2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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MrMarcello

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IRT Arizona, if my math is correct per NYT totals at 86%, there are about 450K votes remaining. Biden has a 93.5K lead at the moment. Trump would need to take over 60%+ of that final tally to go past Biden. But the vote thingy has Maricopa at 86% with Biden up 99K there. Surely Biden will hold AZ.
 

Dudu

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Noooo. The Feck happened?! :mad:

Does anyone have any insight into this.. can he surge with the remaining ballots?
 

McGrathsipan

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This is excruciating emotional frustrating, depressing, angering, hopfeful and exciting ----------feck sake
 

Zehner

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Mr Pigeon said:
He'll bitch and moan about a made up scandal, say that the election was stolen by socialist communist fascists. Then he'll rile up 50% of the population to the point where they want to shoot some innocent person on the street, before quietly leaving the White House without any complaint. Then he'll set up his own news network where his family can make millions off of the back of division and hatred. And at some point lots of people will get hurt and, maybe, he or his son will run in four years as an independent depending on how well his TrumpNewsCorp does.
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I guess as an independent he'd take away votes from the GOP so he's got my blessing to do that.
 

Ubik

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Dudu said:

Noooo. The Feck happened?! :mad:

Does anyone have any insight into this.. can he surge with the remaining ballots?
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Yeah, they should still be heavily D.
 

MrMarcello

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Mr Pigeon said:
He'll bitch and moan about a made up scandal, say that the election was stolen by socialist communist fascists. Then he'll rile up 50% of the population to the point where they want to shoot some innocent person on the street, before quietly leaving the White House without any complaint. Then he'll set up his own news network where his family can make millions off of the back of division and hatred. And at some point lots of people will get hurt and, maybe, he or his son will run in four years as an independent depending on how well his TrumpNewsCorp does.
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I'd love for him/son/daughter run on an Indie ticket in 2024 - that would siphon a huge percentage of RWNJs and likely deliver the Dem nom a win.
 

Revan

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Dudu said:

Noooo. The Feck happened?! :mad:

Does anyone have any insight into this.. can he surge with the remaining ballots?
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Of course he can. Even assuming that only 3% of the votes are remaining, that is still 150k votes. He just needs to win 70k out of them.

I think that it will go the same way as the presidential race. People in the US seem to love voting for straight tickets.
 

gerdm07

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Enigma_87 said:
No chance of that happening. He's getting battered in Detroit and only 75% of the votes are counted there. Most likely Biden will stretch the lead, whilst the small counties are already at 95-99%.
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And that's why I said it doesn't look like Trump can win MI. It comes down to NV and PA. Biden has the better odds.
 

bazalini

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Anyone else look at that fat bloke on noom and think he's lying about training for Olympics?

Just does not add up
 

Damien

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Organic Potatoes said:
Biden will win, but a clear Senate majority is less...clear.
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Looks like the Republicans will retain the Senate and might even get the House.

Dr. StrangeHate said:
Does this election indicate that majority of Americans absolutely hate progressive politics and Democrats moving towards the centre more and more is necessary for their survival?
Or is it as simple as they love Trump.
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Seems to be a mix of thinking Biden is a socialist and his mental acuity. Can envisage the Democrat side doing what happened to Labour and try to go further to the left (AOC) and end up doing way worse.

Ultimately though, the economy was a priority for voters and before the pandemic they were doing pretty well. If the pandemic didn't happen, Trump would probably have won 2020 comfortably.
 

gerdm07

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Revan said:
My reading is that the economy is what people care about most, while social issues (abortion, guns, LGBT) are not as important for the election as people think. Dems possibly need to redefine themselves and talk less about identity politics while trying to attach themselves to the middle-class. Without covid, Trump would have won this easily, and there won't be covid in 4 years.
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I totally agree.
 

SirAF

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Revan said:
He does not need GA or PA. The path is clear: Arizona (called by AP), Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. That sends him to 270.

Well, Maine too but that is gonna happen.
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What about the 4th electoral vote in Maine?
 

Adisa

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Can someone explain the issue with Arizona? Is it done or not and should we be worried?
 

TheGame

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Damien said:
Looks like the Republicans will retain the Senate and might even get the House.


Seems to be a mix of thinking Biden is a socialist and his mental acuity. Can envisage the Democrat side doing what happened to Labour and try to go further to the left (AOC) and end up doing way worse.

Ultimately though, the economy was a priority for voters and before the pandemic they were doing pretty well. If the pandemic didn't happen, Trump would probably have won 2020 comfortably.
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Thought the Dems were nailed on for the House?
 

GiddyUp

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If one thing is very clear today it's that Loius DeJoy should go to jail.
 

Nou_Camp99

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Kaos said:
Conventionally yes, but not sure about our current Tory administration. Our conservatives in recent years have veered a fair bit further to the right (but still to the left of GOP cons).
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Yeah that's a fair point. Although I don't think Boris is that right winged in all honesty. He just goes with whatever he thinks will bolster his career which is worse for me. He wrote many articles in his column years ago about how the single market was good for UK business. Then he takes us out. Can't trust people like that.
 

Suedesi

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Brwned said:
And if they end up predicting the right result within the state margin of error in the majority of states, how do you explain that? Garbage models tend to be wrong much more often that they're right, and very accurate models tend to be wrong a few times and right most of the time. Which category do you think they will fall into?

I'd say the bigger problem is models are designed to make complicated problems look simple. So people read them in a simplistic way, because of course I can read that one number they've boiled down from thousands of numbers, and misinterpret the findings. So we might agree that sharing the polling numbers with the public is a garbage idea, just for very different reasons.
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If you believe that a model is right because it got the output right, I have one of two dart throwing monkeys to sell you. The final Electoral College tally according to the final 538 averages would have been 348-190. There is no chance Biden gets to that number. Polls in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio were off by up to 10 percentage points. Poll data is unreliable so the models are wrong, GIGO.

Pollsters are all white guys in their bubbles - blacks go in this line, Latinos in this line, women go here - needless to say it's more complex than that.
 

mu4c_20le

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This election was so worth it just to see the trump sycophants in tears

 

Siorac

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Revan said:
My reading is that the economy is what people care about most, while social issues (abortion, guns, LGBT) are not as important for the election as people think. Dems possibly need to redefine themselves and talk less about identity politics while trying to attach themselves to the middle-class. Without covid, Trump would have won this easily, and there won't be covid in 4 years.
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The economy is what Trump supporters say they care about the most. The data says it's nowhere near as important for Biden's voters.

That might be different in four years, sure. But I'm willing to bet that the GOP will still engage in heavy identity politics while its supporters decry the left's playing identity politics.
 
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