Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[GlastonSpur]

My general take is that the West has now moved decisively from seeing Putin's Russia as an unfriendly state, to it now being seen as an enemy state ... one to be undermined, degraded and attacked by all means possible - military, economic, political, cultural, diplomatic - short of direct combat.

 

[VorZakone]

Terrible things happen in Mariupol. We have reports from multiple sources. And yet, there are no large scale protests inside Russia! Would you imagine what would happen in London if the British army was doing this today?

From this, I infer that the large majority of Russians support these actions of their government. I really feel stunned that there has been so little protest from Russians, either inside Russia or outside. Why does this happen? Do the majority of Russians consider Ukraine "a fake country" so they have the right to do whatever to it? But even if they believe that, why would anyone accept all this bombardment, the killings, the deportations? I really do not understand this.

I have asked this question before but I got no replies. Are there any Russians that can give us some perspective?

In the earlier weeks there were protests but I don't recall protests in Russia in the last week? Seemed to have died down.

You have to understand how severe the repression is though.

 

[spiriticon]

Terrible things happen in Mariupol. We have reports from multiple sources. And yet, there are no large scale protests inside Russia! Would you imagine what would happen in London if the British army was doing this today?

From this, I infer that the large majority of Russians support these actions of their government. I really feel stunned that there has been so little protest from Russians, either inside Russia or outside. Why does this happen? Do the majority of Russians consider Ukraine "a fake country" so they have the right to do whatever to it? But even if they believe that, why would anyone accept all this bombardment, the killings, the deportations? I really do not understand this.

I have asked this question before but I got no replies. Are there any Russians that can give us some perspective?

Dude, they get beaten up and charged in court if they protest. They have been trying.

There's a large proportion that do support the war (mostly older people I think), but there's also an equally large proportion who don't support it but are silenced.

 

[NotThatSoph]

Spending less than a minute thinking about it, I don't get why paying for Russian gas in rubles would "prop up" the ruble.

Presumably foreign states don't hold rubles and want to buy gas, while Russia wants to sell gas to get more rubles. So either 1) the foreign states use their dollars to buy gas, while Russia then sells their new dollars to buy rubles, or 2) the foreign states use their dollars to buy rubles, and then use their new rubles to buy gas.

We're currently doing 1). If we move to 2), the only thing that really changes is who buys the rubles. Non-rubles will have to be sold to buy rubles either way.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Terrible things happen in Mariupol. We have reports from multiple sources. And yet, there are no large scale protests inside Russia! Would you imagine what would happen in London if the British army was doing this today?

From this, I infer that the large majority of Russians support these actions of their government. I really feel stunned that there has been so little protest from Russians, either inside Russia or outside. Why does this happen? Do the majority of Russians consider Ukraine "a fake country" so they have the right to do whatever to it? But even if they believe that, why would anyone accept all this bombardment, the killings, the deportations? I really do not understand this.

I have asked this question before but I got no replies. Are there any Russians that can give us some perspective?

The large majority of Russians are simply denied access to information about what it is really going on. The Russian state now controls all the media.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Terrible things happen in Mariupol. We have reports from multiple sources. And yet, there are no large scale protests inside Russia! Would you imagine what would happen in London if the British army was doing this today?

From this, I infer that the large majority of Russians support these actions of their government. I really feel stunned that there has been so little protest from Russians, either inside Russia or outside. Why does this happen? Do the majority of Russians consider Ukraine "a fake country" so they have the right to do whatever to it? But even if they believe that, why would anyone accept all this bombardment, the killings, the deportations? I really do not understand this.

I have asked this question before but I got no replies. Are there any Russians that can give us some perspective?

Overall, protests inside Russia have totally lost their momentum. That's very grim for the future of the country if the masses don't want to make themselves heard today and on every day forward. We can say a lot about repression, but the point of those protests is to overstretch police capabilities until they (the police) go into burnout or have had enough of this shit from their own government. A form of attrition; that should be the plan.

 

[Withnail]

What's the difference between first hand reporting and people telling them directly?

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I think he's got mixed up there.

 

[Carolina Red]

The jury is still out. Thread here analysing it, lots of points suggesting fake. This would not be unprecedented for Russia if we remember the elaborate staged videos in the days running up to the invasion.

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@Dr. Dwayne here we go

 

[frostbite]

In the earlier weeks there were protests but I don't recall protests in Russia in the last week? Seemed to have died down.

You have to understand how severe the repression is though.

Sure, I understand the repression. But still, they have 10000 deaths of their own soldiers. Now compare this to the deaths of protesters. I know it is not the same, but still deaths are deaths. And then you have all these deaths of Ukrainians, both civilians and military. And all those people that lost their homes. Sorry, but compared to jailing 15000 thousand protesters ... well it seems next to nothing. I am not saying that protesting is easy, but if there were 1 million protesters in Moscow, surely they couldn't jail them all?

Let me add that I haven't seen any large scale protests from Russians in London or New York or SF, either... Sure, there were some protests, but nothing on the scale that I would expect, especially when I read what is happening in Mariupol. It seems to me that the majority of Russians simply don't care.

 

[stefan92]

Spending less than a minute thinking about it, I don't get why paying for Russian gas in rubles would "prop up" the ruble.

Presumably foreign states don't hold rubles and want to buy gas, while Russia wants to sell gas to get more rubles. So either 1) the foreign states use their dollars to buy gas, while Russia then sells their new dollars to buy rubles, or 2) the foreign states use their dollars to buy rubles, and then use their new rubles to buy gas.

We're currently doing 1). If we move to 2), the only thing that really changes is who buys the rubles. Non-rubles will have to be sold to buy rubles either way.

Your mistake is assuming that Russia buys Rubles with the Dollars/Euros they receive - they don't. They either build cash reserves for a scenario like the current one, or simply use those Dollars/Euros to pay for imports with it. Currently only a small amount of their oil/gas income actually gets converted to Rubles.

 

[RedTiger]

Spending less than a minute thinking about it, I don't get why paying for Russian gas in rubles would "prop up" the ruble.

Presumably foreign states don't hold rubles and want to buy gas, while Russia wants to sell gas to get more rubles. So either 1) the foreign states use their dollars to buy gas, while Russia then sells their new dollars to buy rubles, or 2) the foreign states use their dollars to buy rubles, and then use their new rubles to buy gas.

We're currently doing 1). If we move to 2), the only thing that really changes is who buys the rubles. Non-rubles will have to be sold to buy rubles either way.

Not like that mate. The Russians can't use dollars to buy rubles because then they'll be stuck with rubles that no-one is accepting. They need other countries to buy the rubles

 

[NotThatSoph]

Your mistake is assuming that Russia buys Rubles with the Dollars/Euros they receive - they don't. They either build cash reserves for a scenario like the current one, or simply use those Dollars/Euros to pay for imports with it. Currently only a small amount of their oil/gas income actually gets converted to Rubles.

In that case Russia will have to sell the rubles they receive to buy Dollars and Euros, 1) and 2) changes to:

- 1) Foreign states buy their gas with Dollars/Euros. Russia either keeps it, or buys imported goods.
- 2) Foreign states buy Rubles. Russia sells their Rubles to buy Dollars/Euros, theen either keeps them or buys imported goods.

Not like that mate. The Russians can't use dollars to buy rubles because then they'll be stuck with rubles that no-one is accepting. They need other countries to buy the rubles

If people aren't accepting Rubles, why would Russia want Rubles? Why does it matter whether it's Russia or Germany who buys the very exact same Ruble from someone? The same amount of foreign currency is sold, the same amount of Rubles is bought, the same amount of gas is exchanged.

 

[stefan92]

In that case Russia will have to sell the rubles they receive to buy Dollars and Euros, 1) and 2) changes to:

- 1) Foreign states buy their gas with Dollars/Euros. Russia either keeps it, or buys imported goods.
- 2) Foreign states buy Rubles. Russia sells their Rubles to buy Dollars/Euros, theen either keeps them or buys imported goods.



If people aren't accepting Rubles, why would Russia want Rubles? Why does it matter whether it's Russia or Germany who buys the very exact same Ruble from someone? The same amount of foreign currency is sold, the same amount of Rubles is bought, the same amount of gas is exchanged.

No the amount changes. Russia doesn't need to buy Dollars/Euros with the Rubles they want to get for their oil/gas. They still have big cash reserves (although partially frozen), they won't be able to import much stuff due to the sanctions, and they still accept non-Ruble payments from states they still consider to be friendly, those will get them enough foreign cash to finance the limited imports that will happen.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

@Dr. Dwayne here we go

Yeah I saw this after you mentioned it. Video is a fake imho, not least for how those men respond to being shot with, presumably, a Kalashnikov 7.62x39 round.

 

[Beans]

It's a weird kind of theft. Obviously a lot of value for the true owners but what is Russia going to do, sell them? They're depreciating assets that require a lot of mechanical upkeep that Russia won't likely be able to maintain.

I think they're at least talking about taking everything that any business has left behind that are boycotting. Not much they can do in response, turning McDonald's into Uncle Vlad's and running these planes into the ground are some of the few moves they have.

I have to say selling oil and gas to Europe in rubles only is very clever. But it sounds like Anatoly Chubais fleeing is a sign that is all going to fall apart, he's supposedly the architect of the Russian economy.

 

[alexthelion]

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Truth.

 

[Beans]

fecking grim:

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Another page out of Stalin's book.

 

[NotThatSoph]

No the amount changes. Russia doesn't need to buy Dollars/Euros with the Rubles they want to get for their oil/gas. They still have big cash reserves (although partially frozen), they won't be able to import much stuff due to the sanctions, and they still accept non-Ruble payments from states they still consider to be friendly, those will get them enough foreign cash to finance the limited imports that will happen.

I'm moving this to the economics thread, don't want to derail.

 

[GlastonSpur]

The BBC reports:

"Russia has deployed mercenaries from the infamous Wagner Group to eastern Ukraine, the UK's Ministry of Defence says.

In its latest operational update, the MoD said that the group is expected to deploy more than 1,000 personnel - including senior leaders of the group - to "undertake combat operations" in Ukraine.

"Due to heavy losses and a largely stalled invasion, Russia has likely been forced to reprioritise Wagner personnel for Ukraine at the expense of operations in Africa and Syria," the MoD added.

The Wagner group is considered one of Russia's most secretive organisations. Officially, it doesn't exist, but up to 10,000 operatives are believed to have taken at least one contract with the group over the last seven years to go to hotspots including Syria, Libya and the Central African Republic."

 

[Simbo]

I thought that recognizing the Russian language as official language would be the easiest request to accept, considering that many Ukrainians speak Russian anyway and/or are bilingual.

In a way, its kind of impossible, as it's not something that can be enforced. Accepting something like that would probably even hasten the abandonment of the language in Ukraine.

 

[Rightnr]

Having something as an official language goes well beyond the spoken language.

It probably means it has to be taught or offered in school and official docs have to be in that language. Makes it that much easier to Russify Ukraine, instead of what the youth of today is more likely to lean towards which is English and other EU languages.

 

[Simbo]

Interesting how Russian propaganda can't even repeat the comment Biden made.

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[The Firestarter]

Interesting how Russian propaganda can't even repeat the comment Biden made.

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Imagine being that paranoid.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Interesting how Russian propaganda can't even repeat the comment Biden made.

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It's not censorship, it's a special quotations operation.

 

[Carolina Red]

Yeah I saw this after you mentioned it. Video is a fake imho, not least for how those men respond to being shot with, presumably, a Kalashnikov 7.62x39 round.

Same thoughts here. Based on every animal I’ve ever shot with a .30 calibre round, I would expect one delivered that close to do visible, catastrophic damage.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Same thoughts here. Based on every animal I’ve ever shot with a .30 calibre round, I would expect one delivered that close to do visible, catastrophic damage.

Exactly! Those guys are barely groaning and rolling about a little bit.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I think they're at least talking about taking everything that any business has left behind that are boycotting. Not much they can do in response, turning McDonald's into Uncle Vlad's and running these planes into the ground are some of the few moves they have.

I have to say selling oil and gas to Europe in rubles only is very clever. But it sounds like Anatoly Chubais fleeing is a sign that is all going to fall apart, he's supposedly the architect of the Russian economy.

A Big Vlad combo sounds pretty delicious to be fair.

 

[stevoc]

Terrible things happen in Mariupol. We have reports from multiple sources. And yet, there are no large scale protests inside Russia! Would you imagine what would happen in London if the British army was doing this today?

From this, I infer that the large majority of Russians support these actions of their government. I really feel stunned that there has been so little protest from Russians, either inside Russia or outside. Why does this happen? Do the majority of Russians consider Ukraine "a fake country" so they have the right to do whatever to it? But even if they believe that, why would anyone accept all this bombardment, the killings, the deportations? I really do not understand this.

I have asked this question before but I got no replies. Are there any Russians that can give us some perspective?

A Rally calling for amnesty for British Soldiers?

Anti-War protests?

Or probably both.

 

[Ramshock]

Another page out of Stalin's book.

Oh my just wait until you read about how the british empire moved people like cattle to suit their machinations.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Interesting how Russian propaganda can't even repeat the comment Biden made.

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That is interesting. Only complaint being that we have censored Russian media which is a kind of state-directed infantilization of the people (not intelligent enough to try comprehend propaganda for themselves) and an incredibly illiberal policy. So that ironically it is a kind of propaganda that we have to take these statements on their own merit as we're denied access to the source.

Best alternatives are the likes of Russian Pravda

https://english.pravda.ru/opinion/150874-regime_change_washington/

which frame it slightly different but do report it.

 

[GlastonSpur]

That is interesting. Only complaint being that we have censored Russian media which is a kind of state-directed infantilization of the people (not intelligent enough to try comprehend propaganda for themsleves) and an incredibly illiberal policy. So that ironically it is a kind of propaganda that we have to take these statements on their own merit as we're denied access to the source.

Banning media that is entirely controlled and directed by the state (which in Russia now means all media), and which lies about pretty much everything, is in my view justified in a situation where Russia, under Putin, can now only be seen as an enemy state. Should we have allowed Nazi-run newspapers to be published in Britain during WWII?

For decades, in the name of "liberal" tolerance, we allowed the likes of "Russia Today" to pump out their lies in the UK. But now the blinkers are off and we see Putin's regime for the brutal, deceitful enemy it really is. For as long as Putin is in power, we face an existential struggle between democracy and freedom vs. brutal dictatorship. No more Mr Nice Guy.

 

[Carolina Red]

not intelligent enough to try comprehend propaganda for themselves

Worth noting that we live in the era of QAnon

 

[GlastonSpur]

Worth noting that we live in the era of QAnon

Indeed. Even now there are idiots out there claiming that the videos and images of Mariupol, a city that has been razed to the ground, are all faked and come from a specially-designed film set.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Banning media that is entirely controlled and directed by the state (which in Russia now means all media), and which lies about pretty much everything, is in my view justified in a situation where Russia, under Putin, can now only be seen as an enemy state. Should we have allowed Nazi-run newspapers to be published in Britain during WWII?

For decades, in the name of "liberal" tolerance, we allowed the likes of "Russia Today" to pump out their lies in the UK. But now the blinkers are off and we see Putin's regime for the brutal, deceitful enemy it really is. For as long as Putin is in power, we face an existential struggle between democracy and freedom vs. brutal dictatorship. No more Mr Nice Guy.

I don't agree with (probably never will). If Russian propaganda were that powerful, how come we know all the things they've done? It isn't a non-factor but it isn't the existential threat it's made out to be either. Historians and other professionals (including journalists) need access to all perspectives and also know how to make allowance for propagandistic value (they've been trained to do it).

Worth noting that we live in the era of QAnon

True, but conspiracy has been around since the beginning of the internet and well before it, too (Protocols of Zion, Hitlerism). It's better to refute what is untrue rather than ban it if your interest is really in helping people see sense (if you were QAnon or pro-Kremlin before this, I doubt the ban will have moved you toward reason but probably entrenched you even further).

 

[GlastonSpur]

I don't agree with (probably never will). If Russian propaganda were that powerful, how come we know all the things they've done? It isn't a non-factor but it isn't the existential threat it's made out to be either. Historians and other professionals (including journalists) need access to all perspectives and also know how to make allowance for propagandistic value (they've been trained to do it). ...

Let me repeat my question: Should we have allowed Nazi-run newspapers to be published in Britain during WWII?

As for "Historians and other professionals (including journalists)" ... historians can have access for their look back after the dust has settled, and professionals like journalists can I'm sure still access whatever they need to. The BBC, for example, continue to monitor all Russian TV and radio.

 

[Carolina Red]

True, but conspiracy has been around since the beginning of the internet and well before it, too (Protocols of Zion, Hitlerism). It's better to refute what is untrue rather than ban it if your interest is really in helping people see sense (if you were QAnon or pro-Kremlin before this, I doubt the ban will have moved you toward reason but probably entrenched you even further).

If someone’s bleeding, you stop the bleed. This Russian propaganda bullshit is a bleed that needs to be stopped. There’s folks in Russia who believe this invasion is a good thing and that things that are happening aren’t happening because of it, despite their family in Ukraine telling them what’s going on. Hell, I had in-laws who believed Covid was a hoax because of propaganda when their own daughter was running a Covid ICU. It’s nice to have ideals, but this is a war. That’s kinda where ideals go to die.

 

[Carolina Red]

Indeed. Even now there are idiots out there claiming that the videos and images of Mariupol, a city that has been razed to the ground, are all faked and come from a specially-designed film set.

Exactly. That shit needs to be contained.

 

[nimic]

True, but conspiracy has been around since the beginning of the internet and well before it, too (Protocols of Zion, Hitlerism). It's better to refute what is untrue rather than ban it if your interest is really in helping people see sense (if you were QAnon or pro-Kremlin before this, I doubt the ban will have moved you toward reason but probably entrenched you even further).

The issue is that both of your historical examples are also great examples of things that weren't banned, and where clear and obvious attempts were made to (successfully) refute their ideas in the public sphere, and the outcome of both was genocide.

 

[GlastonSpur]

"Remember when Russia massed a 40-mile mechanised column to mount an overwhelming attack on Kyiv? The convoy ground to a halt largely because of a series of night ambushes carried out by a team of 30 Ukrainian special forces & drone operators on quad bikes."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...he-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Let me repeat my question: Should we have allowed Nazi-run newspapers to be published in Britain during WWII?

As for "Historians and other professionals (including journalists)" ... historians can have access for their look back after the dust has settled, and professionals like journalists can I'm sure still access whatever they need to. The BBC, for example, continue to monitor all Russian TV and radio.

Exactly. That shit needs to be contained.

The issue is that both of your historical examples are also great examples of things that weren't banned, and where clear and obvious attempts were made to (successfully) refute their ideas in the public sphere, and the outcome of both was genocide.

Put this invasion into perspective. It is basically akin to the Soviet-Afghan War. There remained journalistic exchange and diplomatic exchange even at the height of the Cold War when US/USSR were fighting each other by proxy on simultaneous fronts.

Personally, I want the Russian perspective as well as the Ukrainian perspective and the Western perspective and the rest of the world's perspective, too. I can understand arguments against it, but despite legitimate concerns it's not something I'm going to agree with. If the Russians were an actual, immediate, threat (war-threat) to us, I would agree. They're not, though. The only threat here is a potential nuclear war because if it goes hot then it will go nuclear as a matter of fact and all the propaganda won't matter a bit. Also, the people who swallow Russian propaganda are the same people you should be convincing of its absurdity (by pointing out the absurdity of our own propaganda, too). And these people will find a way to get that content somewhere else. All you're doing is pushing them further into individualistc silos.

If we're going to be told about Russian media by Western media, then the first thing I'm going to do is go straight to Russian media because of a healthy distrust of Western media (cultivated over a lifetime and based in their outright lies and manipulative tactics). One set of half-truths against another with the two being weighed by the self-interest of different ruling classes in different states (or different states if you don't buy the class line). It just means I have to read against the grain of Pravda instead of RT. And if that goes, then some other Russian outlet.

Just on the covid thing. That was mostly Western people in my experience. Not saying Russians might not have tried to push it, but there was enormous vaccine hesitancy in Russia, too. And social media was the biggest problem there, not Russian media (the conspiracies you saw predated Russian broadcast establishments in many cases including anti-Semitic theories). Also, the US has to be the greatest exporter of conspiracy theories in modern history (well before Russia).