Gehrman
Phallic connoisseur, unlike shamans
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2019
- Messages
- 11,285
PaxiOur Russian bros on here are about to be sent to the front lines for the motherland.
PaxiOur Russian bros on here are about to be sent to the front lines for the motherland.
That's what will more than likely stop him from pressing the button, someone who has kids and wants to see them grow up and also has a gun near putin, because he would know what MAD is.I don't think he ever could. I very much doubt he has a direct button to himself just in his bedroom. There would need to be approvals from others, even at a basic level of aiming the bomb somewhere. Someone else will know and all will stop him. Even if he is on a suicide mission, the rest aren't
If Russia nuke Ukraine then what ?No one is sure that nuclear weapons are off the table, but what can one do about it? A Russian hypersonic or ballistic nuclear missile can reach just about anywhere in Europe. They could nuke the UK for any stupid reason they can make up, and it doesn't have to be Ukraine. The only thing I'm 99% confident about is that we (the 'West') would never be the first to press the button.
If Russia wants a nuclear war, they will have one. The reason for starting one is really quite irrelevant.
I totally agree with your sentiment that we shouldn't let ourselves be slaves to nuclear fear.
But the attacks have already been happening on the official Russian territory in Belgorod region and self claimed territory of Crimea, and Russia did nothing. They, as always, are trying to scare off the west and making us reduce our support for Ukraine. Hope we don't fall for it.I don't think I like where this is going
Large mobilisation and presumably movement of troops and equipment through the winter whilst they have a referendum
They then declare the region's part of Russia and say any attack on those regions is a direct attack on Russia
A lot of countries won't recognise the referendum and certainly Ukraine won't therefore attacks happen
Then... Well it's hard to see either side backing down
I think stuff like people who have already served in the army are conscripted.Wha does partial mobilisation means?
Putin’s MO is that he always wants to look like he’s prepared to escalate further and further. Further than the West would be willing to go. He’s spent a lot of time building up that image, but that’s all it is really. A projection that he needs the West to believe to dissuade them from standing up to him. I don’t buy it at all. I think he’s a rational person, under all that facade, and I think he knows in a full scale war or a nuclear exchange, that he would come off worst.But the attacks have already been happening on the official Russian territory in Belgorod region and self claimed territory of Crimea, and Russia did nothing. They, as always, are trying to scare off the west and making us reduce our support for Ukraine. Hope we don't fall for it.
I'm not eligible for conscription in any scenario, thankfully.@harms I hope you and your loved ones can avoid being called up.
Do you have any idea how these news are received in Russia? Oh and has Putin called it a war yet? "Special military operation" doesn't sound like something you need the reservists for.
I don't believe that he will personally but we're certainly way beyond the point where we could've assumed that Putin won't do something because it's not rational.Putin using nuclear wars because he is losing (debateable) in Ukraine? I mean I think some of you guys are either scaredy cats or overestimating Putin's craziness.
How can there possibly be 300k veterans to call up? Are they going to be raiding the old folks homes?I'm not eligible for conscription in any scenario, thankfully.
It's still a "special military operation" in his words, I've looked it up specifically. It's hard to get a clear picture on how people reacted to that from my perspective, I'm not following any pro-Putin/government media directly and nor do I regularly talk with people who support the war. We'll get a better understanding at the evening, I imagine, so far I can only hope that this will prove to be a final mistake that cripples the regime. They want to call up around 300k if Shoigu is to be believed, surely it has to provoke a counterreaction!
He's slightly mistaken in numbers.Yep, the war is going so well that the next logical step is to call a mobilisation of course.
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I think the average bi-annual wave of conscriptions calls up around 150k. They serve 1 year (it was 2 years originally but they've cut the time of service in half) and get back to their homes, listed as potential reserves. Again, I don't know the exact numbers but there should be a lot of those reserves available in theory. But I doubt that they'd be happy to get called up + it's not like they've got any combat experience during their service, you get almost no relevant training aside from sweeping up the platz, smuggling phones and cigarettes through security and making tanks out of snow, which should come in handy in the upcoming winter military campaign.How can there possibly be 300k veterans to call up? Are they going to be raiding the old folks homes?
Oh I see, so effectively they didn't serve a 2nd year and in exchange they get to go and freeze to death in Ukraine? Not far off a general mobilisation at this point then...I think the average bi-annual wave of conscriptions calls up around 150k. They serve 1 year (it was 2 years originally but they've cut the time of service in half) and get back to their homes, listed as potential reserves. Again, I don't know the exact numbers but there should be a lot of those reserves available in theory. But I doubt that they'd be happy to get called up + it's not like they've got any combat experience during their service, you get almost no relevant training aside from sweeping up the platz, smuggling phones and cigarettes through security and making tanks out of snow, which should come in handy in the upcoming winter military campaign.
he doesn’t win, he just ensures everyone loses as badly as he does.What does Putin "win" by using nukes? Is there any military goal that using nukes would accomplish, other than causing fear (which can and has been done without nukes)?
On the flip side, they lose their main deterrent, any support or empathy they could have left (it's kind of difficult to disguise a nuke as a false flag operation from Ukraine) and the few economic partners they have left. And that's not even considering the possibility of retaliation.
I'm not saying it is impossible that happens, it's just counterintuitive and unlikely.
Is he really kaiser soze though?Putin’s MO is that he always wants to look like he’s prepared to escalate further and further. Further than the West would be willing to go. He’s spent a lot of time building up that image, but that’s all it is really………..
I think those who served for 2 years (so, those who were conscripted before) 2008 are also available for conscription, so no.Oh I see, so effectively they didn't serve a 2nd year and in exchange they get to go and freeze to death in Ukraine? Not far off a general mobilisation at this point then...
It's probably the only option he has to change the course of the war that he's losing. Is it going to be successful? Not likely. Is it going to cost tens of thousands of additional lives gone? Most certainly, but he doesn't care about those, be it the lives of Ukrainians, civilian and military, or the lives of his own constituents.I don't understand how the mobilisation would help their case and fix their problems . Morale is low as it is and winter is coming . Logistics are a mess , they don't seem to be able to train and supply not even the existing conscripts .
I am a fool indeed… they really aired his pre-recorded escalatory message. Mind, he knows he is being seen as a wan*er right now, and a pariah without any support: even real wan*ers like Lukashenko and Kadyrov cannot believe he is doing this for real. He is not even buying time because there is no way any mobilisation can impact this war in the sense he likes: his army, his hierarchy, his packages have been found out as a corrupt, inept, gigantic fraud.His so called Anti-Western friends told him to stop this non-sensical war no later than three days ago, China still needs the West (and a sane world) to trade, India is booming and do not want to waste their window, Lavrov just entered the US to attend UN meeting, his pre-recorded call-to-the-nation has been abrutly postponed… mmh, I may well be a fool tomorrow but Mr P seems nearer to being done than us just now.
I expect they're talking about it, he's killed a lot of important people this year.Can't believe other senior Russians are standing by and watching this unfold and are not collectively moving against Putin. Its madness.
Nukes will be met by more nukes and its curtains for everyone in Russia. The world will not just sit and watch.I am a fool indeed… they really aired his pre-recorded escalatory message. Mind, he knows he is being seen as a wan*er right now, and a pariah without any support: even real wan*ers like Lukashenko and Kadyrov cannot believe he is doing this for real. He is not even buying time because there is no way any mobilisation can impact this war in the sense he likes: his army, his hierarchy, his packages have been found out as a corrupt, inept, gigantic fraud.
This only leads to a quick endgame, imho, which is as necessary as scary: can he really throw nukes?
Is this a serious question?Has there ever been a civil war in Russia?
Russia has won wars before by just throwing numbers at them.I don't understand how the mobilisation would help their case and fix their problems . Morale is low as it is and winter is coming . Logistics are a mess , they don't seem to be able to train and supply not even the existing conscripts .
Different timesRussia has won wars before by just throwing numbers at them.
Lenin Avenue?There isn't even a Lenin street in Moscow.
The Russian military does not seem to realise that.Different times