2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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MarylandMUFan said:
I have never been so nervous about an election in my life (48 years old). Staggering to think what is at stake here.
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I feel the same and I’m not American. I need to step away from social media as it’s such a roller coaster.
 
I think I'm copying what Nate Silver said a few weeks ago, but my prediction is that all this nervous energy/ comments that imply everyone is scared that Trump will win, is going to seamlessly bleed into a post-election view of 'how did anyone think Trump had a chance?' and 'was this the worst campaign in history?'.
 
RUUD_10_LEGEND said:
I really hope the people making all these predictions don't end up with egg on their faces.

These last few days are taking an age. I can't wait for this sodding election to be over.
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If the last few months have taught me anything it's "don't get your hopes up, even if it looks like Sancho is certainly joining United."
 
For what its worth- lines have been out the door in some of the cities here in Oakland County, MI (2nd most populous metro Detroit county with 1.3ish million) for the last two weeks or so - tomorrow will probably be nuts if that's any indication.
 
That Tweet from 538 is the first to rock my confidence a little (the 3 states = 50/50) but at this stage I just have to trust the numbers. Am with other posters despite only being tangentially-American (married to one) - I feel huge, huge nerves about the future if Trump can win.
 
Cheimoon said:
The origin story of the laptop makes no sense at all. Dropping of laptops with sensitive information at a total random place, no protection in place, the store owner alerts the FBI and makes his own copies (he did WHAT?!), the blind guy who can see a sticker, and so on. There is no way that all really happened, it's just too improbable. I guess that might also be an argument to give the story credence (who would come up with that shit?), but don't forgot that Giuliani was involved in this. Given the momentous cock-ups that he has 'masterminded', I don't doubt for a second he thought this would work. And either way, in the end, the origin story faded away, and we just have conservative media shouting 'but the laptop!' now.

As for the actual contents - I would think some of it is real, also for the reasons you mentioned. But not all of it from what I've read, and so it becomes hard to trust any of it. And anyway, even the worse stuff just makes Hunter look kinda bad, bu not so much his dad. So apart from how the data was obtained, it seems there is nothing illegal or compromising there - or certainly not for Joe Biden.
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Indeed. @freeurmind doesn't seem to realize there is no better story. There is literally no plausible explanation they could have invented for the notion that Trump campaign just happened to come into possession of some compromised laptop that contains all this alleged information. Any story they invented would sound this fishy and only be believed by Trump's fanatics.
 
If Biden wins Florida and Georgia, it will be a quick night, on the other hand, if Trump pulls both Florida and Pennsylvania it’s panic time.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
I wouldn’t be that worried about the election; maybe the aftermath...
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Tomorrow and probably at the least the day after are going to be the least productive days of my adult life. Also nervous as hell. It is scary we got to where we are now. If there was ever a time to show our country still has some sanity and strength of its institutions left - now is the time to show it.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
If Biden wins Florida and Georgia, it will be a quick night, on the other hand, if Trump pulls both Florida and Pennsylvania it’s panic time.
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If Biden wins FL, its likely over.

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Reditus said:
I see talk on Arizona being key, but does that state nearly always sway republican?

Is there a chance Biden takes it?
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As an Arizona resident I am fairly confident it's going blue. The thing is that right-leaning moderates living in the suburbs have left Trump + increased Latino vote. Expect AZ to go the way of CO or VA in the coming years in terms of political shifts.
 
Raoul said:
If Biden wins FL, its likely over.

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Looking at that map and taking into account that AZ pre-processes early ballots before election day (i.e. my ballot has already been verified and counted), I think it is possible that we know the result in AZ before WI. If FL and AZ go to Biden, he can be declared the victor early Wednesday morning; I would say this is the best case scenario.
 
Raoul said:
If Biden wins FL, its likely over.

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Sure but adding Georgia would seal it without any uncertainty as I believe it’s one of the states that’s expected to count votes early with mail in ballots being such a large share this year.
 
There is a scenario where Trump wins FL and PA, but still doesn't win the election.

Biden would have to take NC, WI & MI as well as AZ, plus all of the other states he's expected to pick up. Ends up with a 275 win for Biden (263 for Trump).
 
sport2793 said:
Looking at that map and taking into account that AZ pre-processes early ballots before election day (i.e. my ballot has already been verified and counted), I think it is possible that we know the result in AZ before WI. If FL and AZ go to Biden, he can be declared the victor early Wednesday morning; I would say this is the best case scenario.
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Wednesday at Stoke said:
Sure but adding Georgia would seal it without any uncertainty as I believe it’s one of the states that’s expected to count votes early with mail in ballots being such a large share this year.
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Once Biden clears 270 and the TV networks all declare him the President-elect, the entire narrative changes and Trump will be in a very difficult spot. Every additional state beyond the one that takes Biden to 270 will make it all the more difficult. If/when Biden gets into the 350s, Trump will be under immense pressure from other Republicans to concede.
 
sport2793 said:
As an Arizona resident I am fairly confident it's going blue. The thing is that right-leaning moderates living in the suburbs have left Trump + increased Latino vote. Expect AZ to go the way of CO or VA in the coming years in terms of political shifts.
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Does the heat bother you in the summer? :D
 
VorZakone said:
Does the heat bother you in the summer? :D
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Not when you are born and raised in it but having spent a lot of time out of state for the last 5 years I have noticeably lost my endurance capabilities of dealing with the extreme summer dry heat. It's a fair warning to anyone who may have to move to AZ at some point. With that said, the winter months are paradise.
 


This is the hyperpartisan GOP judge in the 5th circuit, and even he is throwing out TX GOP lawsuit about the Harris County vote :lol:
 
Ubik said:
You've given him the whole of Nebraska you absolute madman.
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Yep that's my wild punt. Because the only people I've seen polling NE-1 are those useless fecks at SurveyMonkey, but a few months back there was a poll from someone slightly more reputable showing NE-1 as a surprisingly small lead for Trump. So hey I'm feeling wildly optimistic, so why not go for it. :lol:
 
So what bets are people making? I'm thinking play it safe and just whack a big'n on Biden. I don't know the race well enough to be clever about it.
 
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