A lot of these guys are not being paid salaries on time, they don't have proper equipment, enough ammunition, even shortages of food.
That sucks, I was under the impression that the US is paying their salaries but if the government is siphoning off that money, there's really no good motivation for the soldiers to fight.
So as always with Afghanistan, this may be way more complex than just 'of course the Taliban are back now the US has left'.CBC said:
You're right, Churchill did change it a little to make it snappier. I knew I wouldn't get away with my fake pedantry!I thought Santayana 's quote was... "those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it". Whereas Churchill's quote went a bit further, beyond remembering to ... "those who do not learn from history..".etc; however thats being churlish, Santayana was first out of the blocks, so well done!
Doesnt take much to side with the only enemy once your buddy left you to die.The CBC had an interesting piece this morning that looks at the resurgence of the Taliban from an organizational point of view, suggesting that their transformation from chaos to war machine in just two years must be due to foreign support. Here is the key bit (link):
So as always with Afghanistan, this may be way more complex than just 'of course the Taliban are back now the US has left'.
You're right, Churchill did change it a little to make it snappier. I knew I wouldn't get away with my fake pedantry!
The Taliban however horrible they are mostly their own people. Not invaders.
More likely they decided to just not carry on fighting an unwinnable war, let nature run its course and win points back home, etc. They'll be back in some fashion no doubt if it becomes a safe harbour for the ISIS lot.
I don’t entirely agree with that because if they foresaw the collapse being this swift they would have had exit plans for the staff there immediately, instead they/we are having to send troops back after extracting them to help get them out safely.
Yeh likely true, the speed of this certainly seems a surprise, but then probably also a surprise to the commanders and advisors to Biden.
Actually, from my post just above, it appears that a lot of Taliban fighters are now coming from Pakistan and maybe India. I don't know the percentage of that though, and anyway, the Taliban at its core are obviously indeed an Afghan organization that's focused on Afghanistan exclusively.
Yeah, but I think that’s where they arguably shouldn’t be surprised. I’m not enough of an expert, but Rory Stewart was saying weeks/months ago this would be the inevitable outcome and others with experience there were agreeing so it’s certainly not the case no one could have predicted this.
They've been using Pakistan as a base to wage a protracted, low-intensity insurgency for much of the past 15 or so years, with some degree of assistance from Pakistani intelligence. The plan was always to be as disruptive as possible inside Afghanistan to thwart the Government from gaining legitimacy with the public, then attempt to come back after the US inevitably left. That's what happening now.
That's their general continuity. But clearly something has changed plre foreign support per the CBC article I quoted above.
Not sure about the article 40% number, but there have been Pakistani and Punjabi Taliban groups such as Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan and members of the Haqqni network (a Taliban splinter group), as well as Tehrik i Taliban Punjab, who may be involved as well.
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See vietnam. Same thing. Maybe not with the iconic last chopper from Vietnam.
You have to differentiate between Pakistan government and ISI and their military. Probably the government has no control over them as they say.
I agree with the sentiment of your post but calling them ‘traitors’ is unnecessary, and doesn’t even apply to all the groups I mentioned.
That would have been true of the past. Not of Khan. He'll resign before being told what to do by someone else.
Let's be honest. Imran is PM simply because the Army let him be. If he does his own thing and if he becomes a problem they will simply remove him.
Surprised Mazar has fallen so quickly. I wonder what Dostum and Atta defected since their troops were the ones who were supposed to defend the city after the Afghan Army decided not to fight.
Dostum and Atta and Ismail Khan etc have had their power eroded and disintegrated by central government with the approval of the Americans. You can't be marginalized for 2 decades then expect to mobilize in a week once the clowns decide to arm you. Can you even imagine the Taliban holding fecking Kunduz for more than like a week??? Ismail Khan surrendering???
That place has been a mess and will be in a mess because the Americans (at least at the top level) do not seem to understand the ground reality. And as you said the place is up to its forehead in corruption. Corruption alone is not the problem but no leadership either. The Taliban could be beaten. Just like the LTTE was beaten in Sri Lanka. All they need was good leadership at the national level and leadership of the national military. The current regime antagonized Pakistan who has a tremendous land border with them and went India's way. It is bound to get a reaction from Pakistan. The Taliban alone against the whole World is not going to survive. Give them a better country so they would not accept the Taliban.
I was surprised to know that Dostum is still alive? You are absolutely spot on.
Bolded is somewhat or very true. Or was in 2020. I disagree with the analysis that ' All they need was good leadership at the national level and leadership of the national military. ' though. It strongly disregards cultural and tribal affiliations and the need for some kind of autonomy from Central Government for many provinces. American strategic analysis has seemingly been based on trumps colouring book that says 'WE GET OUT, WE WIN VOTES.' Corruption was a huge problem in many regions, but not all, until central government took over.
I am actually agreeing with you on the national government. They messed it up. I am not saying it has be all controlled by Kabul. But it is the lack of leadership at National level that is very lacking. A good national leader would understand the situation as you have mentioned about the autonomy and the cultural and tribal affiliations.
I'd say its a lack of good national leaders as well as at the provincial level. There's also a persistent mistrust across ethnicities of leaders from other ethnicities. Example, many Pashtuns didn't like Abdullah Abdullah because of his affiliation with Mas'oud, despite the fact that Abdullah is technically half Pashtun. Likewise Tajiks didn't care much for Pashtun leaders, to where ultimately, ethnic and tribal interests frequently took precedence over national interests. Its nearly impossible to run a successful country under such circumstances.
Not a chance. He's there because he won an election. He had the support of the masses. Visit Pakistan sometime and ask the people on the street.
I have many times. In fact I was there two days after the coup of Musharraf too. I do agree that he is not corrupt like previous PMs. But if he creates any trouble for the army they will remove him.
Tweets like that are so deceitful. If you want to be critical of his handling then it's the fact he seemingly underestimated badly the Taliban's capability and now with them running rampant he has to send in more troops to evacuate his own countrymen and also as many Afghan refugees as possible. Many who would be slaughtered if left to fend for themselves. That tweet deliberately excludes that information or any actual link to create a false narrative.
Do you have a link?
Not sure if this is the article referred to, but he had a recent article about the collapse:
I mean from the eye of the taliban it wont make a different
Definitely agree with you there. While Karzai was 'okay' for a time, it's important to note that he was essentially the bitch of warlords like Khan who (as well as far more conservative than he was pre 2001) was essentially running a fiefdom and brutalizing his own citizens and political activists whilst enacting 'taliban like' policies and scaring the shit out of everybody. So the central government (or the USA, or both) decided to decimate these fiefdoms without either trying to properly discern between them or attempting to usurp warlords with more progressive regional 'leaders.' Because without a viable alternative, public support will always maintain high for such people.
If Biden or anyone cared enough about Afghans and their plight we would be have been granting them asylum years ago. Instead of this pathetic performative gesture of ‘saving refugees’ at the final hour.
