Another woman died who's age is not recorded in order to respect the wishes of her family.
Yep, could be. The latest paper I found was from March (there have been new deaths since then).