Could the Glazers realistically stay?

[LawCharltonBest]

(The big thread is more about the potential bidders, so I thought a separate thread discussion would be ok but delete it if it’s not wanted)

Perhaps it’s just a negotiation tactic, or perhaps they know they aren’t going to get the amount they wanted but I personally struggle with why they’d want to stay…. If they reject £5bn and stay now, is there any guarantee they’d see a bid like that again in their lifetimes?

There’s no assurance that a super league will materialise now, the stadium and facilities will fall further behind, the funds are drying up so the playing squad wouldn’t keep up, the debts would get bigger, Raine Group wouldn't waste time on them again, the current bidders wouldn’t return, they’d have a reputation as being not serious sellers. Why turn down around £5bn now and risk all the above with no guarantee of a bigger return later?

Only way they get more later is if United are winning titles. But they’re against oil money with no money. It simply isn’t going to happen

 

[Someone]

They can if they think waiting will get them more, but I think they'll eventually sell. Club is need of investment and I don't think they can afford it.

 

[VivaObertan]

If they are still here come 1st June I become a full-time home game tout.

 

[TrueRed79]

Can't see it myself. We don't fully know what Joel and Avrams intentions are here either though. They might buy the rest of the family out. I think they will sell though. The ROI here is huge and they still own an NFL team on top of that. Think they Qatari's will make it too good to refuse. Sickening if it happens but it is what it is.

 

[LawCharltonBest]

Can't see it myself. We don't fully know what Joel and Avrams intentions are here either though. They might buy the rest of the family out. I think they will sell though. The ROI here is huge and they still own an NFL team on top of that. Think they Qatari's will make it too good to refuse. Sickening if it happens but it is what it is.

The ROI won't stay huge though if they stay surely? They won't invest their own money in the team so United will fall behind the oil teams and well run teams. Ten Hag can't continue to get results without backing, which the Glazers won't provide. I don't see why staying offers them better financial rewards than selling now when the iron is hot for around 4-5bil

 

[LawCharltonBest]

If this thread tanks again, i'll let it die with grace.

But it seems more relevant and will probably get more relevant as the days go on from now

Genuinely interested to hear your thoughts

 

[Herman Toothrot]

I can't see them staying. Supporters of the Manchester United brand are already dreaming of tuning in and watching Bellingham and Mbappé lead out the boys in a new stadium. After being promised so much riches, can you imagine the venom in those hashtags when they decide to stay and just give the brickwork a power washing?

 

[TheReligion]

No

 

[Plant0x84]

Technically I guess they could stay, especially if they have groups willing to finance things for them.

But I can’t really see it happening when they have gone the route they have and we are so far into the process. They would be in very hot water if they are wasting everyone’s time.
I’m confident they are out, and all the other noise is just posturing for a better deal.

 

[TheReligion]

I’ll answer properly.

If they stay they’ll simply have to put money back in to the club and take nothing back out.

They haven’t done this ever.

I guess the question should be well the Glazers totally change their model in terms of running United?

 

[dove]

No, they will not.

 

[AltiUn]

I think Joel and Avram want to stay but they're having to get rid due to their siblings, as long as they don't get financing (which they shouldn't considering how they've tanked the club) and a s long as their siblings don't change their mind about selling then hopefully not.

 

[Pexbo]

My layman eyes looking at the club’s finances: how much debt we hold, how illiquid we are, how much needs to be spent on infrastructure (OT and Carrington), how much investment is needed in the squad to remain competitive and how fecking expensive debt is now compared to the last 18 years - I’d say there is zero chance of them staying on.

They won’t have to, but I think they would have had to accept a much lower amount than they were aiming for if it was the last offer on the table. Firstly because they can’t afford to keep it going any longer and secondly because this is their chance to sell. They have all the main players at the table, if they feck them around and show themselves to be unserious sellers, they won’t have these people with deep pockets and cordial relationships at the table again. The next time they would be coming to sell they would have a much much weaker hand.

It’s over for them.

 

[RyRy11]

I think the fan fallout if they don't sell would be far greater than what we have seen so far. If they want the £6-8bn they are going to have to wait for another 10 years of growth imo. That's without having to invest in a new stadium and making sure the team stay in Champions league football when two rivals are already state owned, another has invested half a billion in 6 months. What would make business sense in my eyes is to pay nothing for a club, wait until you've sucked the club dry to the point where you need to invest your own money and then run away with the £5bn profit you are likely to make. Then again, this is the Glazers so they don't do things that makes business sense anyway.

 

[Herman Toothrot]

I’ll answer properly.

If they stay they’ll simply have to put money back in to the club and take nothing back out.

They haven’t done this ever.

I guess the question should be well the Glazers totally change their model in terms of running United?

Do they even have any money outside of the equity locked up inside United?

 

[Pexbo]

I think Joel and Avram want to stay but they're having to get rid due to their siblings, as long as they don't get financing (which they shouldn't considering how they've tanked the club) and a s long as their siblings don't change their mind about selling then hopefully not.

I think you’ve been hoodwinked by the “Joel and Avram want to stay” PR. It’s a negotiating tactic because it’s known the others are desperate to be out.

 

[TheReligion]

Do they even have any money outside of the equity locked up inside United?

I don’t believe so but they have their NFL franchise.

If they were to stay at United though they’d need to obtain investment and then put back in. Why would they do this?

 

[Sultan]

If matters don't change with either a change of direction from the Glazers or new ownership we could see a repeat of protests leading to likely match postponements. This could then put the club in hot water with the FA. Sponsors could start bailing out.

Changes are a must.

 

[Mega Ron]

We are all being trolled if that happens.

 

[Herman Toothrot]

I don’t believe so but they have their NFL franchise.

If they were to stay at United though they’d need to obtain investment and then put back in. Why would they do this?

I can't imagine a scenario where I wouldn't accept £5bn for anything. Least of all from owning a football club, halfway around the world where the fans sing about murdering me every week and it's only paying me £11m a year. The difference between £5bn and £11m is astronomical. They should take the money and feck off back to Florida.

 

[Gordon Godot]

I can't imagine a scenario where I wouldn't accept £5bn for anything. Least of all from owning a football club, halfway around the world where the fans sing about murdering me every week and it's only paying me £11m a year. The difference between £5bn and £11m is astronomical. They should take the money and feck off back to Florida.

Its really hard to see how they turn down such huge amounts of money. The club needs £1-1.5bn spent on infrastructure, the club cannot support more debt so some form of equity injection is needed. That would need the Glazers selling down a material part of their stake, but I really question why anyone wants to put in a large amount of capital when they will have no control of real input into the running of the club and they can also how hated the owners are. It would make no financial sense whatsover. For this reason I believe the Glazers will go and we are seeing a desperate attempt to raise the price. The fact that there are clearly only two bidders for control of the club says something fundamental

 

[AltiUn]

I think you’ve been hoodwinked by the “Joel and Avram want to stay” PR. It’s a negotiating tactic because it’s known the others are desperate to be out.

Maybe.

 

[RoyH1]

If they back down they will have a lot of problems next time they try to sell

 

[Spoony]

Another full takeover offer? Jassim's crew were offered an extension which leads me to believe Big Jim still needs time to come up with the cash. Or maybe I'm completely wrong.

 

[DanClancy]

4 of the 6 siblings want out and have done for a while reportably, who in their right mind is going to give Joel and Avram circa £2.65 billion for their 4 siblings share of the club. They or the club can't afford to service a loan that size. Just don't see how under any circumstance that the other 4 are happy to hang around, revenues have stalled the last 5 years whilst the debt has increased again the stadium desperately needs upgrading.

Would like to hear a logical reason why the other 4 siblings would stay given they've apparently not been interested for a long time?

 

[GazTheLegend]

If this thread tanks again, i'll let it die with grace.

But it seems more relevant and will probably get more relevant as the days go on from now

Genuinely interested to hear your thoughts

1. Look at their investment in January. A few loan signings, all with the potential for the title still there at that point? They aren't really all that interested in winning anything
2. They are well aware that if they threaten to stay the MUFC supporters as a whole will absolutely riot outside of OT the next home game afterwards, similar to the Liverpool game after the super league news

They can't stay at this point. You can't dangle that carrot to the Mancunians and expect them to just roll over when you pull the plug on them. Theres -already- plenty of chants about killing the Glazers. That level of hate would go to another level.

 

[Steve Bruce]

To be honest, without any expertise in finance or anything else I cannot see a world where they can viably stay.

1) If Elliot for example give them the funds to buy out their siblings, they cannot like they did originally load the debt on the club, it will be their debt and with the interest rates going up, it would be very expensive i would imagine. This is before we talk about the money THEY would need to invest into the stadium etc to keep OT open. Where's this money coming from?

2) If they take a partial investment eg the other 4 siblings cash out and Joal/Avram don't, their share % would be too low to control the club themselves. And again, OT needs revamped.

3) If the siblings decide to not cash out and keep on as we are, then they will have to find the money to invest into keeping OT going. They could seek finance, but it's unlikely they'll be able to do that with MUFC and will have to seek their own finance to fund the upgrade of OT. They won't do that either.

So really it's not very plausable that they can stay. I personally believe this scaremongering by the glazers staying is their way of keeping Ineos and Qatar on their toes and try to squeeze out every last penny they can.

In saying all this, I reiterate I'm no expert in all this, its just how I see it and would bow down to anyone that is an expert in this field.

 

[Rood]

I think it's possible but unlikely

Definitely a bit of 'we don't need to sell' negotiation tactics going on

But at the same time hedge funds can come up with all sorts of financing options nowadays so it's not impossible for one of these dodgy groups to come up with a deal that works for them and the Glazers

 

[tenpoless]

Nope. This is their end goal when they put the club in NYSE. Sell those 'peasant' shares, keep the voting rights, get dividends, wait until the club is back on track (not possible under Ole) and sell for maximum value that is overpriced beyond the club's fair value, during a bidding war if possible (which is happening right now) and before they invest money into facilities. They're extremely lucky to be in this position and they will not let it go.

 

[Yakuza_devils]

I think the message from the fans in the stadium were loud and clear. Week in week out they were chanting Glazers out during the games. There were protests on the ownership outside the stadium and etc.

We need to keep making our message clear that we want these leeches to feck off back to Florida. They are the club worst ever nightmare for last 18 years.

 

[romufc]

4 of the 6 siblings want out and have done for a while reportably, who in their right mind is going to give Joel and Avram circa £2.65 billion for their 4 siblings share of the club. They or the club can't afford to service a loan that size. Just don't see how under any circumstance that the other 4 are happy to hang around, revenues have stalled the last 5 years whilst the debt has increased again the stadium desperately needs upgrading.

Would like to hear a logical reason why the other 4 siblings would stay given they've apparently not been interested for a long time?

Eactly, the money Joel and Avram will get will be to pay off their siblings and they'd have to give away 40% of the club away for that fee, I dont see how feasible that is.

The outright sale, you get yout 5.5bn and move on. I dont understand the logic of keeping the club if you dont plan to improving it.

 

[Bosws87]

No because you can only piss people about for so long.

This is the final straw they would be forced out by the masses be it having to get multiple games cancelled etc.

 

[buchansleftleg]

They could stay and I've seen it happen with a lot of "Family owned" firms that people can make desperately poor decisions because they want to maintain control of a family firm or live up to / supersede the achievements of a domineering father figure.

What gives me hope they will go however is that we have entered into the current situation of public deals. Let's imagine a scenario where 2 family members want to sell the business and 3 want to sell up fast. The 2 who want to remain have a few options.

Option 1) Try and convince one of the 3 that the good times are just around the corner....if they change their mind they can join them in...

Option 2) A low ball offer approach....emphasise how badly things are going....revenues will be falling but they want to "protect" their siblings from this potential loss....we can only afford x to buy out your shares without ruining Dad's legacy.

Option 3) The "Market Forces" approach. Tell your siblings how bad things are but they are going to try and search out for a minority stake. Invite offers and see what the market will offer for a percentage of the business - maybe the percentages of the ones who want to leave the business. Then maybe convince one to stay, the other 2 sell their percentage and the family retain overall control but get some cash injected into the business.

So it may sound like option 3 is potentially on the cards at the moment. However what blows all of these options out of the water is the idea that someone will offer to stump up £700m per family member to take the whole club....maybe even more.

I think Option 3 may have been the initial strategy for Joel and Avram because they set such a high asking price, possibly in expectation that no-one would come close to meeting it. The fact we have reached a second level of bidding to me marks endgame....they have accepted they have no option left but to sell.

 

[Bilbo]

You don't go this far into a process unless you've made your mind up. We're in the posturing/negotiating stage where the seller pretends they don't really need to if they don't want to

 

[Nytram Shakes]

Course the could they own the club, there are people willing them the money to rejuvenate old Trafford. They seem to think holding onto the club has long term financial benefits. plus they don’t care what us fans think.
So yeah think them staying is a very real possibility

 

[Galactic]

Fans just wait and see? Where are all the protests now when we really need them?

 

[Fanta Stick]

If they think they can realistically stay then they are somehow completely ignorant of the fan backlash that awaits. Especially if we have a poor transfer window.

 

[Red in STL]

If they think they can realistically stay then they are somehow completely ignorant of the fan backlash that awaits. Especially if we have a poor transfer window.

They really don't give a feck what the fans think, they've known they're hated since the day they took over.

Fan protests of the ilk that happened at the Liverpool game won't achieve anything, in fact if it happens again in that fashion the club and thus the team will be punished

 

[Infra-red]

A reminder: this process was not started with the ultimate goal of selling the club. A sale has always been one possible outcome, but not the only possible outcome. The club has been explicitly clear about this from the start. A minority investment may yet achieve the Glazers' aims.

They really don't give a feck what the fans think, they've known they're hated since the day they took over.

Fan protests of the ilk that happened at the Liverpool game won't achieve anything, in fact if it happens again in that fashion the club and thus the team will be punished

Indeed.

 

[MancunianAngels]

I think the fan fallout if they don't sell would be far greater than what we have seen so far. If they want the £6-8bn they are going to have to wait for another 10 years of growth imo. That's without having to invest in a new stadium and making sure the team stay in Champions league football when two rivals are already state owned, another has invested half a billion in 6 months. What would make business sense in my eyes is to pay nothing for a club, wait until you've sucked the club dry to the point where you need to invest your own money and then run away with the £5bn profit you are likely to make. Then again, this is the Glazers so they don't do things that makes business sense anyway.

Fan fallout. What would that include exactly? A few hashtags?

They've survived the Liverpool protest in 2021 and the initial outrage in 2005 which involved effigies of them hanging over the Stretford End.