Will you ever lose a game again? Maybe we should just award you the title and save everyone the trouble.
Title Race 22/23
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You think Arsenal will regress to winning just over half our games in the second half of the season?
This is based on pure hopium.
You are not good enough to sustain this level of performance through 38 games.
If you draw against Crystal Palace for example and lose to use you'll be 11 points behind us while playing a game more...good luck making that up while also having fixture congestion to worry about.
But we don't need to...if we regress to a performance on the level of Newcastle over the next 18 games that'll put us on 85 points with 2 games to play...
Many Man Utd fans are ignoring the Mathematics...the points are on the board already...time will tell what happens.
Right, so its a guaranteed win? Our record at Emirates is not the best.
Neville says alot of things, he said united better of with Poch before we got Ten Hag.
Arsenal have played 18 games, 47 points so even if you double it without being half way through, its 94 points.
Double United's and we get 76 points
What evidence is there that Arsenal can't get that, because going by this season they do not look like they are dropping points, more often than not every win is very convincing.
That's your opinion, not a fact.
Arsenal have shown they are capable of sustaining this. They do not need to sustain it for 38 games, they could wrap this league by 33 / 34 games.
Most of their wins are so convincing that they have won games by half time. They have led in most games by half time by at least 1 if not 2 goals.
No. I'm pointing out that Arsenal can do considerably worse for the next 18 games than they did in the first 18 games, and still finish with a very strong season. Whether it's 10-4-4 or 12-2-4 or 8-6-4. In fact, they could very well win the title even if it's the last of those.
What I consider extremely implausible (and not merely extremely unlikely) is that they'll end up with 9 more points than the Invincibles, which is where their current pace puts them.
And you need to look up what regression to the mean is if you think that would in any way be remotely unusual or surprising.
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And many act as if we'll hit it.
It's a forum.
Oh boy, I'll be coming back to this one in a few weeks I reckon.
Why have we ever bothered with full seasons? Could have just got to Christmas and doubled the points every year and saved a lot of hassle.
It's always hard to envisage a period of poorer form creeping in. Arsenal are certainly in that mode, and United fans are getting there too. We are playing this well now so why shouldn't we continue to do so? Football rarely works out that way.
We have to get 3 points at palace and then beat arsenal to even think about being in the title race. If we can do that MAYBE we’re on to something. Just maybe.
It’s over reading this thread. No point in playing any games anymore really. Arsenal have already won them.
Gooner In Peace will have us winning the Superbowl and the Royal Rumble shortly as well.
Ask yourself, how many cases do you know of where a team has had the same number of points in the second half of the season as they had in the first? How many could you find, if you looked it up? How usual do you think it is for that to happen?
Reality does not work in the way that unless something specific and major changes, the second half will work out more or less the same as the first. Very often, it doesn't.
Fecking hell
Agreed. Youse have done fantastic so far and we really have got our act together since the 6-3 loss. Can help but just be buzzing and excited about the rest of the season.
Arsenal is the greatest football team since sliced bread according to him.
Dont get me wrong you're doing fantastic at the moment and are main favorites for the title but there are positive, optimistic posts and there are then @GoonerInPeace ones.
20/21. First half.
1 | | Manchester City | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 34:14 | 20 | 41 |
2 | | Manchester United | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 36:25 | 11 | 40 |
3 | | Leicester City | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 35:21 | 14 | 38 |
4 | | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 35:17 | 18 | 36 |
5 | | Liverpool FC | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 37:22 | 15 | 34 |
6 | | Everton FC | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 29:24 | 5 | 33 |
7 | | West Ham United | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 27:22 | 5 | 32 |
8 | | Aston Villa | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 31:20 | 11 | 30 |
9 | | Chelsea FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 33:23 | 10 | 29 |
10 | | Southampton FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 26:24 | 2 | 29 |
11 | | Arsenal FC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 23:19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | | Leeds United | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33:34 | -1 | 26 |
13 | | Crystal Palace | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22:33 | -11 | 23 |
14 | | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21:29 | -8 | 22 |
15 | | Burnley FC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 11:23 | -12 | 20 |
16 | | Newcastle United | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 18:32 | -14 | 19 |
17 | | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 22:29 | -7 | 17 |
18 | | Fulham FC | 19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 16:28 | -12 | 13 |
19 | | West Bromwich Albion | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15:43 | -28 | 11 |
20 | | Sheffield United | 19 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10:32 | -22 | 5 |
| Champions League | |
| Europa League | |
| Relegation |
20/21, second half.1 | Manchester City | 19 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 49:18 | 31 | 45 |
2 | Chelsea FC | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 25:13 | 12 | 38 |
3 | Liverpool FC | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:20 | 11 | 35 |
4 | Manchester United | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 37:19 | 18 | 34 |
5 | Arsenal FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 32:20 | 12 | 34 |
6 | West Ham United | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 35:25 | 10 | 33 |
7 | Leeds United | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 29:20 | 9 | 33 |
8 | Leicester City | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 33:29 | 4 | 28 |
9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 26 |
10 | Newcastle United | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 28:30 | -2 | 26 |
11 | Everton FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 26 |
12 | Aston Villa | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24:26 | -2 | 25 |
13 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18:17 | 1 | 24 |
14 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 15:23 | -8 | 23 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19:33 | -14 | 21 |
16 | Burnley FC | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 22:32 | -10 | 19 |
17 | Sheffield United | 19 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 10:31 | -21 | 18 |
18 | West Bromwich Albion | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20:33 | -13 | 15 |
19 | Fulham FC | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 11:25 | -14 | 15 |
20 | Southampton FC | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 21:44 | -23 | 14 |
Maybe next time read the exchanges before making a comment on the last one.
So because Gary Neville thinks they'll get less than 90 points its factual? So for me to make a prediction based on what has gone on this season is wrong, yet the poster saying it feels like a season like 10 years ago is ok.
Don't think I'd put that in the "firm and credible prediction" category, no.I dont care about the rest of the league, but I will entertain this for the title.
21/22 - Mancity after 19 games 47 points - after 38 - 93 points - which is 46 points in second
20/21 - City after 19 games 41 points - after 38 - 86 points - 45 points in second half
19/20 - Liverpool 55 after 19 and 99 after 39 - 44 points but as you know they had won the league by March.
18/19 - Liverpool 51 after 19 and 97 overall which is 46 points
17/18 - City 55 after 19 and 100 at the end so 45 in second half.
I asked myself and I looked it up, in the last 5 seasons teams get similar amount of points in the first half as to second when they are title chasing.
It is quite clear that there is a 5/6 point difference. So I dont see your bolded REALITY.
I'm not sure based on your comments.
Do you think Arsenal will win the league?
Yes.
So of all those numbered in just one season a team had the same or more points in the 2nd half of the season than in the 1st.
Thanks.
Yes, but also I suggest you read. I said I am doubling Arsenal just to see where they get to after 18 games, not even 19. So if they get 3 points in the next game, I have basically deducted 3 points. They still hit 90 points
Not the 80 like the poster thinks they will hit.1. Have a look at the 20/21 halves tables above. You will find more cases of big points differentials than the opposite.
2. 3 of the 5 cases you quote yourself actually have quite substantial point differentials
3. For obvious reasons, big differentials among halves for the eventual title winners are much less likely than for teams in general - because you are unlikely to win the title if you have one bad half, and you are also unlikely to have a much higher point total in one half if you also had a high point total in the other.
I read. @justsomebloke's point was second half of the season rarely works the same as the 1st in regards to points won and with those 5 seasons in your post you just strenghtened his point.Yes, but also I suggest you read. I said I am doubling Arsenal just to see where they get to after 18 games, not even 19. So if they get 3 points in the next game, I have basically deducted 3 points. They still hit 90 points
You've messed up the saying
I could care less what 20/21 tables looked like in two halves, I am talking about title challengers and winners, that is the discussion of this page If I am correct? unless you think I am in the wrong thread?
I dont know If I call 5 points substantial, those were the seasons with a title race and the winning team had a 5 point differentiation.
The other 2 seasons are seasons where the winning team won the title in March, which means they would drop a level knowing the title is won.
So if you think 5 points is substantial, us being 8 points behing Arsenal means we are not in a title race because if 5 points is substantial, I dont know what you'd say 8 point difference is.
Again, I will say this. In 3/5 seasons the title winning team has won within 5 points of the first half.
The other 2 seasons the team won the league by March. So are you saying Arsenal will walk away with the league?
Wow! How beautiful to open Cafe and find discussions like these.. It has been far too long and I'm enjoying every moment of this. For once in a long long time EtH is a manager everyone loves and also for once, we can believe he will get us winning things for sure. I see huge huge difference in a general atmosphere around the club and when the owners leave and we get new owners, we'll take this a one more level up and we fans are going to enjoy a lot lot more I presume. Coming back to the topic at hand, I think we need to be realistic and say, the Title should be ours from here on in but I know that that's not realistic but optimistic. On a serious note though, I don't want to make any assumptions. We have gotten to second place finishes with much poorer squad of players and we can do much better with this bunch. I'm hoping we at least push Arsenal and City all the way until the end of the season and then sign Kane, a midfielder and a right back, we can straight away challenge next season. Not giving up hopes of winning the title this season yet though.
Are you Ty??
No, you keep moving goalposts it seems.
Yep, the go to line when you know you are wrong.
All I did was double Arsenal after 18 games, with 20 to play.
I will explain to you slowly so you can follow the goal.
After 18 games Arsenal are 47 points
I said responding to a poster who thinks Arsenal will get less than 80 because thats what happened when Neville was playing. Again because I know you have just replied to the last bit I will give you context what the poster said.
"It's more a case of Liverpool and City's 90+ point seasons embedded into our brains. Neville had a point when he said this feels like a season from his playing days."
In Neville days - we won the title in 2011 with 80 points because for some reason 90+ is unachievable so we cant take when Neville won it with 90.
So in 20 games I said Arsenal could end up with 94 points. If you subtract 94 - 47 = 47 points in 20 games. I did not say identical.
So in 18 games Arsenal have 47 and I said after another 20 they could easily get another 47 points.
In the last 3/5 seasons the team that has won the league has got within 5 points of what they got in 19 games.
So where has the goal post moved?
See GoonerInPeace's just incredibly inflated ego is exactly why so many of us don't want Arsenal to win the league. Just insufferable nonsense. To talk like it's impossible for you to fall into bad form is not only daft, its stupid.
Dont be smug on me. Your conversation with @justsomebloke was about teams having the same or more points in the 2nd half of the season, you decided to entertain that idea and you did that by posting 5 seasons of which in only one City had more points in the 2nd half of the season. Somewhere along the way you've put a 5 point differential as some kind of argument.
Also the fact Arsenal has 47 points doesnt meant they could easily get the same amount in the 20 games left. They could of course but dont think that's so easy as you put it just cause they did it till now.