2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[prateik]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Women shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway.. MAGA.

 

[berbatrick]

For my sins.



Bad use of data. I could also pull poll data out my ass. We already know why males without college education are more likely to vote for Trump. Highlighting one poll does nothing.

If Joe Biden is declared the winner of the Presidential election, will you accept the outcome and wish Biden the best?

Accept outcome:
Male: 49%
Female: 37%

Cuban American women:

81% Trump
178% Biden

People who have already voted early:

Males 22%
Women 17%

Males:

Biden 49%
Trump 47%

what are you talking about

 

[owlo]

what are you talking about

Showing that throwing out one bit of data from one poll is dumb and is nothing more than hyperbole.

 

[The Boy]

Posted this in the presidency thread, but actually much better here.

Keep it up Donny. Every move he makes at the moment seems to be alienating sections of the electorate. Yes he'll hold his shrinking base, but now he's down significantly among over 65s, female voters and voters that dislike both candidates - all significant sections that he won in 2016. I am increasingly confident of a Biden landslide.

Biden's up in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and even Florida, the campaign is pumping money into Texas as Trump pulls money out. Even fecking Ohio is tied.

CNN's SSRS poll is amazing reading (fivethirtyeight has SSRS at B/C rating and 0-1.2 Dem bias) and was conducted mostly after Trumps positive test (Oct 1-4)
Full poll here: http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/06/rel12b.-.2020.pdf
This Reagan/Mondale style numbers!

Nationally: Biden 57 - Trump 41 (Mind made up about candidate 90%)

Policies
Handling of C-19: Biden 59 - Trump 38
Healthcare: Biden 59 - Trump 39
Supreme Court nominations: Biden 57 - Trump 41
Crime and safety: Biden 55 - Trump 43
Economy: Biden 50 - Trump 48
Racial inequality: Biden 62 - Trump 36

Demographics
Women: Biden 66 - Trump 32
Men: Biden 45 - Trump 51
PoC: Biden 72 - Trump 25
Over 65s: Biden 60 - Trump 39
White non-college: Biden 43 - Trump 56
Independents: Biden 57 - Trump 38

Perceptions
Cares about you: Biden 58 Trump 38
Unite the country Biden 61 - Trump 33
Clear plan to solve US problems: Biden 55 - Trump 39
Honest and trustworthy: Biden 58 - Trump 33

 

[Charlie Foley]

For my sins.

Interesting. With work I look more at raw data: polling figures, demographics, ballot location/access etc. I don’t use it to predict outcomes though, not my role.

I read/heard somewhere earlier that pollsters modified their methods/formulas post 2016 to better factor in the “silent” Trump vote which suggested these Biden leads are comparatively even worse for Trump vs 2016.( I actually think the “polls were wrong” argument re 2016 for both Trump and Brexit is a bad one or at least exaggerated since people don’t understand margin of error, I reckon it showed a flaw in how people analyse the data polls were providing).

Don’t know if that is even true or if so what changes were made but I was hoping to ask someone who knows their shit so that is you.

are there particular polls you’re impressed by? Why is your model the one you settled on? What do you think of Nate Silver? Who killed Tupac?

 

[berbatrick]

Showing that throwing out one bit of data from one poll is dumb and is nothing more than hyperbole.

it's roughly consistent with what we know about voting patterns

 

[owlo]

Interesting. With work I look more at raw data: polling figures, demographics, ballot location/access etc. I don’t use it to predict outcomes though, not my role.

I read/heard somewhere earlier that pollsters modified their methods/formulas post 2016 to better factor in the “silent” Trump vote which suggested these Biden leads are comparatively even worse for Trump vs 2016.( I actually think the “polls were wrong” argument re 2016 for both Trump and Brexit is a bad one or at least exaggerated since people don’t understand margin of error, I reckon it showed a flaw in how people analyse the data polls were providing).

Don’t know if that is even true or if so what changes were made but I was hoping to ask someone who knows their shit so that is you.

are there particular polls you’re impressed by? Why is your model the one you settled on? What do you think of Nate Silver? Who killed Tupac?

I didn't work on 2016 as I was working on post referendum British modeling. And I got that quite wrong to an extent. (though I did predict early and consistently swinson would lose her seat lol) - I bring this up as I think that the 2019 British election was a more fundamental polling/modelling error than in the US. The extent to which people simply did not "trust" Corbyn wasn't correctly picked up and it amounted for massive skews and a huge conservative majority.

On 2016: I think the big post 2016 change is weighting by education by the better pollsters, and the inclusion in the models of more "chaos" (specific state polls like Florida have also worked to differentiate different tranches of Latino voters etc. Cuban americans and mexican americans vote hugely differently) - Though covid is incredibly hard to get a handle on. The 2016 polls were 1. pretty much within the margins as you say, and 2. clinton did win the popular vote, but the EC weighting 'got' her. Pollsters can always strive to improve though, and I think the weighting by education (which really wasn't a big thing pre 2016) has improved things. About the silent/shy trump vote.... nah, I don't believe it.

Nate Silver is that savant kid that pretty much lives and breathes modeling. I'm not sure he does anything else BUT that in his life. If he worked in fintech he'd be a billionaire. Monmouth and Siena are always beasts. I like SurveyUSA for the granularity it gives too.

Because my model isn't public facing or accountable if I get things wrong (other than losing $$$) I can be more aggressive with my predictions. For example, the 538 model uses fundamentals and state polling (+expert opinion for the senate one) to determine the victor. I can apply other states more recent polls to extrapolate what that state could now look like. (eg. We know the demographics of each state. If we look at https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf for example, we can start to determine what Texas will look like now, as we've not had any real high quality polls lately. If we add 3 or 4 other good polls, we start to get an average of predicted Texas data.)`

Tupac is still alive. After the pandemic, we'll get his next 10 albums!

it's roughly consistent with what we know about voting patterns

It's not and that's my issue with it. We know men are more likely to vote trump, and women biden, but we also know those aren't the average numbers.

 

[berbatrick]

It's not and that's my issue with it. We know men are more likely to vote trump, and women biden, but we also know those aren't the average numbers.

they aren't average for the usual ~6-8 point leads, this was a poll with a double digit lead.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

I thought something similar - how can people in financial difficulty vote for someone who is basically holding the people hostage by ending this bill?

This is Trump play 101. Create a problem yourself, then solve it and claim victory. It has already worked countless times. No reason it won't work again considering his name will be on the cheque.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Is there a reason for this? Are women more educated?

 

[calodo2003]

This is Trump play 101. Create a problem yourself, then solve it and claim victory. It has already worked countless times. No reason it won't work again considering his name will be on the cheque.

It smacks exactly of what the skeletal Rick Scott did in Florida - massively underfund education early on in his first term as governor. Then, later on in his governorship, he announced that educational funding would be increased. This was both a political move as well as helping to expand the insane charter schooling Florida now finds. Voters had forgotten about the cuts by the time Scott filled the coffers again & triumphed him as a friend of education. It was nauseating.

 

[Vooon]

I didn't work on 2016 as I was working on post referendum British modeling. And I got that quite wrong to an extent. (though I did predict early and consistently swinson would lose her seat lol) - I bring this up as I think that the 2019 British election was a more fundamental polling/modelling error than in the US. The extent to which people simply did not "trust" Corbyn wasn't correctly picked up and it amounted for massive skews and a huge conservative majority.

On 2016: I think the big post 2016 change is weighting by education by the better pollsters, and the inclusion in the models of more "chaos" (specific state polls like Florida have also worked to differentiate different tranches of Latino voters etc. Cuban americans and mexican americans vote hugely differently) - Though covid is incredibly hard to get a handle on. The 2016 polls were 1. pretty much within the margins as you say, and 2. clinton did win the popular vote, but the EC weighting 'got' her. Pollsters can always strive to improve though, and I think the weighting by education (which really wasn't a big thing pre 2016) has improved things. About the silent/shy trump vote.... nah, I don't believe it.

Nate Silver is that savant kid that pretty much lives and breathes modeling. I'm not sure he does anything else BUT that in his life. If he worked in fintech he'd be a billionaire. Monmouth and Siena are always beasts. I like SurveyUSA for the granularity it gives too.

Because my model isn't public facing or accountable if I get things wrong (other than losing $$$) I can be more aggressive with my predictions. For example, the 538 model uses fundamentals and state polling (+expert opinion for the senate one) to determine the victor. I can apply other states more recent polls to extrapolate what that state could now look like. (eg. We know the demographics of each state. If we look at https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf for example, we can start to determine what Texas will look like now, as we've not had any real high quality polls lately. If we add 3 or 4 other good polls, we start to get an average of predicted Texas data.)`

So what's the conclusion on the recent polls? Do I understand this correctly when I am under the impression that the polls are considered way more accurate than in 2016? And that we're seeing strong indicators that Biden is going to win several of the most important states and quite possibly winning the electorate college by clear margins if the polls are correct?

I'm getting confused when I see headlines stating that Biden is up by 14% when you know that winning the popular vote in the US counts for nothing. Is there any point doing national polls in the US at all when all you need is one more vote than the other guy in the crucial states?

 

[Raoul]

So what's the conclusion on the recent polls? Do I understand this correctly when I am under the impression that the polls are considered way more accurate than in 2016? And that we're seeing strong indicators that Biden is going to win several of the most important states and quite possibly winning the electorate college by clear margins if the polls are correct?

I'm getting confused when I see headlines stating that Biden is up by 14% when you know that winning the popular vote in the US counts for nothing. Is there any point doing national polls in the US at all when all you need is one more vote than the other guy in the crucial states?

A rising tide lifts all boats, so a higher national lead eventually gets reflected in all the individual states. I believe Obama beat Romney by 6 points nationally in 2012 which at the time translated into an over 100 electoral vote win. Biden’s average national lead against Trump is about 8 right now, and the more we see 14 and 16 point polls, the greater the indication that things continue to move in Biden’s favor during the critical final stretch.

 

[MuFc_1992]

Guys How bad is the poll by Trafalgar group? It seems to be dragging all the battleground averages down in Realclearpolitics and seems wildly lopsided in favour of Trump.

 

[SirAF]

Guys How bad is the poll by Trafalgar group? It seems to be dragging all the battleground averages down in Realclearpolitics and seems wildly lopsided in favour of Trump.

They’re rated C- by 538 for what it is worth.

 

[MuFc_1992]

They’re rated C- by 538 for what it is worth.

I heard somewhere that they were actively advised by Trump campaign to come up with polls that showed him winning and If that is true than C- is generous.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Is there a reason for this? Are women more educated?

It's because Republicans (much more than Democrats) promote polices that are controlling, oppressive and sexist-stereotypical towards women - e.g. they oppose a woman's right to choose when it comes to having an abortion, they talk about "housewives", and they promote lots of macho-man BS.

 

[calodo2003]

Guys How bad is the poll by Trafalgar group? It seems to be dragging all the battleground averages down in Realclearpolitics and seems wildly lopsided in favour of Trump.

In the relay race, Rasmussen passed the baton cleanly to Zogby which cleanly passed it to Trafalgar. The only curiosity now to is which right-smelling polling group the baton will be passed for the final leg.

 

[calodo2003]

It's because Republicans (much more than Democrats) promote polices that are controlling, oppressive and sexist-stereotypical towards women - e.g. they oppose a woman's right to choose when it comes to having an abortion, they talk about "housewives", and they promote lots of macho-man BS.

The incessant hammering the women in this country, the suburban women to a large extent, have been receiving from the right has hopefully swayed enough of them. It’s not like they couldn’t have seen this coming in 2016 & were very complicit in electing Trump, but it’s great to see them trying to atone for their egregious error.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Is there a reason for this? Are women more educated?

Abortion rights and the numerous allegations of sexual misconduct against Trump would probably play a role here. Generally, I would also suspect that Trump's faux macho bullshit speaks to men more than to women.

Still incredible that they are pretty much equal among men. How is that possible?

 

[calodo2003]

Abortion rights and the numerous allegations of sexual misconduct against Trump would probably play a role here. Generally, I would also suspect that Trump's faux macho bullshit speaks to men more than to women.

Still incredible that they are pretty much equal among men. How is that possible?

Uneducated males, especially the thumpers, many in the south, constitute a solid majority of the men who support the president.

 

[MuFc_1992]

The incessant hammering the women in this country, the suburban women to a large extent, have been receiving from the right has hopefully swayed enough of them. It’s not like they couldn’t have seen this coming in 2016 & were very complicit in electing Trump, but it’s great to see them trying to atone for their egregious error.

I am willing to give anyone who voted Trump in 2016 a pass because he did have a populist message regarding trade and that really resonated with people in the rust belt.

 

[calodo2003]

I am willing to give anyone who voted Trump in 2016 a pass because he did have a populist message regarding trade and that really resonated with people in the rust belt.

I can also, to a certain extent. The populist message was an lie at the time, it was pretty easy to see through for any non-delusional person, but Trump’s misogyny certainly was not hidden in 2016.

 

[utdalltheway]

I am willing to give anyone who voted Trump in 2016 a pass because he did have a populist message regarding trade and that really resonated with people in the rust belt.

I can’t. Those stupid fcuks are the reason we’re in this shitshow now. The last 4 years are down to them. They can vote for Biden but then feck right off.

 

[calodo2003]

I can’t. Those stupid fcuks are the reason we’re in this shitshow now. The last 4 years are down to them. They can vote for Biden but then feck right off.

I have the same sympathy for those women to the same level as I have sympathy to the family farmers in the flyover states. Some, but don’t want to see their stupidity whitewashed too much.

 

[nimic]

Is there a reason for this? Are women more educated?

Left-wing ideals such as empathy and solidarity line better up with traditional "female" traits. There are probably more men on the hard left of communism or anarchism (two wildly different ideologies, incidentally), but the trend of women = more left is a pretty standard one.

You could also say the left usually has more women-friendly politics, historically. Not only on abortion (in the countries where that is at all controversial), but other things as well. In Norway, at least, the left was very much instrumental in the fight for female suffrage and feminism in general. Let's put it this way, there's a reason self-proclaimed "feminists" on the right feel so uncomfortable on Women's Day in Norway when all the banners and speeches come out.

 

[Raoul]

Is there a reason for this? Are women more educated?

Its because the US is a pretty masculinized country, where males control the power structure and many want to keep America steeped around a homogenous, patriarchal identity, whereas Dems are much more heterogeneous, multicultural, and open minded in their approach to governance, which is why you see the disparity among the sexes.

 

[MrMarcello]

IRT to uneducated males supporting GOP candidates, does some of their choice come down to a massive inferiority complex?

 

[utdalltheway]

Small dicks, big trucks.

 

[calodo2003]

IRT to uneducated males supporting GOP candidates, does some of their choice come down to a massive inferiority complex?

It definitely plays into the ‘what, you think you are better than me?’ mentality of such males, especially in the south.

 

[owlo]

White women are still fairly reliably republican [outside of this trump bubble] though it is slowly shifting.

 

[GlastonSpur]

IRT to uneducated males supporting GOP candidates, does some of their choice come down to a massive inferiority complex?

Historically speaking, fascist and would-be fascist groupings have always drawn the bulk of their support from ill-educated males. This is one reason why fascists in power always move to shut down/restrict universities and other higher education establishments.

It's also the case that ill-educated males, frustrated at not being generally able to make much of a mark in this world, tend to be drawn to 'rule by force' (i.e. fascism) - where they are given more license to literally make a mark by physically beating up (or worse) perceived opponents.

 

[Cloud7]

Historically speaking, fascist and would-be fascist groupings have always drawn the bulk of their support from ill-educated males. This is one reason why fascists in power always move to shut down/restrict universities and other higher education establishments.

It's also the case that ill-educated males, frustrated at not being generally able to make much of a mark in this world, tend to be drawn to 'rule by force' (i.e. fascism) - where they are given more license to literally make a mark by physically beating up (or worse) perceived opponents.

To add to that, poorly educated men also seem to have a fetish for oppression, and seem to really enjoy painting themselves as victims of the big, bad world. I think it ties in to what you said, frustration at not being able to make a mark in the world.

 

[GlastonSpur]

To add to that, poorly educated men also seem to have a fetish for oppression, and seem to really enjoy painting themselves as victims of the big, bad world. I think it ties in to what you said, frustration at not being able to make a mark in the world.

I'd like to see a radical reform of the school curriculums (the National Curriculum in England) whereby, starting from the earliest years, the teaching of inter-personal and intra-personal skills, knowledge and understandings are placed at the very centre rather than (as now) on the fringe.

 

[Raoul]

No surprise here given how conservative West Virginia has been trending lately

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[calodo2003]

Historically speaking, fascist and would-be fascist groupings have always drawn the bulk of their support from ill-educated males. This is one reason why fascists in power always move to shut down/restrict universities and other higher education establishments.

It's also the case that ill-educated males, frustrated at not being generally able to make much of a mark in this world, tend to be drawn to 'rule by force' (i.e. fascism) - where they are given more license to literally make a mark by physically beating up (or worse) perceived opponents.

How educated were the Brownshirts? I know that Nazi Germany placed quite the focus on education, albeit a very slanted curriculum, but I would gather that the Brownshirts fell into the uneducated group as they were essential to the early days of the regime.

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[calodo2003]

Posted this in the Plump gets Covid thread, but it’s so good it deserves to be here also...

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Jesus. How reliable is this specific pollster?

 

[Raoul]

Jesus. How reliable is this specific pollster?

Franklin Pierce is rated B/C over at FiveThirtyEight