SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Hmmm... one of the responses makes sense to me. You might stimulate polyclonal antibodies with a vaccine but these will all bind to specific sites on the virus i.e. the antigens presented by the vaccine. If we get significant mutations in those sites, then the vaccine(s) stops working.
Of course, this has nothing to do with the new strain where we have no evidence at all that the mutations are relevant to vaccine efficacy.
Stupid or uneducated question if anyone can answer it.
the new strain of virus is 70% more infectious, what does that mean and how do they get the percentage.
does it last on surfaces longer or linger in the air longer or is it simply if you had coronavirus on your hands and rubbed your nose you may not catch the virus, this new strain has a 70% more chance of you catching it with a COVID hand. Sounds funny but hope makes sense.
the new strain of virus is 70% more infectious, what does that mean and how do they get the percentage.
does it last on surfaces longer or linger in the air longer or is it simply if you had coronavirus on your hands and rubbed your nose you may not catch the virus, this new strain has a 70% more chance of you catching it with a COVID hand. Sounds funny but hope makes sense.
The 70% is based on mathematical models of how fast they predicted the virus would spread vs how fast it actually spread.
Re the second part of your question, they have no idea! A few theories about how this new strain might find it easier to bind to/get into cells in your body but pure speculation at this stage.
The whole thing is based on identifying this new strain, realising it has infected a shit load of people very quickly and working backwards from there. I’m still convinced that the main reason it infected a shitload of people very quickly is because a shitload of people behaved recklessly when the Christmas run-in coincided with giddiness about the imminent vaccine.
Anyone that doesn’t have SiRed on ignore by now, needs their head wobbling.
This article was sent to me by a newbie @scottishred and they are unable to post.
It's about the Oxford vaccine and how many doses. India preparing the same one surprised me slightly
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.bu...et-clearance-by-year-end-report/1/425438.html
It's about the Oxford vaccine and how many doses. India preparing the same one surprised me slightly
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.bu...et-clearance-by-year-end-report/1/425438.html
But it's become the dominant version
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It must be doing something better than the other version of it wouldn't have beaten it so severely.
I know people will say they were saying that about the Spanish version - but they weren't really - there was some speculation but also it was just trackable over time
This is different.
It's not like 1 day after this version appeared everyone in the south east had this version.
Thanks for the clear reply and can definitely agree to your last part about causing a spike in cases too.
I notice public behaviour at the moment far more relaxed and casual than what it was in first lockdown when people took the distancing seriously when out and about, and we’re in a more contagious period of time during the winter.
weather hasn’t helped, it was great in the summer with everyone queuing in the sun outside stores with the novelty of waiting your turn to go inside, now it’s pissing down and people just want in
Don’t forget that the vast majority of people out there have never been infected so there are enormous numbers of potential hosts for it to rip through, given half a chance. This isn’t the same thing as a new strain of virus that has been endemic for years and suddenly starts to become dominant over other preexisting strains. All it takes is a few super spreaders and a lot of foolish behaviour for exponential growth to take care of the rest.
I’m definitely in the camp that we err on the side of caution and the steps taken in the UK (and everywhere else) are justified but I’m fairly confident we’ll eventually conclude this strain ended up becoming so dominant mainly because it was in the right place at the right time. That’s speculation on my part, mind you. Time will tell.
Why? Have you no will power that you need a function?
I'm not really up to date with German media but I don't think the penny has dropped yet .
Got back from Heathrow this afternoon and got my wife on the Qatar plane. Will land in Doha and then on to Karachi in the morning. The official Pakistani statement says the flight ban from UK starts at midnight on Tuesday. Which means my wife should just make the cut for arrivals. It's a compassionate trip, not a holiday. But there was no shortage of holiday makers queuing up for flights at terminal 5.
Do you know if this applies to the Oxford vaccine as well?
See, I can understand that might happen at the start.
Like with the Spanish variant - it reaches a Spanish night club and suddenly British tourists are bringing it back from Spain. And they are young, likely to be asymptomatic. They brought it back, it spread amongst the young.
But to become so dominant, albeit the graph I showed is just from Milton Keynes Lighthouse Laboratory...
What’s the worst that could happen?
Agree. It’s not suddenly become measles. I’m not sure where that 70% stat came, seems plucked from thin air with no decent evidence behind it. I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually we find out the changes in this variants transmissibility are marginal, but I can definitely see why they are concerned after looking at the genomics and epidemiology. The idea that it evolved in an immunosuppressed person makes me think we need to be giving those people monoclonals and keeping them in negative pressure rooms with space suits instead of normal PPE.
Here in Sweden police had to intervene during a party hosting 250 people the other day.
And by intervene, I mean strongly advise them to stop the party, because the Swedish legislation doesn't allow them to do more. No wonder we're fecked here
If I were a legislator I'd have them fined or put in prison for such blatant disregard for other people's health (I mean, knowingly transmitting HIV without telling the other part is punishable by prison) and then have them pay the money that their hospital stay costs themselves if they end up there, which is about £350/day in a regular ward and ten times that in the ICU. Why am I supposed to pay with my tax money for people who obviously don't give a shit about the pandemic?
Absolutely. Also makes me wonder if they should jump the vaccination queue (assuming they’re immune competent enough to respond)
We have that every weekend, death penalty would put a stop to it. I would be so happy.Here in Sweden police had to intervene during a party hosting 250 people the other day.
And by intervene, I mean strongly advise them to stop the party, because the Swedish legislation doesn't allow them to do more. No wonder we're fecked here
If I were a legislator I'd have them fined or put in prison for such blatant disregard for other people's health (I mean, knowingly transmitting HIV without telling the other part is punishable by prison) and then have them pay the money that their hospital stay costs themselves if they end up there, which is about £350/day in a regular ward and ten times that in the ICU. Why am I supposed to pay with my tax money for people who obviously don't give a shit about the pandemic?
So looking at that chart the fact it's winning out over the other variant is a given.
Is it causing more cases than would have otherwise been seen? Or is it replacing other variants?
The claims would suggest the former but then why has the number of cases involving previously known variants reduced so significantly?
Well the government's chief science advisor has quite literally told us all today that the mutated version of the virus is in all areas of the country, that there'll be a spike in cases due to the "inevitable" Christmas mixing, and that tougher restrictions will follow as a result.
So basically you can expect case numbers to rocket up in a lot of areas over the next few weeks and then the government to snap into action after it's too late to do anything about it, acting as if it's some kind of unforseen surprise, even though clearly it wont be.
And then it will probably be the people's fault for not sticking to guidelines that for most of them inexplicably aren't even due to be in place yet, or something.
We were told today that its 1,179 cases per 100,000 in our area now. It was 800 odd only a few days ago, 500 odd the week before. 300 odd the week before that. Nothing meaningful was done until 2 days ago despite the alarm bell being rung for weeks, and now cases will carry on spiking here until Christmas is out of the way as people were given no time at all to adjust plans. I'm back to helping out with medicine and food delivery from tomorrow because they've allowed it to get to a stage again where the support systems can't cope, despite making that mistake in March and having the data available this time to have avoided it. I suspect this is going to get quite bad.
The government has aimed for the bare minimum of the NHS not complately running out of capacity, and they're in very severe danger now of failing to even achieve that in large areas of the country, and yet still failing to heed the warning from their own advisor for the areas where there is still time to do something about it.
So basically you can expect case numbers to rocket up in a lot of areas over the next few weeks and then the government to snap into action after it's too late to do anything about it, acting as if it's some kind of unforseen surprise, even though clearly it wont be.
And then it will probably be the people's fault for not sticking to guidelines that for most of them inexplicably aren't even due to be in place yet, or something.
We were told today that its 1,179 cases per 100,000 in our area now. It was 800 odd only a few days ago, 500 odd the week before. 300 odd the week before that. Nothing meaningful was done until 2 days ago despite the alarm bell being rung for weeks, and now cases will carry on spiking here until Christmas is out of the way as people were given no time at all to adjust plans. I'm back to helping out with medicine and food delivery from tomorrow because they've allowed it to get to a stage again where the support systems can't cope, despite making that mistake in March and having the data available this time to have avoided it. I suspect this is going to get quite bad.
The government has aimed for the bare minimum of the NHS not complately running out of capacity, and they're in very severe danger now of failing to even achieve that in large areas of the country, and yet still failing to heed the warning from their own advisor for the areas where there is still time to do something about it.
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A friend is a GP and said Monday she will get getting the vaccine to give out, will she be getting it??... Eerrh no.
Because why would the people trained to give this vaccine out, need protection? Idiots the lot of them.
Because why would the people trained to give this vaccine out, need protection? Idiots the lot of them.
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I don't think they know for sure that it is more infectious, much less 70% more infectious. The 70% figure seems to be primarily so that Boris cango into locking without admitting he should have done so a long time ago.
There are concerns that some genetic changes may make it more infectious but we aren't sure yet.
https://amp.9news.com.au/article/63439cea-1e05-4d48-aceb-3a39ed7f9dcb
Yet despite their deadly incompetence they will get voted in again
It is being bigged up beyond the evidence so that Boris can do what he should have done a long time ago. And it might well turn out that it is far more infectious but we are still collecting the data but based on quite valid concerns.
Why would a Tory government want to restrict you more than necessary when their instincts is to do the opposite?
Only a conspiracy theory nut would think it is "because control" for "reason".
Seriously? Let people die because of some ill formulated idea about "freedom". Apart from the ethics of letting people die you do realise that your idiotic plan would produce the exact opposite as the death rate would surge as hospitals were overwhelmed. At least we might have a use for all of those refrigerated trucks stuck in Kent I suppose.
Except you are risking other people's lives. I'm sure you must know that.
Saw that WHO said vaccine is still good for the strain.
But a bit pissed it's referred to the "UK strain". Only Boris could want to take claim of a virus to cover the fact he over promised and didn't want to look worse..... and think it was a good idea. The fecking moron
But a bit pissed it's referred to the "UK strain". Only Boris could want to take claim of a virus to cover the fact he over promised and didn't want to look worse..... and think it was a good idea. The fecking moron
That's a very sticky situation. Agree with samsky's advice. Try contacting your local authorities, these being such extraordinary circumstances maybe they'll extend the visa. Although I know immigration services in the UK are a bitch to deal with.
So, apparently it isn't a new strain, just a new variant. There is a difference, but don't ask me what it is. Yet, most websites call it a new strain. Can someone shed some light on this?
https://ewn.co.za/2020/12/21/covid-19-here-s-the-difference-between-a-variant-and-a-strain
https://ewn.co.za/2020/12/21/covid-19-here-s-the-difference-between-a-variant-and-a-strain
Can't remember a formal definition, but informally both terms are used interchangeably in my microbio lab. Especially given that we're dealing with a virus here, I can't imagine a difference, an the article doesn't get into it. From that article, the way the professor is talking, a strain seems to be a variant with more changes than a normal variant?
From what I read there is no widely agreed definition as to what constitutes a new virus strain, so strain and varient seem to be used interchangeably. I could be wrong of course.
@Pogue Mahone @Tony Babangida @berbatrick - any info re. strain vs variant?
Edit: just seen that @berbatrick has already answered.
The Oxford vaccine presents the spike as well. It's technically different to the Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, J&J designs which all incorporate a change that basically makes the spike show more of its surface when injected into the body. I guess not showing so much surface could mean the Astra Zeneca will have more problems as the virus mutates - but who knows, maybe another difference in the design will mean it does better. All the teams will be testing the new variant in the lab to see how it behaves.
This time, though it's viewed as a big mutation by coronavirus standards, it still only affects a small part of the virus. So the vaccine people aren't expecting problems, even if they are preparing for them.
My understanding is that you can only use strain if the virus has a well defined difference in biology compared to the wild-type. So at this point it is correct to call the new UK lineage a variant, but it could be designated a new strain at some point in the future. Pretty academic but it can be a useful distinction.
Where’s Donald to all it the “Brit Flu”?
So Tories are lying again. 170 is a big difference from 900
Sorry. I really can't understand what this sentence means!
Maybe, but only if the other person is risking their life by being out and about anyway. If everyone is aware of the risks, nobody can complain. Dog eat dog
Because we've been in lockdown
Yep the silence from opposition particularly is deafening.
Don’t be so stupid. Imagine if all the nurses were shielding. Who’s gonna help you if you or a family member need to go to hospital?
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