By turning a largely vaccinated population into a fully vaccinated population. We use herd immunity via vaccination to suppress diseases like measles. We could achieve the same aim by allowing measles to spread and kill thousands of people. But we don’t because that would be madness.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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My guess, there's not enough mRNA to double vax them all in July/August. They will probably do to 16/17 year olds though, plus younger ones in households with someone who is immune compromised or at similar risk.
I think there's also a genuine hesitation from the JCVI on whether there's sufficient health advantage to the kids themselves. It's straightforward enough in terms of the herd immunity equation and things like avoiding time off school of course.
As for the mutation breeding ground issue - the theory is that we're no more likely to produce more by letting people get infected simultaneously rather than having the infections spread out into the winter. Plus, there are plenty of other cases outside the UK to mutate.
I'm not saying it's a pretty model or the best one, just that there are rational (but high risk) underpinnings for it.
Personally I think the tough bit is someone has to be honest/direct enough to warn the old/vulnerable (including those who've really enjoyed being able to go out shopping and to pubs, or meeting up with family this past couple of months) that now's a good time to stay home. Even if the vaccination makes them feel safe.
Why would they stay at home? If they predict 100 deaths per day that is less than influenza on average (over 10k in less than 100 days). Or do you expect them to stay at home every year from Nov to Feb from now on?
Why on earth would it affect fertility?
I understand why someone would have that concern in a hypothetical sense to any jab/medication they may have to take, although there is zero evidence to support it in this case.
That's a fair comment. Though there are a couple of "yes, but" moments in the equation.
We don't know if the combination of vaccines and self regulated cautious behaviour will keep it out of the over 70s group for another couple of months. If either of those barriers breaks down the hospitalisation and death rates could shoot up further. Far above the 2000/day admissions and 100/day deaths. If the over 70s get more cautious the deaths won't get that high. The modelling is right on a knife edge - which is why I think other countries/scientists will watch with a kind of horrified fascination.
On the broader picture - get used to it, it's going to be like flu - I agree. What we don't know yet is how that will impact hospitalisations/deaths in the next few years - do they add together, or is it the same group who get one or the other.
Sure. But the doubling times are long enough that nothing drastic will happen quickly. If there will be a need for messaging, it can be done in 5-10 weeks time.
Whilst that is true and i agree with it, it's not proven yet. Here you are asked if you are pregnant or planning to become pregnant, and if you say yes they cannot give you the vaccine.
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Maybe, but the majority of cases are in the unvaccinated under 25s and the trend lines and modelling calculations for hospital admissions and deaths are based on what are effectively assumptions about them staying there.
However that relies on maintaining the current mixing pattern that is showing a lot of homogeneity in socialising and less socialising across generations than "normal". That's actually assisted by some of the mitigations currently in place (like table service in bars/restaurants) and social distancing in theatres etc. With what's effectively the removal of most mitigations the dynamics change. Without venue check-in some of the early warnings that led people to temporarily quarantine following contact will disappear, and more people will uninstall the covid app to avoid warnings - because they become too common as case rates rise and places get more crowded.
The case doubling times are currently somewhere between 10-14 days, but with very big variations between different parts of the country that make the make the modelling very unstable, and make local risks very unpredictable.
Personally my guess is that the 70+ oldies will take the hint and avoid crowds (and family) but that it will hit the unvaccinated but over-confident 40+ groups. If that's true the hospitalisations could rise faster but the deaths won't rise as fast. Will there be enough time for people to see it coming? I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, that's why it's all about the ifs.
That’s not because of a potential effect on fertility, it’s because of a potential effect on an unborn foetus. Standard advice for all new medicines until they’ve generated a few year’s safety data.
I think if you’re actively trying to get pregnant it’s a tough call. Probably better to postpone the pregnancy than postpone the vaccine but individuals will have different opinions on this. Postponing the vaccine because you’re worried about a permanent effect on fertility doesn’t make sense and is definitely fuelled by lies spread on social media.
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I think we’ll see a lot of people deleting the NHS app and not getting tested with these new rules. It will only be the really ill and the rest will carry on regardless like the good old days with the flu.
Agreed, especially as you can seemingly get pinged from the most minimal interaction with a positive case. My fiance received a notification from last Friday - she had been to work, travelled on the tube, been in a couple of shops for a few minutes and that was it. No checking in anywhere, no going out to bars/pubs/restaurants.
If that's all it takes, then the hospitality sector will be on its knees in weeks, and simply going to work via public transport will be a risk.
Also, after the 19th , when kids break up from school and holidays have been booked in the UK no one will be getting tested if they feel a bit unwell.
Yep, I think the covid app is done for now, and them dropping its use for venue check-in will kill it off completely.
Case rates will plummet. No test, no case
Some positive herd immunity-related content from the ONS.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest
Nearly everyone over 50 tested positive for antibodies 3 weeks ago, either vaccine or infection related, and 90% of adults overall. Big drop off from 35 downward, as those groups have only been getting jabbed recently. Interesting that the 16-25 y/o were at around 20% pre-vaccine, which should help make up for lower vaccine take-up in that group.
The big unknown is the pool of under-16s, since they're not in the survey. They're not vaccinated at them moment, so will have lower levels of immunity. Although if you believe Indie Sage, schools are swimming in Covid, so they'll have generated some antibodies that way.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest
Nearly everyone over 50 tested positive for antibodies 3 weeks ago, either vaccine or infection related, and 90% of adults overall. Big drop off from 35 downward, as those groups have only been getting jabbed recently. Interesting that the 16-25 y/o were at around 20% pre-vaccine, which should help make up for lower vaccine take-up in that group.
The big unknown is the pool of under-16s, since they're not in the survey. They're not vaccinated at them moment, so will have lower levels of immunity. Although if you believe Indie Sage, schools are swimming in Covid, so they'll have generated some antibodies that way.
Ahhh good Donald Trump rises again this time in the U.K.Case rates will plummet. No test, no case
If you take a guess at infection generated antibodies in U16s as being similar to the other members of their family, it would be around 20%. Just doing a quick test on the numbers, that would suggest an overall population level of antibodies somewhere around 77% (75% if it's 10%, 78% if it's 25%)
If the modellers were right that would have been pretty close to herd immunity for Alpha (assuming current vaccine efficacy maintained), just another million or so vaccinated people and we'd have got there. Unfortunately Delta seems to have lifted the bar again. Case rates will start falling though as the virus runs out of people to infect, just not yet.
Can someone explain to me like Im 5 how herd immunity works with a mutating virus and a vaccine that loses effectiveness over 6 months?
It's just as likely to make you super fertile as it is to make you infertile..... Also just as likely to make you grow a second head.
It may not do - we aren't going to reach zero covid or anywhere close. We can get to a point through vaccination and infection where it doesn't spread fast and most outbreaks fade out again quickly.
I think we have to look at in flu terms, at least for now. Past infection and/or past vaccination (any flavour) will make it less serious for most people. Boosted vaccinations will make it less deadly for the most vulnerable. Some people will still get it, some still get ill, and some will die.
That said, there is still a good chance of us getting illness, hospitalisations and deaths down further over time, because unlike flu it doesn't mutate rapidly, and the massive investment in vaccine, testing and genome sequencing technology might let us target both it and flu far better and faster than we've ever been able to do before... but I've already gone way past that "like I'm 5" limit now
Probably not the latter, but point taken
Over 32.5K new cases today in the UK. I can't help think that the "open and be damned" approach is a grave mistake - and that hasn't even happened yet.
Need a bit of advice guys. Just had a ping from the NHS app telling me I need to self isplate for 6 days cause I have come in to contact with somebody with Covid etc etc.
I cant really afford the time off work though so if I do one of them lateral flow tests and it comes back negative do I need to isolate still?
I cant really afford the time off work though so if I do one of them lateral flow tests and it comes back negative do I need to isolate still?
Yeah afraid you do, which isn’t what you want to hear
Thanks for the reply.It may not do - we aren't going to reach zero covid or anywhere close. We can get to a point through vaccination and infection where it doesn't spread fast and most outbreaks fade out again quickly.
I think we have to look at in flu terms, at least for now. Past infection and/or past vaccination (any flavour) will make it less serious for most people. Boosted vaccinations will make it less deadly for the most vulnerable. Some people will still get it, some still get ill, and some will die.
That said, there is still a good chance of us getting illness, hospitalisations and deaths down further over time, because unlike flu it doesn't mutate rapidly, and the massive investment in vaccine, testing and genome sequencing technology might let us target both it and flu far better and faster than we've ever been able to do before... but I've already gone way past that "like I'm 5" limit now
Argh that's annoying
Trust this to fecking happen when England are on the verge of a Euro final!!
Don’t worry Amazon will deliver cold beer.Argh that's annoying
Trust this to fecking happen when England are on the verge of a Euro final!!
Yeah, you do, sadly. Same goes even if you do the much more reliable PCR test and it comes back negative. The reason is that Covid has an incubation period of up to 10 days before you have symptoms, but you could still potentially spread the virus before you have symptoms.
Worth checking if you can apply for the £500 support payment
The more infectious a virus is the higher HIT. It is that simple. If enough people can have a decent immune response either due to getting ill or vaccinated a virus will naturally die out. So for example if a person with covid would infect 5 people on average we would need more than 4 out of every 5 people to be able to mount an immune response so that for every infection less than one other person would be infected on average.
There are other factors that effect that a bit but that is the main way it works.
And what makes you think covid vaccines only protect for such a short time? New variants might not be protected against as well as against Alpha but so far the length of immune response doesn't seem to be a problem as far as I'm aware.
Lateral flow tests are close to useless for negative results as the false negative rate can be as high as 50%.
I'm not sure there is an NHS wide policy to be honest. Sometimes the approach seems to differ to some extent based on the circumstances and team, even within the trust.
Roughly though, as long as you're wearing 'adequate PPE' (which by pitiful PHE standards is a surgical face mask, an apron and gloves) and haven't performed an AGP procedure, then you're fine with regards to carrying on with work.
We did have a heart sink moment about a month ago though when a patient arrested and the entire junior team were in there doing CPR etc.....only to find out that the patient had been Covid positive in the community about 11 days previously. Until her result ended up coming back negative at the hospital, we were discussing whether everyone would have to isolate, whether they'd come in and do daily lateral flows with 2-3 PCR tests over a month etc etc.
Will be interesting to see what they say for it soon.
14 days. The UK government have just decided they only need to catch 90% (ish) of infections.
Thanks for the replies guys. No way out of it I guess I'm just gonna have to suck it up.
https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30445-3 Says those infected retain effective antibodies for 5-7 months.
https://news.wttw.com/2021/07/01/how-long-does-covid-19-immunity-last Says vaccine should last at least 6 months, but that its unknown beyond that. However there is a study underway to find out.
My question was based on the above being true, and that the covid variants would continue to show up. As in Delta plus and now Lamda. A variant that is the dominant variant in Peru. As of last week I believe there are 8 cases of Lamda in the UK.
Early non peer reviewed research says the mRNA vaccines will protect against Lamda. But in another pre print paper Lamda was found to have mutations that allowed it to escape antibodies created by CoronaVac.
One of the mutations in Lamda is T859N, which is found in the IOTA variant that is currently making the rounds in New York which has the E484K spike mutation that may help the virus avoid antibodies. It also has S477N mutation that may allow the virus to bond more tightly with human cells. And thats just one variant. In the UK, wiki says we have 8 being monitored with 4 being labelled as variants of concern. You look to Europe and they are looking at 30 variants. 4 of concern, 9 of interest and the rest monitoring.
Now I dont know what a lot of this means, because Im 5
, but you can see why I would ask how herd immunity is going to work with a short immune window and a virus that is mutating relatively quickly. And seemingly towards being vaccine resistant.Antibodies always decline. It is the memory cells that leap in to action later when the virus is experienced and new antibodies are made much much faster. I read a study recently that seemed to confirm that this was happening as expected with covid. I'm not sure if this was it or if this is a different study. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063
Due to the brief time SARS-CoV-2 has been around you can't say to a scientific what will happen in the long term but we are close to being able to say that an annual booster will be the very most we need in the future. We may need boosters to beef up responses to new variants but once the world is largely vaccinated variants will become very rare if not stop. So if I had to bet I think we will be looking at annual boosters to address variants for a year or three and by then we will know how often, if at all "normal" boosters are needed.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...nes-are-effective-against-Lambda-variant.aspx
Variants are a function of the levels of infection as they occur very rarely. Once the world is vaccinated variants will be of far less concern and if they occur can be accounted for with tweaks to vaccine booster shots.
Lamda seems to be like many variants. Vaccines work but slightly less effectively with the best mRNA vaccines. Less so with the already not that great Sinovax but still not to the point that it should prevent vaccination being the solution.
So far the variants, even Delta, haven't been as bad as we feared in terms of vaccines and the mRNA vaccines will be tweaked to address the variants very soon apparently. Vaccine supply, delivery and vaccine resistance are far bigger worries in my opinion as we really need the world vaccinated.One of the mutations in Lamda is T859N, which is found in the IOTA variant that is currently making the rounds in New York which has the E484K spike mutation that may help the virus avoid antibodies. It also has S477N mutation that may allow the virus to bond more tightly with human cells. And thats just one variant. In the UK, wiki says we have 8 being monitored with 4 being labelled as variants of concern. You look to Europe and they are looking at 30 variants. 4 of concern, 9 of interest and the rest monitoring.
Now I dont know what a lot of this means, because Im 5
This is promising, thanks for that. Last time I remember seeing anything about our immune memory for covid, it wasnt looking good. So this is something to happy about.
Very true. Very, very true.
The short answer is that herd immunity is off the table. Even if we never get a more transmissible variant than delta, we won’t be able to vaccinate enough people to eradicate the virus unless we somehow invent a vaccine that is a hell of a lot more effective than what we have now (which is unlikely)https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30445-3 Says those infected retain effective antibodies for 5-7 months.
https://news.wttw.com/2021/07/01/how-long-does-covid-19-immunity-last Says vaccine should last at least 6 months, but that its unknown beyond that. However there is a study underway to find out.
My question was based on the above being true, and that the covid variants would continue to show up. As in Delta plus and now Lamda. A variant that is the dominant variant in Peru. As of last week I believe there are 8 cases of Lamda in the UK.
Early non peer reviewed research says the mRNA vaccines will protect against Lamda. But in another pre print paper Lamda was found to have mutations that allowed it to escape antibodies created by CoronaVac.
One of the mutations in Lamda is T859N, which is found in the IOTA variant that is currently making the rounds in New York which has the E484K spike mutation that may help the virus avoid antibodies. It also has S477N mutation that may allow the virus to bond more tightly with human cells. And thats just one variant. In the UK, wiki says we have 8 being monitored with 4 being labelled as variants of concern. You look to Europe and they are looking at 30 variants. 4 of concern, 9 of interest and the rest monitoring.
Now I dont know what a lot of this means, because Im 5