City and Arsenal also over achieved this season by a similar amount.
Possibly just a sign of good management.
75pts: Around about the maximum points haul you’d expect from this squad?
- Thread starter Fortitude
- Start date
Possibly just a sign of good management.
Not quite. Each shot’s xG is a probability, so they run a Monte Carlo simulation (with several thousand attempts), to work out the probabilities of scorelines based on the probability of each individual shot. From there, let’s say that 80% would be wins, 10% draws and 10% defeats, that would work out to 2.5 expected points, from a maximum possible of 3.
Understat’s model for xG is somewhat limited, it counts a shot and a rebound from the same move separately, which doesn’t reflect overall chances created/granted as well as models that average the xG in that kind of scenario. It also doesn’t take into account goalkeeper positioning and then there’s non-shot xG, which is about the times where a dangerous situation doesn’t result in a shot being taken. Think of a low cross across the six yard box that the striker isn’t quite alive to and misses the ball. That wouldn’t register as xG but should register as good chance creation.
All that said, the eye test would back up the expected points table pretty well. City are a fair way ahead, with the next five teams (Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton, Liverpool and ourselves) being pretty close to each other and then another big gap to Brentford, Tottenham, Villa and Chelsea.
many thanks for the detailed explanation
Yep, counting a shot and a rebound as separate xG are of course conditionally related. Not sure why they don't just use the 'complement rule' to handle such a scenario.
Do you have a link to the MC algorithm they use? Wondering if it is classic metropolis-hastings or a more complex Hamiltonian model, etc.
What kind of distribution is used? Poisson processes for each game?
Last edited:
Already been flagged for constant negativity, but in that case, is Liverpool’s squad 4 points worse than Newcastle? Time for Klopp to go then.
I remember when we use to win the league under fergie with these amount of points. Peps set the standards hasn’t he. I wish him and fergie could have gone head to head in the prem.
the league used to be far more competitive than now.
Agreed. Although when I speak to city fans we only had arsenal competing with us back then
I’d say top 4s more competitive now then what it was, you have teams like Newcastle, Brighton and villa pushing.Haha.. SAF already downed Mourinho's Chelsea and won it. Far greater achievement.
Next season we won’t have Maguire’s errors, that’s going to save us 9 points alone
We probably could have hit the 80s if we only had the league to concentrate upon but that's irrelevant.
Considering the stupendous standards set by Guardiola and his team even reaching a 90 point tally might not be enough to win you the title but nevertheless that should be the ideal to strive for as it would at least put us in a title race.
Considering the stupendous standards set by Guardiola and his team even reaching a 90 point tally might not be enough to win you the title but nevertheless that should be the ideal to strive for as it would at least put us in a title race.
As long as it's not replaced with Yerry Mina's errors then we should be alright
Mourinho never got the points pep does though. Well I think he got 95 pts once. Beating pep would have been a better achievement for us and fergie.
We’ll still have DDG though. Maguire rarely played so wasn’t all him.
Villa was also pushing at times during the Premier League's peak which was from 2005 to 2010. Brighton just took Everton's old position this year and this is just their first ever finish in the top 6.Agreed. Although when I speak to city fans we only had arsenal competing with us back then
The top 4 teams were just far more consistent back then and in Europe too.
Do you remember that Chelsea team though? And we beat them to the title with bang average players too. SAF would have crushed the modern competition if he was given such huge funding as his successors got.
Mourinho getting 80+ points with a utd side worse than this one, is an incredible achievement really
I don't think we can consider ourselves a 80+ points team by any stretch. We've lost points in a few easy games (Brighton home, Southampton home etc) but we were decisively beaten by almost all top 11 teams away (we lost to City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Brighton, Aston Villa and Brentford - drew with Spurs & Palace and a lucky last min win against Fulham). That makes it 1 W, 2D, 7L = 5 points out of possible 30.
75 points is a massive over achievement with our squad in ETH's first year. He's possibly added 10 points to the figure himself. Hopefully, we can build on this next season.
75 points is a massive over achievement with our squad in ETH's first year. He's possibly added 10 points to the figure himself. Hopefully, we can build on this next season.
Out of interest, which nine points do you think Maguire cost us this season? Given that he only played eight full 90 minutes, and we won six of those games. He was partly at fault for one of the goals in the defeat against Brighton, but DDG was very much to blame for the loss against Brentford.
That could have also won us the league but city was unreal that year. Didn’t they get like 100 points. We got 81 points and still finished 19 points behind 1st
That is exactly the right question, and one I really hope the board is asking itself.
The answer is, I think, largely "yes". If we don't significantly invest in improvement the team will flatline and then regress, as they learn and then accept that they're no better than this. We've seen it before, as we wasted the momentum from the superb finish to the 20/21 season by not making any signings that addressed the fundamental limitations of the team.
75 points is a very good total given our starting point. I am confident that we will improve considerably on that next year with a proper pre-season, training and getting 3 or 4 good players in.
That's true, we did start the season with zero points.
Yeah for De Gea.
I was joking
Seriously Howe has had 3 good transfer windows and almost 2 seasons to work with his squad, a squad that has good depth to it ETH has had 1 window can't count January as the Glazers game him nothing despite knowing they needed to improve the quality, Newcastle right now squad is simply better than ours, however I have no doubt that given the backing to improve the squad ETH can kick on next season.
Considering the money we spent/players we brought in, and how poor this season has been in general, I would say 75 is good but not amazing by any stretch.
Newcastle don't have good players though, their first 11 is worse than ours
75 points is our 2nd highest points tally since Fergie left
Considering we finished 2nd with 74, 2 seasons ago really shows it must be the peak of this current squad.
Add a competent #9 and an upgrade to the #8 role beside Case while clearing out the deadwood, we should be clearing 80-85 which could see us challenging next year.
Considering we finished 2nd with 74, 2 seasons ago really shows it must be the peak of this current squad.
Add a competent #9 and an upgrade to the #8 role beside Case while clearing out the deadwood, we should be clearing 80-85 which could see us challenging next year.
I think realistically the current squad is maybe an 80 points a season team as there’s been ridiculous individual errors that have cost us points this season as well as the 7 games we were without Casemiro at a time he was arguably the best midfielder in the league.
You throw in a quality partner in midfield for Casemiro, a quality centre forward and a keeper who doesn’t look like he’s been passed the plague when the ball is passed to him and I think you’ve got a 90 points a season squad.
You throw in a quality partner in midfield for Casemiro, a quality centre forward and a keeper who doesn’t look like he’s been passed the plague when the ball is passed to him and I think you’ve got a 90 points a season squad.
Away form has been bad realy especially against the bigger sides, that needs to improve, that only will get better with better squad. I thought we would get around 80 pts this season, but looking back 75 was probably it. Injuries suspensions and the very odd away game display we should all be pretty satisfied with ETH first season.
Spot on.75 points is our 2nd highest points tally since Fergie left
Considering we finished 2nd with 74, 2 seasons ago really shows it must be the peak of this current squad.
Add a competent #9 and an upgrade to the #8 role beside Case while clearing out the deadwood, we should be clearing 80-85 which could see us challenging next year.
While I am in the “buy four, sell at least four” camp, if we can manage brining in only a proper 9 and a proper 8 we’re set to challenge next season.
But on the point of this thread, 75 points is a remarkable achievement when looked at through another lens — the number of players who have been consistently outstanding for us: 5, Shaw, Martinez, Casemiro, Bruno and Rashford. Our front line has been atrocious, we have no depth in midfield, and we went a long stretch this season weak at RB. De Gea gets way way more abuse than he deserves, but even he would admit that he was not outstanding this season.
How ETH pulled off this magic trick especially with Rashford alone doing the heavy lifting on the front line we’ll never know.
Has Case not got those suspensions back to back and Antony hit the ground running perhaps got second but all teams have the same Ifs and Buts. Apart from city of course linked to having the best squad in the league and perhaps ever in the league.
I think that's recency bias. You regularly had United, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Leeds, Blackburn and Chelsea in or around the top 4 spots with teams like West Ham, Villa and even one season Ipswich coming around 5th or 6th.Agreed. Although when I speak to city fans we only had arsenal competing with us back then
Plenty of teams have had one off seasons where they finish 5th or 6th, but then have a massive drop off when they have to juggle European and domestic football the following season. I'm pretty sure we'll see something similar with either Villa or Brighton next season, probably both.
We have a +17 point swing from last season, and a good plan to improve us for next season without the meddling directors buying unsuitable players.
We are where Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took us with someone who has managed finals winning teams. Next season we will have a better squad and I am hopeful that we will have a better squad.
We are where Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took us with someone who has managed finals winning teams. Next season we will have a better squad and I am hopeful that we will have a better squad.
pep set the standard for spending feckin fortunes to get the squad he wants. always had money to do this. For that reason, i discount him from vs fergie. Lot of fergies squad has seriously average players in them. more heart than skills...
You cant expect it, but to mount a title challenge to City you need your best players available all season. Nobody outside of them has a good enough squad but any of the top 4 or 5 teams has an 11 that could run them close. This season Arsenal managed to keep their best players on the pitch for the most part, next season with any luck we can do it too.
Our goal for the summer should be to go from a reliable 12 or 13 players to a reliable 15 or 16.
Pep is a very good manager but it's just dumb, how do you "set the standards" if you required unlimited amount of money that only Man City can provide (as well as cheating) to achieve that "standard"?
It's already dumb to say "Man City set the standards" but it's even dumber to say "Pep set the standards". How about Man City resources? unlimited money? much better sport science? under the table payment?
If any, Klopp matched that "standard" for few years without the same backing and cheating.
Yea because it's totally logical to compare the point from current times to previous times. SAF's Manchester United never have the same financial advantage over other teams in England (as well as in Europe) at the level of Man City, and we didn't have any asterisk to any of our title or cup.
Pep never win anything worthy without having an absolute great squad consisted of a literal football god, or having unlimited resources (and still cheat). He would have to do better to have achievement similar to Mourinho let alone SAF.
Very funny ... But I meant from where we were last season. I just did not make that clear!That's true, we did start the season with zero points.
I know what you meant, it was a lighthearted joke.