If you listen to experts the state of the union has never had any impact of polls, and is watched by less than 10 percent of the electorate: largely those already engaged and having made up their mind.
I'm less worried about that, and more encouraged that we're starting to see some of the policies and positions emerging. As we've been saying, Biden has good policies and needs to get the electorate aware.
Trump has no policies, and is currently furiously trying to pretend he didn't say last week he'd cut Medicare and medicaid.
Most Americans do not watch the SOTU address, period, but those who do watch are generally of the party in the White House. For instance, I could t stand to watch Trump’s SOTU addresses. They’ve become increasingly irrelevant and performative.
I find it odd that the US posters are pretty much "yeah, it's a toss up right now, but we are not panicking" and posters outside the US are all "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!".
No one would ever accuse me of being an optimist, but, absent a major event (Biden major health issue/kicking the bucket/war/etc.) I am pretty confident Trump is not going to win.
Trump has been losing every time he steps up. The 2022 midterms were supposed to be a “red wave”, as the party in power always loses seats in the midterms. Obama lost 63. In contrast, Biden lost 9.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sta...dlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections So even though seats were flipped, it was a very hopeful sign for the Dems.
This election is going to hinge on a couple things in my opinion: abortion and Trumps legal woes. Abortion is an absolute loser for Republicans and Trump said today he would support a national abortion ban at 15 weeks. That is radioactive. This Monday the 25th is when Trump has to post bond or have his assets seized. So far he’s got no bond so Letitia James is going to tear his empire asunder. His entire brand is wily billionaire , and this disgorgement (and subsequent legal losses) will show him to be a con artist, liar, fraudster, and cheat. It’s one thing to see that in print and it’s another thing when half a dozen of his signature properties will be seized and sold. It will drive him insane.
The recent reports of Alzheimer’s suffered by both his parents could explain his cognitive peculiarities, slurred speech, rambling thoughts, and badly garbled “facts”: he could already be suffering from early stages of dementia.
Just like last election, very few people saw Biden as the answer to their prayers. However, his record has been very good, and his team are getting his achievements out in media buys now. People do not love Biden but over half hate Trump. Trump stans love him but they represent only about half the Republican Party. Independents will break for Biden and I predict a lot of old school Republicans simply won’t vote for that race. It’s not a time to be complacent but Trump has a massive uphill battle and he’s unequipped to fight it.