The markets reacted to what we were all watching.
Your wums were a little more inventive back in the day baz.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Your wums were a little more inventive back in the day baz.
Yeah, it's pointless. It's like using the Dow Jones to report on the state of the country. (In fact, stock trading has a lot in common with betting - except it's less influenced by amateurs.)
This constant doubting of the honesty of the process - it must be depressing to be working on that and instilling the idea in the minds of Americans, even if you do rationalize your work by thinking that getting a Republican president is a worthy higher cause.
I was going to write this
They’re just re-cycling now. Also, what kind of idiots haven’t gotten up to speed on the EC by now?Oh absolutely, but it’s worth highlighting that.
Yeah I know - just looks a bit odd that both states are mostly coloured red but it's basically the two main blue counties that count (luckily!).
Brilliant. Thanks for doing that.
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Just prolonging the inevitable. What exactly are they hoping to find?
Fcuking c0vks
They’re just planting seeds for the base.
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I want to switch off, but the alternative of giving the United match my full attention isn't ideal eitherI was going to write this
Fair. I guess subconsciously I had written off FL TX and OH, so I didn't pay attention. Also the nationwide numbers were quite large, towards 10%, but the actual margin will be 3ish I guess.
And the worst polling was Susan Collins by a distance.
Savage
He's now got zero confidence in any judgment he makes.
The guy constantly interrupting the black woman on CNN is fecking annoying.
So basically Phoenix. What are the consequences of that?
Heavy Dem area so bad for orange man.
It's all about Nevada now. Win that and it's over. Otherwise all eyes on Pennsylvania.
They're not hoping to find anything. It's just Trump and his sycophants wanting to stoke up civil war and destroy the pillars of democracy.
Christ, how collectively ignorant can one group get? Too far left?!?
Biden should hold out for the win there.
Qft
Nah, they'll be back in 2022 b/c no matter how much we think they are still full of shit we will still crave something to make us feel better about or fret about for the midterms.
No need to fret about AZ in other words?
I don't see how you get that from that tweet. He's not giving two different opinions here. He's saying party registration would suggest one thing, and then explaining why it's more complicated than that.
It's 2020, fretting should be default mode.
It’s hard to tell. The remaining votes are late mail in ballots which have skewed heavily Rep. As it’s in Phoenix area the hope is that it doesn’t follow other trends. Think there is definitely some cause for concern.
Trump lead in PA down from 800k to ~ 460k since counting restarted today. Biden is going to win this by the time all mail ballots are counted.
I have heard that about 100 times today.
How so? The point of a probabilistic model isn't to give the one correct answer, and any other outcome is a failure. In any case, they predicted Biden to win and it looks like he will win, though it's not certain. 538 also gave Trump a very good chance in 2016, much more so than other models.
Pollsters have a lot more introspection to do, though.
Biden is up 6% in Maricopa with 86% return.
How can betting sites that operate primarily reactively after setting initial odds, be predictive this late in the election?
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