That is a fantastic post. I have to put my hands up: I scoffed at somebody on here (can't remember who but if you're reading this, please accept my apologies!) who claimed that there were like 12-15 better keepers than DDG in the EPL; while I'm still not sure he would be that low on the list, with every passing game and mistake, I'm realizing that he needs to go. I'd be tempted to make it priority number 1.
A Look at Goalkeeper Options and Replacing De Gea
- Thread starter sifi36
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Fair play for pointing out that he had a point.
It's actually even worse, as several of the second choice goal keepers also are better than DDG.
His only "positive" attribute is shot stopping, and he is even statistically mediocre in that area, which is his "best" skill. In other areas, he is mostly woefully bad.
Couple that with the fact that he is the highest paid player in the entire Premier League... Not to mention the highest paid goalkeeper in the entire world, of ALL time.... It really is crazy that United have stuck with him for so long.
Dean Henderson isn't the best, but it is perfectly understandable that he wouldn't accept playing second fiddle to such a poor keeper. He beats him in most areas. It makes no sense. And we had him for free as an academy product. To not give him the chance is really symptomatic of how so many inside the club have no clue. Benni McCarthy said just the other day that it would be insane to sell De Gea... It genuinely scares me that someone who is so clueless is part of our coaching staff. And it only makes you wonder how many other idiots are in the apparatus.
Most of the stats I've seen only seemed to really start in 17/18 (his last great season), and yes they do show that his shot-stopping was at a brilliant level that season. Those stats also showed he did very well in the first half of 21/22. Which, as you said, validates the stats as if they do accurately show when he's doing well then they should also be accurate when they show he isn't. I'm confident if the stats went back further than 17/18 they would have shown him consistently very high before that as well.
Looking at FBRef, their PSxG-GA (Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed) is the one to look at when judging shot-stopping. Basically it judges the difficulty of every save that the keeper has to make to stop a shot on goal, and compares it to how many the keeper actually concedes. Somebody in the 50th percentile would concede exactly as many goals as what the 'average' goalkeeper would be expected to concede considering the shots they had to deal with, with the higher the percentile the further ahead of the 'average' they are. Like many stats it's not something I'd rely on in terms of individual games, but becomes more and more accurate with larger sample sizes. In 17/18 he was in the 98th percentile for all keepers in Europe, then dropped to 69th percentile, 55th percentile, 56th, back up to 90th percentile in 21/22 (almost exclusively because he over-performed so much in the first half of the season) and back down to 63rd percentile this season. So basically the stats show his shot-stopping was at an elite level in the first half of 21/22, but otherwise he's only been an 'above average' shot-stopper for the last five years. Which is basically agreeing with what most of his critics have been saying, and disagreeing with those who continue to say he's still an elite shot-stopper.
Unsurprisingly De Gea's other stats (claiming crosses, sweeping, passing) have been poor the entire time even in 17/18. The one exception was in 20/21 it appears he was at a good level with how much he was sweeping. That instantly dropped right off again the following season though, and despite improving a bit again this season he was still well below average. Not sure if it was the cause, but 20/21 was the one season that he had competition for his spot and Henderson's willingness to act as a sweeper (he was sweeping 40% more than De Gea was even in that one good season) was one of the main attributes people were pointing to.
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His magnum opus was the Arsenal away game that season. The one that led to all the hilarious AFTV clips
He conceded 1 goal from 5 post-shot xG. I’ve never seen a keeper beat post-shot xG by that much, or even get close. It ought to be up there alongside Messi against Arsenal, Ronaldinho in El Classico in 2005 and Zidane against Brazil in 2006 as one of the greatest individual performances of all time.
The average goalkeeper would have conceded five goals that day, and he kept it to one. I think we won 3-1 that day, but we could and should have lost, bar some De Gea brilliance.
He conceded 1 goal from 5 post-shot xG. I’ve never seen a keeper beat post-shot xG by that much, or even get close. It ought to be up there alongside Messi against Arsenal, Ronaldinho in El Classico in 2005 and Zidane against Brazil in 2006 as one of the greatest individual performances of all time.
The average goalkeeper would have conceded five goals that day, and he kept it to one. I think we won 3-1 that day, but we could and should have lost, bar some De Gea brilliance.
But you do see that you prove my point here, right? You stat-pick a stat from 2005. 18 years back.
You also state that shot stopping from De Gea is not that important as shot preventing from our defence is, but you can argue so many things with stats. Burnley in one or their and Pope’s best defensive seasons had tons of shots at goal (many at low quality), but yet many clean sheets. Its all about how you allow them and how you fit your goalkeeper to the style you want to implement. Im saying your stats look good and well documented, but it’s really hard to be concluding that much from them really. Of course zero shots at goal would be great, but i’m not sure your stats mentioned above are a testiment that De Gea is only a mediocre goalkeeper.
And Im not out to necessarily defend De Gea. Im just saying this is the prime example of stats being used in any way one want them to. One could basically argue for and against everything by taking a stat here and there. My point is that true scouting, where you see the goalkeeper up close and how he fits the style we want to play will probably be just as important before deciding to try out Maignan or Costa. Most fans can also by watching all games a season see both the pace in the premier league and that we need a goalkeeper who can pass.
On another note: Its in a different area, but Mkhitaryan was also filled with amazing world beating stats before he joined us from a lesser league, same with Sancho. The point is that all these twitter stats that always pop up in these threads are rarely of any big use because you need the overall context and what type of team and league they play for/in.
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I agree with you, that the stats are not even close to a full picture of the goalkeepers. I even think that the GK position is one where scouting/«eye test» and full player evaluation(personality, professionalism etc) is most inportant. Like you say mentioning Mkhitaryan and Sancho, the stats «value» has to be modified by different factors like league etc, but it is a nice addition to the whole picture.
For me, the «eye test» of DDG to a quite good degree fit the stats presented, and along with other factors like him having a negative impact on the mental strength of the back 5(part of «eye test», but still) , his way-over-the-top salary, and that he presumably does not have the qualities required to help project ETH take the next step. Which is part of your point aswell, DDG might be better for a different team more suited to his strengths, but that is not really possible to evaluate atm.
The same evaluation would have to be done with incomings ofcourse, but stats are imo a decent starting point to see which players should be considered and more deeply scouted.
Guessing we agreeon most things, just different way of putting it.
Watching the game today, it seems most top clubs in Europe have ball playing keepers. It's amazing how much of a difference this could make. Honestly replacing De Gea should be a top priority in the summer, way more than a new CB. Giving De Gea a new contract would be a huge mistake.
Absolutely. We need a ball playing keeper. De Gea isn't that keeper. Onana was great today. Didn't Onana and Ten Hag have difficulties during their time at Ajax?
I just came to say exactly the same thing. De Gea near commands the box, nor can he be trusted with playing from the back.
How much would Onana cost? He's so great with the ball on his feet.
Someone to do what Ederson did at the end there please. That claim from the freekivks just takes all pressure off of his team.
Seeing how Onana played for Inter in the CL final, we definitely don't have that sort of flexibility. I don't really want to get rid of DeGea, but I can see the appeal of a keeper who is very comfortable playing with his feet.
That was really great, and something that De Gea would never do. I feel bad shitting on De Gea considering his long career with United, but I honestly think he's a massive liability at this point.
Watching the match two major differences as compared to our match vs City was:
Their Goal keeper, who played it out of the back comfortably and thus resulted in Inter being able create good chances against City after beating the press, plus none of City chances were because Onana booted it in the middle and City countered like it was with us.
In today's match their strikers were actually getting their flick ons and were actually competing with City Cbs, as against Rashford who was not even jumping and playing half arsed.
Its imperative we get a ball playing goal keeper, who will allow us to play out of the back and beat the press. Plus this stupid booting it up the field and squandering possession at every opportunity has soo many downsides:
1) It does mot allows us to control the game
2) Puts excessive emphasis on our defenders and allows other team to create high quality chances
3) Defenders and team gets tired constantly chasing the ball back and forth
4) This tactic is stupid with strikers who don't even compete and make a nuisance.
Their Goal keeper, who played it out of the back comfortably and thus resulted in Inter being able create good chances against City after beating the press, plus none of City chances were because Onana booted it in the middle and City countered like it was with us.
In today's match their strikers were actually getting their flick ons and were actually competing with City Cbs, as against Rashford who was not even jumping and playing half arsed.
Its imperative we get a ball playing goal keeper, who will allow us to play out of the back and beat the press. Plus this stupid booting it up the field and squandering possession at every opportunity has soo many downsides:
1) It does mot allows us to control the game
2) Puts excessive emphasis on our defenders and allows other team to create high quality chances
3) Defenders and team gets tired constantly chasing the ball back and forth
4) This tactic is stupid with strikers who don't even compete and make a nuisance.
You will seldom see a match that so blatantly demonstrates everything we're missing in the goalkeeping department as that one.
I think Onana's performance in particular is worth highlighting. A huge part of the reason why, in spite of their victory, City weren't able to dominate Inter in the way they do so many other sides was Onana's brilliant performance on the ball. He was able to play through that City press with such confidence, rather than just going long every time, and this helped prevent Inter from being subjected to an onslaught.
Goalkeepers' ball-playing ability is often talked about in the context of dominating games but Onana tonight showed just how much of an asset it can be to a side looking to prevent their opponents from dominating as well.
I think Onana's performance in particular is worth highlighting. A huge part of the reason why, in spite of their victory, City weren't able to dominate Inter in the way they do so many other sides was Onana's brilliant performance on the ball. He was able to play through that City press with such confidence, rather than just going long every time, and this helped prevent Inter from being subjected to an onslaught.
Goalkeepers' ball-playing ability is often talked about in the context of dominating games but Onana tonight showed just how much of an asset it can be to a side looking to prevent their opponents from dominating as well.
I thought Onana’s distribution was a bit off but his starting position is so different to DDG it’s mad to watch. He is constantly getting on the ball outside his box. DDG will do this, maybe one a match. If that. It creates an extra man at the back. Being unable to do this essentially leaves us a man down. It’s such a massive hindrance to playing modern football.
Onana looked great, I have to say.
He actually started most of inters best moves by getting on the ball encouraging the press then playing right through it. Picked numerous passes right through the middle of city into there strikers feet.
Inter just didn't quite have the quality in the final third to make it count.
Really enjoyed Onana's performance, but it also made me sick thinking about how we are still compleatly stuck in the dark ages with De Gea.
Either you are not serious Or Onana is even better on the ball than what we saw today. Bar one pass, he was sensational on the ball.
Ten Hag coached him too so if theres anyone who knows what we are missing, it should be him. He knows what a keeper whos good on the ball can do.
I'd like the de Gea fans in our support base, who watched Onana's performance tonight, to explain what in particular it is about de Gea's game that makes him so indispensable?
And I want very specific examples of the advantages he brings to the team, because I would genuinely love to hear them.
And I want very specific examples of the advantages he brings to the team, because I would genuinely love to hear them.
Bart Verbruggen is there for 15mill euro's and we're targetting Pickford for 30+mill apparently? If I speak
If we actually go for Pickford as our new keeper we deserve to stay very far behind the top level.
Talk about no ambition if that's the case
Talk about no ambition if that's the case
There were probably just 2 passes that were sloppy and just stuck in your memory but just the confidence and ability to be able to play some of those splitting passes right down the middle to instantly kill the press, that stuff is the difference.
If we get that clown and the Chelsea dross, no back your manager spiel will convince me we're on the right track short of winning a title.
Mount I can stomach depending on our other business and price but Pickford is essentially the equivalent of buyin failure.
It makes no sense to buy a goalkeeper we know is not good enough. Same way it makes no sense to stick with De Gea.
It wasn't even the distribution. Onana coming to claim a few free kicks / crosses completely killed that element of city play and meant city did it less.
Ederson too, near the end killing an inter attack by coming and grabbing that free kick.
Also the starting positions which allow for the extra man by pretty much sweeping the ball over the top that was near the edge of the box
Forget the modern keeper stuff, it's some of the stuff you want from a basic keeper which ours can't do and is excused from doing by done of our fanbase which is baffling
Ederson too, near the end killing an inter attack by coming and grabbing that free kick.
Also the starting positions which allow for the extra man by pretty much sweeping the ball over the top that was near the edge of the box
Forget the modern keeper stuff, it's some of the stuff you want from a basic keeper which ours can't do and is excused from doing by done of our fanbase which is baffling
Pickford is a huge step up on de gea while also being very far from the requirement of what we need. He isn't even that good on the ball. Onana today is an example of being quality on the ball, Pickford panics way more and isn't that composed. His medium range passing is also a bit hit and miss for me which is far more important than long range passing for a keeper.
TBF to Pickford he's playing for Everton and Dyche
We are going nowhere without a new keeper, De Gea is streets behind in todays game.
Yeah but even for England, he's way too much of a panic inducing goalkeeper and on the ball he is decent at best imo. Basically Onana today is the example I'll keep pointing to but Pickford isn't capable of that and for me is more average ball playing level than in the realm of Allison, ederson, Onana or Ramsdale even.
Saying that, still a big improvement on de Gea in terms of braveness of actually trying to deal with high balls (not good at it, but de Gea atrocious at it) and playing out from the back. Those 2 are my biggest priorities for me. So depends on price. Would rather Diogo Costa or raya or emi Martinez.
Considering our budget, I‘d wanna take a punt on someone like Bart Verbruggen or another hot prospect.
Playing for England he's got Maguire in front of him!
He's the obvious choice. Budget, age, skill profile. It depends on ETH trusting DDG to pass the gauntlet on naturally.
As much as it's fecking horrible, the best scenario for the club is DDG signing a 2 year contract with a clause sending him to US/Saudi for a final pay day. Our job to replace.
It's so obvious too how much of an issue De Glued is even without the shot stopping howlers, that I still can't come up with a decent reason for why we are looking to resign him unless that answer is really just pure incompetence from Ten Hag and the staff (which is tough to believe).
I really don't think people realize how much better we instantly would play with Costa or someone similar in net. Higher lines, easier playing through any sort of press, counter attacks started quicker, and less pressure on the CB's to deal with every cross or aerial ball in the box.
It amazes me how you can explain the FFP rules so clearly and succinctly, and yet people will still reply that we don’t have the budget to buy a new keeper. Who said we only have budget for 1 signing anyway. When has that ever been the case at United. We spent a load of money last summer and we weren’t even in the Champions League.
It’s a shame because you’ve clearly spent a lot of time crunching the numbers and presenting them back to us in a clear format, yet people just go back to the same sound bite that’s being peddled before. It’s like facts mean nothing to them and their blind devotion to Dave is unwavering.
Anyway, I for one appreciate the work you’ve done on this and wish we could discuss every potential signing with the same focus on statistical analysis you’ve presented in the OP.
P.S. Why in heaven’s name would we want a £100k+ a week back up goalkeeper.
Don't be sentimental,yes he has been a great servant for 12 years but it's a new era now
Apparently Brighton are sniffing around
Goalkeeper is probably the easiest position on the pitch to use statistics as most goalkeeper actions are discrete, independent of teammates and movement around the pitch (I feel this is super important for outfield players) is less of an issue.It amazes me how you can explain the FFP rules so clearly and succinctly, and yet people will still reply that we don’t have the budget to buy a new keeper. Who said we only have budget for 1 signing anyway. When has that ever been the case at United. We spent a load of money last summer and we weren’t even in the Champions League.
It’s a shame because you’ve clearly spent a lot of time crunching the numbers and presenting them back to us in a clear format, yet people just go back to the same sound bite that’s being peddled before. It’s like facts mean nothing to them and their blind devotion to Dave is unwavering.
Anyway, I for one appreciate the work you’ve done on this and wish we could discuss every potential signing with the same focus on statistical analysis you’ve presented in the OP.
P.S. Why in heaven’s name would we want a £100k+ a week back up goalkeeper.
I’d love to be able to do something similar for other positions on the pitch, but I’m not confident that the freely available data would give us anything particularly useful, except in super obvious cases.
An example of that would be Bruno Guimaraes, whose profile on FBREF was incredible. He was in the 90th percentile for most passing, dribbling and creative stats, and the 80th percentile for most defensive statistics.
Watching the final yesterday, as well as many other games this season (especially our big away games), it feels to me that we lack running power, especially in midfield, as well as the ability to play in tight spaces so we get overrun. There aren’t any stats that quantify either of these.
Things like expected threat, possession normalised pressures, true tackles, number of sprints, average running speed, passes under pressure etc. would all be needed to be able to judge outfield players well in my view.
There was a point sometime in the last ten minutes when Inter were chasing when Onana was actually further forward than the last CB, and was playing the ball forward from there! It wasn't even like just a run out, he remained in that position offering himself as a passing option for a while. It was insane.
If that's not bad enough a reminder of what we have in our goal, when you look at the other end, that last set piece when Ederson came out and claimed the ball from the free kick, DDG never even does that.
I've banged this drum for a while now but it's not only the on the ball stuff that he's below par in, but also more traditional aspects of keeping like being good in the air and on set pieces.