Classical Mechanic
Full Member
Of course, my question was how relevant a 4% drop in GDP over 15 years is to the debate though. Obviously if it were much worse then it would be, no question about that.
The wording is 1.9-5.5% lower growth than if we stayed in the EU under May’s deal or 3.5% - 9% lower with a hard Brexit. Correct me if I’m wrong but this means slower growth than if we stayed in the EU rather than overall GDP contraction from where we are now?It’s relevant because a shrinking economy over a 15 year period is a big issue. You have to remember the natural economic cycle means that a countries GDP should grow over time. A 4% shrink doesn’t sound like a lot but when you think our GDP even now is growing at say 0.5-1% a year, we are saying it’s setting us back circa 15-20% over 15 years of all things carried on as they are now. Which is a big assumption but not an outrageous one when you look at economic growth over periods exclusive of significant events such as the financial crisis.