Tom Van Persie
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- Joined
- Dec 12, 2012
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That's the midpoint of a distribution, you shouldn't evaluate it as being accurate if the ECs land exactly there or not.His own website
I've been lucky regarding visa issues. I was close to filing GC application in 2015 but then we were blessed with a daughter and I wanted to wait for an year as my wife traveled back to India to be with her family. All applicants should be in US at the time of filing. I waited for my wife and daughter to come back and by the time they back in 2016, I discussed with my wife and we decided that we won't file if Trump wins the election. I would have qualified for EB1 GC quota which would have made the process a lot simpler and I'd have got a card in an year or so, but i didn't second guess once we made the decision.I've never been really invested in US Politics but I'm planning on moving to the US for my masters in 2021. So paying close attention to this one. No way I'm moving to the US if Trump gets reelected.
Did you leave the States because of visa issues? I've heard stories of Trump administration revoking visas of folks who have been working for 10+ years and being a pain in the arse about everything immigration related.
that train wreck of a thread was the only reason I went where I did. Agreed on your point which is why I stayed in the lane I did.Ah That’s a bit much to be fair. I don’t even mean this to be funny-“have you stopped cheating on your wife” would feel much more acceptable given his previous thread and still prove your point, wife beating is a whole other thing, whether he’s even married or not I don’t think that should be implied
i'm sure the dems will try, will be interesting to see if people will buy it. i have a feeling they will.I wonder if this kindof thingwill continue after Biden wins if he wins tomorrow. Any negative stroy concerning him dismissed as propaganda or "Russian misinformation" without considering the evidence even being censored by social media if it doesn't fit the proper narrative?
Another way of reading the information he's provided is there's an 80% chance Biden's EC votes fall between ~ 275 to 425. That tends to be the more important and useful information, but that's the thing with statistics, they're not very intuitive. We like simple numbers. What % chance do you think he would attribute to the EC vote being precisely 349?Nate Silver predicts 349 EC votes for Mr. Biden and 189 for Mr. Trump, let's see in a few days how accurate that prediction is.
I'm willing to forgive a +/- 78 point margin of errorThat's the midpoint of a distribution, you shouldn't evaluate it as being accurate if the ECs land exactly there or not.
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Who are we talking about now? I was just mentioning the traditional version of that question.Ah That’s a bit much to be fair. I don’t even mean this to be funny-“have you stopped cheating on your wife” would feel much more acceptable given his previous thread and still prove your point, wife beating is a whole other thing, whether he’s even married or not I don’t think that should be implied
Clearly the Trump kids are super qualified for all the boards etc theyve been on and the millions they've earned while daddy is Pres is completely kosher of course.He pretty obviously used his connection with his dad to get ahead, but he’s also a lawyer and perfectly qualified to sit on company boards. The GOP have been trying to make him sound totally unqualified for any of his jobs, which is wildly inaccurate and just part of the smear.
Ah. Recently free your mind made a thread asking about what it means when you invite a girl who has been suggesting she’s down to clown over to your place to do the no pants dance, but she falls asleep once she gets to yours. He made that thread (think it’s called “help me understand women”) just a couple of minutes after posting a comment somewhere else about his wife: so either he made the whole thing up, he’s pretending to be married, or he accidentally admitted to cheating on his wife.Who are we talking about now? I was just mentioning the traditional version of that question.
Letting these feckwits get their claws into power is going to have long lasting impacts I fearClearly the Trump kids are super qualified for all the boards etc theyve been on and the millions they've earned while daddy is Pres is completely kosher of course.
Yeah on second thought I probably misspoke there.He pretty obviously used his connection with his dad to get ahead, but he’s also a lawyer and perfectly qualified to sit on company boards. The GOP have been trying to make him sound totally unqualified for any of his jobs, which is wildly inaccurate and just part of the smear.
I hope these people are right but I’m not confident enough to feel this just yetTweet
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Might as well go balls deep nowTweet
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I think all of FL, NC & GA going Democrat is incredibly optimistic. I expect Trump to take Florida one way or another. If PA goes for Biden I think it's over. Trump needs FL and PA to win.I hope these people are right but I’m not confident enough to feel this just yet
If I had a choice Id probably prefer to see TX and GA go blue bc it seems potentially more sustainable after. FL going blue would be grand though.Tweet
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Needs to flip, right?. Biden winning but Turtle still being in charge would be a nightmare.Tweet
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And a couple of others too. If Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin and performs in the desert, I don’t see a path for Trump. He can win Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas and maybe even PA all he wants then. Although I would be surprised to see PA not go with Biden, but you cant count out Republican feckeryI think all of FL, NC & GA going Democrat is incredibly optimistic. I expect Trump to take Florida one way or another. If PA goes for Biden I think it's over. Trump needs FL and PA to win.
If Biden wins and it’s 50-50 (minimum outcome that poll suggests) Kamala gets the deciding vote. Which isn’t exactly ideal for true progressives but way better than rigor tortoise running itNeeds to flip. Biden winning but Turtle still being in charge would be a nightmare.
The origin story of the laptop makes no sense at all. Dropping off laptops with sensitive information at a total random place, no protection in place, the store owner alerting the FBI and making his own copies (he did WHAT?!), the blind guy who can see a sticker, and so on. There is no way that all really happened, it's just too improbable. I guess that might also be an argument to give the story credence (who would come up with that shit?), but don't forgot that Giuliani was involved in this. Given the momentous cock-ups that he has 'masterminded', I don't doubt for a second he thought this would work. And either way, in the end, the origin story faded away, and we just have conservative media shouting 'but the laptops!' now.The Post article simply states how the shop owner claims he came to be in possession of the laptop. Were they supposed to lie? If they were going to lie, don't you think they would have come up with something better than that?
As regards to the timing of the release, of course there's no doubt Giuliani timed this to coincide with the election just like the Access Hollywood tape last time round. Still doens't make the story fake.
If at least Hunter came out and said those emails and pictures are fake, they're not genuine, I could understand the pearl clutching but he's said nothing. And others have confirmed that some of the emails were real.
And then Kamala removes her mask to reveal Arya Stark, who then removes her mask to reveal Obama? And then he just clicks his fingers, Secret Service run over, and beat the shit out of Mitch?If Biden wins and it’s 50-50 (minimum outcome that poll suggests) Kamala gets the deciding vote. Which isn’t exactly ideal for true progressives but way better than rigor tortoise running it
@jennifernvictor
Thanks a lot guys, such people on Twitter are exactly what I needed.Steve Kornacki
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I really hope the people making all these predictions don't end up with egg on their faces.I hope these people are right but I’m not confident enough to feel this just yet
Biden is the (slight) favorite in AZ, yeah.I see talk on Arizona being key, but does that state nearly always sway republican?
Is there a chance Biden takes it?
I think it's likely to go blue. Trump shot himself in the foot with the constant bashing of John McCain. Cindy McCain endorsed Biden.I see talk on Arizona being key, but does that state nearly always sway republican?
Is there a chance Biden takes it?
Keep in mind that results are connected. That model assumes that for all those three to go to Trump the polls need to be off in other states as well. That makes Pennsylvania and Nevada unsafe, flips Arizona to Trump and makes Ohio a secure Trump state. It's not likely, which is why the model gives Trump a 10% chance in the first place. He'll need something to go wrong by that magnitude to even have a chance.FFS, my mind had already assumed those were gonna be lost but I'd made myself feel better that PA was looking strong.