Shame he never agreed to give me free money for that: "Stockholm with 26% infected on 1.5." nonsense.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I freeze when I read stuff like this. Makes me think this could go on for 10+ years.
I think there is a very good chance we will have one or more vaccines soon that will be widely rolled out during 2021.
Yeah that is the hope. Although in countries such as mine or @Sarni 's, I am not sure that will do much good as most people will refuse to get vaccinated as the virus is one big hoax.
Do you have any idea on how the trials are going? Apart from news about the one case of side effects foe the Oxford one, news seem to have gone silent on that front.
Doubt we’ll hear anything useful for another month or two. Although the one and only upside of the current surge is that it should mean we see results sooner. The more virus in the community the quicker they can see results.
I still can't get my head around the 10pm pub closure thing. How did they think this was ever going to work? If you didn't want to close the hospitality sector down, which I can understand, then you had to ban people mixing in households outside of their support bubble for there to be any chance of making an impact. Just seemed like a no brainer to me. Closing a pub an hour earlier...I mean how can you dress that up in any way that explains how it would stop a virus spreading?
I keep trying to convince myself that whoever is making these decisions is informed and going purely off science/data, but then I remember that the likes of Boris, Gove, Mogg and eyetest man are definitely going to be wading their opinions in on any decisions being made, and I actually feel my heart sink. This lot were doing a great job of fecking up millions of people's lives before covid was even a thing.
The situation is too complex to look at one stream of data and draw conclusions. It doesn't show you the positive effects of not reducing people's quality of life, or how many people haven't died from issues other than covid due to not diverting so much resource. Also ignores the fact that Sweden has a different population density to most of Europe and that their healthcare system is so much better than ours for example that it isn't even comparable....they have never been in danger of hospitals being overun.
Although I also think the "everything's great here" mantra seems a bit wide of the mark given their economy is taking a massive hit and they've still had quite a significant death rate...but again that figure only really gives you any meaningful data once you look at overall death numbers, age range, etc. and compare it to before covid.
I caught it back at the begining of March while at Uni. Literally over half of the people on my course managed to catch it at the same time, and that's just going by people who had symptoms. I'm not aware of anyone I passed it on to (symptoms wise)...and at the time it was supposedly impossible to have it unless you'd flown directly back from China, and the symptoms I had (mainly loss of smell) weren't being linked with it, so it's not like I spent 2 weeks locked in a room.
When I think about it now the amount of fecking damage we did and lives we cost during that period of pretending it wasn't in circulation is mad. They must have known that hospital admissions were abnormally high by that point.
I keep trying to convince myself that whoever is making these decisions is informed and going purely off science/data, but then I remember that the likes of Boris, Gove, Mogg and eyetest man are definitely going to be wading their opinions in on any decisions being made, and I actually feel my heart sink. This lot were doing a great job of fecking up millions of people's lives before covid was even a thing.
I'm sceptical of anything I see about Sweden now. I know a few people who live in Stockholm and they all seem very happy with how Sweden has handled things and say things are basically back to normal there.
The situation is too complex to look at one stream of data and draw conclusions. It doesn't show you the positive effects of not reducing people's quality of life, or how many people haven't died from issues other than covid due to not diverting so much resource. Also ignores the fact that Sweden has a different population density to most of Europe and that their healthcare system is so much better than ours for example that it isn't even comparable....they have never been in danger of hospitals being overun.
Although I also think the "everything's great here" mantra seems a bit wide of the mark given their economy is taking a massive hit and they've still had quite a significant death rate...but again that figure only really gives you any meaningful data once you look at overall death numbers, age range, etc. and compare it to before covid.
That's weird as we keep being told that our track and trace data shows people are mainly catching it from people in their household, but it does kind of make sense.
I caught it back at the begining of March while at Uni. Literally over half of the people on my course managed to catch it at the same time, and that's just going by people who had symptoms. I'm not aware of anyone I passed it on to (symptoms wise)...and at the time it was supposedly impossible to have it unless you'd flown directly back from China, and the symptoms I had (mainly loss of smell) weren't being linked with it, so it's not like I spent 2 weeks locked in a room.
When I think about it now the amount of fecking damage we did and lives we cost during that period of pretending it wasn't in circulation is mad. They must have known that hospital admissions were abnormally high by that point.
Hopefully people will forget their scepticism when a vaccine arrives.
As for vaccine progress I'd say no news is good news and fingers crossed that means we may have one or more vaccines to distribute soon.
Where are you in the world?
I do know that. And that's all fine as long as they can ensure they have no further outbreaks, which clearly, with a virus that is so easily spread and with many showing no symptoms whatsoever, is going to be extremely difficult. It means limiting travel (a massive part of the economy) and still needing the ability to be able to lock down at extremely short notice, and to track and trace in the event of infections being identified.
They have, arguably done a good job. But it's not over by a long stretch.
Serbia. Most of the Slavic countries seem to share this attitude.
Yes. I've always found that a bit weird as people from that region are often very straightforward in other respects - no bullshit.
I really enjoyed Belgrade and the Serbian people when I was there and I really hope vaccine resistance doesn't prevent the country from recovering from the pandemic.
I saw a graph yesterday that showed that the hospitality sector only accounted for 4% of COVID infections in the UK. Nursing homes, schools and offices were the main contributors.
If these figures are accurate (supposedly they were from the governments website) then closing pubs and restaurants is going to make almost no difference. Thoughts?
If these figures are accurate (supposedly they were from the governments website) then closing pubs and restaurants is going to make almost no difference. Thoughts?
The counter balance to that us the UK were neither the first to close pubs a little early, nor the last. Believing just the UK government are idiots is one thing but it's more than a stretch to say all of these big European countries are. It is a normal policy, with obvious imperfections.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Just reading social media these past few weeks and the tide is definitely turning from most being very responsible and keeping themselves and others safe to people having had enough with no end in sight.
A couple of friends on Facebook are proper anti-vaxxers and pro Trump even though they are from the UK They seem to be getting more and more people agreeing with them and their comments whereas a few months ago there was hardly anyone.
The Cummings episode really didn’t help in the early days.
A couple of friends on Facebook are proper anti-vaxxers and pro Trump even though they are from the UK They seem to be getting more and more people agreeing with them and their comments whereas a few months ago there was hardly anyone.
The Cummings episode really didn’t help in the early days.
So you're happy to ignore actual statistical facts, in favour of a minute amount of anecdotal evidence? Very normal.
I don't understand the on again off again push for herd immunity when it seems that people can get reinfected (over a space of months and not just virus appearing mildly in subsequent retests) and the stress it will cause for health systems if rules are relaxed a lot more. I have no scientific background and I rely on the advice from experts to inform me but I think there might be a need to dispel this idea that we should just let the virus take it's course.
Boris Johnson's 10 May speech to the nation, the ditching of "stay home, protect NHS and save lives" message and Cummings episode is where it went wrong for government messaging
Whats the latest in china? We'll that is being released to the world
The figures aren't inaccurate but they are misleading.
They come from here, if you're referring to this article or similar. They rely on the data on page 16, figure 20 in the PHE report.
In total it shows of the ~ 550 covid incidents they were able to trace in Week 39 (week ending 27th September), only a tiny proportion were linked back to pubs and restaurants.
But in Week 39 there were ~ 30,000 cases as per figure 1, page 2.
They don't explain how many cases arise from each incident, but if we assumed an average of 10 cases per incident, that would account for 5,500 cases or represent less than 1 in 5 cases.
So pubs and restaurants could represent just 4% of traced cases but 40% of all cases. Which is why they are using sources beyond contact tracing like this report from the CDC, which says people who have the virus were twice as likely to have dined out than those who haven't. The difference is so significant that it suggests social activities have a significant impact on the virus spread. This gives an insight into how:
Bloody hell figures for ireland today
1012 new cases.
90
1012 new cases.
90
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
Agree with this article, excellent read.
I would add a word of caution about the vaccines.
While we have good reason to believe one of the vaccines will start getting widely distributed early in 2021, it may not be a smallpox vaccine and likely will have lower efficacy. Good enough to stop super spreading but not good enough to prevent the disease from staying endemic in the population for the next decade.
Agree with this article, excellent read.
Well it doesn't help when a well traveled celebrity like Novak shares the same attitude.
I would add a word of caution about the vaccines.
While we have good reason to believe one of the vaccines will start getting widely distributed early in 2021, it may not be a smallpox vaccine and likely will have lower efficacy. Good enough to stop super spreading but not good enough to prevent the disease from staying endemic in the population for the next decade.
It’s nearly 2k on the full island
Well yeah
But what about the numbers in Malmo (Skäne)!??
If Ireland isnt in level 5 in 2 weeks then its bordering on negligence.
Any later and I cant see a Christmas for us and itll be the last Christmas for a lot of people with older relatives simply because a lot of younger people have decided to sacrifice them.
Any later and I cant see a Christmas for us and itll be the last Christmas for a lot of people with older relatives simply because a lot of younger people have decided to sacrifice them.
I wont argue that tweet, but...
The first and last points are really sad for us living here, and a failure without a doubt.
The third point is true, but the reason they went for the strategy they did was not at all to save the economy. This is something that ”fans” of the Swedish model has put on us from the outside. And wrongly so, as the numbers prove.
The second point on the antibodies, this differs very much in Stockholm. Some places have really high antibody numbers, and others(mostly "richer" places) has less people with antibodies. What they see now is that the places that were hit badly in the fall (suburbs outside Stockholm) dont have the same rising in cases as the inner city does.
Another day or 2 of this and NPHET will be proven right, should go to level 5. Not that it will change the behaviour of many unfortunately, like those protesting today.
Just drove past a local Wetherspoons and there must have been a queue of 40 people crowding and waiting to get in.
I didn’t want to chastise younger people or pubs, but this behaviour can not be helping the cause.
I didn’t want to chastise younger people or pubs, but this behaviour can not be helping the cause.
The (slightly) more positive news is that you can see the effect moving to level three had on Dublin. Hopefully that effect kicking in for the rest of the country will make a difference.
I worry about Christmas though.
It's just him you have heard about as he is an international star; the majority of our celebrities actually share the same attitude.
That's what you get when you have a society where people trust singers and sportsmen more than scientists, eh?
Uk figures for today - 81 deaths, 15,166 cases
Do the schools stay open in a level 5
Original plan was yes but they’ve tweaked the wording to give them an option to close. My money’s on a prolonged half term, with a very good chance the schools won’t reopen.
Said that to my wife about a week ago, they will extend Halloween break and see how things progress from there. It would be the sensible thing to do. No way the unions will allow teachers to be at risk if everything else is closed for level 5
They do.
They say that but I don’t think they will, especially with the break coming up. Perfect time to introduce a longer holiday
They don’t. Not necessarily. See above. They changed it earlier this week.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
So what is the benefit of it then? I've seen no data at all that tells me why closing a pub at 10pm helps contain the spread of a virus.
I'm not sure there's a direct comparison with other countries in the way you are implying, seeing as there's been such a vast difference between how well (or badly) different countries in Europe have handled the pandemic and also quite significant differences to the population and density from one country to the next, as well as the culture.
The pub culture in the UK alone for example makes copying what somewhere else has done in regards to pubs/bars and expecting the same results pretty pointless.
I do think it's a near impossible situation for any government to manage and actually look good out of, but I'm very sceptical of any government the fumbles from one strategy to the next, does things like announce there's going to be an announcement in a few days but without actually announcing what the announcement is, and seems to have massive trouble producing any actual scientific data to go with any of it's strategies.
I'd have a lot more confidence in any decision if it didn't constantly seem like they were just stabbing in the dark.