The chase for 4th place (not top 4)

[Nou_Camp99]

Arsenal and Spurs have no European football. We may only have two games though if we lose to Atletico which isn't impossible.

It's going to be a very close race between the 3 teams. Westham won't keep the pace

 

[cyberman]

Arsenal and Spurs have no European football. We may only have two games though if we lose to Atletico which isn't impossible.

It's going to be a very close race between the 3 teams. Westham won't keep the pace

If we get far in CL then we will have improved a hell of a lot and top 4 would be easier?

 

[thegregster]

Up to the Glazers really. Just like in Jan 2019 when we needed a n10 we need at least 1 CM this time.

 

[PoTMS]

Arsenal have to be favourites as it stands. Points on the board matter more than games in hand.

 

[united_99]

Arsenal and Spurs have league cup games instead of European football and taking into account the opposition they are playing they will send out strong teams.

 

[pascell]

If Chelsea drop points later, they'll be dragged into the top 4 race too. But I expect the January transfer window will see them through to the end of the season in 3rd place.

 

[Topgun1]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd.

It all comes down to how well each team navigates the big games. How many points can be squeezed out of the big fixtures.

Which means for example that Man Utd's chances will be decided at the tail end of the season where all the horrible fixtures are lined up starting from March.

Away to Man City, At home

 

[PoTMS]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd.

It all comes down to how well each team navigates the big games. How many points can be squeezed out of the big fixtures.

Which means for example that Man Utd's chances will be decided at the tail end of the season where all the horrible fixtures are lined up starting from March.

Away to Man City, At home

Well, we have a very favourable set of fixtures until then. If we can get a sizeable lead built up by then, I'd be fairly confident in our chances of getting top 4. Whether we will be good enough to get maximum points against the fodder is the question.

 

[Sandikan]

Arsenal have to be favourites as it stands. Points on the board matter more than games in hand.

8 points ahead of us with 3 games played more.
6 points ahead of Tottenham, also 3 games more.

Arsenal have played half their fixtures, and have City in 2 games time.

We have a superb chance to put the pressure on with Newcastle and Burnley, so we're certainly not out of it by any means.

 

[Sandikan]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd.

It all comes down to how well each team navigates the big games. How many points can be squeezed out of the big fixtures.

Which means for example that Man Utd's chances will be decided at the tail end of the season where all the horrible fixtures are lined up starting from March.

Away to Man City, At home

We have to hope we'll have a lot of momentum, and our wonder manager has magicked us into a wonderful unit by then.

 

[Giggsy13]

Wouldn’t mind seeing our owners and board get embarrassed for their small dick behaviour in not wanting to appoint Conte because “he was too mean” . Conte has Spurs in form and they look like a real threat to finish ahead of us.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

Arsenal heading into a tough run of fixtures now. They have been very very fortunate with covid derailments too. Maybe they will be the next club to get impacted.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

Wouldn’t mind seeing our owners and board get embarrassed for their small dick behaviour in not wanting to appoint Conte because “he was too mean” . Conte has Spurs in form and they look like a real threat to finish ahead of us.

Nah. I'd rather have Ralf for 6 months and have the chance of Ten Hag as our next boss.

 

[talking robot]

i think chelsea will get sucked into a top 4 race and it’ll be 4 teams for two spots. i still think us and chelsea are favorites to qualify based on squad strength and track record from previous seasons

 

[Topgun1]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd and it will come down to how well each team navigates the big fixtures.
I think near-maximum points will be squeezed from the smaller teams until the end of the season, so it will come down the differences in the big fixtures.

For example Man Utd's season will be decided by how well they perform from March to May where there's a horrible set of fixtures awaiting. (Away to Man City, At home to Tottenham, Away to Liverpool, At home to Leicester, Away to Everton, Away to Arsenal, At home to Chelsea.)

Arsenal's season will be decided in January and February. If we're still in touching distance to Man Utd by the end of February, then we're 90% guaranteed to finish ahead of Man Utd. We only have Man Utd left after February, the rest will likely be steamrolled.

As for Tottenham, their season will be decided by March. If by March they're ahead of Arsenal/United, then they're in an excellent position to finish 4th. It will be difficult to match their points tally. Most of their difficult fixtures end by the end of March. They only have Leicester and Liverpool to worry about after that point.

 

[Red Dreams]

Nah. I'd rather have Ralf for 6 months and have the chance of Ten Hag as our next boss.

I would not have minded Conte.
But I agree. Ralf is getting the basics sorted. If ten Hag does come, it will be a smooth transition.

 

[Giggsyking]

Wouldn’t mind seeing our owners and board get embarrassed for their small dick behaviour in not wanting to appoint Conte because “he was too mean” . Conte has Spurs in form and they look like a real threat to finish ahead of us.

I wouldnt be sad Conte went their! the problem was our stupid board sticking with Ole for more than what he deserve. He should have been sacked long ago and we wouldnt have been in this situation in the first place.

 

[NoLogo]

Hard to say really but both Arsenal and Tottenham seem to be in excellent form and probably have a better shot at the 4th than we do right now. But it all depends on how we come back from the "corona break" I would reckon.

 

[Topgun1]

Well, we have a very favourable set of fixtures until then. If we can get a sizeable lead built up by then, I'd be fairly confident in our chances of getting top 4. Whether we will be good enough to get maximum points against the fodder is the question.

Yeah exactly. You guys have a very favourable fixture list up to that point, so that's really where you guys have to squeeze out as much juice as possible.

Basically, United need a bit of clear air between themselves and Arsenal/Tottenham before March kicks in. I think if United can get at least an 8 point lead by that point, it might be good enough. Because there's a huge disparity in the fixture list after that point.

We have to hope we'll have a lot of momentum, and our wonder manager has magicked us into a wonderful unit by then.

Yeah exactly, the key is to build up momentum up to that moment so they can hit the ground running in that difficult 2 month period.

 

[Red Dreams]

Not bothered about Arsenal at all.
But Spurs will do well.

 

[SinNombre]

Not bothered about Arsenal at all.
But Spurs will do well.

Yeah, this is likely.

Arsenal are playing once a week, with no Covid derailments. And lose to any half-decent team.


There is actually as much chance of Chelsea falling back into this race, as is of Arsenal winning it.

 

[Marwood]

I didn't think Spurs looked all that great today. Palace handed it to them really.

I still think we can drag Chelsea into a top four race as well.

We have the third best starting XI. Just a case of playing to those standards. Top 4 will then take care of itself.

 

[AneRu]

Think we will certainly need reinforcements in the winter window to stand a chance - Arsenal have the hype but Spurs look ominous and it's scary to think Kane hasn't got going. The worrying thing is how we struggled against Norwich and Palace and the ease with which they have been dispatched by our top 4 rivals.

If we don't back Ralf in January we could be playing Thursday Night football again.

 

[ThatsGreat]

Wouldn’t mind seeing our owners and board get embarrassed for their small dick behaviour in not wanting to appoint Conte because “he was too mean” . Conte has Spurs in form and they look like a real threat to finish ahead of us.

If Utd had gotten Conte, then they could've kept him away from Spurs as well, who'd be stuck with Nuno or some other rubbish manager. Longer term Ten Hag or whoever might be better, but Conte should really have been the option short term. Though of course Utd wouldn't be hurt as much staying out of the CL for a season, as would Arsenal.

 

[copen1945]

Not really bothered by Arsenal and Spurs. United have the third best squad and the best or the second best starting XI.

 

[ThierryHenry14]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd.

It all comes down to how well each team navigates the big games. How many points can be squeezed out of the big fixtures.

Which means for example that Man Utd's chances will be decided at the tail end of the season where all the horrible fixtures are lined up starting from March.

Away to Man City, At home

Big fixtures don't matter. 3 points against "lesser" team is much more important.

 

[mu4c_20le]

If Utd had gotten Conte, then they could've kept him away from Spurs as well, who'd be stuck with Nuno or some other rubbish manager. Longer term Ten Hag or whoever might be better, but Conte should really have been the option short term. Though of course Utd wouldn't be hurt as much staying out of the CL for a season, as would Arsenal.

You should worry more about yourself tbh

 

[::sonny::]

Arsenal are underrated

 

[ThatsGreat]

You should worry more about yourself tbh

Unfortunately with Conte at Spurs, it looks like we'll miss out on top four even while playing our best. Need a striker and a cm.

 

[McGrathsipan]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd.

It all comes down to how well each team navigates the big games. How many points can be squeezed out of the big fixtures.

Which means for example that Man Utd's chances will be decided at the tail end of the season where all the horrible fixtures are lined up starting from March.

Away to Man City, At home

Last sentence?

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

It's a straight shoot out between Arsenal/Tottenham/Man Utd and it will come down to how well each team navigates the big fixtures.
I think near-maximum points will be squeezed from the smaller teams until the end of the season, so it will come down the differences in the big fixtures.

For example Man Utd's season will be decided by how well they perform from March to May where there's a horrible set of fixtures awaiting. (Away to Man City, At home to Tottenham, Away to Liverpool, At home to Leicester, Away to Everton, Away to Arsenal, At home to Chelsea.)

Arsenal's season will be decided in January and February. If we're still in touching distance to Man Utd by the end of February, then we're 90% guaranteed to finish ahead of Man Utd. We only have Man Utd left after February, the rest will likely be steamrolled.

As for Tottenham, their season will be decided by March. If by March they're ahead of Arsenal/United, then they're in an excellent position to finish 4th. It will be difficult to match their points tally. Most of their difficult fixtures end by the end of March. They only have Leicester and Liverpool to worry about after that point.

Arsenal aren’t getting max points from the bottom teams . It’s as if people don’t watch this league. Spurs and Arsenal will drop loads of points which Utd are also capable of. Utds advantage is that our first 11 and squad is miles better than both and if we find form we are the most capable of going on a big run. Personally I reckon Utd stabilise and it ends up a pretty comfortable top four finish.

 

[BlueHaze]

Wouldn’t mind seeing our owners and board get embarrassed for their small dick behaviour in not wanting to appoint Conte because “he was too mean” . Conte has Spurs in form and they look like a real threat to finish ahead of us.

Not even about Conte, just their sheer stupidity of keeping Ole despite literally everything going to hell. This decision may in fact come the end of the season make us lose out on CL qualifiaction to bloody Arsenal or Spurs. I am actually amazed a group of owners only concerned about top 4 qualification just casually let that many points slip away.

If they made the decision sooner we might have been in a much better position. Either way it doesn't matter now, the damage is already done but it's going to be proper embarrassing if we lose out on CL to Artetas Arsenal.

 

[Leftback99]

Arsenal are underrated

They are but it's more that we're overrated on here.

Arsenal are pretty consistent at playing to their level, beating teams they should and losing to the rest. We can drop points to anyone.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

They are but it's more that we're overrated on here.

Arsenal are pretty consistent at playing to their level, beating teams they should and losing to the rest. We can drop points to anyone.

This is based on very little.

 

[ThatsGreat]

Arsenal aren’t getting max points from the bottom teams . It’s as if people don’t watch this league. Spurs and Arsenal will drop loads of points which Utd are also capable of. Utds advantage is that our first 11 and squad is miles better than both and if we find form we are the most capable of going on a big run. Personally I reckon Utd stabilise and it ends up a pretty comfortable top four finish.

Arsenal have been remarkably consistent in beating teams below and losing to teams above. And yet we're at 35 points halfway mark on track to end the season on 70 points. Think the top four will be decided by the teams around us, but Arsenal will be close.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

Arsenal have been remarkably consistent in beating teams below and losing to teams above. And yet we're at 35 points halfway mark on track to end the season on 70 points. Think the top four will be decided by the teams around us, but Arsenal will be close.

We will see, I don’t see Arsenal keeping it up. Poor manager, average squad.

 

[Giggsyking]

They are but it's more that we're overrated on here.

Arsenal are pretty consistent at playing to their level, beating teams they should and losing to the rest. We can drop points to anyone.

Based on what?

 

[gajender]

Arsenal have been remarkably consistent in beating teams below and losing to teams above. And yet we're at 35 points halfway mark on track to end the season on 70 points. Think the top four will be decided by the teams around us, but Arsenal will be close.

Had it been 32 points or 33 points would you have been confident of reaching 70 points total at end of the season.

 

[maniak]

Don't worry, we'll not finish 4th.

 

[Nish115]

Arsenal aren’t getting max points from the bottom teams . It’s as if people don’t watch this league. Spurs and Arsenal will drop loads of points which Utd are also capable of. Utds advantage is that our first 11 and squad is miles better than both and if we find form we are the most capable of going on a big run. Personally I reckon Utd stabilise and it ends up a pretty comfortable top four finish.

Hardly any side will 100% beat the teams outside the top 6. But our record this season:

Brentford Away - Lost (9 cases of covid/injuries for first game was always tough)
Brighton Away - Drew (was our toughest game vs teams outside of the top 6, they were in v good form)
Palace Home - Drew (disappointing game)
Everton Away - Lost (poor performance, but should have got something from it).

Outside of that we beat: Norwich H, Burnley A, Villa H, Leicester A, Watford H, Newcastle H, Southampton H, West Ham H, Leeds A, Norwich A.

14 games played, 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 loses. So yes, relatively speaking we are doing a good job of picking up points vs the bottom teams. I am only dissapointed with the Palace and Everton games. Brentford and Brighton were games we had no right getting points from at the time.

Outside of that though:

Chelsea Home - Lost (Again lots of injuries and Chelsea full strength but we were bad)
City Away - Lost (no chance)
Spurs Home - Won
Liverpool Away - Lost (very poor)
United Away - Lost (should have got something but Auba couldn't finish his dinner)

5 games vs the top 6, and 1 win. City and Liverpool away no problems, and that Chelsea game was very tough considering the squads. United away the only one we should have got something from really.

So, i'd say we are generally doing a good job of getting the points we 'should' be getting.