Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[the hea]

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My guess is that they are looking to send the M270/M142 launch platforms and MLRS rockets for them but not ATACMS missiles. The normal MLRS rockets still have an range of up to 60km with good precision so still a very potent weapon system against the Russian artillery.

 

[NicolaSacco]

This was the bare minimum and it’s being branded by some as a win.

Actuallly it went like this.

The Parliament voted for an “immediate oil and gas embargo”.. the Commission said ok but in fact basically ignored the gas component (saying it takes time..) but at least they recommended a total oil ban. Now because of the Hungarian veto we only have a partial oil ban.

Disappointing but it’s better than nothing, and if the gas embargo actually happens then it’s pretty potent. I can’t believe Hungary imports *that* much Russian fuel as a proportion of the EU.

 

[shamans]

Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.

 

[shamans]

Disappointing but it’s better than nothing, and if the gas embargo actually happens then it’s pretty potent. I can’t believe Hungary imports *that* much Russian fuel as a proportion of the EU.

Meanwhile India has increased their import of Russian oil so I have my doubts as to how much this will impact Putin.

 

[MoskvaRed]

Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.

These events taken on a logic of their own as leaders (particularly a “strongman” like Putin) try to save face and avoid the potentially fatal consequences of being humiliated. Donbas and the land corridor is no real prize compared the economic, military and diplomatic damage incurred (and they would be inheriting a wasteland) but it is enough to claim victory of sorts and weaken Ukraine.

 

[Raoul]

Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.

His logic is pretty simple. Invade and take over Ukraine to make it a Russian proxy in the Belarus mold, so that the ideals of a stronger, democratic version of Ukraine never have a chance to flight along his borders, and eventually within Russia itself. Ultimately, Democracy is Putin's kryptonite, especially when espoused by neighborly intra-slavic means. He knows it will destroy his corrupt dictatorship if he doesn't do anything to stop it.

 

[NicolaSacco]

Meanwhile India has increased their import of Russian oil so I have my doubts as to how much this will impact Putin.

I guess it depends what India pays. There will always be a market for Russian fossil fuels, but the less available buyers the cheaper the price. If Russia could have simply transferred its oil from Europe to India at the same price it would have done so years ago.

 

[shamans]

These events taken on a logic of their own as leaders (particularly a “strongman” like Putin) try to save face and avoid the potentially fatal consequences of being humiliated. Donbas and the land corridor is no real prize compared the economic, military and diplomatic damage incurred (and they would be inheriting a wasteland) but it is enough to claim victory of sorts and weaken Ukraine.

Saving face is important especially for people like Putin. This is why I'm a little worried with increased aggression towards Russia but of course it's not like there's a choice right now. I'm certain foreign affairs experts are smart enough to realize Putin needs a face saving here.

That said, the opposite also applies. I'm sure western powers want Putin to realize they won't back down and give him the pleasure of saving face because then anyone could hold them ransom in the future. It's a difficult game to play.

 

[shamans]

I guess it depends what India pays. There will always be a market for Russian fossil fuels, but the less available buyers the cheaper the price. If Russia could have simply transferred its oil from Europe to India at the same price it would have done so years ago.

No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[ThierryFabregas]

Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.

He thought he could annexe the whole of Ukraine or at least the very oil and gas rich Black Sea. He didn't think sanctions would be this bad because Europe needs his oil and gas. He essentially gambled and lost. Getting a land bridge to the Crimea and increasing the land next to the black sea will increase Russia's economic output in terms of oil and gas production

 

[Krakenzero]

No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.

IIRC when Venezuela was sanctioned the measures took months, even years to make its full effect, and even then it was debatable if that was the main cause of the venezuelan economic crisis. Considering that, I wouldn't put too much hope in the sanctions as a gamechanger.

Nevertheless, if companies were selling oil at 110 a barrel with a cost of (let's say) 40 and now are selling it at 90 with likely higher costs (materials, logistics, less manpower available), that probably is gonna impact the economy overall. And an unstable economy tends to make leaderships and institutions unstable as well.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[McGrathsipan]

This is primed to last years isnt it

 

[GlastonSpur]

IIRC when Venezuela was sanctioned the measures took months, even years to make its full effect, and even then it was debatable if that was the main cause of the venezuelan economic crisis. Considering that, I wouldn't put too much hope in the sanctions as a gamechanger.

Nevertheless, if companies were selling oil at 110 a barrel with a cost of (let's say) 40 and now are selling it at 90 with likely higher costs (materials, logistics, less manpower available), that probably is gonna impact the economy overall. And an unstable economy tends to make leaderships and institutions unstable as well.

Indeed. Ships are forced on longer voyages when carrying Urals crude from Russia's western ports to Asia rather than Europe, with a one-way journey to China apparently often taking about two months.

 

[Raoul]

This is primed to last years isnt it

Not enough resources available to make it last years. Many months for sure though.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[GlastonSpur]

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[NicolaSacco]

No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.

I guess we’ll see the effects when world fossil fuel prices in general go down, as they will do at some point.

 

[maniak]

As for the relaxed training — it’s been the case since the very beginning, people sign a contract and get transferred to Ukraine in less than a week.

Absolute insanity.

 

[calodo2003]

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[Frosty]

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[VorZakone]

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It seems a lot of Ukrainians have been deported to Russia. Why are the Russians spending all that logistical capacity on deporting Ukrainians?

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[GlastonSpur]

It seems a lot of Ukrainians have been deported to Russia. Why are the Russians spending all that logistical capacity on deporting Ukrainians?

Because they aim to erase Ukrainian national identity, history, culture, land ... everything.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[GlastonSpur]

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[GlastonSpur]

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[ThierryFabregas]

It seems a lot of Ukrainians have been deported to Russia. Why are the Russians spending all that logistical capacity on deporting Ukrainians?

Because they aim to erase Ukrainian national identity, history, culture, land ... everything.

You also have to wonder if all these Ukranians being deported aren't just being murdered as part of a mass genocide.

 

[ThierryFabregas]

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Just need another deal with Somalia to target these ships for piracy. Give them a lend lease for stealing Russian Oil.

 

[calodo2003]

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[GlastonSpur]

You also have to wonder if all these Ukranians being deported aren't just being murdered as part of a mass genocide.

Indeed.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

You also have to wonder if all these Ukranians being deported aren't just being murdered as part of a mass genocide.

That is part of the legal definition of genocide; it doesn’t matter in that sense whether they are systematically murdered or not. Erasing their identity as Ukrainian by deportation and forced adoption of children, which is being fast-tracked (allegedly), contribute towards meeting the standards of whether a genocide is taking place.

 

[GlastonSpur]

'I watched from afar Russia’s latest merciless assault on Severodonetsk':

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61634050

 

[NotThatSoph]

That is part of the legal definition of genocide; it doesn’t matter in that sense whether they are systematically murdered or not. Erasing their identity as Ukrainian by deportation and forced adoption of children, which is being fast-tracked (allegedly), contribute towards meeting the standards of whether a genocide is taking place.

I'm more comfortable sticking with ethnic cleansing, but I guess word choice doesn't matter too much.

 

[Beans]

Air force to get largest share of Germany's 100 billion euro defence bulk-up

https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...-100-billion-euro-defence-bulk-up-2022-05-31/

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I'm more comfortable sticking with ethnic cleansing, but I guess word choice doesn't matter too much.

Yeah, it is all terrible; I’m not sure if me being pedantic about it is necessary. But being that it’s meeting the criteria established by the UN I feel comfortable using it in this context regarding Russia’s actions taken as a whole.

 

[Frosty]

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[Carolina Red]

Excellent summary thread of the last 9 days of combat.

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[Raoul]

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The leaked audio appears to reveal what I’ve suspected for some time - decimated Russian units suffering from low morale and borderline mutiny.