ABBA

Akshay

Moderator
Staff
Joined
Jun 14, 2014
Messages
10,860
Location
A base camp for the last, final assault
Statistically, did they take into account who took the penalties ?
Basically, is it actually a problem or are the statistics just a result of who's better.
With a large enough sample that shouldn't matter, as which team goes first is selected randomly. I've no idea if the study was large enough to be conclusive though.
 

Oscie

New Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2016
Messages
3,680
Absolute shite. Meddling for the sake of meddling.
 

Snowjoe

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
Staff
Joined
Jan 14, 2013
Messages
30,325
Location
Lake Athabasca
Supports
Cheltenham Town
Such a weird thing for some people to be so bothered about :lol:
 

Brwned

Have you ever been in love before?
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
50,848
I support changes that benefit the sport. I really like the 30 minute half idea. But this doesn't work for me. May well grow on me...
You can't just dismiss the objective evidence because you don't like it though. That's the kind of thinking that leads to organisations going backwards and corruption festering in the darkness. You either decide to take on board all evidence and make decisions based on that, or you dismiss all evidence and decisions based on what you think is right. You can't pick and choose.
 

BlueViper

Full Member
Joined
Dec 16, 2016
Messages
115
Supports
Chelsea
No idea why Courtois took a penalty, though.
He's taken one before in a preseason game and it was very good. I'm sure most players are capable of banging them in, just more about nerves and composure on the day.

As for the new system, it's good they're trying to even any advantage but it seems it brought one for the team going second today? Ordinarily, when Arsenal make it 1-3, Chelsea could potentially put pressure on them again by scoring the next one. Here it went from 2-1 to 4-1 without a chance of a reply.
 

P-Nut

fan of well-known French footballer Fabinho
Joined
Oct 16, 2015
Messages
21,668
Location
Oldham, Greater Manchester
I actually don't know why they don't split the penalties at each end.

Both teams shoot where their fans are, would add another level of fairness to me it seems.
 

saivet

Full Member
Joined
Feb 22, 2013
Messages
25,345
It's really when a penalty shootout is at a sudden death position where the difference will be made. Today, people are saying 'pointless' but that's only because Chelsea missed two in a row. No matter what order you do that it in, you're likely to lose.
 

Fener1907

Full Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2014
Messages
3,102
Location
Istanchester
Only just realised that this was a thing today. Will this new penalty order format be used across Europe?

To me, it seems like a poor idea to make penalties more exciting/fair. Trying too hard to freshen up something that doesn't need changing.
It's more than that. There was research done that revealed a significant advantage for the team going first, meaning it's more than a case of merely 'freshening up something'. Lots of opinions here, however, are based on emotions and nothing more. For the lazy:

The idea is to stop the team going second having to always, potentially, play catch-up. The sport's rule-making body, Ifab, approved the trial after looking at the research that says the team taking the first penalty have an unfair advantage as they win 60% of shootouts.
Full article.
 

Bubz27

No I won’t change your tag line
Joined
Aug 17, 2009
Messages
21,587
Pointless change. If they really want to make penalties more exciting allow the player to run up from the half way line, and allow the 'keeper to come off the line.
 

BlueViper

Full Member
Joined
Dec 16, 2016
Messages
115
Supports
Chelsea
I actually don't know why they don't split the penalties at each end.

Both teams shoot where their fans are, would add another level of fairness to me it seems.
On the count of three, both players should simultaneously shoot as well :drool:
 

duffer

Sensible and not a complete jerk like most oppo's
Scout
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
50,434
Location
Chelsea (the saviours of football) fan.
If the side taking the first pen (using the old system) won 60% of the time. What are the percentages for the ABBA system? Have they used it anywhere else?
 

AshRK

Full Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2017
Messages
12,193
Location
Canada
Penalty is a game of nerves and this change gives immense advantage to team going second. For ex- today morata would have been under more pressure after tibo's miss. And ox would have been more calm considering Chelsea missed two pens and he has less pressure.

Unnecessary change if you ask me. Why fix those things which need not require fixing.
 

el3mel

Full Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2016
Messages
43,735
Location
Egypt
It somewhat killed the excitement of the penalties for me I have to say tbh. The second one to shot will have the biggest chance to win it.
 

Stactix

Full Member
Joined
Nov 3, 2015
Messages
1,788
Based on those statistics, it's a needed change. I'd also be in favour of having penalties switch sides after each 5 goes.

Not sure why people are moaning about such a minor change which could make penalties fairer..
If it knocks the w/r of going first to 55% or lower then it's a great change.
 

sullydnl

Ross Kemp's caf ID
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
34,063
Penalty is a game of nerves and this change gives immense advantage to team going second. For ex- today morata would have been under more pressure after tibo's miss. And ox would have been more calm considering Chelsea missed two pens and he has less pressure.

Unnecessary change if you ask me. Why fix those things which need not require fixing.
Even if this system gave the second kicker an advantage, that still leaves it on par with the previous system which gave the first kicker an advantage.

The difference is, we have actual statistical evidence showing that the previous system aided the first kicker, whereas we have no evidence that this system is unfair in the same way.

I don't see why a 60/40 advantage to one team wouldn't require fixing, especially when attempting to fix it involves such a minor, painless change.
 

AshRK

Full Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2017
Messages
12,193
Location
Canada
Even if this system gave the second kicker an advantage, that still leaves it on par with the previous system which gave the first kicker an advantage.

The difference is, we have actual statistical evidence showing that the previous system aided the first kicker, whereas we have no evidence that this system is unfair in the same way.
The first system the advantage was less, considering the pens were taken alternatively. In this case a player will feel more pressure if he has to take the penalty immediately after his teammate had just missed or will be under less pressure if he knows his opponents have missed 2 pens in succession and he still has advantage.
 

Fener1907

Full Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2014
Messages
3,102
Location
Istanchester
If the side taking the first pen (using the old system) won 60% of the time. What are the percentages for the ABBA system? Have they used it anywhere else?
It was first introduced over the summer at UEFA tournaments, and there doesn't appear to be any data floating around right now. I think this is still considered the 'trial period', so I guess they're waiting for a good amount of data before coming to any conclusions about whether or not it's successful.
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,702
Location
C-137
The first system the advantage was less, considering the pens were taken alternatively. In this case a player will feel more pressure if he has to take the penalty immediately after his teammate had just missed or will be under less pressure if he knows his opponents have missed 2 pens in succession and he still has advantage.
ABBAABBAAB

In the old system, the team that went first won 60% of the time.

This system will probably be fair
 

sullydnl

Ross Kemp's caf ID
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
34,063
The first system the advantage was less, considering the pens were taken alternatively. In this case a player will feel more pressure if he has to take the penalty immediately after his teammate had just missed or will be under less pressure if he knows his opponents have missed 2 pens in succession and he still has advantage.
In which case we'll eventually have statistical evidence that shows that this system is worse, at which point they can try something else. Until then there’s just your subjective opinion that this set up is worse, which doesn't really mean much when so many others would argue the reverse. The only way to know is to try it and assess the results.
 

duffer

Sensible and not a complete jerk like most oppo's
Scout
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
50,434
Location
Chelsea (the saviours of football) fan.
It was first introduced over the summer at UEFA tournaments, and there doesn't appear to be any data floating around right now. I think this is still considered the 'trial period', so I guess they're waiting for a good amount of data before coming to any conclusions about whether or not it's successful.
Interesting, thanks.

It's very unusual for them to test stuff out in the England. I've got no problem with it personally.
 

Summit

"do the dead, spread your seed and get out"
Joined
Nov 10, 2011
Messages
51,054
It's almost as if this used to be a rule before called the Golden Goal
When did the golden goal require you to keep playing until someone scores?
 

Akshay

Moderator
Staff
Joined
Jun 14, 2014
Messages
10,860
Location
A base camp for the last, final assault
As for the new system, it's good they're trying to even any advantage but it seems it brought one for the team going second today? Ordinarily, when Arsenal make it 1-3, Chelsea could potentially put pressure on them again by scoring the next one. Here it went from 2-1 to 4-1 without a chance of a reply.
Could have gone the other way though. If Arsenal had missed their first two penalties and Chelsea scored both, then Arsenal's penalty taker would be in a do or die situation. Ultimately Chelsea screwing up two consecutive penalties is what cost them.
 

MThomas

New Member
Joined
Apr 14, 2004
Messages
16,718
Location
Figo: In Spain we called Benitez 'píldora para dor
With a large enough sample that shouldn't matter, as which team goes first is selected randomly. I've no idea if the study was large enough to be conclusive though.
There's quite the amount of factors coming into play here.

But what's easy to break down is the top teams in competitive matches and the statistics from there..Chelsea have been in two Champions League finals, both ended with penalty kicks, both times they didn't start, they lost the first one and won the second.
 

Moby

Dick
Joined
May 20, 2011
Messages
51,356
Location
Barcelona, Catalunya
Nah, golden goal was bullshit because teams just parked the bus and waited for penalties.
Yeah but it was still shit coz the other team didnt get any time to equalise.

A formalised way to what you want will be what they do in basketball - have overtimes with shortened time periods and repeat that until the tie's been broken. So basically repeated 30-min extratimes.
 

Akshay

Moderator
Staff
Joined
Jun 14, 2014
Messages
10,860
Location
A base camp for the last, final assault
There's quite the amount of factors coming into play here.

But what's easy to break down is the top teams in competitive matches and the statistics from there..Chelsea have been in two Champions League finals, both ended with penalty kicks, both times they didn't start, they lost the first one and won the second.
Two random games, regardless of the competition or competitors, is much too small a sample size to mean anything. I'll take the study over anecdotal evidence like that every day.
 

Ecstatic

Cutie patootie!
Joined
Nov 26, 2015
Messages
13,787
Supports
PsG
The idea is just to say "Hey! We're English and different from others. We're also innovative. We think and make the Future"
 

duffer

Sensible and not a complete jerk like most oppo's
Scout
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
50,434
Location
Chelsea (the saviours of football) fan.
Yeah but it was still shit coz the other team didnt get any time to equalise.

A formalised way to what you want will be what they do in basketball - have overtimes with shortened time periods and repeat that until the tie's been broken. So basically repeated 30-min extratimes.
I've have a guaranteed 30 minutes of extra time and then "next goal wins it". Football games should be decided by people playing football.
 

El cangrejo

New Member
Joined
Sep 11, 2016
Messages
675
Supports
FC Luzern
It's almost as if this used to be a rule before called the Golden Goal
That's not how Golden Goal worked though. It was still only 30 minutes and then went to penalties if no-one scored.

30 minutes of regular extra time followed by Golden Goal would be better than penalties.