In the euphoria of going top of the league at its halfway point, it is important to realise that our
league position is somewhat inflated and we are getting better results than expected. Our actual goal difference is only 11 (36 scored and 25 conceded) ranking us at 5th tied with Aston Villa yet even this outperforms what is
statistically expected. Our
expected goal difference is even worse at 6.1 (32.2 expected goals and 26.1 expected goals against) ranking us at 7th (Aston Villa's expected goal difference is 13, in comparison) . This gives rise to an
expected league position of 7th, below Brighton. These numbers would imply that while we maybe developing the grit to grind out the
odd-goal win, a la championship form, that over time our actual position will regress to the mean expected position as City, Liverpool and Chelsea regain their expected positions and we will fall down the table.
It is also important mid-season (while unexpectedly top of the league) to not lose sight of the reasons that we complain about in every summer transfer window. The fundamental reason for this remain the same - (relative) underinvestment in the squad by the Glazers to value top 4 rather than the title. It is clear that if we actually had gotten Sancho, a starting CDM and maybe a CB in the summer, we would have had a far more resilient squad than the one that seems to be hanging on for dear life to one-goal leads at the likes of Fulham. While we may be caught up in the euphoria of unexpected success (though no trophies have been distributed yet!), this fundamental reason did not disappear once the season started and will likely remain with us while the Glazers own the club.
Our current exalted league position has a risk. Should we fall away this season from the 1st position with a whimper (having tasted unexpected mid-season success), fans will turn on management, top mid-career players like Pogba and Bruno will surely leave and even younger up-and-coming stars like Rashford will consider their futures elsewhere. We will have to again flirt with top-4 non-qualification and the possibility of the next entrant through the manager revolving door replacing Ole. The current Glazer investment strategy has no capability for us to avoid this
very-real possibility.
Rather than complaining about the Glazers, however, this post seeks to outline the benefits of a strategy that may help them and us, the fans. We are currently in an open transfer window, so what if we were to invest the next 2 transfer window funds in this one? We might get more bang for our buck due to Covid pricing and, if there is any financial value to the Glazers from winning a title, surely there can't be a better time to invest in the squad if we are (unexpectedly) top of the league at the half-way point? Investing now will assure fans that the Glazers are interested in winning a title and, if we look at young and up-and-coming talent, will give us more time to bed them in. The cost of this strategy is the financial cost of spending the next 2 transfer window funds 6 months and a year earlier which amounts to half a year's interest on a loan, seemingly not a large price to pay for the benefits.
January is notoriously hard to get good players (Bruno, Vidic and Evra notwithstanding) so we will have to be smart and a bit lucky. Luckily, Dortmund is 10 points behind Bayern now and are certain to lose an underperforming (relatively; this season) Sancho in the summer. What if we gave them a deal they couldn't refuse like 100m - 120m euros to take him now? Lille is in financial trouble now, so what if we bought a CDM like Soumare from Lille for 35m euros? And tested Leipzig's resolve with a 60m euro bid for Upamecano? For the cost of prepaying for 2 transfer windows we would have a squad capable of winning the PL
this season for the first time in 8 years. Having bought youth presciently this summer in preparation for Brexit we could have a settled squad for the next year that would be enhanced by some of the best young talent around as it develops.
This strategy, though with some risk, is entirely rational for the opportunity that we find ourselves in. It, if it succeeds, carries the potential reward of a title that would gain many new young fans (income-generating possibilities) who don't remember Fergie's time of success as well as potentially increasing the valuation for the likes of potential buyers (like the Saudis when they inevitably take another crack at us) in an exit for the Glazers, their only goal. If we fail to win a title this year we will have a very good squad of assets that can be sold on or used to take another crack next year.
What do you all think? If this makes sense, I hope the Glazers read this.