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Chelsea easy FA cup draws
- Thread starter FootballHQ
- Start date
Lille beat PSG to the league, they're not an easy draw. Only Bayern Munich could've been harder for us.
Reposting this as it came up in another thread but fits better here:
In these nineteen seasons, United drew a higher-ranked opponent than Chelsea eleven times. Chelsea drew a higher-ranked opponent than United four times. The two teams drew an opponent from the same tier four times. The times Chelsea drew a higher-ranked opponent, it was usually still 2nd tier or lower.
In these nineteen seasons, United drew an opponent from the Premier League ten times. Chelsea drew a PL opponent once. United have drawn both Liverpool and Manchester City in that time while the one PL team that Chelsea drew was... Southampton, in a season when Southampton finished 14th in the league with a -11 GD and 9 wins out of 38.
The difference in draw luck between United and Chelsea is dramatically skewed in their favor. It's frankly obscene how much luckier they've been; or, rather, how ridiculously unlucky United have been to draw a PL opponent in more than half of these nineteen seasons. Including their two biggest rivals. It's unheard-of. It's got to be in the neighborhood of one in a thousand or something. It's so insanely improbable that it beggars belief. Meanwhile, Chelsea drawing PL opposition just once in nineteen years is highly improbable as well, though not quite the mindblowing statistical anomaly as drawing a PL team ten times out of nineteen. Skimming the data, it looks like the average is about 4-5 times out of 19.
I decided to check. Looking up the 3rd round FA Cup draws (because otherwise there's just too much data) going all the way back to the beginning of the Abramovich era (2003-04), we see the following draws, and tiers of opposition:
2021-2022
Chelsea: Chesterfield (5th tier)
United: Aston Villa (1st tier)
2020-21
Chelsea: Morecambe (4th)
United: Watford (2nd)
2019-20
Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (2nd)
United: Wolves (1st)
2018-19
Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (2nd)
United: Reading (2nd)
2017-18
Chelsea: Norwich (2nd)
United: Derby (2nd)
2016-17
Chelsea: Peterborough (3rd)
United: Reading (2nd)
2015-16
Chelsea: Scunthorpe (3rd)
United: Sheffield Utd (3rd)
2014-15
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Yeovil (3rd)
2013-14
Chelsea: Derby (2nd)
United: Swansea (1st)
2012-13
Chelsea: Southampton (1st)
United: West Ham (1st)
2011-12
Chelsea: Portsmouth (2nd)
United: Man City (1st)
2010-11
Chelsea: Ipswich (2nd)
United: Liverpool (1st)
2009-10
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Leeds (3rd)
2008-09
Chelsea: Southend Utd (3rd)
United: Southampton (2nd)
2007-08
Chelsea: QPR (2nd)
United: Villa (1st)
2006-07
Chelsea: Macclesfield (4th)
United: Villa (1st)
2005-06
Chelsea: Huddersfield (3rd)
United: Burton Albion (9th)
2004-05
Chelsea: Scunthorpe (4th)
United: Exeter (6th)
2003-04
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Villa (1st)
Chelsea: Chesterfield (5th tier)
United: Aston Villa (1st tier)
2020-21
Chelsea: Morecambe (4th)
United: Watford (2nd)
2019-20
Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (2nd)
United: Wolves (1st)
2018-19
Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (2nd)
United: Reading (2nd)
2017-18
Chelsea: Norwich (2nd)
United: Derby (2nd)
2016-17
Chelsea: Peterborough (3rd)
United: Reading (2nd)
2015-16
Chelsea: Scunthorpe (3rd)
United: Sheffield Utd (3rd)
2014-15
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Yeovil (3rd)
2013-14
Chelsea: Derby (2nd)
United: Swansea (1st)
2012-13
Chelsea: Southampton (1st)
United: West Ham (1st)
2011-12
Chelsea: Portsmouth (2nd)
United: Man City (1st)
2010-11
Chelsea: Ipswich (2nd)
United: Liverpool (1st)
2009-10
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Leeds (3rd)
2008-09
Chelsea: Southend Utd (3rd)
United: Southampton (2nd)
2007-08
Chelsea: QPR (2nd)
United: Villa (1st)
2006-07
Chelsea: Macclesfield (4th)
United: Villa (1st)
2005-06
Chelsea: Huddersfield (3rd)
United: Burton Albion (9th)
2004-05
Chelsea: Scunthorpe (4th)
United: Exeter (6th)
2003-04
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Villa (1st)
In these nineteen seasons, United drew a higher-ranked opponent than Chelsea eleven times. Chelsea drew a higher-ranked opponent than United four times. The two teams drew an opponent from the same tier four times. The times Chelsea drew a higher-ranked opponent, it was usually still 2nd tier or lower.
In these nineteen seasons, United drew an opponent from the Premier League ten times. Chelsea drew a PL opponent once. United have drawn both Liverpool and Manchester City in that time while the one PL team that Chelsea drew was... Southampton, in a season when Southampton finished 14th in the league with a -11 GD and 9 wins out of 38.
The difference in draw luck between United and Chelsea is dramatically skewed in their favor. It's frankly obscene how much luckier they've been; or, rather, how ridiculously unlucky United have been to draw a PL opponent in more than half of these nineteen seasons. Including their two biggest rivals. It's unheard-of. It's got to be in the neighborhood of one in a thousand or something. It's so insanely improbable that it beggars belief. Meanwhile, Chelsea drawing PL opposition just once in nineteen years is highly improbable as well, though not quite the mindblowing statistical anomaly as drawing a PL team ten times out of nineteen. Skimming the data, it looks like the average is about 4-5 times out of 19.
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We have lucked out big time with Lille IMO. Especially twice. I'd have much rather Lille over Ancelotti's Madrid and of course Bayern, both of whom are currently sitting comfortably on top in their leagues. Probably would have chosen them over Ajax, too, tbh, although id not say there's a huge difference
They did win Ligue 1 last year but they're 20 points behind already this year. Us, Bayern and City have the easiest draws by far
If I'm honest I don't actually mind getting teams running away with their leagues (although obviously I'd rather save those two in question for a much later date if we make it).
There's a lack of sheer competitive match sharpness when you have so much room for error domestically in my opinion. To go from being able to afford to lose a few games to suddenly be dropped into a game where one mistake can be fatal requires a massive mental switch that's hard to do at the click of a finger.
It's no coincidence that all England's finalists in this competition have had either top 4 or the title to play for going into May.
Nice work.
It reminds me of people who say luck/refereeing decisions always even out over a PL season, as if 38 is some huge sample size. People underestimate how significant variance/deviation can be over reasonably large sample sizes. Looking at just 3rd round draws, you'd need numerous decades and possibly centuries for the luck of the draw to reliably even out.
But isn't the argument of luck over a season in the 38 games that you get a certain amount of decisions in each match in favor / not in favor of you? i.e. the referee may be making 3-5 half-big decisions a match that can go each way.
That would make the sample size 114-119. 300 is probably a reliable number/sample-size for unevening luck out, but yeah, just trying to say the sample size of lucky/unlucky decisions might be more than 38?
Fair point, but its still not enough to say it evens out. Both because 100 or so decisions isn't that big a sample, and because some decisions are more important than others. A dodgy penalty when already 4-0 up against relegation fodder is less important than a 90th minute penalty at 0-0 between two title contenders, for example.
Someone did some math over on reddit.
It'd be great if a serious statistics person could chime in. It feels like one would have to see how often such a run happens in comparison to the 'statistical odds'; AKA if over hundreds or thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of simulated draws. The average is apparently 5.3 PL opponents in Round 3 over 19 seasons; in that context, one out of nineteen doesn't sound ridiculously out of whack. It means they got lucky around four times out of nineteen (right?) instead of what feels like eighteen times out of nineteen when you see that "1/19" figure.
I have maintained since I was very young that the cup draws are fixed. I am not talking about ALL the draws, just one of two ties per round, mainly to make sure there is at least one good game to show for TV.
I am also not necessarily saying it's fixed to hurt United. It's just that we are a big draw, and there are also more "narratives" to play on with Utd, with ex-players or old foes returning. Drawing United is also a massive payday for lower league clubs who might need the cash, for example, clubs like Cambridge, Burton or Exeter.
I'll give a couple of recent examples, where I think it was possible to guess the draw, and indeed, I did and many on here did. Utd vs PSG in the Champions League, to create the Messi vs Ronaldo showdown and United vs Villa in the FA Cup, so it can be marketed as Steven Gerrard's return to Old Trafford.
Again, not saying every game, just the odd one to keep the TV bigwigs happy.
Usually, I am very anti-conspiracy theory. The trouble is, FIFA and UEFA have been caught red-handed a number of times, taking bribes or siphoning cash. Half the blokes involved in allocating WCs are in jail or warned off football for life. Blatter and Platini are currently facing corruption charges. I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that one tie per draw is fixed occasionally.
I am also not necessarily saying it's fixed to hurt United. It's just that we are a big draw, and there are also more "narratives" to play on with Utd, with ex-players or old foes returning. Drawing United is also a massive payday for lower league clubs who might need the cash, for example, clubs like Cambridge, Burton or Exeter.
I'll give a couple of recent examples, where I think it was possible to guess the draw, and indeed, I did and many on here did. Utd vs PSG in the Champions League, to create the Messi vs Ronaldo showdown and United vs Villa in the FA Cup, so it can be marketed as Steven Gerrard's return to Old Trafford.
Again, not saying every game, just the odd one to keep the TV bigwigs happy.
Usually, I am very anti-conspiracy theory. The trouble is, FIFA and UEFA have been caught red-handed a number of times, taking bribes or siphoning cash. Half the blokes involved in allocating WCs are in jail or warned off football for life. Blatter and Platini are currently facing corruption charges. I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that one tie per draw is fixed occasionally.
I think this is probably the way that is happens if it happens. However, not sure about it in regards to CL and International tournaments as they're kind of fixed due to their use of seedings and groups.
For instance with the WC you have the following instilled:
Hosts drawn as Seed 1 in Group A
Best Teams Seeded as 1 or 2, which means they should get out of groups.
As Seeds are in place, teams should get through Groups and the first round after, thus getting them deep into the Tournament.
Once you get get to QF's all match-ups are essentially glamour ties.
CL
Same, minus host
Sure, there may be one or two ties per round fixed but to be honest, I think the seeding and qualification kind of makes that inherent anyway and it gives them one or two big ties in each KO round regardless.
As for the FA Cup, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some sort of hokey pokey in the 3rd & 4th rounds as it is a open draw and that allows for the first couple of rounds to be non-events.
Obviously, Utd are the biggest draw nationally so having them in big fixtures on domestic TV in January is very appealing for all concerned.
Personally, I don't think there is a fix in as to do so requires too many people to be involved (presenters, the people drawing, a number of people at the FA etc.) Which means that it only needs one person from hundreds over the years' to become disgruntled and become a whistleblower.
So, yeah, I think the big tournaments in general aren't fixed as it is inherent in the draw structure/rules. Only place it could possibly happen in the FA and EFL cup, but even then, not sure the risk is worth the reward.
Agree, 100%. Said this for a while. Anytime a ex-manager has an opportunity to go back to his old team, that's what they draw will do. It's like a soap opera script because it enables easy marketing and a story to be built in the run up to it.
The old, hot balls in the pot thing.
Sounds painful.
But then surely that involves a number of ex professionals to be involved? And Rod Stewart, considering they often drawn the balls.
They'll be happily in on it for a a few k
Plymouth at home. 
You love to see it.
See you next Jan for Chelsea v Kidderminster
I hope we dont get Middlesbrough at home, or Leeds, or Burton Albion.
We knocked Burton out in the replay you noob.
No shit einstein, should have never drawn with them in the first place.
Lost three in a row. Surely not four next year.
Why did you delete your post?
Football gods paying back to them with two shoot-out losses for their ridiculously easy cup draws over the years 
No Roman No Party
Man City Reserves v Chelsea Reserves, anything could happen.
So should we close the thread?
Until the FA Cup draw at least.
Don't worry you'll get a easy draw there, like united...
True
Bump.
Good. Deserved.
Roman's no longer got a direct debit at the FA
As it’s the season of good will, we are giving somebody else a chance at the final.
Feels like when The Undertaker lost at Wrestlemania, can’t believe what we’ve witnessed. The streak…..is over.
Home tie against the second biggest team from a small northern town.
Another words… you’ve not got that Russian bribing the FA anymore.