Over long periods of games like a season it's pretty accurate.
Sure over 1 game or low sample size not so much.
Liverpool are a mess
- Thread starter OldSchoolManc
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
Sure over 1 game or low sample size not so much.
I know what it's used for, but you can't just ignore how clinical the players in the goalscoring positions are. The point still stands that if you had Van Nistelrooy, Batistuta or Romario one on one with the keeper they'll be more successful than Nunez or Weghorst for example. It's not even debatable.
Salah is of course a great goalscorer, but equally he is their most creative player in the front 3. He can't finish the chances he's creating. The other forwards they have all have 1 in 3 goalscoring records in the PL, pretty good but none of them are exactly clinical. The data over an extended period already shows that that is pretty much their level, there's no guarantee that they will have the same amount of chances and suddey convert more of them. That's where fans always seem to misunderstand xG, more chances doesn't always mean more goals will eventually be scored if the players simply aren't capable in the first place. Are we suddenly expecting Anthony to score 20 goals next season just because he always gets into good positions?
For what it's worth, I think United will have even bigger goalscoring issues this season even though the midfielders do tend to chip in a bit more than Liverpool's. Hopefully our defence will be strong enough to make up for the lack of goals.
But what can it actually tell you? United had a negative xG of 17 last season, Chelsea 15 and Liverpool 10.5. Also United had 4 players who scored more than their xG compared to 19 who underperformed, Chelsea was 8 to 21 using the same metric and Liverpool 8 to 15. The point is all these teams underperformed when it comes to xG, so why would it be used as a sign that Liverpool will surely improve, but not United or Chelsea. It's a meaningless stat if it's not used in the correct context.
United and Chelsea have also actually signed strikers, so why are Liverpool the team we're expecting to show improvement in this regard. Diaz, Gakpo and Jota all outperformed their xG last season for what it's worth, so surely if we're using xG as a basis for predictions regarding Liverpool improving their goalscoring it actually depends more on an ageing Salah keeping up his goalscoring and for Nunez to suddenly become more clinical.
More chances almost always equals more goals, barring a fluke. Darwin scored 34 goals for Benfica in all competitions before joining Liverpool and then got 15 last season, in his first season in the prem. Technically he is a bit shit but he is a machine at finding goalscoring positions and it's bound to translate into higher totals.
And it's not always better players finish chances better. Rank these finishers for example: Benzema, Lewandowski, or Lukaku? The best teams and the best strikers all of the time simply get the most chances. Even better if they consistently finish above their xG, but not a huge deal as shown by many elite strikers.
With Antony, he absolutely does have a big scoring season in him. He gets shots off at a high level but he just takes dumb shots. Variance alone can just go his way and he has a big season.
Basically look at this:
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Naingollan - now that‘s a name I wouldn‘t have expected in the chart.
Oh how I look forward to that day
People laughing at Liverpool will be in a right mess once Moises joins them.
They would have managed to solve all mid field issues in one window.
They would have managed to solve all mid field issues in one window.
Op don’t gone and fecked up 
If they sign Caicedo they’d have arguably done better business than us altogether this window. They lucked out with the Saudis taking Fabinho and Henderson though.
If they sign Caicedo they’d have arguably done better business than us altogether this window. They lucked out with the Saudis taking Fabinho and Henderson though.I couldn't believe they got £40m for Fabinho. They hardly lost any money on a player they've wrung every last bit of use out of. He's like a dried out orange rind now. It would be like us getting £40 million for Bailly.
Life is unfair.
Based on this some clubs finished more than a dozen points off their "expected" points totals. Most were off by several. I'm pretty skeptical of the idea of expected goals meaning you "should" have won. It definitely doesn't seem to work out that way.
It's just a stat imo, like possession or fouls, not a real indicator of the better team.
If the Saudis came in for Maguire, they'd probably have offered 60 or 70 million. They're a completely different situation
He wants Chelsea and they can easily afford him. I don't yet see this Liverpool thing happening. It's just the owners trying to convince the fans that they really really tried to sign him, but sadly they were outbid.
The Saudis have been paying wages far in excess of average Premier League salaries. I don’t know where you get the idea that the same apples to transfer fees though.
The Mbappe one is a pretty big example
That’s a fair point, to be honest, but feels like an exception rather than a rule.
That's because they have good football people in the right positions. Bad owners but very good management. Purchased well previously in the attack additionally with Diaz and Gakpo.
People writing them off were obviously getting their hopes up. Realistically Klopp is too good for them to collapse. That said, some (Liverpool supporting) journos and pundits are talking about a Liverpool title challenge which I can't see happening. They'll probably get 4th imo
True. I checked and Henderson was about 12 million I think. Because of how big the wages were, I think I just assumed the fee was massive too.
They're not there yet but have done a pretty nice job rebuilding this side.
Dias (26)
Jota (26)
Nunez (24)
Gakpo (24)
TAA (24)
MacAllister (24)
Konate (24)
Szoboslai (22)
Caicedo (21)
That is a nice core of early-mid 20s players. Probably only Arsenal has a better early-mid 20s core at this point (Chelsea might in a couple years if some of their teenagers develop well).
Dias (26)
Jota (26)
Nunez (24)
Gakpo (24)
TAA (24)
MacAllister (24)
Konate (24)
Szoboslai (22)
Caicedo (21)
That is a nice core of early-mid 20s players. Probably only Arsenal has a better early-mid 20s core at this point (Chelsea might in a couple years if some of their teenagers develop well).
Maguire and Fabinho are completely different situations. Maguire is still has way more left in the tank despite being older. Fabinho would crumble into dust if you breathed on him too heavily.
With Caicedo in, that’s a fine midfield rebuild in the 6 and 8 positions. My worry is us finding a player as talented as Caicedo when it’s our turn soon to replace Casemiro.
It’s such an unusual situation isn’t it. It’s happening in the lower leagues too. Our (Ipswich)’s centre midfielder, and best player last season, who is Egyptian, apparently has an offer from a Saudi team that absolutely dwarfs his current League 1/ Championship level. I could hardly blame him if he took it tbh
This thread needs deleting.
And that's a good age for the players to develop into their prime. It also means the club don't need to spend ridiculous sums over the next few years to accommodate replacements again in key positions. It's good business at the end of the day. It seems like the next best approach to build a team. Arsenal have done it well, Chelsea are doing it but with more inflated fees and Liverpool have gone about it discretely.
Only clubs with the most significant resources can really have the fluidity of just amassing a team together City for instance won't have a similar model because of accessibility to finances.
If there’s anything we know about football it’s that there’s always another talented young player around the corner. A couple of years ago Caicedo wasn’t really on the radar in the way he is now.
"Liverpool are a mess" to suddenly "oh dear god no!"
I still have a few questions despite the obvious boost to their midfield. From what i heard Gakpo is looking more settled but is Nunez going to have a better second season? Another 30 goal season on the cards for Salah? Has the defence improved after having conceded 47 goals last season?
Expecting them to have a much better season but not sure about a title challenge just yet.
I still have a few questions despite the obvious boost to their midfield. From what i heard Gakpo is looking more settled but is Nunez going to have a better second season? Another 30 goal season on the cards for Salah? Has the defence improved after having conceded 47 goals last season?
Expecting them to have a much better season but not sure about a title challenge just yet.
Yeah I guess it’s envy really. More to do with how highly people rate this fellow as a talent than what I’ve seen myself - everyone seems to have him as one of the best CM / DM talents in the game. Although I like Mount, in the 6 and 8 positions I’m not sure if we have anyone who we can say in 3 years time will be among the worlds best.
Hopefully Mainoo develops a lot this year as he looks classy as feck.
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They’ve spent 260m on a new midfield alone, I guess it’s FSG in now?
"Masterstroke from Klopp..." etc. etc. Ad nauseam.
They had to do something.
They had to do something.
Liverpool have done it, brought their midfield back to potential elite levels in just one window. That balance is ridiculous.
They just need cohesion now and a minimal injuries, across their squad and they will be back challenging for the league with Arsenal and City. Going forward they will need depth for all fronts and some flexibility.
City
Arsenal
Liverpool
This season’s top 3, order to be confirmed.
They just need cohesion now and a minimal injuries, across their squad and they will be back challenging for the league with Arsenal and City. Going forward they will need depth for all fronts and some flexibility.
City
Arsenal
Liverpool
This season’s top 3, order to be confirmed.
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Good. They spent a feckton on midfielders while they have an old midget up front still single handedly carrying them with Nunez and no more Bobby. I guess if they fail to qualify for CL again Klopp will get the sack.
Will fight with us and City for top 3.
Just like Dortmund a decade ago and Ajax of five years ago - there’s definitely going to be nothing going wrong signing players from a well oiled machine and transferring that ability to a new club.
By us, you mean Arsenal, right?
Not any more.
While VVD is not what he was at his peak, the defence was woefully exposed last season by a relatively wide open midfield. That looks potentially fixed, if Caicedo signs, the defence concedes far fewer goals.
Balanced… till injuries… then it’s back to being imbalanced. They have no depth. Long season. We will be ahead of Liverpool.
Liverpool are now 2nd favourites for the title. This is awful news
Klopp being a hypocrite? Who would’ve thunk it