Realistically, we have no idea what is going to happen in November given the amount of variables at play this year. Not just RFK but also Trump's trials, and dumb things he's yet to do between now and Nov. Eight years ago, Hillary was leading Trump in most polls and ended up losing despite nearly everyone expecting her to win.
2024 U.S. Elections
- Thread starter Raoul
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Yeah, but a lot of moderate centrists either agree with Biden's course, or don't care about the most egregious aspects of it.
Surely the brains eaten by a worm story would have killed any meaningful effect RFK could have on the election. Many American voters vote stupidly but I think that story will make it hard for even most idiots to vote for him.
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its definitely gonna work this time!
You can say that, but i reckon a lot of her supporters aren't really her supporters, just the anti-Trump faction of the party(and independents).
Reckon a bunch of them stays home this election, that is nothing to scoff at, imo.
Page up and page down about Palestina and Biden here, but hardly any for the unrest among voters Trump himself needs to win.
Interview with a Dem strategist, a really good insight into Biden-world
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope
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Echoes of Reagan striking a behind the scenes deal for Iranian hostages to prevent Carter getting a "win" before the election.
My first reaction.
Trump also veto'd a bill that would have ended US military involvement in Yemen.
This is a popular claim but r/askhistorians seems to say it didn't go entirely like this:
Does not inspire much confidence tbh.
The link does contain a rebuttal that details behind the scenes interference by influential persons associated within the Reagan circle, so there's problem something in there. Not necessarily an outright covert act to stop a hostage release but certainly some likely shenanigans to further prolong the ordeal, thus damaging the incumbent.
The reply to the only post there shows (as convincingly as it can be shown - from the personal papers of one of the conspirators) that the attempt was made to do exactly that. The remaining contention seems to be whether it was these attempts or the Iran-Iraq war that were the main reason behind the delay.
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I like Simon Rosenberg, and I followed him closely in 2022. He was right, and so was Matthew Dowd.
However, I’m not sure that I agree with him this time. The Biden brand, and the Democratic brand more generally, is damaged by the war in Gaza. I attended a graduation ceremony today, and a speaker mentioned the children of Gaza. There was a big roar from the crowd (normal people). The Gaza situation could play a bigger role than the Biden campaign thinks.
However, this poll has Biden -3, and Gallego +10. That’s too much of a split. In addition, there are 15-20% in this poll with no vote for either of the 4 candidates (President and Senate). That doesn’t give me confidence in the poll. And so while I think that we could see split voting, polls like this are not reliable enough to affirm that.
However, I’m not sure that I agree with him this time. The Biden brand, and the Democratic brand more generally, is damaged by the war in Gaza. I attended a graduation ceremony today, and a speaker mentioned the children of Gaza. There was a big roar from the crowd (normal people). The Gaza situation could play a bigger role than the Biden campaign thinks.
Unlike @Morty_ , I believe that we could see split tickets in AZ, PA and potentially other places.
However, this poll has Biden -3, and Gallego +10. That’s too much of a split. In addition, there are 15-20% in this poll with no vote for either of the 4 candidates (President and Senate). That doesn’t give me confidence in the poll. And so while I think that we could see split voting, polls like this are not reliable enough to affirm that.
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another piece of evidence that suggests the obvious - Biden's Gaza policy is not about a domestic audience at all. Even as a potential constituency for a hawkish foreign policy openly supports Trump, and the leftist riff-raff protests against him, he supports Israel because he deeply believes in that project.
Rosenberg is way over the top in his predictions just as David Plouffe was in 2016. That said, no one knows what is going to happen this time. Even though 2016 and 2020 were absurdly unusual elections, this time may be even less predictable given the trials, RFK, Biden's age, and the weird Nikki Haley effect where people continue to vote for her even though she withdrew several months ago. So whatever votes Biden lacks in terms of foreign policy, economics, and age, could be offset by Trump's legal cases, abortion position, and inability to include Haley voters into his base. At the end of the day its going to be a GOTV game.
Trump is courting Libertarian activists and trying to ensure they’re not drawn to RFK Jr.'s campaign
https://apnews.com/article/trump-li...rfk-jr-biden-816e3209fdf993c2ba7f6caed0ebcdb7
he's bringing the tactical voting debate from this thread to the libertarian party 
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I’m sure whoever suggested he go to the event is getting an earful this evening.
Why would he be at this event? He only goes to things that adorn himhe's bringing the tactical voting debate from this thread to the libertarian party
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In 2016, despite all the publicity surrounding Jill Stein and the Green Party, by far the largest 3rd-party vote was for Gary Johnson of the Libertarians. They got roughly 3% of the vote in all the crucial swing states, compared to about 1% for the Greens. Libertarians are largely right-leaning, unlike left-leaning Greens - these were votes that might have gone for the Republican otherwise. With a remotely competent Democratic candidate, this 2% differential should have been a boost on top of Trump's existing unpopularity, and enough to assure victory.
Trump, despite his brash public speaking, is sometimes quite sharp about the reasons for his own success. I remember a leaked private recording where he spoke about how he was happy to face Hillary in the Midwest, and worried about her having Bernie as VP, because he opposed NAFTA.
He probably sees that this time, Biden and himself are the 2 most unpopular nominees of all time, paralleling 2016 when the same was true of him and Hillary. He also sees high polling for RFK and 3rd party alternatives, and remembers the 3% mark for Libertarians in 2016. If he got even a third of those voters, it would be a very useful buffer (since Biden is actively shunning the smaller numbers of left-wing defectors to the Greens/Cornel West).
Was a decent gamble, but it doesn't look like it worked.
Had no idea Libertarian Party convention attendees could be such a rowdy bunch, or that they existed.
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Tbf, the voters nominated the most reasonable guy on the stage though.
https://x.com/fordfischer/status/1794749267132747901?s=46&t=r9c32UIB7oO7srJ4AyALYg
Brought his own cheering squad and still got humiliated, classic.
Brought his own cheering squad and still got humiliated, classic.
Funny how Trump ca do whatever and get praised, no matter how stupid it is.
Imagine if Biden went to the green party convention and called them all a bunch of losers?
Yeah, "great strategy" insulting the libertarians to their faces, truly.
Imagine if Biden went to the green party convention and called them all a bunch of losers?
Yeah, "great strategy" insulting the libertarians to their faces, truly.
If anyone is praising it, it's just his MAGA base. But they'll praise anything.
Been reading here and there, on right-wing forums, most seems to think it was hilarious, telling it like it is etc.
So yes, you are right it's his base, but it's still incredible how they can rationalize basically everything he does.
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