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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
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RedChip

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Ultimate sufferers are the consumers.
My point is that I disagree that raising prices will be an easy or effective way to circumvent this problem. because a price rise will hit sales of most of the cars BMW sell except the really pricy ones; the typical buyer cannot easily absorb a rise.

And, yes, this will be a problem for most of the sector. Car sales are already in recession; they can ill-afford even a marginal effect from price rises.
 

Mr Pigeon

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They can and they are. Tell me how you or anyone without a majority is going to stop them again? Also take a look at how they EU have changed their stance too. This was inevitable. The only chance of an amicable solution was if everybody got behind democracy and put a united stance together after the vote. Now trust has broken down between all sides. I'm not even sure how anyone thinks things have changed that much the Tories have said for years that no deal is better than a bad deal so they have always refused to remove it. Boris said he would not align before the GE. The Eu want something completely unnecessary as a protectionist move, we want to more towards a more free market approach

Things will get worse before they get better unless the EU agree to the FTA agreement Barnier said we could have when discussions first began. I'm not sure they will now as they know the UK will make a success of that scenario leaving the whole project in jeopardy. The problem for the EU is the UK can make some big deals with the US, India, China and Australia and it will still prove to have made a success while EU exporters will be replaced as each deal is agreed.
Ah, wishful thinking. Keep it up.

I'm guessing the bad weather and sub par Cadbury's cream eggs will be a thing of the past once we get away from those Europeans as well huh.

I can't stand beside a majority if they're diving off a cliff just for the sake of "solidarity" just because Boris promises them that there will be a big bouncy castle made out of marshmallows at the bottom to soften the landing.
 

DFreshKing

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Ah, wishful thinking. Keep it up.

I'm guessing the bad weather and sub par Cadbury's cream eggs will be a thing of the past once we get away from those Europeans as well huh.
Well I've got it right up to now. What did you predict lib dems victory in the election or Corbyn? :lol:

I hardly see it as wishful thinking when US trade delegation are meeting right now.... It's literally all been spelt out but yeah, denial its going around the EU so of course it would infect some people here.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Well I've got it right up to now. What did you predict lib dems victory in the election or Corbyn? :lol:

I hardly see it as wishful thinking when US trade delegation are meeting right now.... It's literally all been spelt out but yeah, denial its going around the EU so of course it would infect some people here.
Ah right, because the Americans are meeting with us it means that we've already arranged successful deals with not only them but China, India, Australia, the moon, Genghis Khan and the one armed man from The Fugitive. Righto chiefo, gotcha.

Saying that because you predicted a Tory win in the election means you're in a strong position to predict what the UK will look like in the generations to come is the most childish thing I've seen in a long time, and I work with actual children.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Personally I am well aware there will be endless reprecussions from Brexit however I can't see them having much effect on huge corporates like BMW with the structures they have in place globally. For them I do see it as simple as slap the tariffs on top and away we go. The supply chain may face delays but ultimately they'll just increase the costs and its business as usual. People won't stop buying premium cars because they're a bit more expensive.
Someone paying £80k or £90k for a high range car instead of £70/75k will probably not affect sales too much.
Tariffs will be one factor, another factor will be currency devaluation if there is a hard border, Boris opens his mouth suggesting as such and the pounds drops 3 cents. Thus devaluation will probably at least as much be as much as the tariffs.
But those two added together is still not the whole story.

BMW produce the Mini in the UK and a Mini gearbox for example goes in and out of the country four or five times before it is fitted hence delays which also delays other areas of manufacture , then the extra staff to deal with the paperwork or arranging all the technical documentation, customs declarations, tax declarations and extra finance.

Question is at what point do BMW say enough is enough, it's no longer viable to produce them in the UK. If most of the Minis produced are sold in the UK then it may possibly be viable.
Like the Nissan Qashqai in Sunderland which I believe 90% of the sales are abroad from the UK, do Nissan really want all this hassle?

High value goods and large companies will be less affected, it's the low value goods and smaller companies where the problems will be. Likewise the rich won't worry but the poor will. And the rich convinced the poor to vote for it.
 

DFreshKing

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Ah right, because the Americans are meeting with us it means that we've already arranged successful deals with not only them but China, India, Australia, the moon, Genghis Khan and the one armed man from The Fugitive. Righto chiefo, gotcha.

Saying that because you predicted a Tory win in the election means you're in a strong position to predict what the UK will look like in the generations to come is the most childish thing I've seen in a long time, and I work with actual children.
Good for you carry on.
 

nickm

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It's what happens when you have a strong majority you get to make the rules. Funny though a bet this guy didn't say the same when Labour ripped upped their manifesto pledges last time around. I bet he also agreed with the mantra politicians are elected to make the decisions and should not be beholden to the referendum when it suited either. Funny how we bend our own values to get what we want be can't abide by 'other' people doing it.
Do you seriously think this is a rational way to negotiate with an economic superpower?
 

DFreshKing

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Do you seriously think this is a rational way to negotiate with an economic superpower?
*Equal Sovereign footing. Are you suggesting we just accept whatever they want? We can and will replace any industry they charge tariffs on that we can source from other economic blocks. We also immediately benefit from not having to charge tariffs on produce from Africa, China, the USA that the EU have tariffs on to protect their industry. The real question is whether you believe in a tariff led protectionist system which apparently the EU really dislike when the USA threaten but are quite fond of putting barriers on African products, or Chinese goods etc.. (I don't need to explain this)

My firm believe is a free market tariff free system will help the whole global economy and when other countries see the benefit they will look closer at it. The EU holds an ever decreasing portion of world GDP even before our departure, looking towards Africa, China, India etc is a very smart move for the future, removing tariffs with them that the EU would never dream of will benefit UK consumers and developing countries economies at the same time further reducing the EU's economic power.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Another week goes past in Brexit paradise and we're still waiting for reasons why people voted Brexit that wasn't anything to do with lies, drivel or foreigners.

No sign of what the benefits will be. Gove's trying to employ a minimum of 50,000 officers to cope with January 2021, still to be trained, still to upgrade the ports. Farmers losing all subsidies by 2027.
And once again everyone's forgotten about the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

Next week's challenge. Do brexiters know what a Canada style deal is, do they understand WTO rules (including state aid rules) and would they pass the test to become a British citizen?
 

DFreshKing

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Another week goes past in Brexit paradise and we're still waiting for reasons why people voted Brexit that wasn't anything to do with lies, drivel or foreigners.

No sign of what the benefits will be. Gove's trying to employ a minimum of 50,000 officers to cope with January 2021, still to be trained, still to upgrade the ports. Farmers losing all subsidies by 2027.
And once again everyone's forgotten about the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

Next week's challenge. Do brexiters know what a Canada style deal is, do they understand WTO rules (including state aid rules) and would they pass the test to become a British citizen?
How's France doing?
 

Paul the Wolf

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How's France doing?

Fine thanks, so was the UK until the referendum, by the way you do realise that it's not the EU that charges tariffs on EU goods, it will be the UK -also that what you do with one nation under WTO regulations you have to do with all nations unless you have a FTA. Also that there is a FTA ready to be signed with ECOWAS (West African nations) with the EU. Its froze when Nigeria didn't sign it because of the severe problems they had in 2015/16 - took many years and still not signed off. Just as long as you know what you're doing.
 

Full bodied red

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Next week's challenge. Do brexiters know what a Canada style deal is, do they understand WTO rules (including state aid rules) and would they pass the test to become a British citizen?

C'mon.....Any mention of illegal State Aid and EU in the same sentence is as pointless as having Man City and Respecting FFP in the same sentence.

Unless, that is, you happen to be German or French or Italian or Irish or Dutch or Luxemburgish or Spanish....Even Romanian....

The EU turning a blind eye to illegal State Aid by most of its members is as popular as the national sport in Brussels.

The EU itself, on the other hand, still dishes out € trillions instead to its favourite members but which, apparently, doesn't count as State Aid.

See the paradox ?
 

DFreshKing

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Fine thanks, so was the UK until the referendum, by the way you do realise that it's not the EU that charges tariffs on EU goods, it will be the UK -also that what you do with one nation under WTO regulations you have to do with all nations unless you have a FTA. Also that there is a FTA ready to be signed with ECOWAS (West African nations) with the EU. Its froze when Nigeria didn't sign it because of the severe problems they had in 2015/16 - took many years and still not signed off. Just as long as you know what you're doing.
Funny, a lot of people in France don't seem to think it's fine but as long as you are happy. Time will tell but I think we are making a very good decision, maybe France will follow in the future.
 

DFreshKing

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C'mon.....Any mention of illegal State Aid and EU in the same sentence is as pointless as having Man City and Respecting FFP in the same sentence.

Unless, that is, you happen to be German or French or Italian or Irish or Dutch or Luxemburgish or Spanish....Even Romanian....

The EU turning a blind eye to illegal State Aid by most of its members is as popular as the national sport in Brussels.

The EU itself, on the other hand, still dishes out € trillions instead to its favourite members but which, apparently, doesn't count as State Aid.

See the paradox ?
Exactly - which countries in the EU have been charged under these rules the most? I'll give you a clue it isn't the UK falling foul....
 

Full bodied red

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Funny, a lot of people in France don't seem to think it's fine but as long as you are happy. Time will tell but I think we are making a very good decision, maybe France will follow in the future.

Highly unlikely.

Because we'll never be allowed to have a leave / remain vote as they did in the UK.

Just a reminder how anything related to EU democracy works here, the last time we had a vote about anything to do with the EU was 2005 and the pro-EU Government simply ignored the result.

Unlike Ireland, they didn't even bother to make us have a second vote - they just carried on as if the referendum, had never taken place - and which is what set me off on my own anti-EU crusade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_French_European_Constitution_referendum

Our only hope is for the EU to fall apart and return to a simple EEC Free Trade Area.
 

Paul the Wolf

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C'mon.....Any mention of illegal State Aid and EU in the same sentence is as pointless as having Man City and Respecting FFP in the same sentence.

Unless, that is, you happen to be German or French or Italian or Irish or Dutch or Luxemburgish or Spanish....Even Romanian....

The EU turning a blind eye to illegal State Aid by most of its members is as popular as the national sport in Brussels.

The EU itself, on the other hand, still dishes out € trillions instead to its favourite members but which, apparently, doesn't count as State Aid.

See the paradox ?
I was talking about WTO state aid rules, they also have rules, hope the UK don't mind foreigners in the WTO telling them what they can and cannot do.
State aid is possible in the EU too.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Funny, a lot of people in France don't seem to think it's fine but as long as you are happy. Time will tell but I think we are making a very good decision, maybe France will follow in the future.
Have they been telling you that, I'd hazard a guess that the UK are back in the EU before France would ever leave.
Let me know how things are going this time next year.

Just a suggestion but hadn't the UK better start doing something concrete like preparations for the future instead of hoping that another country leaves the EU or that they have more xenophobes than the UK. Only ten months left and they haven't done much.
 
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Full bodied red

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Have they been telling you that, I'd hazard a guess that the UK are back in the EU before France would ever leave.
Let me know how things are going this time next year.

Just a suggestion but hadn't the UK better start doing something concrete like preparations for the future instead of hoping that another country leaves the EU or that they have more xenophobes than the UK. Only ten months left and they haven't done much.

You're better than that....
 

Full bodied red

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But it's the standard reply. Ah but France will leave the EU or France have racists or xenophobes. Difference is the UK is the only country who have voted to leave and the UK will probably be the best advert for staying in the EU.

But you're better than the old racists and xenophobes chuckaway line....I mean, it's not as though the EU itself and most of its members doesn't do its best to stop those bloody foreigners from coming in - to the tune of €6 billion.

https://www.dw.com/en/greek-police-fire-tear-gas-at-migrants-on-turkish-border/a-52582096

https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-eu-turkey-refugee-deal-collapse/a-52579348

And....Let's not forget....The UK is the only member which has been allowed to vote whether to leave the EU, so maybe reword that bit, a bit.

You're possibly / maybe correct that short term the UK will struggle to maintain it's current levels of economic activity. But then again, so will the EU if there is no FTA with the UK. The trade goes both ways with a huge surplus in favour of the EU.

Other than that....Life good, still ? We've got a definite touch of miserable weather blues and were planning on going to visit friends in Vicenza this coming week and going up to the Tyrol together for a break. Fat chance now....
 

ManUArfa

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Correct me if I'm wrong but a British Citizen is somebody who was born and has chosen to remain British, or somebody who has become British.

Why should EU nationals who live in the UK be allowed to vote in the UK Parliamentary elections when UK nationals who live in the EU can't vote in the EU?

Why do remainers always try to turn Brexit in to a racist arguement?
 

Paul the Wolf

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But you're better than the old racists and xenophobes chuckaway line....I mean, it's not as though the EU itself and most of its members doesn't do its best to stop those bloody foreigners from coming in - to the tune of €6 billion.

https://www.dw.com/en/greek-police-fire-tear-gas-at-migrants-on-turkish-border/a-52582096

https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-eu-turkey-refugee-deal-collapse/a-52579348

And....Let's not forget....The UK is the only member which has been allowed to vote whether to leave the EU, so maybe reword that bit, a bit.

You're possibly / maybe correct that short term the UK will struggle to maintain it's current levels of economic activity. But then again, so will the EU if there is no FTA with the UK. The trade goes both ways with a huge surplus in favour of the EU.

Other than that....Life good, still ? We've got a definite touch of miserable weather blues and were planning on going to visit friends in Vicenza this coming week and going up to the Tyrol together for a break. Fat chance now....
But the UK vote to leave was supposed to be about legal immigrants not illegal immigrants. Maybe France should stop detaining the refugees in Calais trying to cross the channel and let them move freely into the UK. It's not the same thing.

Of course the EU would prefer an FTA with the UK but that seems highly unlikely to be anything but a basic deal if anything at all. What still seems to have escaped Brexiters is that the EU still have all the deals they had apart from with the UK, - the UK have torn up all their deals - also the EU is made of 27 other countries with no customs border between them and I have insisted since the beginning - this is the most important aspect of all.

Say the EU was as you say a pure trading bloc (which it never was) but say it was - they would still have to have EU standards, ECJ judgement, in fact as most of the regulations they say they don't want to follow are to do with trade, doesn't really make sense.

Seriously, whether one thinks it is wrong or right to leave the EU or for whatever reason they voted to leave I personally cannot see how the UK operates on its own even if they had a team of competent ministers and experts in their field- to make matters worse, the team they have in place should petrify everyone even the most ardent Brexiter.

Wet and windy here but hasn't been that cold and had quite a few sunny days. Will soon be spring.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Correct me if I'm wrong but a British Citizen is somebody who was born and has chosen to remain British, or somebody who has become British.

Why should EU nationals who live in the UK be allowed to vote in the UK Parliamentary elections when UK nationals who live in the EU can't vote in the EU?

Why do remainers always try to turn Brexit in to a racist arguement?
Nobody has said that a British citizen isn't someone who was born there or who has acquired citizenship. Nobody has said that EU nationals could vote in the referendum without reciprocal arrangements in EU countries.

The discussion was about Indian/Pakistani origin British citizens who voted to leave because .... not clear.... seemingly somebody gave some EU citizens jobs and UK citizens ahead of Pakistani/Indians who they knew were inferior in and couldn't speak proper English.

I must admit I've never worked in any field where you give a job to an inferior candidate especially when the pay is the same for everyone.
 

Paul the Wolf

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He's clearly not. I'll leave him to his own hate.
Who is it that I'm supposed to hate.

In the meantime we're still waiting for a reason why Brexit was voted for that isn't drivel nor connected to foreigners.

More importantly how will the UK export to any other country without following the regulations and standards of the country they are exporting to, how will they solve the border problem with Ireland, what will they do to help farmers who they convinced to vote for them and then cancelled their subsidies.

Looks like, now that the Tories have a large majority, they have regressed four years to the "we hold all the cards, they need us more than we need them, Ireland? where's that?" nonsense.
 

Steven Seagull

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Who is it that I'm supposed to hate.

In the meantime we're still waiting for a reason why Brexit was voted for that isn't drivel nor connected to foreigners.

More importantly how will the UK export to any other country without following the regulations and standards of the country they are exporting to, how will they solve the border problem with Ireland, what will they do to help farmers who they convinced to vote for them and then cancelled their subsidies.

Looks like, now that the Tories have a large majority, they have regressed four years to the "we hold all the cards, they need us more than we need them, Ireland? where's that?" nonsense.
every time you’re given reasons you dismiss them and say they’ve all been debunked. Why would anybody bother?
 

Paul the Wolf

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every time you’re given reasons you dismiss them and say they’ve all been debunked. Why would anybody bother?
Every time they are given they are shown to be what they are, not the same thing.

But it's happened now so the vision for the future is more important. How the UK get themselves out of the problems Boris has imposed on them. So far we have, the EU can't tell us what to do and they need us more than we need them. Next January isn't far away.
 

Maticmaker

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Every time they are given they are shown to be what they are, not the same thing.

But it's happened now so the vision for the future is more important. How the UK get themselves out of the problems Boris has imposed on them. So far we have, the EU can't tell us what to do and they need us more than we need them. Next January isn't far away.
'Levelling up' seems to be the new mantra for a post Brexit Britain. One of the problems with the UK being in the EU is that for mainland Britain, even more business and commerce got dragged down to the South East, especially with the Channel Tunnel making it even easier to reach our neighbours and as a result the rest of the mainland with the exception of the larger cities became almost as a wasteland. Boris as he has already admitted in the GE he has only borrowed votes from the 'red wall', if he does not deliver then he's toast.

None of this has much to do with being in or out of the EU, but honouring the referendum result gave Boris and the Tories a free pass,...until it doesn't!
 

DFreshKing

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Who is it that I'm supposed to hate.

In the meantime we're still waiting for a reason why Brexit was voted for that isn't drivel nor connected to foreigners.

More importantly how will the UK export to any other country without following the regulations and standards of the country they are exporting to, how will they solve the border problem with Ireland, what will they do to help farmers who they convinced to vote for them and then cancelled their subsidies.

Looks like, now that the Tories have a large majority, they have regressed four years to the "we hold all the cards, they need us more than we need them, Ireland? where's that?" nonsense.
No one owes you any explanation on how or why that voted for anything. You need to get over yourself.

How will the UK export to other countries hmm, if only there was worldwide structures and bodies to facilitate this eh?

What you see as regression is and was the defacto position from day one. It is in the EU statute (article 50) that we are still following and adhering, this isn't a UK rule or law. May did (wrongly in my view) acquiesce on a lot of what actual leavers campaigned and voted for but like Turkeys voting for Christmas remainer's were not happy, and voted any compromise down.

We will get a FTA trade deal which Barnier originally wanted or we will trade on WTO while moving any imports or exports that have onerous tariffs to new markets as we open worldwide FTA's. It is an interesting test of Free markets versus protectionism, something I am really looking forward to seeing play out.
 

Paul the Wolf

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No one owes you any explanation on how or why that voted for anything. You need to get over yourself.

How will the UK export to other countries hmm, if only there was worldwide structures and bodies to facilitate this eh?

What you see as regression is and was the defacto position from day one. It is in the EU statute (article 50) that we are still following and adhering, this isn't a UK rule or law. May did (wrongly in my view) acquiesce on a lot of what actual leavers campaigned and voted for but like Turkeys voting for Christmas remainer's were not happy, and voted any compromise down.

We will get a FTA trade deal which Barnier originally wanted or we will trade on WTO while moving any imports or exports that have onerous tariffs to new markets as we open worldwide FTA's. It is an interesting test of Free markets versus protectionism, something I am really looking forward to seeing play out.
You don't owe me any explanation, just thought that someone would come up with a credible one.

You seemed to have forgotten that Johnson signed the WA and PD but now rolling back on it which means that the last four years have been a complete waste of time and gives a hint to the rest of the world how trustworthy the UK has become.
But you're either in or out not some halfway house , you're out, now deal with reality .

You still don't seemed to have grasped that the UK have to comply with the import regulations and standards of the countries the UK would export to, whether that's the EU, the USA, China, Ghana, Australia or wherever. You can't tell them all that the UK are independent and can do what they like. Tariffs are imposed by the importing country not the exporting country which will normally be passed onto the consumer.

The type of deal you get with the EU or any other country or blocs of countries will depend on the standards the UK have. If the UK stay closely aligned to the EU then there will be a deal if they don't there won't be, it is simple as that, it's not Barnier who decides or some mysterious unknown bureaucrat , it's the 27 EU states who decide what he negotiates.

As there are only ten months left, shouldn't the UK decide whether they want- free and open trade with everybody, FTAs or WTO rules and understand what each of them implies.
 

DFreshKing

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You don't owe me any explanation, just thought that someone would come up with a credible one.

You seemed to have forgotten that Johnson signed the WA and PD but now rolling back on it which means that the last four years have been a complete waste of time and gives a hint to the rest of the world how trustworthy the UK has become.
But you're either in or out not some halfway house , you're out, now deal with reality .

You still don't seemed to have grasped that the UK have to comply with the import regulations and standards of the countries the UK would export to, whether that's the EU, the USA, China, Ghana, Australia or wherever. You can't tell them all that the UK are independent and can do what they like. Tariffs are imposed by the importing country not the exporting country which will normally be passed onto the consumer.

The type of deal you get with the EU or any other country or blocs of countries will depend on the standards the UK have. If the UK stay closely aligned to the EU then there will be a deal if they don't there won't be, it is simple as that, it's not Barnier who decides or some mysterious unknown bureaucrat , it's the 27 EU states who decide what he negotiates.

As there are only ten months left, shouldn't the UK decide whether they want- free and open trade with everybody, FTAs or WTO rules and understand what each of them implies.
No, You are the one who fails to grasp how these things work. Companies exporting their product will not have any difficulties exporting to the EU or anywhere else.

Frameworks and tariffs are WTO/Government led. The EU cannot impose anything on us they do not impose on any other Country. These rules are there to facilitate trade.

I guess you will have to wait until newspapers tell you how it works but it is pretty straight forward. Read the WTO rules or wait for a FTA which for that you can look at ones like Canada has. These are the only options left and should be easy to understand.

I'm just going to leave this now as someone correctly mentioned above there is little point in this discussion with you i'm afraid.
 

Paul the Wolf

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No, You are the one who fails to grasp how these things work. Companies exporting their product will not have any difficulties exporting to the EU or anywhere else.

Frameworks and tariffs are WTO/Government led. The EU cannot impose anything on us they do not impose on any other Country. These rules are there to facilitate trade.

I guess you will have to wait until newspapers tell you how it works but it is pretty straight forward. Read the WTO rules or wait for a FTA which for that you can look at ones like Canada has. These are the only options left and should be easy to understand.

I'm just going to leave this now as someone correctly mentioned above there is little point in this discussion with you i'm afraid.
As I have spent over thirty years of my life dealing with international trade, I probably have a teeny weeny idea of how it works. But Brexiters won't listen to people who actually know what they're talking about. Wait until next year and then you will start to understand. By the way, IDS hasn't a clue what he's talking about.

Good luck, you're going to need it.
 

DFreshKing

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As I have spent over thirty years of my life dealing with international trade, I probably have a teeny weeny idea of how it works. But Brexiters won't listen to people who actually know what they're talking about. Wait until next year and then you will start to understand. By the way, IDS hasn't a clue what he's talking about.

Good luck, you're going to need it.
Well you should know better then.
Have a good day.