Not at all. Why should they?
Afghanistan
- Thread starter Sherzad
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You kinda have to assume that the Taliban "learned their lesson" on that particular issue. Taliban are going to do Taliban things, but I reckon they'll be very careful not to get connected to any sort of terrorist attack in the west.
@Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær and I were talking about that somewhere. Well, I asked a suggestive question and he responded.
My newspaper had an article on this just today actually. They explain that people's perceptions of the strength of the Taliban vary a lot. Just in 2018, estimates of its size by military and other specialists varied from 60k to 100k to 200k (a force of 200k with 150k fighters). At the same time, perceptions of the Afghan army are going down, as groups are falling over and fleeing far more quickly than expected, while the air power and commandos of Afghanistan's 'official' army can't make the dent they were expected to make. And so expectations for Taliban success are going up very quickly: in June, American intelligence services thought it would take at least six months before Kabul was in danger of being taken by the Taliban, while now they've brought that back to three months, and others think within a month.
[pedant] George Santayana actually, as quoted by Churchill. [/pedant]
Pretty much zero. But they will have their hands full within Afghanistan since all the other ethnicities won't be interested in having them dominate their areas - Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks and large swaths of people in the big cities. So there would be some form of insurgency to resist them.
Out of 1 (no chance) and 10 (every chance) what is your rating, I don't think we should have ANY military presence there but clearly the Taliban will aid in any victory against the West.
I doubt it. The Taliban have never attacked anyone outside of thier borders.
911 was supposedly carried out by Al Queda who's leader the Taliban offered to arrest and hand over to Saudi Arabia if given proof of his involvement.
The Taliban are a vicious barbaric lot, but they're not some global terror outfit.
What will be interesting to see is thier approach to ethnic minorities, sectarianism, religious minorities and providing shelter to external elements.
The Talibans English language spokesman has said the Taliban won't allow its land to be used to attack any other country. Pakistan is asking these assurances to tackle Baloch terrorist groups and the TLP (a Pakistani version of the Taliban who've retreated into Afghanistan under the wing of Afghan intelligence).
We'll have to see. On the face of it the Taliban are looking for relations with the world, but let's see if senior command can control local leaders.
For example Pakistan wants an end to cross border terrorism. Pakistan is the supply line of Afghanistan so you think they'll need to try to honour that.
The Taliban have a relationship with Iran too now. You can't butcher Shia Hazara and expect to maintain that relationship. If they have any sense they'll try to build a relationship with Iran to not be reliant on Pakistan. I suspect some agreement is in place as they've taken Herat which neighbours Iran and apart from during the Taliban rule was under the control of an Iranian backed militia run by Ismael Khan.
They've provided assurances to Russia that they will respect the border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Will that extend to respect for ethnic Tajiks and uzbeks? Maybe - they are more ethnically diverse than they used to be and have over run the North surprisingly fast.
Turkey is also backing a warlord Dostum who has Turkic blood. They want assurances of the safety of thier ethnic brothers and offered to hold Kabul airport as a neutral zone. That didn't happen, Dostums territory has been over run but will the Taliban respect Turkish requests?
They've even met a Chinese delegation to discuss security and trade. The Chinese don't want any interference in Xianjing.
It might be they're saying all the right things to clear a path to power but if they actually deliver and keep Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China, Turkey and the 'Stan States onside - they could exist in the international sphere without western support or recognition.
The Talibans English language spokesman has said the Taliban won't allow its land to be used to attack any other country. Pakistan is asking these assurances to tackle Baloch terrorist groups and the TLP (a Pakistani version of the Taliban who've retreated into Afghanistan under the wing of Afghan intelligence).
We'll have to see. On the face of it the Taliban are looking for relations with the world, but let's see if senior command can control local leaders.
For example Pakistan wants an end to cross border terrorism. Pakistan is the supply line of Afghanistan so you think they'll need to try to honour that.
The Taliban have a relationship with Iran too now. You can't butcher Shia Hazara and expect to maintain that relationship. If they have any sense they'll try to build a relationship with Iran to not be reliant on Pakistan. I suspect some agreement is in place as they've taken Herat which neighbours Iran and apart from during the Taliban rule was under the control of an Iranian backed militia run by Ismael Khan.
They've provided assurances to Russia that they will respect the border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Will that extend to respect for ethnic Tajiks and uzbeks? Maybe - they are more ethnically diverse than they used to be and have over run the North surprisingly fast.
Turkey is also backing a warlord Dostum who has Turkic blood. They want assurances of the safety of thier ethnic brothers and offered to hold Kabul airport as a neutral zone. That didn't happen, Dostums territory has been over run but will the Taliban respect Turkish requests?
They've even met a Chinese delegation to discuss security and trade. The Chinese don't want any interference in Xianjing.
It might be they're saying all the right things to clear a path to power but if they actually deliver and keep Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China, Turkey and the 'Stan States onside - they could exist in the international sphere without western support or recognition.
Apparently Herat and Kandahar have fallen.
This only leaves Mazar e Sharif and Kabul as big cities not in Taliban control. I think they have 13 of 34 provincial capitals?
This only leaves Mazar e Sharif and Kabul as big cities not in Taliban control. I think they have 13 of 34 provincial capitals?
If all the cities are falling in just days, what did the US do for 20 years?
Jalalabad is another major city.
Training, rebuilding, investing in infrastructure, the rule of law etc. None of it does much when there's as much corruption and a lack of political will to strengthen democracy.
What is the Taliban's overall objective?
Is it to have the Afghani state to live life under the Taliban's concept of an Islamic state and engage with a multicultural, diverse global economy, or is it a staging point for a unified global Islamic state, or somewhere in between?
Is it to have the Afghani state to live life under the Taliban's concept of an Islamic state and engage with a multicultural, diverse global economy, or is it a staging point for a unified global Islamic state, or somewhere in between?
Funded and propped up an incompetent, corrupt bunch of warlords and drug runners masquerading as a government.
Karzai's brother was a drug trafficker.
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/world/asia/05afghan.html
They even suspected Karzai was a junkie.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...apr/07/hamid-karzai-galbraith-substance-abuse
He himself admitted how corrupt they were.
https://apnews.com/article/hamid-ka...-ap-top-news-1419420df4e2e7186222c38db3be707d
The Afghan army was fond of raping boys. The US military was told to ignore it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/24/us-military-sexual-abuse-children-afghanistan-allies
The military and police was also corrupt and incompent.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...ghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-army-police/
Govt officials regularly smuggled cash abroad.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c57b80-43b3-11e2-8061-253bccfc7532_story.html
They all have palaces. As well as places in Dubai (world's dirty money capital).
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.c...-officials-families-with-luxury-pads-in-dubai
The govt robbed its own banks.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/afghan-bank-scandal-shows-extent-of-corruption/a-16429096
NATO paid the Taliban not to attack them.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2009/oct/16/france-italy-taliban-afghanistan
Some govt workers even moonlighted as Taliban.
It's a right shitshow.
Excellent write up @Zlatattack , very informative and accurate.
There are countless stories such as this:
There are countless stories such as this:
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The former to an extent. I doubt they have any desire for a diverse global economy. But who knows, this incarnation of the Taliban may have different ambitions.
It’s never been the latter.
The sad reality is they had a unique opportunity to bring modernity and civilisation to Afghanistan and they fecked it up. As a Pakistani I don't care for the current Afghan govt, but it's a tragedy for the people. Opportunity lost and who knows what turd sandwiches the Taliban will force upon them.
But how would a Taliban governed Afghanistan work in the global economy? Basically cut off like North Korea, or fully integrated?
Are you really so eager to trash the US that you’re excited about defending The Taliban?
What? Truth hurts? Everything I posted is printed in Western media and most of it stated by US officials.
I never said otherwise.
The Taliban are mountainous, agricultural, decentralised folk. They have some educated people within them who will have ties to a world stage but for the most part I doubt these things would register on their radar (ie being part of a global economy). These guys are now the biggest opium traders on the planet last time I checked, and they’re making hefty amounts of cash, all domestically. This coupled with taxes and extortions or what have you and id suspect there’s not much need for them to be part of a global economy or vice versa.
What? Where am I defending the Taliban? What a weird nonsense post.
Oh, apologies. I thought Talib meant someone representing the Taliban.
On a news article tonight there was a difference in what the peace negotiator was saying a d what a local commander was saying. The former was saying education is important and women are important, the latter was saying girls could be educated, in a girls school, by women only until age 12. Everything will be done by shariah law
Its near impossible to get anything done with the level of corruption there. I routinely dealt with several Afghan governors and spent most of my attempting to figure out how to work with them on legitimate investment in their respective provinces, despite knowing they had corrupt tendencies and would try to steal parts of the money. Much of Afghan society is still made of up regional patronage networks, which makes it doubly hard for national laws to be implemented.
When did the global economy not factor in black market trading?
Or are the religiously Conservative, mountainous, agricultural Taliban made invisible when their main source of income is the drugging and addiction of millions, both legally and illegally?
Sorry, you didn't answer my question, what are they going to do after they control the nation of Afghanistan?
Will they then convert other nations to the Taliban way of thinking and trade with them; or will they keep their ideology within the borders of Afghanistan and trade with capitalist, communist and any other; or will they seal the borders?
Or will they be the world's drug dealer until they get merked like all drug dealers?
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The 2.3 trillion as I understand it was money spend by the military over their budget, it’s not missing, and it was only announced on September 10th, it didn’t happen that day. Just a coincidence of course.
Among the history of pointless things, this war is probably highest up the ladder. 20 years of untold expenditure, soldiers coming home with all kinds of PTSD and it all falls apart within two weeks. How fecking spineless are the forces the coalition army trained over the past two decades that they couldn't even hold firm longer than that?
Do you think I wrote that tweet?
It's pretty obvious that the current Afghan government are corrupt and not fit to govern. This doesn't equate to the Taliban being better or a preferred option.
It's also pretty obvious (maybe not for you) that any successful government will need buy in from the average Afghan. Civilians who just want to live their life free of war, free of corruption, and free of sexual favours just to get by.
I thought Santayana 's quote was... "those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it". Whereas Churchill's quote went a bit further, beyond remembering to ... "those who do not learn from history..".etc; however thats being churlish, Santayana was first out of the blocks, so well done!
Oh.. the irony!!
Democracy works when you have the basics. Foods. Stuff. School. Then democracy and religion.
Hard to install democracry when everyone's hungry and having to offer sex as bribes
They have a base in Uzbekistan that they are negotiating with the Uzbek government to reactivate (it was used earlier in the war).
Oh yes, i remember. I was under the impression they were also refusing them access. Might be wrong.
Didn't Biden say weeks ago that no embassy evacuation like Saigon will need to happen ? Now he is sending 3K troops back to do just that. What an own goal.
Despite everyone telling him this is what would happen with such a total and sudden withdrawal, he seems to have been caught by surprise.
The first part of this post is spot on, but I think you're missing the point a bit with the spineless comment. I don't think it's a matter of cowardice in people, but a corrupt and collapsing state failing to inspire any amount of loyalty.
There was a beef between the US and the Uzbek President about 15 years ago after the US was critical of Uzbek human rights practices, all the while utilizing the Karshi-Kanabad base in Uzbekistan (known to most as “K2”). The Uzbeks responded by asking the US to leave within 6 months, which is what happened. At the time, old Soviet bases such as K2 and Manas Airbase in Kyrgyzstan were used by the US as staging points to fly massive C5 planes full of vehicles and supplies for Afghanistan into the country because the runway at Bagram couldn’t support the weight of C5s - it could only support the lighter C17s at the time, which I believe has been fixed after they upgraded the runway.
As for the present US talk with the Uzbek government, I would guess it’s more so to create a regional capability to go after the Taliban, should the humanitarian situation go south, or if they allow the country to return to being an Al-Qaeda (or ISIS) haven.
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Everyone seemed to know that the so called afghan government will fold like a cheap tent, except the intelligence agencies that advice potus.