Brentford's data-driven "Moneyball" success

[Samid]

Been hearing about the Brentford model for a few years now. Whilst I found their approach to football interesting, I thought the demands of the Premier League would chew them up and spit them back to the Championship within 1-2 years.

I now think they'll remain in the league for many years to come, simply because they pound for pound probably are the smartest team in the league. Unless more "Brentfords" get promoted there will always be a few clubs in the division that are operated worse than them.

How far can this approach take them? Can they Moneyball their way into Europe?

Is there anything the bigger clubs can learn from the Brentford model? Why aren't more smaller teams following the Brentford model?

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How Brentford Used 'Moneyball' to Return to the Premier League
https://www.one37pm.com/sports/brentford-moneyball-premier-league-return

 

[ArmchairCritic]

Just Big Sam’s Bolton with an analytics twist.

 

[phelans shorts]

Just Big Sam’s Bolton with an analytics twist.

That’s not fair.

Big Sam was incredibly innovative with his use of data.

 

[ArmchairCritic]

That’s not fair.

Big Sam was incredibly innovative with his use of data.

He was, different data now of course.

 

[Redfrog]

Great read, thanks. I love the moneyball movie and I am interested in this system. It maybe doesn’t work like that for the biggest clubs but it should be used to spot the young talents at the very least. And now football being much more about workrate, pressing and system, money ball can be effective at the top.

 

[Samid]

Great read, thanks. I love the moneyball movie and I am interested in this system. It maybe doesn’t work like that for the biggest clubs but it should be used to spot the young talents at the very least. And now football being much more about workrate, pressing and system, money ball can be effective at the top.

In 2020 we signed Amad, Pellistri, Alvaro Fernandez and Garnacho. I'd really love to know if there was some data-driven method behind those signings or just random stabs in the dark.

Making use of data in terms of player/staff recruitment is simply a necessity these days.

Unfortunately the club leaked that they scouted 804 right backs before they signed AWB, which probably indicates that the recruitment strategy hasn't been the greatest.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

Makes sense, essentially finding what attributes translate and finding players with those attributes that are “undervalued”.

 

[el diablorojo]

It's not Moneyball - Matthew Benham ©

Yep just Big Sam hoof ball merchants

 

[mu4c_20le]

We did find Caicedo before anyone else, just couldn't be arsed to figure out how to make the deal.

 

[Skills]

That only works while everyone else is not doing it. That's there issue - teams will and are catching up. If they can stay ahead of the game that's great for them - but with more resources and money, the bigger clubs will eventually hire the best talent in the field and also have the luxury of rolling the dice more often (i.e. buying more players).

 

[Vidyoyo]

I know you've posted the videos and the twitters but is there an actual website to read about data in football?

Maybe something similar to https://www.fangraphs.com/ given you've mentioned moneyball/baseball?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I refuse to believe that Brentford is somehow unique in using data like xG to inform their decisions in the transfer market.

 

[Skills]

"Scouts used to be essentially the backbone of a team's transfer program. If you have scouts who can spot Kante and Mahrez in Ligue 2, then you're set for success. If your scouts produce a club record fee for a striker who has 0 GA over 20+ games, you're probably heading for relegation. This is how it's always been, but now scouts are starting to look at more than just the players themselves: they're looking at their statistics."

This is where as club we've completely failed while everyones gone the other way. We still run the club on the managers whim. while everywhere else they've stripped power away from the clubs head coach (left him totally in charge of a clubs short term goals) and empowered their scout/analytics system through a DOF.

 

[Samid]

We did find Caicedo before anyone else, just couldn't be arsed to figure out how to make the deal.

We found Haaland before he had even played in the Norwegian top division.

We found Enzo Fernandez earlier than most too.

Scouts seems to know what they're doing but the ones higher up aren't following suit. Which essentially render the scouts useless.

 

[Tom Van Persie]

In 2020 we signed Amad, Pellistri, Alvaro Fernandez and Garnacho. I'd really love to know if there was some data-driven method behind those signings or just random stabs in the dark.

Making use of data in terms of player/staff recruitment is simply a necessity these days.

Unfortunately the club leaked that they scouted 804 right backs before they signed AWB, which probably indicates that the recruitment strategy hasn't been the greatest.

It was a firm hired by Woodward.

 

[NewGlory]

I don't know about Brentford but
1. Konate was dreadful. What a crap signing
2. Salah and VVD have been 1/4, at most, of the players that they were at their best
3. Pool's midfield is shit
4. Entire squad is one exercise in inconsistency.

It will be so disappointing if we don't make top 4 when Liverpool and Chelsea are both having shit season. At the very least we need a striker replacement for Ronaldo. Come on, Glazers, you arseholes!

 

[Samid]

I know you've posted the videos and the twitters but is there an actual website to read about data in football?

Maybe something similar to https://www.fangraphs.com/ given you've mentioned moneyball/baseball?

https://www.whoscored.com/Articles

They post an interesting article once in a while.

 

[Zen86]

It’s hardly a technique unique to them or particularly revolutionary, and they’re certainly not the first side to punch above their weight for a couple of seasons in the PL either.

 

[Skills]

In 2020 we signed Amad, Pellistri, Alvaro Fernandez and Garnacho. I'd really love to know if there was some data-driven method behind those signings or just random stabs in the dark.

Data or not, but they were all genuine club signings. They had no use for the clubs first team manager, were all unknowns so are almost 100% likely to be have identified through the scouting system. If we empower the scouts, I think we'd definitely get more value for money.

Ironically enough, we apparently have sacked a scout this season for not rating FDJ. Whether or not that scout is right or wrong, that to me is not a great sign and is how you end up with a bunch of yes men. FDJ has hardly been pulling up trees for the Netherlands or Barcelona.

 

[DWelbz19]

Ironically enough, we apparently have sacked a scout this season for not rating FDJ. Whether or not that scout is right or wrong, that to me is not a great sign and is how you end up with a bunch of yes men. FDJ has hardly been pulling up trees for the Netherlands or Barcelona.

What’s this? I highly doubt a scout was sacked solely for this reason.

 

[Vidyoyo]

https://www.whoscored.com/Articles

They post an interesting article once in a while.

TY!

 

[el diablorojo]

I refuse to believe that Brentford is somehow unique in using data like xG to inform their decisions in the transfer market.

The difference is how the data is interpreted and the data we have access to that's the unique part I would say.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The difference is how the data is interpreted and the data we have access to that's the unique part I would say.

More likely none of it is unique. Unusual, maybe, for a lower division team. But not unique. And I’m sure all the biggest clubs have been doing the same thing for years.

 

[Skills]

What’s this? I highly doubt a scout was sacked solely for this reason.

I'm trying to find the tweet which said it - it was at the end of the transfer window.

 

[phelans shorts]

The difference is how the data is interpreted and the data we have access to that's the unique part I would say.

The raw data itself will be the same as everyone else at this level has, the difference as you say is interpretation. Also luck, never downplay how important luck is in these kinds of things.

 

[Skills]

A key part of this approach is to sign a high volume of players. Brentford this summer signed 20 players - last season they signed 16 players.

 

[Champ]

More likely none of it is unique. Unusual, maybe, for a lower division team. But not unique. And I’m sure all the biggest clubs have been doing the same thing for years.

Indeed

Liverpool have been doing it for years, City likewise, United are now.

Southampton were also very forward thinking in this department, to the point where they had analytics on potential future managers.

Certainly not unique to Brentford, it's just that Frank is a very astute manager, I'd wager that take him out of the equation and they would be struggling near the bottom.

 

[el diablorojo]

More likely none of it is unique. Unusual, maybe, for a lower division team. But not unique. And I’m sure all the biggest clubs have been doing the same thing for years.

You're wrong but it's ok.

 

[Spiersey]

I refuse to believe that Brentford is somehow unique in using data like xG to inform their decisions in the transfer market.

They aren't, however Brighton and Brentford are both the best at it due to both their owners being Professional Gamblers. Bloom and Benham basically devised ridiculously good algorithms for betting and finding value, they've spent millions and millions perfecting and upgrading these over 15/20 years. They were years ahead of their time and that's the real advantage. They use the data from their betting algorithms etc to scout players. They basically have an operation with hundreds of people watching games, recording whatever they want to be recorded. Their budget for this is significantly larger than what clubs will pay towards data analysis. Most clubs are signed up for Instat or Wyscout and will use this as their source for data, whilst Brighton/Brentford have access to a much higher level of analysis.

Their operations for Starlizard and Smartodds are massive. It's also incredibly secrative, no-one really knows what goes on as virtually no-one has access to the full picture. If you get a job there, then you only have access to your part of the process to avoid people trying to steal data/knowledge etc.

 

[Smores]

I refuse to believe that Brentford is somehow unique in using data like xG to inform their decisions in the transfer market.

Of course not and they're certainly not the first team to have such articles going back a decade even.

There's a lot of backwards reasoning for this kind of thing. The fact is smaller clubs have always been successful at picking up punts and then selling the successes on. The successes which once was attributed to scouting or a managers eye for talent now get attributed to data simply because it's in use.

 

[el diablorojo]

The raw data itself will be the same as everyone else at this level has, the difference as you say is interpretation. Also luck, never downplay how important luck is in these kinds of things.

The raw data available is the same for everyone else but not everyone will be collecting or analysing it and interpreting it in the same way and nobody has the same data set as us. I'd imagine that Brighton are also similar in that vein.

 

[Zen]

You're wrong but it's ok.

Well he's not. If you think Brentford are unique in the way look, use and well spent on data analytics, you are wrong. Absolutely every team at the top level in Europe uses this stuff, and have been for years behind it all.

Chester City hired a manager with zero playing experience but a massive insight in data in the summer to give you an idea of how low it's all dropping now, and after a slow start, it's coming good for them.

Where Brentford are unique, at least to a degree, is that everyone is in sync with the process. It's harder for the bigger clubs to be like this because the demands are totally different. Boehly and Potter for instance aren't in sync, despite a belief they are, but it'll lead to the same cycle Chelsea are accustomed to anyway.

 

[Spiersey]

The raw data itself will be the same as everyone else at this level has, the difference as you say is interpretation. Also luck, never downplay how important luck is in these kinds of things.

Brentford have access to more data than every other club bar Brighton. The big benefit is the fact that they create the data themselves so they can look for specific things that the other big data companies (instat and Wyscout) don't track.

 

[marktan]

They aren't, however Brighton and Brentford are both the best at it due to both their owners being Professional Gamblers. Bloom and Benham basically devised ridiculously good algorithms for betting and finding value, they've spent millions and millions perfecting and upgrading these over 15/20 years. They were years ahead of their time and that's the real advantage. They use the data from their betting algorithms etc to scout players. They basically have an operation with hundreds of people watching games, recording whatever they want to be recorded. Their budget for this is significantly larger than what clubs will pay towards data analysis. Most clubs are signed up for Instat or Wyscout and will use this as their source for data, whilst Brighton/Brentford have access to a much higher level of analysis.

Their operations for Starlizard and Smartodds are massive. It's also incredibly secrative, no-one really knows what goes on as virtually no-one has access to the full picture. If you get a job there, then you only have access to your part of the process to avoid people trying to steal data/knowledge etc.

The interesting thing to me is how they managed to setup betting syndicates that managed to get bets through worth millions of dollars. Given than UK bookies can shut you down for doing even slightly well, surely whoever they're betting against would shut them down I would've thought.

Have you ever considered setting up a betting syndicates yourself? Buy a lower league club down the line?

To anyone interested, there's quite a few good articles online r.e Bloom and Bentham. This one was quite good from memory (no longer have an Athletic subscription) https://theathletic.com/3029279/2021/12/24/cold-war-brighton-tony-bloom-matthew-benham-brentford/

 

[Adam-Utd]

it all sounds fancy but they often win games through long balls, set pieces and generally great pressing and lots of hard work.

Maybe they manage to find cheap players that can play at a higher level this way, but I don’t think they’ve reinvented the wheel.

The likes of Watkins and Toney were certainly smart but not unthinkable signings.

 

[el diablorojo]

Well he's not. If you think Brentford are unique in the way look, use and well spent on data analytics, you are wrong. Absolutely every team at the top level in Europe uses this stuff, and have been for years behind it all.

Chester City hired a manager with zero playing experience but a massive insight in data in the summer to give you an idea of how low it's all dropping now, and after a slow start, it's coming good for them.

Where Brentford are unique, at least to a degree, is that everyone is in sync with the process. It's harder for the bigger clubs to be like this because the demands are totally different. Boehly and Potter for instance aren't in sync, despite a belief they are, but it'll lead to the same cycle Chelsea are accustomed to anyway.

Nobody has the same data set as us so yes it is unique (fact) how it is interpreted is also unique I would say but maybe that's more up for debate. Of course all teams are using data to a certain degree but they all won't be looking at the same thing. If we were using some data analytics company to source and interpret data for this, like many clubs do, I would agree it's not very unique but that is not the case. It's not moneyball either that's just lazy journalism and an easy term to throw around when talking about the approach.

 

[el diablorojo]

Brentford have access to more data than every other club bar Brighton. The big benefit is the fact that they create the data themselves so they can look for specific things that the other big data companies (instat and Wyscout) don't track.

You know your stuff clearly - not many people get it, well done sir!

 

[JB7]

Well he's not. If you think Brentford are unique in the way look, use and well spent on data analytics, you are wrong. Absolutely every team at the top level in Europe uses this stuff, and have been for years behind it all.

Chester City hired a manager with zero playing experience but a massive insight in data in the summer to give you an idea of how low it's all dropping now, and after a slow start, it's coming good for them.

Where Brentford are unique, at least to a degree, is that everyone is in sync with the process. It's harder for the bigger clubs to be like this because the demands are totally different. Boehly and Potter for instance aren't in sync, despite a belief they are, but it'll lead to the same cycle Chelsea are accustomed to anyway.

Chester also gave that manager a top 4 budget in the division and are currently 4th so let's not pretend them having a decent season is all because of some new data driven approach. They have always spent well by Conf North standards so I'm not saying being more analytical hasn't helped them, but I'd suggest appointing a manager that actually wants to coach the players at his disposal into a system rather than replace them every 5 minutes has probably been a bigger help.

 

[RedDevilCanuck]

The Oakland A's originated money ball. And guess what - they won NOTHING.

Yes they did well with a small budget and a data driven approach. But even baseball has intangible aspects and also defense is very hard to measure accurately.

They aren't even the most successful small market team - marlins have 2 championships and the Ray's have a few division titles.

Money ball will never work in the Premier league. Quality always shines through. Even the liecester title they had Quality all over the pitch.

 

[Adnan]

What’s this? I highly doubt a scout was sacked solely for this reason.

Yep, I haven't heard of any scout getting sacked due to not wanting Frenkie de Jong.