Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Superden

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I though Kadyrov likes to lead from the front ? love to see him get a beating.
 

Devil You Know

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Does Wagner have the numbers to keep hold of Russia? They might force Putin out but it’s not as if everybody will bow their heads to them.
Arent there some semblance of elections still in Russia?
Prigozhin doesn't really need numbers. If he can gain the loyalty of the Russian military leaders through diplomacy, he'll be the de facto president.

This is Game of Thrones-style kingdom building. He doesn't need to shed a drop of blood as long as every of faction knows he could theoretically beat them in fight. At that point, the only recourse to his threat is to bend the knee.

It's not like Putin is any more legitimate as a leader. Russians just want a strongman in charge.
 

buchansleftleg

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I think the hot dog fondler is just trying to out-Putin Putin and will hope that the military fall in behind him as a new, stronger leader.

He will show-trial Putin and some of his lackeys...the big question is will he accept a withdrawal from Ukraine in order to maintain the "influence" wagner have in Africa.

China will be key here as they are in competition for influence in Africa and will also want to sell lots of Chinese arms to bolster the depleted Russian Army.
 

Abizzz

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I'm going to assume the Wagner leader if he succeeds in a coup will not be recognised by the majority of the world as Russia's new leader. In which case what happens with them having control of the nuclear arsenal?

edit: typo
My speculation is as bad as anyone's but I don't think toppling Putin and moving into Moscow automatically means succeeding him. There could be others that want that spot.
 

do.ob

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Putin looks like he might get overthrown by Prigozhin, the head of Wagner Group.

It's trading one madman for an even more cunning and evil man. Could mean a military dictatorship in Russia.

If we can get past the schadenfreude of Putin getting toppled, this is bad for the world.
I don't see why it would necessarily be bad for the world? I think there's a much higher chance of Russia getting out of Ukraine with pretty much anyone other than Putin.
 

Abizzz

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Putin looks like he might get overthrown by Prigozhin, the head of Wagner Group.

It's trading one madman for an even more cunning and evil man. Could mean a military dictatorship in Russia.

If we can get past the schadenfreude of Putin getting toppled, this is bad for the world.
You saying we should prefer the devil we know?
 

Devil You Know

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Like I said earlier in this thread, this will be bad for Ukraine. A competent Russian military leadership is not a good result for them.
 

crossy1686

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Putin looks like he might get overthrown by Prigozhin, the head of Wagner Group.

It's trading one madman for an even more cunning and evil man. Could mean a military dictatorship in Russia.

If we can get past the schadenfreude of Putin getting toppled, this is bad for the world.
I'd be willing to bet that this guy won't be long standing in whatever position of power he anoints himself.
 

Devil You Know

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I'd be willing to bet that this guy won't be long standing in whatever position of power he anoints himself.
Yeah, I agree. I think he'll throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine in order to win the war, but then fail as an administrator when running the country.
 

justboy68

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Seems like Kadyrov's guys are just surrendering at the first opportunity? As evil as Prighozhin is I think he's judged things well. With the brutal reputation they have built up, no one in Russia wants a piece of Wagner.
 

Zehner

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Even if parts of the military support Prighozin, does that automatically mean they support him as president?

Prighozin can only seize Moscow with their support. But once the regime has fallen, I imagine others throw their hats into the ring as well.
 

The Firestarter

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Even if parts of the military support Prighozin, does that automatically mean they support him as president?

Prighozin can only seize Moscow with their support. But once the regime has fallen, I imagine others throw their hats into the ring as well.
This is Russia. Power always wins. I don't see any other figure that has some sort of organised support. Putin actually made sure of that.
 

calodo2003

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Like I said earlier in this thread, this will be bad for Ukraine. A competent Russian military leadership is not a good result for them.
But the only successful Russian armed force in this war has basically left the battlefield & moved north.

That's a good thing.
 

Ragnar123

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Seems like Kadyrov's guys are just surrendering at the first opportunity? As evil as Prighozhin is I think he's judged things well. With the brutal reputation they have built up, no one in Russia wants a piece of Wagner.
Making Tiktok videos is a better choice than getting sledgehammered.
 

Zehner

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I wonder on which side the pro-Russiam fraction in the West amd particularly the US is. Russia interfered with the election but it was Prighozin who was in charge of the troll army. A divorce is always nasty for the children.
 

JagUTD

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As they're mercenaries isn't the solution for any megalomaniac dictator who has upset them to appeal to their money compass?

The way to a mercs heart is through an offshore bank account, as they say.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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I wonder on which side the pro-Russiam fraction in the West amd particularly the US is. Russia interfered with the election but it was Prighozin who was in charge of the troll army. A divorce is always nasty for the children.
They will start asking where is the West, why aren't they stopping this?
 

Suv666

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You saying we should prefer the devil we know?
I mean yea, Putin is a cnut but he kept the other cnuts in line. With the boss gone, the struggle for power within a nuclear state could have dire consequences.

I don't think the war mongering mercenary leading a private army has any intention to pull out of Ukraine either, if anything after assuming power he would up the nationalistic rhetoric to gain support, ending the invasion would make him look weak.

The only hope for Ukraine is the coup turns into a protracted civil war draining all resources.
 

Devil You Know

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Seems like Kadyrov's guys are just surrendering at the first opportunity? As evil as Prighozhin is I think he's judged things well. With the brutal reputation they have built up, no one in Russia wants a piece of Wagner.
Exactly Putin's cronies are allies of convenience. His empire is a house of cards. Prigozhin is out-Putining Putin.
 

Gehrman

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Like I said earlier in this thread, this will be bad for Ukraine. A competent Russian military leadership is not a good result for them.
Going by the videos it doesnt sound like that Wagner cook is fond of the special military operation.
 

Ragnar123

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Like I said earlier in this thread, this will be bad for Ukraine. A competent Russian military leadership is not a good result for them.
If he actually manages to overthrow Putin, Russia will be in administational chaos for weeks and months. No way they could continue the war under these circumstances and would be forced to retreat.
 

Gehrman

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Apart from the invasion itself this is the most mental development so far.