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To put it into context De Gea is 4 saves away from having an identical save % to Henderson. Those 4 saves difference has cost 1 more point.
This is not true.Nobody is saying Henderson hasn't made mistakes, all goalkeepers in all the teams will make errors, they're human. The problem with De Gea is hes making more mistakes than most for the second season in a row, whilst Henderson has been statistically one of the best keepers in the league.
Henderson is a really great young keeper, and we'd still have Romero as a solid second option if there are problems with Henderson, but I'm honestly convinced there wouldn't be.
It's a shame because I love De Gea, but we can't afford to be sentimental and keep him in the side when he's performing like this.
Don't worry, you're not going mad, you're quite right.If one goalie faces 50 shots and let's in 10, and another faces 100 shots and lets in 10, they're obviously not equally as good even though they let int the same number. Simply looking at goals conceded doesn't let you compare them. Pretty simple point, surely.
Maybe further analysis would tell us this. But what you’ve shared doesn’t.
Sheff United won’t have the budget to buy Henderson, if you wanted to sell him it’d likely be to Chelsea.I’d give serious consideration to Pope because he’s the best keeper in the PL. Sell Henderson to Sheffield, sell de Gea and that will be close on £100m. I rate the lad Ramsdale at Bournemouth too. Pope, Ramsdale and Romero would be. three top keepers all capable of challenging each other.
Yes it does you just don’t want to admit it. They have faced almost identical numbers of shots only a difference of 6 shots.
Henderson has faced 126 shots on target against (shots that if not saved would result in a goal) and saved 96 so 76.2% save rate.
De Gea has faced 120 shots on target against and saved 87 so 72.5%.
Very comparable figures and percentages and also very comparable points lost as a result of those non saved shots.
There is the further analysis and conclusion is the same as before. Henderson despite his “better” season is still costing similar to De Gea.
https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/error_lead_to_goalThis is not true.
Not even an opinion at this point if De Gea is making too many mistakes then so is Henderson as De Gea has only cost 1 point more for us than Henderson has for Sheffield United.
Good stats, thank you for those. I do think you're understating what a difference of 4% is between keepers. 80% is god level, 60% is clown level, so a 4% diff isn't trivial. It also doesn't account for the difference in the Goal Prevented stat, which is still suggesting Henderson is making saves De Gea isn't. Thoughts on that welcome.
I understand very well. The difference so far this season has been 1 point.Good stats, thank you for those. I do think you're understating what a difference of 4% is between keepers. 80% is god level, 60% is clown level, so a 4% diff isn't trivial. It also doesn't account for the difference in the Goal Prevented stat, which is still suggesting Henderson is making saves De Gea isn't. Thoughts on that welcome.
I have read that and I have also watched every single goal both De Gea and Henderson have conceded this season.
I will endeavour to find them now for you however I won’t be able to find clips of Henderson at a comparable level to De Gea for last season as this is his only PL season so will not be looking to do an in depth analysis through all of their video clips of conceded goals for 18/19.Do you have stats for the previous season too?
But you saying what I said isn't true is false, unless of course you're saying you actually disagree with the premier league.I have read that and I have also watched every single goal both De Gea and Henderson have conceded this season.
The fact is Henderson has cost 5 points De Gea 6.
You actually posed a possible solution there.
Nice!
Also consistent with the current and upcoming seasons.
Season 20/21
1. Dean back with us.
2. First month of next season, Dean play most of the games with Romero back-ups.
3. De Gea given one month holiday (justification? = De Gea need a "break" to get back his normal form, maybe Ole can mention the break given to Schmeichel by SAF)
4. If Dean convinces, stay and keep his place.
5. If Dean is shaky and terrible ala Foster, we may need De Gea back if we're really serious in winning trophies and doing better next season.
6. Scenario #4 would meant De Gea can start fishing for new clubs and go away the earliest Jan 21'.
7. Scenario #5 meant we may need to loan back Dean (if still can) to get more exps.
Either scenario, we lose nothing.
The break may even jog De Gea to get back his "normal" form with almost zero mistakes every game.
Done!
Easy.
It is absolutely true!But you saying what I said isn't true is false, unless of course you're saying you actually disagree with the premier league.
A player costing their team points is a stat without context, a keeper can make an error and their team could still go on to win the match.
I understand very well. The difference so far this season has been 1 point.
Or 4 saves. Whichever you prefer.
I agree this season Henderson has prevented above expectation. I do not believe for one second he will continue to put up the same figures as no goalkeeper in PL history has ever.
What I am saying is that all of Henderson’s heroics actually boil down to a 1 point difference in points dropped as a result of the GK.
So everyone on here hounding De Gea for his costly mistakes should also be hounding Henderson for his. The only difference is that Henderson isn’t observed week in week out and his mistakes aren’t advertised.
I am not saying he hasn’t had a better season but I am saying the criticism De Gea is facing currently is completely unfair when compared to the praise of Henderson
It absolutely is meaningful because it shows the team isn’t being severely affected by De Geas mistakes alone. The fact that doesn’t line up with the narrative that sells papers is the problem you’re facing in accepting it.I’m not sure the points dropped thing is very meaningful, it’s too dependant on the rest of the game. If your strikers bail you out with two goals after you make a mistake, that doesn’t make you a better keeper. Better to stick to the more robustly comparable stats.
Putting aside the issue of whether Henderson will continue in his current form, the real question is whether De Gea can get back to his best. Is there any reason beyond simple optimism for thinking he’ll turn his form around? How long should he be given?
It absolutely is meaningful because it shows the team isn’t being severely affected by De Geas mistakes alone. The fact that doesn’t line up with the narrative that sells papers is the problem you’re facing in accepting it.
I honestly wonder what the point is of providing actual unbiased analysis and facts on this forum if this isnt something you’re willing to accept.
If points dropped isn’t meaningful then you can’t have a go at De Gea for supposedly costing us games?
Woah, put the strawman down, no one expects him to reach superhuman standards every week to justify his place. Maybe just suggest how long you think we should give him to get back to a more typical level of his.De Gea will never get back to his 14+ expected goal best because that is the best Goalkeeping season in PL history and no GK has ever managed that before and I doubt will again. It is a ridiculous standard to hold him to.
It’s not pointless it’s good analysis of what the actual cost of the GK is to their sides. You just don’t like the outcome as it doesn’t play into the narrative you prefer.Im talking about how Henderson would be at United. Using a method that factors in Sheffield Uniteds strikers limitations is obviously pointless.
Woah, put the strawman down, no one expects him to reach superhuman standards every week to justify his place. Maybe just suggest how long you think we should give him to get back to a more typical level of his.
This is totally wrong. The difference in points cost is 1 point. The difference in points saved, it is hard to know. What we know is that De Gea has an xGA of close to 0, while Deano has it over 8. So, if we had saved those 8 goals for us, than the difference would have been bigger than 1 point. Depending on where those saves were allocated, the difference could have even been in double digits.I understand very well. The difference so far this season has been 1 point.
Or 4 saves. Whichever you prefer.
I agree this season Henderson has prevented above expectation. I do not believe for one second he will continue to put up the same figures as no goalkeeper in PL history has ever.
What I am saying is that all of Henderson’s heroics actually boil down to a 1 point difference in points dropped as a result of the GK.
So everyone on here hounding De Gea for his costly mistakes should also be hounding Henderson for his. The only difference is that Henderson isn’t observed week in week out and his mistakes aren’t advertised.
I am not saying he hasn’t had a better season but I am saying the criticism De Gea is facing currently is completely unfair when compared to the praise of Henderson
It’s not a straw man you said his best, that was his best? Tell me what you think is a typical level of his then you give some thought and criteria. I can’t answer that without knowing what you feel his level should be.
So nobody can argue De Gea is costing us much worse than Henderson would. That was entirely my point.This is totally wrong. The difference in points cost is 1 point. The difference in points saved, it is hard to know. What we know is that De Gea has an xGA of close to 0, while Deano has it over 8. So, if we had saved those 8 goals for us, than the difference would have been bigger than 1 point. Depending on where those saves were allocated, the difference could have even been in double digits.
No just tell me what you think his level should be. Then I’ll happily answer.‘Kin ‘ell, like blood from a stone. Just forget it mate it was only a casual question, if you don’t want to answer, no worries.
It depends on how you look at it. The point difference is (number_of_points_saved_from_Deano - number_of_points_saved_from_DeGea) + (number_of_points_lost_from_DeGea - number_of_points_lost_from_DeGea). We know only the results of the third and fourth variables, in which case Deano is +1. We can estimate the results for the first 2 variables based on xGA. So, it is not outlandish to suggest that we would have been 5+ points better with Deano.So nobody can argue De Gea is costing us much worse than Henderson would. That was entirely my point.
Ive not once argued against points saved.
Just had a quick skim through it, there's a lot of work put in but its one guys opinion on the goals along with a YouTube link.It is absolutely true!
Watch the clips in the link provided and make up your own mind. The goals were mistakes from the GK imagine you’re judging De Gea for both.
It is not without context I have literally provided the entire context of the match who it was against what happened that resulted in the goal and also what the result would have been without the mistake.
Read the full link. Become informed and then tell me it’s not all true. These are facts.
All of the data is in context and you can look yourself.
What I’m trying to say is there is no way to know exactly how many point have been saved but I agree with you Henderson would have saved more.It depends on how you look at it. The point difference is (number_of_points_saved_from_Deano - number_of_points_saved_from_DeGea) + (number_of_points_lost_from_DeGea - number_of_points_lost_from_DeGea). We know only the results of the third and fourth variables, in which case Deano is +1. We can estimate the results for the first 2 variables based on xGA. So, it is not outlandish to suggest that we would have been 5+ points better with Deano.
So yeah, saying that De Gea cost us 5+ more points than Hendo would have done, is totally true.
It’s literally word for word explaining each goal and I invite you to watch them and point out any you disagree with.Just had a quick skim through it, there's a lot of work put in but its one guys opinion on the goals along with a YouTube link.
You can't just parrot a subjective view from reddit whilst telling people to inform themselves and saying they're "facts" they're not facts.
Greenwood isnt a good example. Henderson has been playing regular first team football for 3 years now and Greenwood less than 6 months.I think Henderson needs another year in the league.
Its funny how the media think Greenwood isnt ready for the pressure of being a starter for us but Henderson is? GK is the one position where no errors is left un judged.
Greenwood isnt a good example. Henderson has been playing regular first team football for 3 years now and Greenwood less than 6 months.
Do agree that the keeper position is different though however what needs to be weighed up is do we feel Henderson can be good enough for us or not. If we think he can then I feel he should get a shot at ousting DDG next season. Otherwise we should aim to bring in a new keeper
DDG has been in decline for 2 years and thats not comparing him to his wonder season. He is regularly making basic errors and even worse they are coming at the business end of the season (both last season) and now
He has a better save % this season.DDG has been in decline for 2 years and thats not comparing him to his wonder season. He is regularly making basic errors and even worse they are coming at the business end of the season (both last season) and now
Obviously yes however Greenwood isnt a good example was my point. The pressure on someone like Greenwood who hasnt played regular mens football for more than 6 months is different to Henderson who has alot of experience.First team football and Premiership football are very different things. Id like him to get more time in the league.
In my post I obvioisly stated the costly mistakes at the business end of the last 2 seasons.He has a better save % this season.
What would you class as his level then if we aren’t comparing him to his peak +14 XGA season what would you say De Geas level should be at to avoid criticism and not be accused of decline?
Where has he declined from?
So who would you class as a top keeper who fits that criteria?In my post I obvioisly stated the costly mistakes at the business end of the last 2 seasons.
A top keeper is one who can keep their concentration and eliminate mistakes especially in big games. One of the reasons I never classed Lloris as a top top keeper was because (although he made a lot of saves) he was always going to make a very costly mistake.
DDG form has declined thats obvious to see and again even when you take out the wonder season
The problem with your posts is that you focus only on the "save" part of being a GK. But it's so much more.To put it into context De Gea is 4 saves away from having an identical save % to Henderson. Those 4 saves difference has cost 1 more point.
Before the last 2 years he wasnt regularly dropping clangers at the business end of the season. Of course he was top class before that.So who would you class as a top keeper who fits that criteria?
Would you want us to spend this summer acquiring that player?
What do you believe De Gea has declined from? Was he a top class keeper before in your eyes?
They have both faced and saved near identical amounts of shots? De Gea isn’t getting less to deal with than Henderson so I don’t buy your first point there.People uncritically apply xG and save percentages as a metric to separate two goalkeepers, one playing for a team without pressure and one playing for one of the biggest in the world. Here I would use common sense and the old saying of teams making the keeper look good, it’s easier to play for Sheffield and get lots of shots at you every game compared to playing for United and having to save the few shots that come in. If he makes a mistake, nobody cares, if DDG makes one it’s on SkySports with commentary from 12 ex-players within the hour.
DDG will be first choice next season, 100% certain. In two years? Not so sure. What is also 100% certain is that Henderson is not ready to take the reigns next season and replace de Gea, it would be a huge risk and no evidence is in to support it. You can play a young left back and get away with it, but you don’t tinker with the goalkeeper just like that.
I absolutely agree it’s so much more. I was only trying to combat one narrative that’s all so please don’t think me blinkered I just had one thing I wanted to get across as I was getting fed up of the false narrative with regards to mistakes.The problem with your posts is that you focus only on the "save" part of being a GK. But it's so much more.
Sometimes claiming a cross before it gets to a striker will nullify the attack. Or better organizing your defense which will result in a blocked shot. Things like these won't appear on the shot statistics or xG for example.
This is why a keeper who will have comparable save stats to Dave's will look a lot more competent.
For example: a better keeper would punch the ball away in the 2-2 vs Soton. Not Dave's fault. But a better keeper gets us 2 more points which would have us in the driving seat right now.
Sadly De Gea doesn't offer much in the respect above. The only reason to keep him around was if he had some insane reflexes. And being top of the league by saving % isn't going to cut it. If your all round game sucks, you have to outperform everyone in the saves department.
These days Dave can't even make it to No.1 and a lot of fans are still making excuses.
First of all thanks for responding.Before the last 2 years he wasnt regularly dropping clangers at the business end of the season. Of course he was top class before that.
His decline has come around the world cup.
Anyway I don’t know what the club should do. He has a long term contract if there is interest in him I would sell and replace with a different profile of keeper. One that is great with distribution and command of area and has a sweeper profile (we need one as Maguire is slow)
Thats the optimal for me but I appreciate it may not be possible. Mainly because DDG may he difficult to shift
They have both faced and saved near identical amounts of shots? De Gea isn’t getting less to deal with than Henderson so I don’t buy your first point there.
I do agree there is far more psychological pressure on De Gea every game compared to Henderson. It takes a very strong character to be a GK at United.
I personally don’t think Henderson is ready or the GK that style wise is what people want.
I absolutely agree it’s so much more. I was only trying to combat one narrative that’s all so please don’t think me blinkered I just had one thing I wanted to get across as I was getting fed up of the false narrative with regards to mistakes.
I absolutely agree De Gea hasn’t been good enough this season at commanding his area it’s one of the reasons we are so reliant on Maguire to cover this weakness.
I agree a better all round GK would be lovely but the issue is does one exist that we can buy and be confident in replacing De Gea?
Who would you say we replace him with?