The chase for 4th place (not top 4)

[hobbers]

Arsenal have a pretty efficient attack now they've finally got rid of Aubameyang.

Martinelli, Saka, Lacazatte with Odegaard and ESR. That might not win them any champions leagues, but they'll score a lot more goals against bottom half teams this season than our collection of supposedly superior talent.

And if they can keep Tierney and Tomiyasu fit they'll be up there scrapping for fourth.

 

[Chief123]

The only thing that is certain is Arsenal will not get top 4. It’s amusing to see the Arsenal fans coming back to life and getting giddy. It won’t be long before Arteta Out calls will be back.

 

[wolvored]

If we win our games in hand we will be right back in it. Its not out of our hands yet.

 

[ThatsGreat]

Had it been 32 points or 33 points would you have been confident of reaching 70 points total at end of the season.

I would have been less confident than I'm now. Like I said Arsenal have been really consistently top four form. I was putting us at top four or thereabouts even when we were on the losing streak the the beginning of the season.

 

[gajender]

I would have been less confident than I'm now. Like I said Arsenal have been really consistently top four form. I was putting us at top four or thereabouts even when we were on the losing streak the the beginning of the season.

Does the fact that you have played Norwich twice already would make any difference to your thinking .

 

[Leftback99]

This is based on very little.

2nd best home record in the league and they've dropped points just once when odds on favourite before the start of the game. Small sample I'll give you.

 

[RuudTom83]

I think the upturn in form for Spurs and Arsenal gives Ralf less room for error. He can’t really go through a bad patch or a settling in period.

The postponed games don’t really help either, because points on the board are far more valuable than games in hand.

A slip up in the next few games will pile the pressure on and it will be interesting to watch the reaction from in and around United.

 

[Offside]

I think the upturn in form for Spurs and Arsenal gives Ralf less room for error. He can’t really go through a bad patch or a settling in period.

The postponed games don’t really help either, because points on the board are far more valuable than games in hand.

A slip up in the next few games will pile the pressure on and it will be interesting to watch the reaction from in and around United.

There’s half a season to go. Arsenal will get their arse handed to them on New Year’s Day by City and all of a sudden everyone’s ruling them out again. People are far too reactionary after just a few games. The last time we were played we were ahead of them after a shambolic first 15 games. We need to fire everyone if we finish behind them. Spurs are actually a real worry, as they have a top class manager.

 

[ThatsGreat]

Does the fact that you have played Norwich twice already would make any difference to your thinking .

Nope, neither would dropping points to Wolves, City. We'll be close to 70, don't know if that would be enough to get top four though. In fact if there was a bet for 70 +- 3 finishing points, I would make it.

 

[Mogget]

United favourites by a mile. Can't see you not finishing top 4 with the squad you have

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

2nd best home record in the league and they've dropped points just once when odds on favourite before the start of the game. Small sample I'll give you.

Seems odd to only consider this season. Utd have proven to be miles more consistent over a 3/4 year period.

 

[Leftback99]

Seems odd to only consider this season. Utd have proven to be miles more consistent over a 3/4 year period.

But we're talking about top 4 this season.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Unfortunately with Conte at Spurs, it looks like we'll miss out on top four even while playing our best. Need a striker and a cm.

I think Conte would've been great for you guys.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

But we're talking about top 4 this season.

Which means we need to look at which team is more consistent and has proven they can go on runs. Utd are that team.

 

[gajender]

Nope, neither would dropping points to Wolves, City. We'll be close to 70, don't know if that would be enough to get top four though. In fact if there was a bet for 70 +- 3 finishing points, I would make it.

I believe you would finish with anywhere between 63-67 points .

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

Hardly any side will 100% beat the teams outside the top 6. But our record this season:

Brentford Away - Lost (9 cases of covid/injuries for first game was always tough)
Brighton Away - Drew (was our toughest game vs teams outside of the top 6, they were in v good form)
Palace Home - Drew (disappointing game)
Everton Away - Lost (poor performance, but should have got something from it).

Outside of that we beat: Norwich H, Burnley A, Villa H, Leicester A, Watford H, Newcastle H, Southampton H, West Ham H, Leeds A, Norwich A.

14 games played, 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 loses. So yes, relatively speaking we are doing a good job of picking up points vs the bottom teams. I am only dissapointed with the Palace and Everton games. Brentford and Brighton were games we had no right getting points from at the time.

Outside of that though:

Chelsea Home - Lost (Again lots of injuries and Chelsea full strength but we were bad)
City Away - Lost (no chance)
Spurs Home - Won
Liverpool Away - Lost (very poor)
United Away - Lost (should have got something but Auba couldn't finish his dinner)

5 games vs the top 6, and 1 win. City and Liverpool away no problems, and that Chelsea game was very tough considering the squads. United away the only one we should have got something from really.

So, i'd say we are generally doing a good job of getting the points we 'should' be getting.

Yeh for now. Average teams struggle to keep that up all season. I don’t see this Arsenal team avoiding dropping silly points when we get to the business end. Soft underbelly, lack of top talent and a poor manager. Conte or Utd nailed one 4th for me.

 

[Leftback99]

Which means we need to look at which team is more consistent and has proven they can go on runs. Utd are that team.

I remember you were similarly bullish about our prospects of winning the title at the start of the season when I said we'd finish 4th. Like I said in the post you responded to, we're overrated.

 

[ThatsGreat]

I believe you would finish with anywhere between 63-67 points .

Right, its anyones guess at this point. We might finish on 70 and miss out on top four by a point, which would be equivalent to finishing on 63 and making sixth. Only ones that are definitely making the top four are Liverpool, and City.

 

[copen1945]

Unfortunately, Chelsea probably won't be dragged into the fourth spot battle. So, it will be just the three of United, Arsenal, and Spurs. Four fighting for two spots would have been less stressful.

 

[Shane88]

Anything less than 9 points from Newcastle, Burnley and Wolves and Ronaldo is playing FK Astana in the Europa next year (or, more likely, abandoning ship).

 

[James35]

I fancied 4th place as a certainty with the players we signed. Then we just continued to be complete garbage. It will be one massive task to get top four this season in my opinion with City, Liverpool and Chelsea taking the top three places. We kept Ole way too long and a lot of damage has been done already. Ralf has a massive task on his hands and no way Ronaldo will stay if we can’t offer CL football, another rebuild in summer with the players likely to leave…3 points an absolute must tomorrow for me.

 

[Offside]

I fancied 4th place as a certainty with the players we signed. Then we just continued to be complete garbage. It will be one massive task to get top four this season in my opinion with City, Liverpool and Chelsea taking the top three places. We kept Ole way to long and a lot of damage has been done already. Ralf has a massive task on his hand and no way Ronaldo will stay if we can’t offer CL football, another rebuild in summer with the players likely to leave…3 points an absolute must tomorrow for me.

He shouldn’t have a massive task on his hand. After our last game we were in the top 4.

 

[Chipper]

Recent results mostly cementing what I though in my mind, United or Spurs.

West Ham dropping off, Spurs continuing to look solid. I suppose Arsenal are in decent form but I just don't think they have the talent of what top 4 team/squad/manager should be as an overall package. There's always the chance that I underrate them or that it's a particularly weak season but for now they don't seem that threatening. They have City on New Years Day and Spurs on Jan 16th, see what happens then, might have to re-assess if positive results for them.

 

[Crashoutcassius]

arsenal would need to prove to me they can hold this form over a season before i believe it. it should be easily achievable for us. I would have bet Ole to get there ahead of spurs or arsenal and I think ralf gives us an improved chance still.

 

[Eli Zee]

United, spurs, or arsenal will get 4th. It's almost a given.
Personally, I think we'll get it. We have a better squad than the others and half a season to go. Personally, I think it'll be like a 9 point gap between 4th and 5th and we'll end up getting it comfortably.

i could be completely wrong thoough and we lose the next 3 games in a row and my prediction will change completely if that happens

 

[lex talionis]

United favourites by a mile. Can't see you not finishing top 4 with the squad you have

I wouldn’t say a mile, but top four is ours to give away. What I’m more interested in is whether we can put opponents away in the first half or whether we’ll have to keep scraping wins.

 

[Remember the geese]

United favourites by a mile. Can't see you not finishing top 4 with the squad you have

Definitely not. Points on the board are better than games in hand. Arsenal are on a roll, Spurs are looking improved under Conte and we were unconvincing against Norwich. It will be a tight race.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

I remember you were similarly bullish about our prospects of winning the title at the start of the season when I said we'd finish 4th. Like I said in the post you responded to, we're overrated.

If you can’t be optimistic about your own team I’d suggest trying another one. What’s the fecking point otherwise?

 

[James35]

He shouldn’t have a massive task on his hand. After our last game we were in the top 4.

Yes I know where we were placed and we can also go back there if we win the three games in hand. However I believe we have dropped way too many points and with this team we’ll certainly drop a fair few more. So my opinion is he will have a massive task on his hands, yours obviously differs. I don’t have the faith in most of these players even with a new manager. Maybe a good midfield signing in January would change my mind…however I think we’ll end up 5th or 6th.

 

[Redlyn]

Can we string 3 wins together this season first then feel bullish? Many on here acting like it's some kind of given we will finish at least 4th.

 

[njred]

I wouldn’t say a mile, but top four is ours to give away. What I’m more interested in is whether we can put opponents away in the first half or whether we’ll have to keep scraping wins.

How is it yours to give away(assuming your a united supporter)? You’re 8 points out in 7th. I never count on games in hand since it never works out the way you want it to.

 

[Leftback99]

If you can’t be optimistic about your own team I’d suggest trying another one. What’s the fecking point otherwise?

What's wrong with just being realistic but hoping for the best?

 

[Topgun1]

Big fixtures don't matter. 3 points against "lesser" team is much more important.

But there's a big discrepancy between results against smaller teams vs results against bigger teams, Arsenal particularly are vulnerable to this.

We're almost guaranteed to lose against big sides, Arteta is clueless in big games. So if Tottenham & United can pick up points against the big teams, it means we need to do even more against the smaller sides than they do, to stand any chance of a top 4.

Do you see the point?

Unless Arteta finds a way to start picking up points in the big fixtures, then we'll always have to pick up maximum points against the weaker sides and even then, it might not be enough!

Let's see how the next 2 months go. If we're 10+ points out of top 4 by the end of it, then it's all over. We have to be within 6 or 7 points to stand a chance.

Last sentence?

I accidentally submitted that post and tried to delete that post, it didn't work. I wrote another post where I completed what I was saying afterwards and it's beneath that one if you scroll down.

 

[Red4Ever]

Lads it’s spurs and arsenal

if we don’t finish ahead of them we don’t deserve CL football

 

[Red4Ever]

Big fixtures don't matter. 3 points against "lesser" team is much more important.

3 points against your rivals costs them points too

So this is incorrect

Arsenal & United’s games v each other & spurs & perhaps West Ham etc are thus more important

 

[Topgun1]

3 points against your rivals costs them points too

So this is incorrect

Arsenal & United’s games v each other & spurs & perhaps West Ham etc are thus more important

Absolutely true.

We were on such a good roll recently and all the hard work was undone by 3 big fixtures. We lost to Liverpool, Lost to United then lost to Everton away.

Just like that, in a blink of an eye, 9-point reversal against our rivals.

What's the point in putting the hard work of maximizing points against weaker sides if all of the work goes to waste by picking up ZERO points against big teams?

0 points from those 3 fixtures is shocking. If you include our losses against Chelsea & Man City too, and that's ZERO points in 5 fixtures.

What kind of record is that? It means we need to squeeze every point from the weaker sides as possible, but that's not a sustainable way of trying to get top 4.

Arteta doesn't know how to manage the big games at all. Tottenham & United have already got rid of their managers for this incompetence but we still kept ours.

 

[Red4Ever]

Absolutely true.

We were on such a good roll recently and all the hard work was undone by 3 big fixtures. We lost to Liverpool, Lost to United then lost to Everton away.

Just like that, in a blink of an eye, 9-point reversal against our rivals.

What's the point in putting the hard work of maximizing points against weaker sides if all of the work goes to waste by picking up ZERO points against big teams?

0 points from those 3 fixtures is shocking. If you include our losses against Chelsea & Man City too, and that's ZERO points in 5 fixtures.

What kind of record is that? It means we need to squeeze every point from the weaker sides as possible, but that's not a sustainable way of trying to get top 4.

Arteta doesn't know how to manage the games at all. Tottenham & United have already got rid of their managers for this incompetence but we still kept ours.

yeah that’s true though he’s doing good atm

arsenal are back in the race at least think United & spurs weren’t gonna be near top4 had they persisted

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

I think Spurs under Conte look like favorites to me.

We need to improve as well.

Arsenal could do it. The young players they have are really good.

 

[Kentonio]

Definitely not. Points on the board are better than games in hand. Arsenal are on a roll, Spurs are looking improved under Conte and we were unconvincing against Norwich. It will be a tight race.

3 points on the board would obviously be better, but having to play right now generally means playing with a covid hit squad so you're less likely to be putting full points on the board. I'd have bitten your hand off for postponements of our Everton and Wolves games for instance. 4 points dropped that should have been avoidable.

 

[::sonny::]

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