Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[TMDaines]

Why are people so keen for Ukraine to surrender?

I reckon if Ukraine surrenders than Europe should surrender too. We may as well give Putin what he really wants in the long term, so we can avoid any future wars.

Fascist rule isn't all that bad really, right? I'm sure we'll all get used to it after a few years. We'll all be chanting 'Down with the smelly USA' and we'll enjoy being bussed to a celebration in London Londonsburg when our Motherland nukes New York

The only people who seem to think Ukraine has the reasonable option of surrendering are those who pop up in the thread in complete ignorance of what is going on in both Russia and Ukraine now, and what has been happening for the last eight years.

I swear some treat this as if two bald men were fighting over a comb, as Argentina and the UK did over the Falklands or some other colonial dispute.

What percentage of those refugees in the rest of Europe do you think will want to, or will even be safe to, go back to whatever is left of Ukraine if it falls into Putin’s hands? Ukrainians aren’t all in here in some form of vanity.

 

[nimic]

I doubt that. The Normandy landings would still have occurred and Germany would still have been defeated from the West by Britain, America and allies, although it would have taken longer. Germany would have had to pull troops back from the East to try and defend the Western front, and then the USSR would have taken back all the lost territory.

Then that means they didn't lose. The Normandy landings were possible because the Eastern Front had three times as many German divisions as were stationed in the west, and the ones in the east were by far the stronger and more experienced ones. But that's neither here nor there. This discussion is getting silly, and it's all semantics. Let's agree to disagree.

 

[GlastonSpur]

You're definitely in the wrong here.

If Ukraine loses territory, this means they've lost the war. Now the Russians might not achieve all their objectives but that's not relevant in this case.

If Ukraine loses its sea access, that'll destroy their economy and they'll ironically be pushed even further into the embrace of the West because their economy will be crippled.

We'll just have to disagree. I don't see how a country that still has an intact military and government, still will control most of its own country, is still getting more weapons on a daily basis, and is still fighting, can be said to have lost the war.

A temporary stalemate well happen, and maybe last for several years, but a stalemate is not the same as having lost the war.

 

[MTF]

Yes... because they got it back, and more. If the war had ended with the Germans occupying Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasus, the USSR would have lost the war.

I think one imperfect (because of many many differences) analogy that the Ukrainians would be aiming at is the WWI armistice. German forces still held parts of France, Belgium and Luxembourg, but were militarily exhausted so opted to accept unfavorable peace terms despite having a net gain of territory.

 

[nimic]

I think one imperfect (because of many many differences) analogy that the Ukrainians would be aiming at is the WWI armistice. German forces still held parts of France, Belgium and Luxembourg, but were militarily exhausted so opted to accept unfavorable peace terms despite having a net gain of territory.

If Putin is ousted, I can see something like this happening. He'd have to go, though.

 

[Smores]

Feels like we're not far away from Russia escalating beyond anything we've seen so far. All these takes about Ukraine winning are forgetting Russia are willing to go much further.

If Russia have no intention of lowering their demands and Ukraine won't then it seems inevitable. Presumably the world will watch on.

 

[spiriticon]

Losing sea access at Odesa is not so big a problem I think. I'm sure they could do a deal with Romania and Bulgaria to use their ports.

 

[Raoul]

Feels like we're not far away from Russia escalating beyond anything we've seen so far. All these takes about Ukraine winning are forgetting Russia are willing to go much further.

If Russia have no intention of lowering their demands and Ukraine won't then it seems inevitable. Presumably the world will watch on.

That's true, although the conventional wisdom amongst most analysts is they wouldn't be able to hold any Ukrainian cities if they were to "win" the war, which means the best thing they can hope for would be a long term frozen conflict through a protracted insurgency. That would of course favor the Ukrainians as well since the Russians are already now, running out of manpower, logistical capacity, and several other things required to control a country the size of Texas, especially amidst a fierce and well armed insurgency.

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

Who is Russia's top field commander in Ukraine? The US isn't sure.

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent clumsiness and disorganization of the Russian assault.
Without a top, theater-wide commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials.
Units participating in different Russian offensives across Ukraine have failed to connect, these sources say, and in fact, appear to be acting independently with no overarching operational design.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html

 

[Sir Matt]

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[MTF]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html

Interesting insight, along with the one above (and contained within the article) about using unsecured comms. Overall shitshow. Could be that like many an autocrat before him, Putin has decided that only he has the cunning to direct the armed forces to victory.

 

[Sir Matt]

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A thread on how Navalny’s team figured out that the yacht, Schaherazade, belongs to Putin. Everyone but the captain is Russian and are members of Putin’s secret service.

 

[Raoul]

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A thread on how Navalny’s team figured out that the yacht, Schaherazade, belongs to Putin. Everyone but the captain is Russian and are members of Putin’s secret service.

Looks like a pretty good place to house Ukrainian refugees.

 

[The Firestarter]

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The details of this acquisition back then probably would make a movie.

 

[UpWithRivers]

They won't be able to for as long as large numbers of Russian troops remain there. But there's the rub - how long will Russia be able to keep large numbers of troops there without needing to shift them elsewhere to cope with - for example - a pro-Western coup in Byelorussia, or an uprising in any number of ex-Soviet places that no longer wish to be under Putin's thumb, or Japan getting aggressive about disputed islands in the far east, or the Syrian regime needing further help?

They dont needs large numbers of troops. They just need good defensive position and defensive weaponry. If Ukraine attacks they just need to hold on until back up arrives, which is just over the border. Plus they will see them coming a mile off. Literally. And even if they do Russia will just launch another sht load of missiles at some hospital somewhere to teach them a lesson. It will be impossible without mass casualties of their own citizens. Once Russia takes a city it will be theirs for good unless they choose to move out

 

[Rightnr]

We'll just have to disagree. I don't see how a country that still has an intact military and government, still will control most of its own country, is still getting more weapons on a daily basis, and is still fighting, can be said to have lost the war.

A temporary stalemate well happen, and maybe last for several years, but a stalemate is not the same as having lost the war.

We're talking about the end of the war, not the current state. Otherwise Germany can claim they won WWII two years in.

 

[GlastonSpur]

The BBC reports:

"The Russian invasion remains largely stalled across all their lines of advance, with troops not having moved any further towards Kyiv since last week, a US senior defence official has said.

The Russians have launched more than 1,100 missiles, but may be facing some “inventory issues”, the official said. Some missiles have failed to launch, some have failed to explode, the official added.

The US is unable to confirm or refute Russia’s claim that it used a hypersonic missile, the official said, adding it wasn’t clear why the missile would have been needed, but that the Russians may have been running low on precision guided missiles, or have wanted to send a message.

The official said there had been an increase in naval activity in the Black Sea, which was believed to include some shelling around the port of Odesa. But this did not mean an assault on the city was imminent, the official said."

 

[Rajma]

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[GlastonSpur]

They dont needs large numbers of troops. They just need good defensive position and defensive weaponry. If Ukraine attacks they just need to hold on until back up arrives, which is just over the border. Plus they will see them coming a mile off. Literally. And even if they do Russia will just launch another sht load of missiles at some hospital somewhere to teach them a lesson. It will be impossible without mass casualties of their own citizens. Once Russia takes a city it will be theirs for good unless they choose to move out

There wouldn't be frontal assaults. Instead, it'd be endless hit-and-run attacks, assassinations, road-side bombs, guerrilla warfare, a surrounding hostile civilian population, drone attacks etc etc. To keep control of several large cities, many towns and villages, and the surrounding countryside, you need a lot of troops.

 

[GlastonSpur]

We're talking about the end of the war, not the current state. Otherwise Germany CA claim they won WWII two years in.

The "end" of the war will be, at best for Russia, a stalemate. They have no chance of defeating Ukraine.

 

[VorZakone]

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[Pintu]

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[calodo2003]

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Ominous, if accurate.

 

[VorZakone]

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Does it not contradict this?

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[moses]

Why would they surrender when they are literally on the cusp of turning the tables on the Russians ? If anything, they will double down to fight harder because they think they can actually win this.

Turning the tables? I think an eventually retreating Russia and a demolished country is about the best they can hope for.

 

[Pintu]

Does it not contradict this?

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Not entirely. This says that Belarus is getting ready to deploy troops if such a decision was made. This suggests Russia might be starting to run low on some sort of manpower and would have to resort to its allies.

Let’s be honest, Lukashenko is a clown and Putin’s regime is the only reason he is still in power. He will do whatever he is told, even if in this case it is likely to end up costing him everything.

 

[Raoul]

Turning the tables? I think an eventually retreating Russia and a demolished country is about the best they can hope for.

Four weeks ago, Putin invaded with the intention of taking over all of Ukraine, so not allowing him to win the war by taking the country or massive swaths of Ukrainian territory, would be tantamount to turning the tables imo. Both sides have obviously taken massive casualties in the process, but Putin's overall goal when he invaded hasn't remotely worked out as he may have expected.

 

[Pintu]

Turning the tables? I think an eventually retreating Russia and a demolished country is about the best they can hope for.

The best they can hope for is liberating Crimea and defeating the separatists/ reaching an agreement to return the entire Donbas to Kyiv’s rule. Plus a clear path to join EU and maybe NATO.

Realistically Crimea and NATO membership seem to be a mere fantasy, but the rest is a reasonable goal, and they’ll only get there by resisting this invasion and repelling it.

The truth is that mistakes were made and the Minsk agreement should have led to a normalisation with the Donbas, giving the population there some sort of autonomy (like the status of Scotland in the UK), it would have deprived the Kremlin of the alibi they sold to their people to proceed with this invasion. I think it might still be possible to get an agreement like that with the separatists, it will be possible once Russia understand and accept they can’t get a military victory.

 

[moses]

Four weeks ago, Putin invaded with the intention of taking over all of Ukraine, so not allowing him to win the war by taking the country or massive swaths of Ukrainian territory, would be tantamount to turning the tables imo. Both sides have obviously taken massive casualties in the process, but Putin's overall goal when he invaded hasn't remotely worked out as he may have expected.

Yeah, in retrospect did he think he would conquer and hold Ukraine with 200,000 troops?

 

[Raoul]

Yeah, in retrospect did he think he would conquer and hold Ukraine with 200,000 troops?

Hard to say. He's probably somewhat delusional after 2 years of COVID isolation atop his already somewhat paranoid state of mind. He obviously knows he fecked up and is looking for a way out without looking utterly impotent to those around him.

 

[moses]

Hard to say. He's probably somewhat delusional after 2 years of COVID isolation atop his already someone paranoid state of mind. He obviously knows he fecked up and is looking for a way out without looking utterly impotent to those around him.

I'm just very wary of any narrative to be honest.

The idea that he is so powerful that his generals would let him march them off a ledge seems insane. Not impossible, at all, just insane.

 

[nimic]

The best they can hope for is liberating Crimea and defeating the separatists/ reaching an agreement to return the entire Donbas to Kyiv’s rule. Plus a clear path to join EU and maybe NATO.

Realistically Crimea and NATO membership seem to be a mere fantasy, but the rest is a reasonable goal, and they’ll only get there by resisting this invasion and repelling it.

The truth is that mistakes were made and the Minsk agreement should have led to a normalisation with the Donbas, giving the population there some sort of autonomy (like the status of Scotland in the UK), it would have deprived the Kremlin of the alibi they sold to their people to proceed with this invasion. I think it might still be possible to get an agreement like that with the separatists, it will be possible once Russia understand and accept they can’t get a military victory.

Unless Russia collapses completely, Ukraine has no chance (in this conflict) of re-taking Crimea. Donbas might be different.

 

[Sir Matt]

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26,000 Russian casualties so far. No doubt the number is higher given unaccounted for soldiers.

 

[Raoul]

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26,000 Russian casualties so far. No doubt the number is higher given unaccounted for soldiers.

The March 2nd number would obviously be far lower given that it was nearly 3 weeks ago. I've seen comments where analysts have been doubling or quadrupling Kremlin numbers to get to something closer to reality.

Of the 150k troops they sent into Ukraine, about 20 percent or either KIA or WIA, and of those still in theater, probably 80-90% suffer from poor morale and/or logistical problems.

 

[Pintu]

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26,000 Russian casualties so far. No doubt the number is higher given unaccounted for soldiers.

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[Cheimoon]

Turning the tables? I think an eventually retreating Russia and a demolished country is about the best they can hope for.

I agree. If Russia digs in and defends the eastern Ukrainian areas that it already has or almost has under control (part of Donbas, coastal strip to the Crimea), then there is little Ukraine can do to get them out of there. And if Russia accompanies that by destroying key Ukrainian urban, military, and other infrastructure, then they won't need much from Ukraine anymore beyond a promise to stay out of NATO to make Ukraine stay irrelevant for a very long time (while they rebuild from the ruins).

From that perspective, reducing Kyiv to ruins actually does have a purpose for Russia, especially once they have accepted that they can't take it.

 

[stefan92]

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26,000 Russian casualties so far. No doubt the number is higher given unaccounted for soldiers.

Mind boggling how close this is to the Ukrainian numbers for Russian casualties.

And the numbers themselves are horrible as well for the Russians.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

People should remember that most invaders take territory at the start of a war because they knew it was going to happen and went all in on the preparations for it.

At the start all the experts seemed to align around the fact that Russia had six months to win this war or its ability to logistically sustain it will collapse. People scoffed at the thought the war might go on that long. They could still be correct but it is not a laughably outrageous thought.

People fixated on the Ukrainians not being able to take back captured areas are missing the point. They don't really have too, all they have to do is reduce the ability of Russia to sustain and resupply those units in their country from Russia.

You starve in a tank just as quickly as you starve in a house. Once you are paused due to supply issues you are easier to target and the supply routes are harder to defend in enemy territory. The operational pause becomes a stalemate which becomes exhaustion and capitulation. All can happen while you are sat on your backside waiting to start fighting again.

So far I wouldn't say any of the initial possible outcomes can be totally ruled out except for one. A quick Russian victory making the war worth it to Russia. That is obviously off the table now.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Apparently the casualties of DNR and LNR troops are not counted by the RU MoD, but even excluding those:

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