El Salvador Mega Prison

shamans

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Here's the trend for the last few decades. Bukele took over halfway through 2019.

rate in 2004 = 65
rate in 2018 = 52

Since Bukele:

rate in 2019 = 37
rate in 2020 = 19
rate in 2021 = 17

and it's plummeting further down.


This graph does not tell the whole story. Without going into detail, the spike in 2014 speaks a lot. That's when a government truce collapsed and we see what happened then. A great lesson of the risks of trying to deal with violent gang members as if they have any code or honor. The initial decrease from 1994 to 1998 is probably due to the initial elevated amount of deaths from the civil war as well

But the main point, and the reason why this crackdown started was 87 people murdered within 2-3 days of March 2022. Victims randomly murdered from what I read. Why? they were trying to send a message to the government.

The fact that a gang can, at will, kill almost 100 innocent civilians randomly just to send a message to the government is a lot more meaningful than just looking at the total homicide rate (if you must ignore that). Since then, the murder rate has plummeted even further.

Anyway, even if you ignore everything I said, you do realize the decline in 2016 started from a policy of "extraordinary measures". You can find hundreds of articles online criticizing the policies, calling it too brutal and a violation of human rights.

In 2016 and again in 2017, the Washington-based Inter-American Commission on Human Rights said the available evidence suggested that enfrentamientos amounted to systematic extrajudicial killings. In 2017, the United Nations asked the Salvadoran government, which has been controlled by the leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, or FMLN, since 2009, to discontinue Extraordinary Measures—a recommendation that Landaverde, now the minister of justice and security, says was “based on falsehoods.” Also last year, in its first report on El Salvador, the International Crisis Group declared that mano dura had been a failure. Yet the government is doubling down, and now seeks to renew Extraordinary Measures for another year.
Human rights report from 2016: https://www.state.gov/reports/2016-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/el-salvador/

Seems clear it’s all because of him and his human rights violating prisons.

It’s honestly quite depressing how some people seem to find happiness in the bad treatment of people just because they’re criminals.
With all that said, would love to hear what you two think was the reason for the slight decline since 2016?
 
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maniak

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Weird arguments here. If people want to suggest imprisoning large number of criminals reduces crime, I would kinda get it. But why the need for the torture?
 

Krakenzero

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rate in 2004 = 65
rate in 2018 = 52

Since Bukele:

rate in 2019 = 37
rate in 2020 = 19
rate in 2021 = 17

and it's plummeting further down.


This graph does not tell the whole story. Without going into detail, the spike in 2014 speaks a lot. That's when a government truce collapsed and we see what happened then. A great lesson of the risks of trying to deal with violent gang members as if they have any code or honor. The initial decrease from 1994 to 1998 is probably due to the initial elevated amount of deaths from the civil war as well

But the main point, and the reason why this crackdown started was 87 people murdered within 2-3 days of March 2022. Victims randomly murdered from what I read. Why? they were trying to send a message to the government.

The fact that a gang can, at will, kill almost 100 innocent civilians randomly just to send a message to the government is a lot more meaningful than just looking at the total homicide rate (if you must ignore that). Since then, the murder rate has plummeted even further.

Anyway, even if you ignore everything I said, you do realize the decline in 2016 started from a policy of "extraordinary measures". You can find hundreds of articles online criticizing the policies, calling it too brutal and a violation of human rights.



Human rights report from 2016: https://www.state.gov/reports/2016-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/el-salvador/



With all that said, would love to hear what you two think was the reason for the slight decline since 2016?
They should bring the guy who was there from 2015 to 2019, since reportedly he did better. And apparently he didn't depose members of the SC nor changed the constitution to allow reelection.

So almost 3 years into Bukele's tenure a gang kills about 100 people in a couple of days? He's not winning anything mate. He's winning the war on violence just like the US were winning the war on terrorism. In August 2001. Maybe we can talk about a truce or something like that.
 

choiboyx012

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Seems clear it’s all because of him and his human rights violating prisons.

It’s honestly quite depressing how some people seem to find happiness in the bad treatment of people just because they’re criminals.
Happiness? Or relief that something drastic is being done and a large number of these thugs are imprisoned away from society?

Either way i think most people are more depressed by the violence and destruction these gangs have been wreaking on innocent citizens at will. And zero to little fecks are given to their prison conditions.
 

maniak

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What kind of torture is occurring?
If the conditions descried in the OP don't qualify as torture in your view (for me that alone would be enough to call it torture), just google "torture el salvador prisons" and you'll get plenty of reading material
 

WI_Red

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Happiness? Or relief that something drastic is being done and a large number of these thugs are imprisoned away from society?

Either way i think most people are more depressed by the violence and destruction these gangs have been wreaking on innocent citizens at will. And zero to little fecks are given to their prison conditions.
Which is why emotion should not play into justice. If someone killed my wife I would want their blood, even though I think the death penalty is an abomination. Emotion/grief/anger have no place in the dispensation of justice or we just devolve into a whirlpool of vengeance and retribution.

On the flip side, in the US we have daily stories of violence and killing being perpetrated by the very people we have entrusted to protect us. Would the proper response by the victims families be the rounding up and torture of every other police officer? No, of course not. Instead the guilty parties should be arrested and prosecuted, and we can't even get that. The point is that in a civilized society their must be equal and fair treatment for all. Whether they be LEO, murderer, gangster, or normal person.
 

shamans

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They should bring the guy who was there from 2015 to 2019, since reportedly he did better. And apparently he didn't depose members of the SC nor changed the constitution to allow reelection.

So almost 3 years into Bukele's tenure a gang kills about 100 people in a couple of days? He's not winning anything mate. He's winning the war on violence just like the US were winning the war on terrorism. In August 2001. Maybe we can talk about a truce or something like that.
You mean the last guy. President from 2014-2019 where it went from 40 something homicides at the start of he tenure to 50 something?

And yeah he's winning. 2021 was the safest year in El Salvadors history. It was only surpassed by Bukele's next year in charge, 2022. I would say that's definitely achieving something the locals care about rather than appeasing a bunch of arm chair "experts" sitting cozy in the west.
 

maniak

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You mean the last guy. President from 2014-2019 where it went from 40 something homicides at the start of he tenure to 50 something?

And yeah he's winning. 2021 was the safest year in El Salvadors history. It was only surpassed by Bukele's next year in charge, 2022. I would say that's definitely achieving something the locals care about rather than appeasing a bunch of arm chair "experts" sitting cozy in the west.
Do you feel the crime numbers would be worse without the inhumane conditions or are the number getting better because of the inhumane conditions?
 
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choiboyx012

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If the conditions descried in the OP don't qualify as torture in your view (for me that alone would be enough to call it torture), just google "torture el salvador prisons" and you'll get plenty of reading material
I did a quick search and there wasn’t anything concrete or detailed. Personally my biggest issue is the lack of due process, and that is clearly being violated in this state of emergency order. As far as the overcrowding and poor conditions in the prison, I feel it’s more symptomatic of most prisons in third world countries with dire socioeconomic conditions than it is “torture”. Just google any Latin American country and “prison” and you’ll see photos that are similar if not worse than in the OP. I’m not saying it’s “right” or people should be “happy”, but in poor countries like El Salvador, it is what it is.
 

Krakenzero

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You mean the last guy. President from 2014-2019 where it went from 40 something homicides at the start of he tenure to 50 something?

And yeah he's winning. 2021 was the safest year in El Salvadors history. It was only surpassed by Bukele's next year in charge, 2022. I would say that's definitely achieving something the locals care about rather than appeasing a bunch of arm chair "experts" sitting cozy in the west.
I think you are not looking at the chart correctly. Compare first full year vs. last year. Well, I'm neither an expert at charts nor in crime policy, crime statistics or El Salvador contingency like you. Unless maybe you aren't either, and then we are left with the chance of reading what the actual experts on the field say. What a surprise would it be if they agreed with what the arm chair experts said, wouldn't it?
 

NotThatSoph

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I did a quick search and there wasn’t anything concrete or detailed. Personally my biggest issue is the lack of due process, and that is clearly being violated in this state of emergency order. As far as the overcrowding and poor conditions in the prison, I feel it’s more symptomatic of most prisons in third world countries with dire socioeconomic conditions than it is “torture”. Just google any Latin American country and “prison” and you’ll see photos that are similar if not worse than in the OP. I’m not saying it’s “right” or people should be “happy”, but in poor countries like El Salvador, it is what it is.
If you goolge "El Salvador prison 2021" the conditions were a lot better, so I guess El Salvador used to be a lot better than most of Latin America, even though they're one of the poorer countries?
 

choiboyx012

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If you goolge "El Salvador prison 2021" the conditions were a lot better, so I guess El Salvador used to be a lot better than most of Latin America, even though they're one of the poorer countries?
Do you have a link to that? I’m sure their prisons have always been shitty and overcrowded. Only now a new facility has been unveiled to mass incarcerate gang members.
 

maniak

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I did a quick search and there wasn’t anything concrete or detailed. Personally my biggest issue is the lack of due process, and that is clearly being violated in this state of emergency order. As far as the overcrowding and poor conditions in the prison, I feel it’s more symptomatic of most prisons in third world countries with dire socioeconomic conditions than it is “torture”. Just google any Latin American country and “prison” and you’ll see photos that are similar if not worse than in the OP. I’m not saying it’s “right” or people should be “happy”, but in poor countries like El Salvador, it is what it is.
You believe el salvador can't afford more than a toilet for each 50 prisoners? My interpretation of the situation is that they do it because they want some sort of revenge and cruelty added to the process, to set an example. It's an obvious violation of human rights, and even if you believe some people deserve it, like you said, lack of due process means loads of innocent people might be living in those conditions as we speak.
 

oates

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Right let's think of a massive poverty overhaul, adjust imports and exports to fix the financial situation, bring about economic stability and hope for the best. Meanwhile the thousands getting slaughtered everyday will sort itself out, no need to worry about that. Not like dozens of murders a day will impact the economy!

Very intellectual indeed...
I'm sorry, I'm just catching up, when was this?
 

NotThatSoph

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It was a joke, because considering the fact that you've been defending this for pages it would be insane if you haven't already looked into it yourself, so presumably you already know what I'm about to say and it is strange to ask.

As a start, meals per day have been cut from three to two, with threats of cutting to zero.
 

shamans

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It was a joke, because considering the fact that you've been defending this for pages it would be insane if you haven't already looked into it yourself, so presumably you already know what I'm about to say and it is strange to ask.

As a start, meals per day have been cut from three to two, with threats of cutting to zero.
That's why you see them obeying every order of the police in prison. These guys used to run the prisons. It didn't phase them. Bukele straight up gave orders if you aren't going to comply you don't get fed. No more hiding behind laws.

Also, previous measures against ms 13 would result in them just killing more folks for fun to prove to the government they can't be messed with. I think they finally got the message.

EDIT Just to quote how Bukele himself put it
“There are rumors that they (gangs) want to start taking revenge on random, honest people,” Bukele said. “If they do that, there won’t even be one meal in prisons. I swear to God they won’t eat a grain of rice, and let’s see how long they last.”

“They should stay calm and let themselves be arrested; at least on the inside they will continue to live and have two meals a day,” Bukele said.


“I don’t care what the international organizations say. Let them come here and protect our people,” the president said. “They can take their gang members if they want; we’ll give them all of them.
Well said
 
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WI_Red

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That's why you see them obeying every order of the police in prison. These guys used to run the prisons. It didn't phase them. Bukele straight up gave orders if you aren't going to comply you don't get fed. No more hiding behind laws.

Also, previous measures against ms 13 would result in them just killing more folks for fun to prove to the government they can't be messed with. I think they finally got the message.

EDIT Just to quote how Bukele himself put it


Well said
Sure, starve people, why not.
 

Isotope

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The central American problems with US origin gang culture will never be sorted by just locking these brainwashed people up. They need to implement social changes that give these barrio dwelling kids something to aspire to, something that can give their existence meaning other than some preconditioned loyalty to an identity that was created in another nation.
Good luck with that. Many of "good", sane, and educated people don't even know the meaning of their existence.
 

WI_Red

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The reason is very clear not a "why not" and I know you know.
Exactly. It’s totally cool for the government to starve people as a negotiation tool. Next they should arrest family members and threaten to execute them. Or take a page from the Israelis and bulldoze their families houses. All totally cool and civil tactics.
 

berbatrick

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If people are surprised that tough measures are popular, or that their popularity proves that they are effective/good/targeting the right people...
In 1936, the height of Stalin's power, in a consultative process for a new Soviet constitution, the 4th most popular feedback from ordinary people was ... to eliminate due process:



Source: https://www.mat.univie.ac.at/~neretin/misc/getty.pdf
 
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Vitro

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Is there an example of when an “iron fist” approach by a government has worked over the long term?
 

WI_Red

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Is there an example of when an “iron fist” approach by a government has worked over the long term?
I don't think it matters. Despots and autocrats never think long term, the tactics they use exist purely for maintaining power in a crumbling situation.
 

Vitro

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I don't think it matters. Despots and autocrats never think long term, the tactics they use exist purely for maintaining power in a crumbling situation.
Yeah it makes sense from an autocrats’ perspective but a lot less so from an outsider’s perspective looking in (if you care about the welfare of the populace).
 

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https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/02/24/gps-0225-winter-on-bukele-and-el-salvador.cnn

Landslide victory was never in doubt. Hopefully the peace and prosperity continues for the Salvadoran people.
The problem is that he just bent the law to be president again. I am not disputing the effectiveness of his measures so far and I am sure that this 80-90% population support is true, as the situation in El Salvador was very extreme. The problem we all know how it ends when authoritarianism stretches through time and when the judicial power and executive power separation line blurs

Time will tell
 

choiboyx012

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The problem is that he just bent the law to be president again. I am not disputing the effectiveness of his measures so far and I am sure that this 80-90% population support is true, as the situation in El Salvador was very extreme. The problem we all know how it ends when authoritarianism stretches through time and when the judicial power and executive power separation line blurs

Time will tell
Yea that’s why i said hopefully. First term was the honeymoon period. Things can and often do go sour the following terms. Jose mourinho vibes.

more anecdotally i know and work around a lot of Salvadorans and I’m genuinely happy for them. They’re all flying back to visit family more frequently. Taking vacations there and sharing how much it’s changed for the better. Even non-Salvadorans tourists are traveling there now and enjoying all the country has to offer. Hopefully it helps their economy.
 

4bars

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Yea that’s why i said hopefully. First term was the honeymoon period. Things can and often do go sour the following terms. Jose mourinho vibes.

more anecdotally i know and work around a lot of Salvadorans and I’m genuinely happy for them. They’re all flying back to visit family more frequently. Taking vacations there and sharing how much it’s changed for the better. Even non-Salvadorans tourists are traveling there now and enjoying all the country has to offer. Hopefully it helps their economy.
I visited shortly el salvador in 2012 and san salvador is the only city that after 10 minutes walking on the streets at night I decided to go back to my place as it felt eerily dangerous. It was not that I saw anything, it was the feeling. And I visited countless places in latinamerica, I basically visited all continental american countries. Also, meeting with locals, they were genuinely scared and more than once people told me in buses WTF I was doing there that I would be killed. Maybe I was lucky?

But yes, so far only positive comments from locals. civil liberties are disappearing in El Salvador, that is the downside. But it seems that so far it might compensate for the general population. We certainly can't transfer democracy to every single place and countries have particularities that might warrant these type of solutions but of course, when you are on the receiving end and you did nothing wrong or even you are an oppositioner that is affected for this abuse of power, it will tell you a different tale and I would fully understand. But it seems that the vast majority of salvadorians are enjoying the results.

Hopefully there is a path to revert the situation and recover the civil liberties and is just an hiatus to tackle their extreme circumstances