Could the Glazers realistically stay?

[UpWithRivers]

If they think its worth 6 and they are being offered 4 for example then why would they sell?

 

[Morpheus 7]

If they think its worth 6 and they are being offered 4 for example then why would they sell?

It's hardly worth 6 though, that's the point. Club are bleeding money, in huge debt and sponsors want nothing to do with them. It's hardly a position of power from the top. United could be worth that, the squad, the stadium and facilities ect. It's nonsensical to demand 6 billion when they can't afford to run us now, not in line with reality.

 

[Godfather]

You don't go this far into a process unless you've made your mind up.

They'd also suffer from huge reputation damage if they decide to simply back out for no good reason. So yeah I agree.

 

[duffer]

If matters don't change with either a change of direction from the Glazers or new ownership we could see a repeat of protests leading to likely match postponements. This could then put the club in hot water with the FA. Sponsors could start bailing out.

Changes are a must.

Even with the progress being made under Ten Hag? If you guys win the Europa, finish strong in the league and he gets to spend another 200 million this summer, would fans really protest?

Of course I understand why people would still protest but would the on-pitch improvement curb some of the anger?

 

[Raoul]

If they think its worth 6 and they are being offered 4 for example then why would they sell?

I see 6 as their desired number. If they can get it, they will feck off imo. The family only put in a few hundred million to buy in 2005, so this would obviously be a massive profit for them, in which case they, as non football fans, wouldn't irrational to not sell.

 

[mu4c_20le]

They'd also suffer from huge reputation damage if they decide to simply back out for no good reason. So yeah I agree.

But they aren't backing out and shutting the whole thing down, most likely they would be raising capital to pay off the debt. They would obviously make the PR look really good instead of just "no deal!".

 

[Sweet Square]

If matters don't change with either a change of direction from the Glazers or new ownership we could see a repeat of protests leading to likely match postponements. This could then put the club in hot water with the FA. Sponsors could start bailing out.

Changes are a must.

Tbh I put that down to covid. It’s only work due to a lack of security(I’m not even sure it was planned).Impossible to see something like that again on a normal match day(Any attempts would lead to club bans and arrests).

 

[SuperiorXI]

I don't see how they can stay. They can't afford to sort the stadium out for one, that's a huge expense and they're already hundreds of millions in debt.

 

[HarryP]

Of course they could.

Fans have consistently underestimated the weight and importance of their opinions and feelings. The Glazers haven't given a rat's ass about them for 20 years, they're not going to start now.

 

[Loon]

I suppose if they get more investment and loans they can stay, they've said as much at the start of this process.

However, I know there have been protests before, but I think things could get very nasty as they've essentially played the bidders... but crucially the fans. Still, Florida is a long way away.

 

[SAFMUTD]

They can definitely stay but I think they'll sell. They might not get the price they want but there's a reason why so many clubs are on sale such as Liverpool and Spurs.

Football is reaching his exponential peak, revenues are not increasing as fast as player's prices and wages. While the fan base worldwide is huge there are reports that each year less and less youngsters are less interested in sports overall including football.

Sure the club prices will keep increasing over the years but it won't be as exponential as it's has been. So from a purely financial point of view it's a great call to sell right now.

 

[Loon]

I think they want to test how badly the richest bidder wants the club. Exactly right, I would do the same. Just have to hope a bidder wants the club THAT badly.

 

[Red in STL]

I don’t believe so but they have their NFL franchise.

If they were to stay at United though they’d need to obtain investment and then put back in. Why would they do this?

They own (or at least used to) a lot of commercial real estate as well as the NFL franchise

 

[pogbasformerbarber]

If you look at their financial situation, they have to sell. They have to…it’s not really a question of want. They are over leveraged. If they sit on their debt service for even another year it could be a disaster for them financially. If they sell for even in the 4’s they make a massive profit. There is a possible scenario I guess where they could have investors take out their debt for a minority share, but even that is just a band aide…but with banks seemingly headed for a protracted period of uncertainty I don’t think it’s a given they can sell down the road for much more anyway. They really just need to sell and I believed they know it, as do the bidders. This seemingly back and forth position on their end is all the public theater of negotiation…

 

[Red in STL]

I don't see how they can stay. They can't afford to sort the stadium out for one, that's a huge expense and they're already hundreds of millions in debt.

The Glazer's aren't in debt, the club is, I'm sure they are quite capable of sorting the stadium out, but they don't want to, that's quite different to saying they can't afford to

 

[Gordon Godot]

If you look at their financial situation, they have to sell. They have to…it’s not really a question of want. They are over leveraged. If they sit on their debt service for even another year it could be a disaster for them financially. If they sell for even in the 4’s they make a massive profit. There is a possible scenario I guess where they could have investors take out their debt for a minority share, but even that is just a band aide…but with banks seemingly headed for a protracted period of uncertainty I don’t think it’s a given they can sell down the road for much more anyway. They really just need to sell and I believed they know it, as do the bidders. This seemingly back and forth position on their end is all the public theater of negotiation…

The old saying is anything is only worth what someone will pay for it. It really doesnt matter what the Glazer's think, they have also starved the club of infrastructure investment and thats going to be a huge factor in what someone will pay. They also bought their stake for minimal personal cost due to the leveraged model. The current structure cannot take any more debt and I dont see how the Glazers put more capital into the club as things stand. If they sell some of their shares the proceeds go to them. Or they could have a rights issue that they are possibly a new investor takes part in to bring new funds into the club. That makes it really hard to see a route where they dont sell.

 

[cyberman]

I don't see how they can stay. They can't afford to sort the stadium out for one, that's a huge expense and they're already hundreds of millions in debt.

Get a loan and put it on the club. They’re not paying the debt we already have with it being factored on top of the price so why not do it again?
They won’t leave until it’s a shell of a club, they’re asset stripping future revenue for themselves.

 

[Red in STL]

Get a loan and put it on the club. They’re not paying the debt we already have with it being factored on top of the price so why not do it again?
They won’t leave until it’s a shell of a club, they’re asset stripping future revenue for themselves.

They can't get another loan using the club as collateral, that option has reached it's limit, that's one of the big factors in possibly selling

 

[cyberman]

They can't get another loan using the club as collateral, that option has reached it's limit, that's one of the big factors in possibly selling

They have plenty looking for minority investment. I’m sure they can use that capitol some sort of way. I’m probably wrong but this suddenly doesn’t smell right to me

 

[Infra-red]

They can't get another loan using the club as collateral, that option has reached it's limit, that's one of the big factors in possibly selling

You are right, they cannot borrow any more. They are not completely out of options, though. They could pull some Barca-style "economic levers" (auction off future revenues). They can also raise funds by selling/diluting their equity (it appears they have a number of offers on the table for exactly this).

 

[Nytram Shakes]

If they think they can realistically stay then they are somehow completely ignorant of the fan backlash that awaits. Especially if we have a poor transfer window.

They have had fan backlash since day 1. They won’t care!

 

[Tincanalley]

I don’t think continuing as is is feasible for them. It would not surprise me to see a couple of them somehow involved in a new set up. Indeed they might be attracted by offers which include such provisions. Cannot be ruled out, in my view

 

[Nogbadthebad]

They don't have the cash for the infrastructure investment that will keep the club operating effectively.

At the same time the debt is becoming an issue for football operations, to the point that it is unlikely they would be able to continue to take a dividend in the forseeable future.

So no, this is the end game for them, anything else is just trying to push bidders into higher offers.

 

[Giggsyking]

Even with the progress being made under Ten Hag? If you guys win the Europa, finish strong in the league and he gets to spend another 200 million this summer, would fans really protest?

Of course I understand why people would still protest but would the on-pitch improvement curb some of the anger?

No

 

[pogbasformerbarber]

The old saying is anything is only worth what someone will pay for it. It really doesnt matter what the Glazer's think, they have also starved the club of infrastructure investment and thats going to be a huge factor in what someone will pay. They also bought their stake for minimal personal cost due to the leveraged model. The current structure cannot take any more debt and I dont see how the Glazers put more capital into the club as things stand. If they sell some of their shares the proceeds go to them. Or they could have a rights issue that they are possibly a new investor takes part in to bring new funds into the club. That makes it really hard to see a route where they dont sell.

Agreed, theres really no way out of for them financially other than a complete sale. I'm curious about the terms from the partial sale bids. I think those must be total theater. I would be loathe to put funds in any business to simply pay off bad debt, only to have a minority stake in decision making. Liquidity is extremely tight these days so no one is going to be that stupid. Thats also not a great deal for the Glazers as they would be trading equity on a future sale down the road for some debt relief today...plus likely lose much of the dividend share and flexibility in the meantime. It's really a bad option for both sides. The books are public, so we know the precarious nature of the balance sheet.

We can go round and round about speculation and concern that they might stay...but the bottom line I there is almost no economic scenario that makes sense for there Glazers at this point other than a total sale. Otherwise they are staying in a dreadfully bad financial mess that could bleed into their other assets. I think its pretty comical that there is even a question of the outcome at this point...

 

[Greck]

They have plenty looking for minority investment. I’m sure they can use that capitol some sort of way. I’m probably wrong but this suddenly doesn’t smell right to me

They did actually explore selling a minority stake and still are. It won't be easy. Problem they'll run into is finding a private non-bank buyer ready to pay the amount it would take to help their financial situation but also passive enough to let them keep significant ownership. How much 'minority' stake is my one billion going to net me? One that doesn't need significant dividend returns anytime soon. They've reached the end of the line where they can't manage any more debt. They aren't actually selling because they want to. The sale is almost entirely necessitated by money.

 

[pogbasformerbarber]

They did actually explore selling a minority stake and still are. It won't be easy. Problem they'll run into is finding a private non-bank buyer ready to pay the amount it would take to help their financial situation but also passive enough to let them keep significant ownership. How much 'minority' stake is my one billion going to net me? One that doesn't need significant dividend returns anytime soon. They've reached the end of the line where they can't manage any more debt. They aren't actually selling because they want to. The sale is almost entirely necessitated by money.

I think the partial bids are basically all theater to (try to) create leverage on the full sale bids. It's a more common strategy than many might think....especially for such public acquisitions. I'm sure the terms are totally undoable for the Glazers.

 

[pogbasformerbarber]

They have plenty looking for minority investment. I’m sure they can use that capitol some sort of way. I’m probably wrong but this suddenly doesn’t smell right to me

To be clear, a bid doesn't mean an obligation. There is an extensive due diligence period before closing that means even a official bidder could easily find a way to pull their offer if they want (even though the Glazers aren't going to accept any partial bids anyway so its moot). Its entirely possible than many of these partial funding bids are theater by friendly firms of the Glazers to help them create leverage on the real bids, or even firms trying to bid as a way to increase their public perception. I've worked for PE firms that have made speculative bids to essentially increase their stature numerous times. These partial bids are meaningless IMHO.

 

[Alonzo]

Could not be more guaranteed it’s done for glazer at United.

they don’t give a shit about the club, never have, and they can’t use it as an atm anymore. They’ve bled it dry. All that hanging on will do is increase debt by the week, without the ability to take dividends (the club is losing money) and weaken their asking price in short and medium term,on the chance that some massive, and not projected growth comes from somewhere. It’s not about fan protests or their safety, although i think that could realistically become a concern if they stayed, it’s that their entire ownership has been greed and exploitation, and Using that model therell never be a better time to flog it off.

 

[lex talionis]

They need to fukking go. But yeah, they could hang on by the looks of it.

 

[Von Mistelroum]

I've thought all along that they are more likely to stay than sell. I would love to be wrong but they seem like exactly the sort of people who would go through all of this and then decide that they actually want to stay and take on more debt or something.

 

[RopersReturn]

It’s looking increasingly that way, the only possible explanation is they’re trying to leverage for a loan by selling a minority of none owned shares roughly amounting to 30%, to Elliot Hedge fund management.

 

[Rightnr]

No, no matter what the uninformed tea leaves readers on here might write in their delusions.

 

[Tarrou]

Fan fallout. What would that include exactly? A few hashtags?

They've survived the Liverpool protest in 2021 and the initial outrage in 2005 which involved effigies of them hanging over the Stretford End.

if they sell here you could argue they didn’t survive that protest

it helped scupper the super league plans and now they’ve decided to sell up and take the win

 

[432JuanMata]

You know what I hate the Glazers for what they did to this club, they put a self sustaining club in debt and then took all the profits to clear their debt.

The thing I hate about the media especially Neville is that he now says they don’t invest yet years ago said nothing.

The truth is we stopped spending when they took over and due to SAF geniusness it got covered up. The problem I have over the last 5 years is now they spend money on players but have no notion on football that it was all money wasted.

 

[wolvored]

What I dont understand about this is the amount of money they want. If £6 billion is true, then with their 69% share, this puts the clubs value at just under £8.7 billion. If they mean the club is worth the £6 billion, then their share is just over £4.1 billion. Which is it? Ineos only want their share, but Qatar want full control. Does this mean the 2 bids are vastly different?

 

[devilish]

I very much doubt that they would stay.

a- United is losing money
b- Our infrastructure is crap and needs huge investment
c- the majority of Glazers wants out
d- they opened the books to third parties. That means that if they took these billionaires for a ride then the data could be leaked and would have a devastating effect on their business
e- the fans will revolt and the share price/profits will plummet
f- while we had improved under ETH, its evident that the only way it can be sustained is through huge investment in the squad. We lack that
g- there are very few billionaires willing to invest 5b in United. Those who are willing to do it now will probably buy some other club if their bid is rejected thus leading to less buyers
h- interest rates are set to sky rocket. That's bad news for a heavily indebted club

A minority stake can buy out some of the Glazers but will not result in the stadium being rebuilt and funds being injected in the squad.

 

[Rampant Red Rodriguez]

The cost of servicing their cheap loan has rocketed with recent interest rate rises. Not a chance they can service the cost of financing on their own, they don't have that sort of money required to invest big in the team and pay big money on the loan. I think now could be the right time to riot hard against their ownership to force their hand into the sale.

Imagine we struggle to invest as required in the market because of the loan requirements put upon us by the Glazers. Mental scenes!.

 

[Roboc7]

They’d all have to agree to stay and this whole process would just be a complete waste of time.

Any scenario where they either sell shares and reinvest is utter nonsense as there’s no way they don’t line own pockets. Selling them without investing just gives new investor and them same problems. Any borrowing just increases their current problems. It wouldn’t make much sense to stay but if greed is the motivation then sense might not come into it.

They essentially just have to all agree to limp on, but they have to refinance in couple of years, club is only going to be neglected further and this current process has emphasised how small the market is for club already.

 

[Red00012]

If they think they can realistically stay then they are somehow completely ignorant of the fan backlash that awaits. Especially if we have a poor transfer window.

They don’t give 2 fecks about us