City are quite rightly favourites, but we're right in the mix. We need to not get carried away and just enjoy it. Nobody expected us to be anywhere near the title this season, and we'd have all taken 'top 4 and closer to the top 2' at the start of the year. Even if we miss out, the squad is clearly getting better and we're looking well placed for the next few years.
How far off is this squad from a title challenge?
- Thread starter jamesjimmybyrondean
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I love data analysis so I'll return to this post later today.
The fun thing about analysis is not always what the data shows, but why the data shows what it does. You can for example extrapolate the GAA at the Home table prior to the team hitting conditioning (similar to Liverpool and Manchester City, all teams that had long European campaigns sufffered the same "lag" to the season) - The Tottenham 6 goals and Crystal Palace 3 goals - 9 in 2 matches - skews this statistic significantly. A mistake is also to assume that numbers are fixed. You need to do periodisation to see trends and utilize background data (player injury, chances created, tactics, goaltender, time between matches, First XI gameweek x,x,x,x) to get a good look at Gameweek 1-4 5-8 - 1-8, etc. Essentially you analyze trends and results down to the microlevel. I guarantee you the datacrunchers at the club are already doing this.
The away statistics paints a different image than the one you're portraying for the overall picture. Anyway, I'll get back to this beacuse I disagree with a lot of what you're implying here, it jiust takes a while to collect the underlying datasets, and I have work.
The bolded part:
Dortmund and Leipzig are both in the Champions Leauge, you are not going to "test their resolve" with a bid in the middle of the season. Upamecano is as important to Leipzig as Van Dijk is to Liverpoo. They're not going to sell him in the middle of the season. And we are not going to introduce 3 or more players into the squad in the middle of the season. Who do you displace? how does it affect group harmony? Will they even mesh? Chelsea spent fantasy money on a squad and they have major issues.
The club does still not have fans in the ground and the covid outbreak is even more rampant than last year because people just can't help themselves. It will be months, and definitely until next season before fans will be allowed back to the stadiums. The monetary loss is enormous. The club has made it abundantly clear that it is not business as usual, Real Madrid and Barcelona in partcular are struggling massively financially. The last thing Manchester United is going to do is take a gamble with the financial stability of a club that employs hundreds.
I get where you are coming from, but it's not something that happens in the real world. This sentence in particular: "If we fail to win a title this year we will have a very good squad of assets that can be sold on". - There is about 5-8 clubs in world football that can buy players and matc the salaries of Manchester United players, especially top earners. 2 of them can't afford to buy players currently, 2 of them are in direct competition in the league so they are out of the picture. So that leaves 4. Oh yeah, and then there's teh question if the player even wants to be sold? We can't just sell players like cattle, they will actually have to want to go anywhere. If we sign a player to a 4 year contract and think "We failed, we have to sell him now". The player can simply say: "I like the lunch at AON, I'll stay 4 years, thanks bye"
But for the sake of argument to cap this off: You're suggesting an investment of: 200~ million euro + salaries. The total value of these packages is going to exceed 500 million euro. That is the investment you're making. 500 million euro allocated in the clubs budget to rush 3 players into the team halfway into a season with no knowing if they can assimilate after a week or two of practice or not. We got so insanely lucky with Bruno. It's not common for players to come in and do so well so fast.
The difference between 1st and 2nd place in terms of price money is just north of £2 million (per placing) - with a larger difference is put on the number of tv games you play in. Otherwise commercial revenue is shared between all clubs, it's why all PL clubs are so relatively wealthy.
The financial priority of a club is first and foremost Champione League. That is the competition where a club and recap its invested value in players.
Everything that follows are sponsor contracts, a few million £ for placing higher in the league (say... a total of £10m over a season compared to 4th place), and increased share value for sporting success.
However Manchester United is already an absolutely enormous club internationally, the commercial growth potential, while there, is a profoundly costly investment.
ROI is king when it comes to investing money. It's even more king when you suggest a investment of 500 million euro because the players play well for other clubs in different leagues. Chelsea bought Kai Havertz for 85 million Euro. He's currently a squad rotational player. What guarantee do we have that Sancho or even Upamecano is going to just slot in the starting XI immediately?
There are so many risks involved in a event like this. You don't bring in 3 players into a squad that's already top of the league to displace players. It's going to wreck the harmony in the group. And the club is not going to risk financial ruin. And none of this was ever realistic and now I spent my lunch typing this.
Addendum: Another quantity that is hard to measure is the degree of perceived improvement in players with success and thus their appreciation as assets for the Glazers. For example, people talk about Pogba being a WC winner (and leader of that squad) and that is a big part of his value.
In club football, TAA and Robertson are rather mediocre full backs but command a reputation and price far in excess of their ability and, therefore, value to others. Owen Hargreaves made a great point
about how Klopp had realized that he had a great forward and back line and no midfielders so converted his fullbacks into playmakers a la No 10s.
The stars like Pogba (and VVDs) of the world will increase a lot in value when they grace teams lucky to have the platform of success but if we invest this January and as a result win the title, the perceived value of the rest of our squad to other clubs will go up more than if we just fall away. We will have PL winners who are “battle-tested” and “know how to win”, just like Liverpool have with their (IMHO) largely mediocre squad.
So, there is an argument about when to invest to really wring value from an asset too. Success lifts many boats and, especially since we have many young players with a lot of remaining potential, investing heavily this month might be a very effective way to really extract all the value from them for future asset sales.
(I would like to just say that this pecuniary way of viewing clubs and players runs counter to how I see football and wish it to be. However, Glazernomics has taken over the only club I will ever love and since green-and-gold protests are quickly forgotten, I thought it might be helpful to craft a strategy that would find currency [pardon the pun] with our bean-counting overlords.)
Its great we are where we are as our attackers haven't got going at all this season. Once they do, we can definitely improve further. Hopefully this happens sooner rather than later and we are definitely in the mix.
Just a lot of positions I'm not convinced of yet we are top of the table.
At RB, we need to make a big call on Wan-Bissaka as he has so many aspects to improve on it may just not be worth it.
At CM, there's just not enough from Fred or McTominay to control games, they are more reactive midfielders than pro-active, there's no real outstanding quality when it comes to on the ball
At LW and RW, at both sides we've struggled to get any kind of form, if it was a case where at least one side was performing well I'd feel confident but neither of them is.
At RB, we need to make a big call on Wan-Bissaka as he has so many aspects to improve on it may just not be worth it.
At CM, there's just not enough from Fred or McTominay to control games, they are more reactive midfielders than pro-active, there's no real outstanding quality when it comes to on the ball
At LW and RW, at both sides we've struggled to get any kind of form, if it was a case where at least one side was performing well I'd feel confident but neither of them is.
Great post- I agree that the more context one can apply to data, the more surgical one’s predictions can be. However, all clubs now have the same data and moneyball-crunchers (approximately, at least the big ones), so there is unlikely to be a competitive advantage there.
At the highest level, data becomes less predictive. Binary events can dominate (e.g. a season ending injury to Bruno kills our title hopes). Genius is unpredictable - How many people could have predicted that Maradona would become good enough to drag Napoli single-handed to the Scudetto? When he arrived I never imagined Cristiano to become as good as he was in the last 3 years with us - what if there is unseen genius in Rashford, Martial, Greenwood or Diallo that starts firing at CR7 levels?
Because data science is only predictive, big audacious moves can win titles and start dynasties. We have a squad that might be on the brink of greatness - I would just like us to make a big move (or three) now to get us there.
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Looking at the italic bolded part only...How exactly is our league position inflated?? Because statistics said so?
The fact remains we are top of the league because we have more points than everyone elese - albeit having played a game more than City who could also be top when parity hits.
Stats like expected goals etc are fine and have their use but when used to claim that a league position is false then they are being used incorrectly. Our expected goals against for example can be misleading due to several long shots the opponent has made during the game - think Liverpool a the weekend, several long shots but no real danger - this sort of game affects the expected goals against stats dramatically. Contect is everything when using stats like expected goals for and against, without it they mean very little. Also they are best used over the course of a season in order to get a clearer indication.
The simple fact remains United have won more points than anyone else at this tage of the season so deserve to be at the top. No stats can belittle that.
Also, we arent buying anyone this Window, no club wants to sell and so prices will still be high with clubs struggling for cash flow, thats the reason theres so many loan deals being mooted.
Ok. So what steps should we take in this window to improve this (great) chance of our squad to be title-winners? No matter how many caveats, we must try and improve somehow - these jammy wins can’t continue forever.
We've scored the second most in the league (36), behind Liverpool by just one goal (37). We've conceded a feckload, though (25). It's obviously been inflated by that Spurs meltdown, but we often look vulnerable at the back in games. Like you said, I think we're desperate for a DM/CM that is able to dictate and control games better. As much as I like Fred's tenacity, you're right in that he's a very reactive player and often contributes to a sense of panic and unease whenever we're holding on in games (which is far too often). We've not lost in ages though which is great and deserves recognition.
It's capable of a title challenge this season but definitely needs some bulking up if we're to win it. Desperate for a capable RW, quick and reliable CB and a prolific striker.
City are the favourites and pretty comfortably IMO. Delighted to even be in the conversation though and we are doing really well.
The squad is in better shape than it has been in years and the players are working hard. We still have 2 or 3 weak links in the squad..... A big upgrade from 6 or 7 weak links 3 years ago.
The Team has gone from something like:
-----------------------------De Gea-------------------------------
Valencia--------Lindelof--------Rojo------------Young
-------------------------------Matic--------------------------------
--------------------------Pogba--------Lingard---------------
Mata------------------------Lukaku----------------------Rashford
Subs - Romero, Pereira, Dalot, Jones, Smalling, Sanchez, Mctom
*Keep in mind that Valencia was past his best at this point and Rashford was a few years younger than he is now.*
To a team something like this:
----------------------------De Gea-----------------------
AWB-----------Bailly--------------Maguire-----------Shaw
-------------------------Fred----------Pogba-------------------
-------------------------------Fernandes---------------------
Rashford-----------------Cavani-------------------------Martial
Subs - Henderson, Telles, Matic, Greenwood, Mctom, Lindelof, VDB
It's a massive squad improvement in a short space of team. Good work by Ole in my opinion.
3 more good summer signings and I'm really hopeful next year.
The squad is in better shape than it has been in years and the players are working hard. We still have 2 or 3 weak links in the squad..... A big upgrade from 6 or 7 weak links 3 years ago.
The Team has gone from something like:
-----------------------------De Gea-------------------------------
Valencia--------Lindelof--------Rojo------------Young
-------------------------------Matic--------------------------------
--------------------------Pogba--------Lingard---------------
Mata------------------------Lukaku----------------------Rashford
Subs - Romero, Pereira, Dalot, Jones, Smalling, Sanchez, Mctom
*Keep in mind that Valencia was past his best at this point and Rashford was a few years younger than he is now.*
To a team something like this:
----------------------------De Gea-----------------------
AWB-----------Bailly--------------Maguire-----------Shaw
-------------------------Fred----------Pogba-------------------
-------------------------------Fernandes---------------------
Rashford-----------------Cavani-------------------------Martial
Subs - Henderson, Telles, Matic, Greenwood, Mctom, Lindelof, VDB
It's a massive squad improvement in a short space of team. Good work by Ole in my opinion.
3 more good summer signings and I'm really hopeful next year.
They’re not jammy wins. Most games where we’ve come from behind, we’ve deserved. Sure we had a nervy last five minutes against Fulham last night, but we dominated the game. Just because we’re not scoring four or five doesn’t mean it’s jammy.
The squad does need improvement though. I think we should take where we are now as a positive, and buy well in the summer. We’re absolutely above where we would have expected to be, this is why Ole keeps talking down title chances whenever he’s asked about it. I think you’ll start to see City really begin to run away with it in 4-6 weeks. Annoying as it is, they are the best team in the league and it will begin to show.
Exactly this. Long time since we were in a genuine title race. Win it or fall short its making for a very exciting season. I'm loving it.
The only 'jammy' win we have had is Brighton in my opinion.
A team doesn't get to top of the league half way through a season without deserving to be there, we have played well in majority of games, can't play well in every game so you need either a bit of luck, moment of magic or just a team ethic to grind out the wins.
In an ideal world I would try and get another defensive minded midfielder in, Ndidi or Zakaria for example, but that isn't going to happen in January and i would rather not go for a stop gap.
Noone expected us to be in this position at this juncture of the season so lets not panic and waste money on potantial signings that may set us back, I would rather play the long game. We have a great chance with or without new signings we need belief, team ethic and workrate from everyone.
This squad is consistency away from a title challenge.
In two years we'll be undoubtedly the best team in England again.
All thanks to Solskjaer who sold a dream of long-termism to Ed Woodward.
Think of the players we have signed under Ole. Most of them won't see the first team for at least another year, maybe two.
We have been planning for the future under Ole.... Anyone giving him shit in the short-term were blinded to how Manchester United have ever had success in the past.
In 2023; Rashford will be 25, Martial will be 27, McTom 26, Henderson, 25; players like Pellestri, Diallo, Jurado, Carreras will have just broken into the team and will be the new Rashfords. We will probably add players like Sancho or Haaland along the way.....
The whole plan has been long-term and sustainability. We didn't wanna just win one league title and that be it - we want LONG-TERM periods challenging for titles.
Ole is doing a STELLAR JOB. All plaudits go to him, But he mostly gets plaudits for this: For changing Ed Woodward from being a short-term thinker, into a long-term strategist. We are no longer desperate. We are calm and calculated and planning for the brightest of futures.
All thanks to Solskjaer who sold a dream of long-termism to Ed Woodward.
Think of the players we have signed under Ole. Most of them won't see the first team for at least another year, maybe two.
We have been planning for the future under Ole.... Anyone giving him shit in the short-term were blinded to how Manchester United have ever had success in the past.
In 2023; Rashford will be 25, Martial will be 27, McTom 26, Henderson, 25; players like Pellestri, Diallo, Jurado, Carreras will have just broken into the team and will be the new Rashfords. We will probably add players like Sancho or Haaland along the way.....
The whole plan has been long-term and sustainability. We didn't wanna just win one league title and that be it - we want LONG-TERM periods challenging for titles.
Ole is doing a STELLAR JOB. All plaudits go to him, But he mostly gets plaudits for this: For changing Ed Woodward from being a short-term thinker, into a long-term strategist. We are no longer desperate. We are calm and calculated and planning for the brightest of futures.
We're the most consistent team in the league currently.We need 1 or 2 top quality players who have experience of winning things. Preferably a centre back and a striker.
Cavani & Pogba have experience of winning things.
Sort out the right wing with a Sancho type and bring in a player in midfield who can control the tempo a little better than what we already have and we’re laughing. An attacking option to support Wan-Bissaka is also required.
The big question is what we do with Pogba and the money he is likely to bring in. Ole needs backed this summer.
The big question is what we do with Pogba and the money he is likely to bring in. Ole needs backed this summer.
A DM and a right winger.
I honestly don't know. Our midfield is still a conundrum. Our style of play is still lethargic. The weight of pass always gets our fans thinking we're going to lose the ball sooner rather than later. There is still no understanding between our players. I see so many of our players pass and stand still without moving forward. What hurts us fans even more is that, we're so stagnant during play. Take the Fulham game for example, if you just take Pogba's highlight package from last night's game you will see that every time he received the ball he looked up and nobody was even moving and so he had to make a safe pass. Bruno on the other hand just makes passes thinking somebody will make a run and they just don't. Ole is just happy because he's now got a pack of players who work tirelessly regardless of the situation which is the first and foremost thing in football. United lacked any kind of effort in the former years under LvG and Jose but under Ole they have transformed into a team that works hard regardless of the form. I've never heard of a United team (even under SAF) that did so well in the away games. We haven't lost a game away in over a year and that's just brilliant. I know Manchester United is known for the comebacks and are fondly known as the comeback kings but this Ole team is the true evaluation to that statement. We still have a lot of work to do in the background but I'm more than certain that with the addition of just 2-3 players, this team can win every trophy there is to win.
My pick of players for this team-
Sancho.
Rice/ Saul/ Camavinga.
Upamecano.
How the team should be played now:
Martial-- Cavani-- Rashford
Pogba (8)-- Bruno(8)
Mctominay(6)
Shaw Maguire Lindelof Bissaka
De Gea
How the team should be played next season:
Rashford Martial Sancho
Pogba/VDB Bruno
Camavinga/Saul
Shaw Maguire Upamecano Bissaka
De Gea
This will be the true evolution of the team and I hope Ole realizes that he needs to play 2 number 8s in midfield and ask his full backs to stay wide and careful. We have a great chance of winning trophies and getting to watch more exciting football from this squad of players.
My pick of players for this team-
Sancho.
Rice/ Saul/ Camavinga.
Upamecano.
How the team should be played now:
Martial-- Cavani-- Rashford
Pogba (8)-- Bruno(8)
Mctominay(6)
Shaw Maguire Lindelof Bissaka
De Gea
How the team should be played next season:
Rashford Martial Sancho
Pogba/VDB Bruno
Camavinga/Saul
Shaw Maguire Upamecano Bissaka
De Gea
This will be the true evolution of the team and I hope Ole realizes that he needs to play 2 number 8s in midfield and ask his full backs to stay wide and careful. We have a great chance of winning trophies and getting to watch more exciting football from this squad of players.
I would go for Saul, someone like Carrick/scholes to control the tempo of the midfield.
Normally I would say 1-2 players - but now I will say 3 months
Cavani is clearly not a long term option.
Pogba's experience hasn't done much for us.
Also Pogba isn't a centre back....
We have a goal keeper that has won stuff.
Also who says you need CB with title winning mentality? City won their title with Kompany, never had that.
Liverpool won the title with Gomez / VVD, none of them had any of that.
We are clearly on an upward trajectory in terms of our squad makeup and age profile, whereas it would appear the current Liverpool side have potentially peaked (This alone pleases me considering how tough it has been these last few seasons). If we finish above city we will win the title IMO. It’s a tough ask but we have to be aiming for it and I guarantee you Ole and the players will be thinking they have a good chance, even if they don’t say it publicly. I don’t always agree with what he says but Dwight Yorke has apparently made a comment “if United aren’t thinking about it now, then they might as well never think about it“ or words to that affect.
Well said. It's clear Ole is using SAF's model of buying young, promising 18/19 year olds to develop and buying expensive, experienced players to fill in gaps to compete and win. This is a sustainable economic model.
Pellestri and Diallo fit the first category
Maguire, AWB, and Bruno fit the second.
Kompany and VVD are infinitely better than any of our centre backs though.
It's fine if you don't agree with me but I just think that our very young squad would benefit from and injection of 2 top players with a really winning mentality - it will help in title run ins and help us win cups rather than fall at the semis.
Really am loving being top of the league at 19 games (true City have a game in hand over us but still). It is such a refreshing change.
Ole deserves massive credit for us being in this position despite the squad building still 1-2 proper windows away. I don't expect to win the title but a legit title challenge which we will probably provide is a massive improvement over last year, despite little new investments.
Ole deserves massive credit for us being in this position despite the squad building still 1-2 proper windows away. I don't expect to win the title but a legit title challenge which we will probably provide is a massive improvement over last year, despite little new investments.
Personly think the squad is good enough to mount a title challenge. I don't think there is this massive gulf in quality between us and Liverpool, I simply think they have been better trained for a much longer period.
City for me still have the best squad, but as we saw last year that doesn't always equate to having the most amount of points.
For me it's all about whether we can keep the consistency which has been the real struggle under Ole. Fernandes has pulled us through for the last year, but now is having a tiny dip in form, but Pogba has stepped up. Whether Pogba can sustain that form is anybody's guess. But with quality, we have there is no reason we shouldn't be able to challenge for the title.
It all comes down how the players handle that and whether Ole and his staff have enough know-how to coax that quality out of the team for a sustained period.
City for me still have the best squad, but as we saw last year that doesn't always equate to having the most amount of points.
For me it's all about whether we can keep the consistency which has been the real struggle under Ole. Fernandes has pulled us through for the last year, but now is having a tiny dip in form, but Pogba has stepped up. Whether Pogba can sustain that form is anybody's guess. But with quality, we have there is no reason we shouldn't be able to challenge for the title.
It all comes down how the players handle that and whether Ole and his staff have enough know-how to coax that quality out of the team for a sustained period.
How is that misleading at all? That's entirely the point of the metric: the more shots you allow in a game, the more likely it is you'll concede, therefore the higher your expected goals against - if they're all low-quality shots with no real danger as you put it, they won't add much to the total.
So now the bar has changed... from we need winners to quality?
I gave you two players who are winners but thats not good enough, its not long term...
Okay so which two players would you say are attainable with winning mentality?
Can someone explain to me what "expected goal difference" and stuff like that are based on? I see Villa being mentioned as having a more "expected goal difference" than us, why is that? This is the same Villa that barely escaped relegation last season, compared to us who finished 3rd.
Just seems like pseudo intellectual mumbo jumbo nonsense to me.
Because we have too many players who are neither winners nor quality.
I said we need a couple of experienced winners in the team, preferably a striker and centre back.
You rightly mentioned two excellent defenders who hadn't won much prior to signing for City and Liverpool. I simply said that of course you make exceptions for talent like that which is clearly an upgrade on what we have.
But the main point stands that our you inexperienced squad would benefit from having a bit more quality and winning experience around.
Top class RW/LW and DM. That's assuming Pogba stays.
I started to understand now why every ex players keep saying Kane or top class proper striker.
This.
It’s not.
I’d rather have them and attackers who can score regularly and win it that way instead.
Just need a striker (Haaland) and a few of the kids like Diallo, Pellestri, Laird ...etc coming good.