Uh oh
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
- Thread starter Levo
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I'm fecking on TILT!!!!
Well shit... Bizarre turn of events it has to be said.
Blimey, going to take a while to recover from this!
My only solace will be in us winning tomorrow night.For today:
Villarreal to win
Famalicão to win
Small punt @ Under 2.5 at Malmo match
Small punt ACCA BTTS Malmo - IFK Norrkoping + Inter to win + Man Utd -1 @3.58
Villarreal to win
Famalicão to win
Small punt @ Under 2.5 at Malmo match
Small punt ACCA BTTS Malmo - IFK Norrkoping + Inter to win + Man Utd -1 @3.58
MUFC game BTS YES @1.9
Would be very surprised if saints didn't score
Would be very surprised if saints didn't score
Acca lost annoyingly. Was value in every game so far still.
Hopefully under 3.5 in La Houston wins tonight.
2/4. Not bad overall but it could had been better if Villarreal won. But a positive day nonetheless.
Small punts:
BTTS Chelski @2.21
Acca Chelski ht/ft + Atlanta -2 + Portimonense to win @3.96
DNB Tondela @2.17
Regular punt:
Benfica -1 Vitória @1.98 Benfica has been in a poor shape, but Guimarães players and manager are not in good terms.
BTTS Chelski @2.21
Acca Chelski ht/ft + Atlanta -2 + Portimonense to win @3.96
DNB Tondela @2.17
Regular punt:
Benfica -1 Vitória @1.98 Benfica has been in a poor shape, but Guimarães players and manager are not in good terms.
Going with Chelsea to score 3+ goals
Benfica's odd to win is too good. What's happening to you guys?
Two main reasons:
1- The players felt the manager didn't support them and lost confidence on him.
2 -The board said that due to Coronavirus problems, the title winning bonus would probably not be paid, and you can't keep donkeys running without carrots on a string.
But for this game I'm confident because Guimarães is on an internal war after the manager publicly trashed the entire squad on a leaked video couple of weeks ago which was surprising because they are having a rebuild season and things are going well overall. Ivo Vieira is a very good manager and he puts his teams playing very good football, but unfortunately you also need to defend your group to show leadership and ultimately he failed to do that.
This be could important information that bookies don't even know. I'll give it a go on Benfica here.
Edit: Just checked Benfica forum, they are the opposite of you. They don't look confident
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Small punt Sta Clara to score in the 1st half.
Done!
Well, I learned my lesson NEVER to bet on MLS again. What a shit show that league is right now.
I mean they’re technically just friendlies aren’t they?
No, the games now count towards league standings.
I thought it was some pre-season tournament for some reason
Thanks. You got this spot on. However they almost blew it with 1-1 in 84th min like their last game
A very decent night. My regular punt went in and I got my ACCA right.
Was expecting a less committed Vitoria de Guimarães, but games against top team are a motivation because the players use them as a showcase.Thanks. You got this spot on. However they almost blew it with 1-1 in 84th min like their last game
Small Punts:
Newcastle DC @2.15
Arsenal DC @1.92
Verona +1 @2.15
Sassuolo+1 @2.20
Regular punts:
Jesus to score @1.91 (if he starts)
Braga -1.5 @1.81
Bodo/Glimt-1 & Molde -1 @2.84
Edit:
Added a smaller punt:
Panathinaikos @2.30
Newcastle DC @2.15
Arsenal DC @1.92
Verona +1 @2.15
Sassuolo+1 @2.20
Regular punts:
Jesus to score @1.91 (if he starts)
Braga -1.5 @1.81
Bodo/Glimt-1 & Molde -1 @2.84
Edit:
Added a smaller punt:
Panathinaikos @2.30
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I think Sassuolo @ 2.25 DC is half decent. Not really betting atm but I like those odds the way both teams are playing.
Any filthy arbers about here? You can get a free 10% roi on the hole in one market on the Memorial golf this weekend. 6/5 for both yes and no available across different bookies.
I usually do arbing in live markets at European basketball matches. Will check if that arb is available on PT betting houses.
Nice!
What does CD mean?
You mean DC? Double Chance.
Yeah
Thanks, got it.Wolves DC, Spurs BTS No, City win, Liverpool DC @3.3
This Spurs no BTS actually a good shout. gonna follow you on this one.
Double with City win @ 2.2
I haven't really done any betting since the restart but I've updated my database and remembered the discussion we had on here regarding the affect of empty stadiums on home bias. Now we have some numbers.
Average expected home advantage (based on demargininalised Pinnacle closing odds):
Before the break: 0.32 goals
After the break: 0.14 goals
This is from a sample of 62 EPL games since the restart so it might be off but looks like estimates of it being cut in half weren't far off. I'll do the other leagues later.
Average expected home advantage (based on demargininalised Pinnacle closing odds):
Before the break: 0.32 goals
After the break: 0.14 goals
This is from a sample of 62 EPL games since the restart so it might be off but looks like estimates of it being cut in half weren't far off. I'll do the other leagues later.
small punt live in AIK to win
now a smaller one live at Djugarden scoring.
I watched bits of the match and it looked like AIK was the only team interested in wining the gameWe’re playing so bad atm..
Edit: cheers 1-0!
Two lives in a row!
Lost the Braga -1 bet but I don't regret it. It was a one way game and Belenenses got an extremely lucky draw out of the blue. Braga could had won 4 - 1 if they had managed to score half of the chances they missed.
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