Toaster Toes Timo Werner | Tottenham Player

Brwned said:
He seems to miss a lot of easy chances. Already looks like he's going to be yet another forward that isn't going to be able to lock down that #9 spot.
Click to expand...

Werner has always missed big chances, I think he missed something like 21 last season. However, the trick with him is that he gets himself into so many great positions that he still scores and assist a ton. At the moment he is on course for a 20+ goal season with 10+ assits, that is a very good season.

Only problem may be is if Chelsea fans think he is a No.9, he is actually more of a LWF/SS.
 
Dave Smith said:
Werner has always missed big chances, I think he missed something like 21 last season. However, the trick with him is that he gets himself into so many great positions that he still scores and assist a ton. At the moment he is on course for a 20+ goal season with 10+ assits, that is a very good season.

Only problem may be is if Chelsea fans think he is a No.9, he is actually more of a LWF/SS.
Click to expand...
Buy haaland ? L0L
Its good we got so many options tbh.
 
Dave Smith said:
Werner has always missed big chances, I think he missed something like 21 last season. However, the trick with him is that he gets himself into so many great positions that he still scores and assist a ton. At the moment he is on course for a 20+ goal season with 10+ assits, that is a very good season.

Only problem may be is if Chelsea fans think he is a No.9, he is actually more of a LWF/SS.
Click to expand...

Agreed he'll be a good signing and he definitely helps open up the pitch for Chelsea and creates good chances for himself through movement alone. I was just surprised how often be messed up easy chances. Might be what separates him from being among the best. I don't know if he was signed in the hope that he was a #9, and his versatility was clearly a valuable factor, but ultimately that's where the highest gap is. Pulisic and Ziyech are among the best in their positions while Giroud and Abraham are nowhere near that. He looks better than Havertz at this stage but I imagine he's expected to become an elite #10 too. Leaves space tight for Werner when everyone's fit and on form.
 
Werner has been outperforming his xG over the last seasons so the notion that he "misses chances" is not true and just selection bias.

And Robert Lewandowski, arguably the world's best striker, has underperformed his. Is he a bad finisher now? You'd be much better off judging strikers by the chances they get themselves into in the first place.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Werner has been outperforming his xG over the last seasons so the notion that he "misses chances" is not true and just selection bias.

And Robert Lewandowski, arguably the world's best striker, has underperformed his. Is he a bad finisher now? You'd be much better off judging strikers by the chances they get themselves into in the first place.
Click to expand...

The issue with Werner are that there will be periods where he will be underperforming his xG for a string of games, and then suddenly find his form again and go on a scoring run, outperforming is xG.

It seems he's into a slight slump period though we will see in future games if he can continue to score. Once thing though is that he's continuing to create goals, that was underrated aspect people outside of the BL weren't focusing on when he was signed, he created plenty of goals for Leipzeg last season (for a striker) and so it's no surprise to see him continue to do so for Chelsea.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Werner has been outperforming his xG over the last seasons so the notion that he "misses chances" is not true and just selection bias.

And Robert Lewandowski, arguably the world's best striker, has underperformed his. Is he a bad finisher now? You'd be much better off judging strikers by the chances they get themselves into in the first place.
Click to expand...

Perhaps it's the quality of chances he's missed, rather than the number of them. He's missed 4 genuine sitters in the last 2 games, but as others have said, his performances and chance creations have mostly remained at a really high level.
 
hasanejaz88 said:
The issue with Werner are that there will be periods where he will be underperforming his xG for a string of games, and then suddenly find his form again and go on a scoring run, outperforming is xG.
Click to expand...

As does any striker, by definition. I would need to see some strong evidence that this issue is more pronounced with Werner. And even then I'm not sure it would make sense to read anything into it as it might just be random variation.

WeePat said:
Perhaps it's the quality of chances he's missed, rather than the number of them. He's missed 4 genuine sitters in the last 2 games, but as others have said, his performances and chance creations have mostly remained at a really high level.
Click to expand...

Which four sitters are those? I just looked at the shots he has taken in his last two games games (two against Newcastle and two against Rennes) and only two of them were 'big' chances for a combined xG of roughly 1.25. 0.75 for the one against Rennes and 0.5 for the one against Newcastle are fair estimations I think (StatsBomb have all four shots at 1.6 xG total for what it's worth). So him not scoring any of them is perhaps unlikely but hardly anything significant. I would be careful with the word 'sitter' in general and it is definitely overused by pundits on TV. It creates the illusion that those were 100% chances (no such thing exists) and now people think Werner should have scored four goals from those four attempts.
 
Last edited:
Pagh Wraith said:
Which four sitters are those? I just looked at the shots he has taken in his last two games games (two against Newcastle and two against Rennes) and only two of them were 'big' chances for a combined xG of roughly 1.25. 0.75 for the one against Rennes and 0.5 for the one against Newcastle are fair estimations I think (StatsBomb have all four shots at 1.6 xG total for what it's worth). So him not scoring any of them is perhaps unlikely but hardly anything significant. I would be careful with the word 'sitter' in general and it is definitely overused by pundits on TV. It creates the illusion that those were 100% chances (no such thing exists) and now people think Werner should have scored four goals from those four attempts.
Click to expand...

Sitter is just used interchangeably with big chance, and the one against Newcastle and two against Rennes were big chances in my eyes, (do statsbomb record it as a chance missed by Werner if he tried to pass it instead of shooting?). If you just have the keeper in front you and it's a favourable angle, which at least 3 of the 4 were, then it's it will be difficult to convince me those weren't big chances.

I'm not saying this as a slight on Werner - he plays for my team and I'm extremely satisfied with his performance and production so far.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Werner has been outperforming his xG over the last seasons so the notion that he "misses chances" is not true and just selection bias.

And Robert Lewandowski, arguably the world's best striker, has underperformed his. Is he a bad finisher now? You'd be much better off judging strikers by the chances they get themselves into in the first place.
Click to expand...

This relies on the premise that expected goals are a good measure of the quality of chances. Of course that is a greatly disputed claim.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
As does any striker, by definition. I would need to see some strong evidence that this issue is more pronounced with Werner. And even then I'm not sure it would make sense to read anything into it as it might just be random variation.



Which four sitters are those? I just looked at the shots he has taken in his last two games games (two against Newcastle and two against Rennes) and only two of them were 'big' chances for a combined xG of roughly 1.25. 0.75 for the one against Rennes and 0.5 for the one against Newcastle are fair estimations I think (StatsBomb have all four shots at 1.6 xG total for what it's worth). So him not scoring any of them is perhaps unlikely but hardly anything significant. I would be careful with the word 'sitter' in general and it is definitely overused by pundits on TV. It creates the illusion that those were 100% chances (no such thing exists) and now people think Werner should have scored four goals from those four attempts.
Click to expand...
Or fans can use their eyes? If a Chelsea fan is saying he missed four sitters then numbers on a sheet arent going to be a convincing argument otherwise
 
I still think he’s pretty average and nothing he has showed so far indicates there’s an absolute top player in there. He will do well to get to Vardy level, a decent pace merchant who grabs a good amount of goals.
 
WeePat said:
Sitter is just used interchangeably with big chance, and the one against Newcastle and two against Rennes were big chances in my eyes, (do statsbomb record it as a chance missed by Werner if he tried to pass it instead of shooting?). If you just have the keeper in front you and it's a favourable angle, which at least 3 of the 4 were, then it's it will be difficult to convince me those weren't big chances.

I'm not saying this as a slight on Werner - he plays for my team and I'm extremely satisfied with his performance and production so far.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately individual shot data from StatsBomb is not freely available (only cumultative for each player) and Werner's output was 0.6 xG against Newcastle and 1.0 against Rennes so we can deduct the probability for each shot from that. Only shots are recorded. Another source I use (by a guy who watches and records every single shot manually and whose xG numbers match goals scored to a tee) has Werner's shots against Newcastle at 0.15 and 0.35. I'm pretty sure you thought those numbers would be higher. And so did I in fairness, particular the second one.

This is why it's dangerous to trust what we think we have seen. We are all biased to some degree, by club allegiance, by what we hear from pundits or by our own memory because we have seen similar shots being scored in the past, maybe even by the same player. In general fans and pundits vastly overrate the likelihood of chances being scored. Think of how often they say on TV "oh he should have scored that" after a header from 10 yards out which is ridiculous (which header even has an xG above 0.30). If we went by that we would be seeing three or four times as many goals in reality. Shooting from an angle, being under defensive pressure and even being a further yard out dramatically decrease the chance of a goal happening. That's why I don't like the term sitter even if we use it meaning 'big chance'.

I agree with your last sentence. I don't think Werner is world class (whatever that means) but I said in the summer that for 50m he is an absolute no-brainer purchase for Chelsea and will be a very good player for them


cyberman said:
Or fans can use their eyes? If a Chelsea fan is saying he missed four sitters then numbers on a sheet arent going to be a convincing argument otherwise
Click to expand...

Yes, let's ignore hard evidence and go by what someone claims to have seen (see above). Someone also tried to tell me recently that Arteta has improved Arsenal because he 'trusts his eyes' when all data points to the contrary.

I have also 'seen' those four chances by Werner, infact I looked at each one of them again before posting. And he did not miss four sitters, that is just factually incorrect. Saying he missed two big chances? Fair enough although, again, I would not be reading anything into that.

Here is the still image of Werner's first shot against Newcastle:



Roughly 16 yards from goal, at an angle (hard to get past the goalkeeper from there) and under pressure from two defenders. This just isn't a big chance. He actually did pretty well to place it in the far corner but the keeper got a hand to it resulting in a corner.
 
Last edited:
TrustInJanuzaj said:
I still think he’s pretty average and nothing he has showed so far indicates there’s an absolute top player in there. He will do well to get to Vardy level, a decent pace merchant who grabs a good amount of goals.
Click to expand...
This is selling Vardy short. He is better than you make him out to be and every striker bar a couple of them would be happy with his level.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
As does any striker, by definition. I would need to see some strong evidence that this issue is more pronounced with Werner. And even then I'm not sure it would make sense to read anything into it as it might just be random variation.



Which four sitters are those? I just looked at the shots he has taken in his last two games games (two against Newcastle and two against Rennes) and only two of them were 'big' chances for a combined xG of roughly 1.25. 0.75 for the one against Rennes and 0.5 for the one against Newcastle are fair estimations I think (StatsBomb have all four shots at 1.6 xG total for what it's worth). So him not scoring any of them is perhaps unlikely but hardly anything significant. I would be careful with the word 'sitter' in general and it is definitely overused by pundits on TV. It creates the illusion that those were 100% chances (no such thing exists) and now people think Werner should have scored four goals from those four attempts.
Click to expand...
Do you know what the problem with those stats are? They don’t take account of the fact that he had a simple one on one with the keeper but didn’t shoot. Instead he played an awful square pass straight to a Newcastle defender. Great opportunity missed but won’t be shown by those stats.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Unfortunately individual shot data from StatsBomb is not freely available (only cumultative for each player) and Werner's output was 0.6 xG against Newcastle and 1.0 against Rennes so we can deduct the probability for each shot from that. Only shots are recorded. Another source I use (by a guy who watches and records every single shot manually and whose xG numbers match goals scored to a tee) has Werner's shots against Newcastle at 0.15 and 0.35. I'm pretty sure you thought those numbers would be higher. And so did I in fairness, particular the second one.

This is why it's dangerous to trust what we think we have seen. We are all biased to some degree, by club allegiance, by what we hear from pundits or by our own memory because we have seen similar shots being scored in the past, maybe even by the same player. In general fans and pundits vastly overrate the likelihood of chances being scored. Think of how often they say on TV "oh he should have scored that" after a header from 10 yards out which is ridiculous (which header even has an xG above 0.30). If we went by that we would be seeing three or four times as many goals in reality. Shooting from an angle, being under defensive pressure and even being a further yard out dramatically decrease the chance of a goal happening. That's why I don't like the term sitter even if we use it meaning 'big chance'.

I agree with your last sentence. I don't think Werner is world class (whatever that means) but I said in the summer that for 50m he is an absolute no-brainer purchase for Chelsea and will be a very good player for them




Yes, let's ignore hard evidence and go by what someone claims to have seen (see above). Someone also tried to tell me recently that Arteta has improved Arsenal because he 'trusts his eyes' when all data points to the contrary.

I have also 'seen' those four chances by Werner, infact I looked at each one of them again before posting. And he did not miss four sitters, that is just factually incorrect. Saying he missed two big chances? Fair enough although, again, I would not be reading anything into that.

Here is the still image of Werner's first shot against Newcastle:



Roughly 16 yards from goal, at an angle (hard to get past the goalkeeper from there) and under pressure from two defenders. This just isn't a big chance. He actually did pretty well to place it in the far corner but the keeper got a hand to it resulting in a corner.
Click to expand...

In fairness, when I mentioned two big chances against Newcastle, that one definitely wasn't one of them.

This was one:

127681400_729721244611105_7272319068988527579_n.png


I can't find the other one, but he was clean through on goal and decided to pass it Ziyech, it was intercepted but it was a poor pass anyway.
 
Acrobat7 said:
This is selling Vardy short. He is better than you make him out to be and every striker bar a couple of them would be happy with his level.
Click to expand...
Not at all. Vardy is a good striker but he’s a level below the likes of Kane, Aguero etc who are the top top strikers in the league. Werner is a level below Vardy again in my book, so he has along way to be top striker.
 
TrustInJanuzaj said:
Not at all. Vardy is a good striker but he’s a level below the likes of Kane, Aguero etc who are the top top strikers in the league. Werner is a level below Vardy again in my book, so he has along way to be top striker.
Click to expand...
Hasn't Vardy been putting up similar numbers to Kane and Aguero recently?
 
TrustInJanuzaj said:
Do you think he’s as good?
Click to expand...
I may not but then again Vardy's numbers speak for themselves.
As a Striker, his first and foremost job is to score goals and one has to admit he is so very reliable in that department, and yet he's doing it in a weaker team.

I think, because of his style he's automatically deemed inferior to them, but if we judge them on "what" they produce rather than "how" they produce, you'd have to say that he is in their category.
 
TrustInJanuzaj said:
Not at all. Vardy is a good striker but he’s a level below the likes of Kane, Aguero etc who are the top top strikers in the league. Werner is a level below Vardy again in my book, so he has along way to be top striker.
Click to expand...
This is basically what i wrote so i don’t think we disagree.
 
He played more often as LW than as a 9 if I am not wrong so far this season.

I think he is a fantastic player. He can dribble, has incredible pace ( with and without ball), most importantly can create chances by himself.He was kinda wasteful in the last games, but to pretend that this is the standard is just straight dumb.

He averaged 20+ goals and 10+ assists in the last 4 seasons in a top 4 league as LW/Striker. He scored 34 goals in 45 games last season ( 13 assists on top ) Doesnt matter which league, this is impressive.

18 CL games, 10 goals in his career.


He is on track to have 25+ goals 10+ assits in his first season in a new league and team. Also won 4 penalties already.

I would love to have him here.
 
Last edited:
I still think he will really flourish and bag even more when we use him as the main striker. And once Pulisic, Havertz and Ziyech are all fully fit, Werner will go upfront
 
Hansinity said:
He played more often as LW than as a 9 if I am not wrong so far this season.

I think he is a fantastic player. He can dribble, has incredible pace ( with and without ball), most importantly can create chances by himself.He was kinda wasteful in the last games, but to pretend that this is the standard is just straight dumb.

He averaged 20+ goals and 10+ assists in the last 4 seasons in a top 4 league as LW/Striker. He scored 34 goals in 45 games last season ( 13 assists on top ) Doesnt matter which league, this is impressive.

18 CL games, 10 goals in his career.


He is on track to have 25+ goals 10+ assits in his first season in a new league and team. Also won 4 penalties already.

I would love to have him here.
Click to expand...

I agree, all the signs point to him being very prolific for us for the next couple of years.
 
Hansinity said:
He played more often as LW than as a 9 if I am not wrong so far this season.

I think he is a fantastic player. He can dribble, has incredible pace ( with and without ball), most importantly can create chances by himself.He was kinda wasteful in the last games, but to pretend that this is the standard is just straight dumb.

He averaged 20+ goals and 10+ assists in the last 4 seasons in a top 4 league as LW/Striker. He scored 34 goals in 45 games last season ( 13 assists on top ) Doesnt matter which league, this is impressive.

18 CL games, 10 goals in his career.


He is on track to have 25+ goals 10+ assits in his first season in a new league and team. Also won 4 penalties already.

I would love to have him here.
Click to expand...

This is essentially what I was saying, but you have said it in a much better way. Werner is a striker/wf who creates masses of chances for himself and consequently can get serious numbers despite the poor misses/passes. Further, the kid is 24 a new to the league, yet is still on course for 20+ goals and 10+ assists and that doesn't include the pens he has won (4 so far.)

For sure, he isn't the prettiest on the eye and some of the chances he fluffs are confusing considering his talent. However, even with that waste fulness he is still putting out figures that place him in the top 15% of attackers across the top five leagues.

Put it this way, if he does start to become more efficient and less wasteful he would be capable of getting close to putting up Messi/CR7 figures.

Personally, I do not think will do this, but I am confused how people are getting so hung up on his misses when he output is very solid.
 
Only thing missing from his game is his passing ability, both long and short. It always seems to alternate between overhit or undercooked which creates the impression that hes having a bad game esp if he doesn't get on the scoresheet, when in actual fact he does most other basics right,sprinkled with a moment of magic here or there. He just needs to work on his passing which is hurting his link-up play and he's golden imo.
 
People using expected goals as a way to highlight how good Werner has been are inherently incorrect, both to use xG in this manner and in saying it shows him as a player over performing.
xG is not designed to be used over a small section of games, but over a long period of time.

It's clear from his performances he is still settling in at Chelsea, can't say I've seen too much to suggest he will be an incredible signing, buy certainly he will for sure get goals in that team.
 
Mount's Goatieson said:
Only thing missing from his game is his passing ability, both long and short. It always seems to alternate between overhit or undercooked which creates the impression that hes having a bad game esp if he doesn't get on the scoresheet, when in actual fact he does most other basics right,sprinkled with a moment of magic here or there. He just needs to work on his passing which is hurting his link-up play and he's golden imo.
Click to expand...

Yeah I thought the same regarding his passing, his pass appreciation is a little off at times and can sometimes kill the flow, especially when dealing with a defensive team and trying to play quickly. I’m basing this just on his time at Chelsea as I never saw him in the bundesliga.

Other than that though I think he’s done well, not always easy to adapt to a new league but he’s showing a lot of promise.
 
He's not a very good finisher is he? Thank God we bought Jota instead. Our scouting is mint.
 
Pace merchant. Will leave Chelsea within 3 years.
 
He's having some trouble finishing chances at the moment but that's okay, he'll find his way to 20+ goals and 10+ assists for the season. He produced a great assist up at Newcastle, when he struggled with his own chances, and he's done the same tonight. Great player, the goals will start to flow soon enough.
 
duffer said:
18 games, 8 goals and 6 assists (mostly) from the wing.

Good signing so far.
Click to expand...

Decent return. Doesn't pass the eyeball test for me though, which I know isn't scientific but just my feel. He's incredibly uncomfortable on his left, which makes him pretty predictable. Was certainly expecting him to look much better.
 
Werner, harvetz, ziyech, pulisic =£220m worth of talent but their biggest threat in forward is Giroud. What an underrated striker he is.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.