But its not just that one either, as i have said, the list of "joke polls" is getting rather long.
Combine that, with polls underestimating dems ever since Dobbs(2020 is a different environment), is it strange if people find it hard to question the industry lately?
You may be right that polling isn't technically broken, but the election results in 2022, in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, are quite far away from the polling.
Whitmer was up by 1, she won by 10, "everyone" thought Fetterman was going to lose the senate bid, he overperformed by 5, Shapiro outperformed polling by 6 points.
So forgive me, for not believing that Trump, a despised figure, is suddenly crushing it with independents and young voters, in these battleground states.
Now, if you believe that 2020 is more representative for 2024 than 2022, then that could also be true(god help us), thats just not the picture i'm getting with election results past two years.
I am not going to dispute that there are more "joke" polls because i dont know. Ill take your word on it. But is everyones responsability to source ones information. That includes polls, news, tweets, comments, etc...
The prestigeous polls still out there though and some of them had been published here and the picture says that as it stands, trump is winning for a small margin in most of battle states. Might improve? Maybe
Then, yes, i think 2020 is more representative because they are the elections where more resources are put in polling and is concentrated, not like for governors, senators and house, but that is IMO based in logic, nothing factual to back it up.
At the sametime i dont think is fair to cherry pick. We started with polls are broken, then narrow it down to battle states and then narrow it down to michigan and pennsylvannia. We will always find outlayers the more we single out as is how statistics works
And yes, i agree that is hard to believe that trump is winning with young people and independents. But surely he narrowed it down a lot from 2020. Not because he increase these voters that were small to begin with, but because i think Biden is losing a lot of support, and the first groups that Biden is going to lose are precisely those. Its a battle of vote suppression and in a low percentage turn out, Biden will lose. Lets not forget that Biden won by a large margin in the popular vote, but Trump was the second most voted candidate in US history above any other president (yes, population grow but still is crazy compared to the last 4-5elections). That means that there are plenty of nutters that voted him, and those is unlikely that they change their vote that much while Biden is losing a lot of support
There is a lot of my opinion in this post. But regarding polls numbers, so far they are far from considering them broken if we check past elections