I don't think he's particularly bungling renegotiation nick, more that it was never on in the first place. As I've been posting for a few years now, the whole idea was a delaying tactic to cover up tory division. Didn't delay it long enough for him personally though, he'll still be in charge when the shitstorm starts.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
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Cameron's in a bit of a juxtaposition. If he campaigns too heavily to stay in the EU and the Public and Media listen, he'll be damaging any leverage he has when he enters negotiations.
It's definitely beneficial for him to have a country split on the idea so he can force the EU to convince us to stay in.
It's definitely beneficial for him to have a country split on the idea so he can force the EU to convince us to stay in.
The official campaigning wont start until he has finished the renegotiation so I think Camerons position until then will remain unchanged in that this is what I want and if we get it then I want us to stay in
Unofficially of course no mater what the concessions he achieves actually are you suspect he is going to spin them in a way that allows him to campaign for in (and I would suggest they have some tacit outline agreement in place with a few of the other members already otherwise they would not have gone public with their demands - but thats just my gut feel)
I think a lot of the campaigning will be about getting your vote out though as most people I speek to seem to be pretty certain which way they will vote even now with no regard to what if any so called concessions are achieved - I will be voting to stay in - there is simply way to much risk for my business to even contemplate leaving the EU
If Cameron's inclinations are to bolster the pro-Brussels lobby then he might want to reconsider his approach to the campaign, as all too quickly i can envisage him becoming an almost toxic figure for them. And if the Government continues with the sort of scaremongering we've seen to date, both Cameron and Osborne will have brunt too many bridges to ever be seen as an honest actors in the aftermath.
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Fieldwork was 16-17th
Brexit now backed by 47 per cent of British voters, new poll reveals
Kate McCann, Matthew Holehouse and Christopher Hope
17 Dec 2015
British voters who want to leave the European Union dramatically outstrip the number of people who want to stay, the biggest ever poll of where the UK sits on the issue finds today.
In a significant blow to David Cameron on the day of a crucial Brussels summit, a major survey of 20,000 voters discloses that 47 per cent of the public now want to leave the EU – with just 38 per cent opting to remain and 14 per cent undecided. Of the undecided, only 50% say that they will turn up to vote.
Full articel :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...e-Britons-want-to-leave-the-EU-than-stay.html
Kate McCann, Matthew Holehouse and Christopher Hope
17 Dec 2015
British voters who want to leave the European Union dramatically outstrip the number of people who want to stay, the biggest ever poll of where the UK sits on the issue finds today.
In a significant blow to David Cameron on the day of a crucial Brussels summit, a major survey of 20,000 voters discloses that 47 per cent of the public now want to leave the EU – with just 38 per cent opting to remain and 14 per cent undecided. Of the undecided, only 50% say that they will turn up to vote.
Full articel :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...e-Britons-want-to-leave-the-EU-than-stay.html
If we can't make any headway with negotiations when a poll is in the offing, particularly a poll which is leaning towards Brexit, then the UK has absolutely no chance of ever making any changes in the future if the poll is over and we stay in Europe. Seems one heck of a good reason to get out of Europe asap.
Just found out the reason one of my cameras has a limit on recording time is because of EU regulations. I'm switching to the out side, bloody arsehole bureaucrats.
Playing Devil's Advocate: If farage would exit quietly via the back door and someone else - Carswell or Nutall for instance - became leader, it might boost UKIP's credibility and make the party more effective in campaigning for an out.
It's not often someone accuses Paul Nuttall of being credible. The only thing Farage has to do to avoid hurting the out cause is not be its face. Him leading UKIP won't be a decider. Ideally, they'd get a senior Labour or Conservative MP to be the main face of the Brexit.
Cameron is gettimg what he wants from the negotiations, a gutting of workers rights. The in work benefits bit was only a bone to throw at the right wings immigration obsession
Fortunately, the Leave campaign has grown well beyond UKIP, but that isn't say the cause wouldn't be harmed by internal party disputes. Farage and Carswell had the entire summer in which to wage this conflict, the former even tendered his resignation.
But with Cameron falling short of even his own limited objectives, the poll numbers will hopefully continue to move in a positive direction.
I do agree infighting isnt ideal. And also that UKIP is not the driving force behind the out campaign. But Farage as leader can still damage it by being his usual self, discouraging 2 potential voters for every 1 that loves him and refusing to coordinate with a centralised campaign HQ that he isnt running himself. My guess is Carswell feels this is an historic opportunity and he is worried Farage is going to fluff his lines and do more harm than good. Better late than never, is probably his calculation.
Again, this is Devil's Advocate. To be honest I couldnt really care less what the out campaign is doing, I just wish the in campaign would get its shit together and start making a convincing case for staying.
You might be waiting a long, long time for that
Its starting to look that way isnt it.You might be waiting a long, long time for that
All the In campaign needs to do is put as much doubt and uncertainty around the idea of leaving as they can. Negative campaigning is the way to win referendums (or referenda if you're being posh).
yes - I find it hard to believe that when the vote comes closer that we wont see a swing to the stay vote
Although the No campaign has had a over a 20 year head start with people pushing for it since maastricht and plenty of people having decided that regardless of any negotiation they will vote out (and probably plenty who has decided they will vote in) the actual stay campaign clearly wont start properly till negotiations have finished (presumably Feb / March) whilst various no campaigns seem to be gathering a bit of traction.
I suspect it will be the summer before we see full on campaigning (so mp's can campaign freely without it being a problem in westminister) with a vote (to stay) late summer / early autumn.
Telling people the truth doesn't play much of a role in your view of politics, does it?
The No campaign in the Scottish referendum was negative and essentially based around the idea that Scotland's economy would be highly vulnerable should it leave the UK, particularly if the oil price dropped. It was negative, but it was also true. Scotland would be screwed right now if they'd left.Telling people the truth doesn't play much of a role in your view of politics, does it?
Truth was a hole the No campaign accidentally fell into, I think.
I was making a different point though. Some of your posts in the Jeremy Corbyn thread suggested a somewhat Machiavellian attitude to the manipulation of the masses! Tell them whatever the market can bear, and conceal your true intentions.
You'll probably say that's politics; and of course you're at least half right. I've always preferred politicians like Mrs Thatcher though - where what you see is what you get. At least people know what they're voting for.
I think you should propose a policy agenda that the majority can get behind and implement it if you're elected. I don't think you should say one thing to get in and do something different once elected at all. Maybe you're referring to where I say you can have an overall quite centrist offer with some quite lefty (or righty if you're so inclined) stuff in there as well? Dunno though, I do talk quite a lot of shit in the Corbyn thread.
It is being reported that Cameron shall later today announce a free vote for members of the Cabinet, making it possible for thgem to campaign for an Out should they so wish.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...d-Cameron-gives-ministers-free-vote-live.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...d-Cameron-gives-ministers-free-vote-live.html
Sensible... Just as with labour and Syria (and probably Trident) it needs to be a free vote or the press only report on the divisions in the party
Announced in advance of the negotiations which again is sensible as it's then not able to be portrayed as a climb down because of failed negotiations
I think the majority will back the pm but will be particularly interesting to see if Boris puts himself on the opposite side of the argument to Osborne
Cameron lacks the numbers, both among the Cabinet and the wider party to fore the issue. And unless he pulls a veritable field's worth of rabbits out of his hat with these renegotiations, of which there is no sign, this dynamic will only worsen. The UK, the European Union, both have been in a sort of malaise since the financial crisis nearly a decade past, Brexit could break that pattern and ask some much needed questions of all parties.
Johnson is at least consistent in his arrogance, a condescension which speaks of lessons not learnt from Labour's time in government.
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Wonder what we'll hear from all those tories who made Labour's free vote out to be some kind of political abandonment of responsibility and protested that voters deserves to know where the party stands.
I'm sure the BBC will be consistent in their reporting of this and the Syria free votes. A goverment that doesn't know whether it wants to be in or out of the EU brilliant should receive harsher criticism than any against an opposition party.
Nothing's changed much. Cameron is still delaying as best he can, and hoping he can finish his term with no loss to his own reputation.
Given the total disarray in Labour he has a uniquely free hand to assert his own convictions, if he had any.
Given the total disarray in Labour he has a uniquely free hand to assert his own convictions, if he had any.
That's a fairly sad fact. I remember I used to think politicians actually wanted to do something with the power rather than just watching someone on TV and saying "yeah, I could do that."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/09/tory-mps-britain-european-union-eu-brexit
At least two-thirds already in favour of leaving, and a significant proportion of the remainder merely biding their time, this is good. People have been predicting a split comparable to that seen in the early-90s, however this failed to take into account the increasingly Eurosceptic nature of both the 20210 and 2015 intake of MPs.
You reckon it'll get nasty?
That would depend on the circumstances: how close the polls are as the referendum approaches, if the EU is seen as unduly influencing the process, and the negativity of campaigning more generally. More likely in my view, is that the daggers will be out afterwards, either to depose a defeated leader (understandably IMO) or make things difficult for Osborne.
I've been predicting it will get nasty for ages, and at one time it would have ripped the Tories to shreds, but nowadays I'm not so sure.
Apart from a general desire to climb as far up the greasy pole as possible, keep as much dosh as they can, and ensure the lower classes are put in their place, it doesn't look as if many leading Tories have much actual political conviction any more.
Apart from a general desire to climb as far up the greasy pole as possible, keep as much dosh as they can, and ensure the lower classes are put in their place, it doesn't look as if many leading Tories have much actual political conviction any more.
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Will UK economic suffer an impact if exiting the EU? They kept the pound so in that aspect is not a problem.
I heard someone say something along the lines that he didnt want to campaign too heavily on the issue because it would weaken his position when he negotiates with the other EU members. If he waits he will then have a firmer platform to stand on after those negotiations are over.
At the end of the day, Cameron is not stupid, Britain in Europe is stronger than Britain out of Europe, but he isnt going to get far with the EU members if he admits that and he also knows if he campaigns now for a Brit exit then it might actually happen.
Im not in Britain and dont know the general vibe about Europe but my missus is English and she reckons England has lost a lot from being in. What do you reckon?
Better off out imo and I'm happy that the opinion of the country seems to be moving to that conclusion too.
We pay £55m per day into an organisation that has *never* had its accounts audited ffs.
We pay £55m per day into an organisation that has *never* had its accounts audited ffs.
Yes, those points do come into it.
In general the British have moaned like hell about the EU for decades, egged on by tory right-wing newspaper-owners, but they're not stupid, when the majority of economists, business leaders and unions all say we need to stay in for economic reasons that will count for a lot in any referendum. The unknown is immigration, there is simply no way of both staying in the EU and controlling immigration, and when the debate hots up that will be apparent. Whether it will be enough to swing a vote to Out I don't know, but it may.
I'm not sure - another summer of migrants from syria etc may actually have a majority of countries in the EU pushing for stronger border controls and limitation of movement.
I don't think the principal of an EU citizen moving elsewhere in the EU to work will be questioned - but again I dont think thats actually what most people have an issue with.
It will for sure play a part in the debate - but how it will play out I honestly have no idea
I'm hopeful we will stay in - I don't fancy sacking a chunk of my staff
That is, of course, not true https://fullfact.org/factcheck/europe/eu_budget_signed_off_auditors-49494
We already knew that sentiment amongst SMEs was more supportive of Brexit than the CBI would like people to believe, and there was further confirmation of this changing mood at boardroom level just last week:
The European Union is a corrupt organisation with scant regard for those it purports to serve. It has been shown to be either utterly dysfunctional or incompetent when confronted by anything resembling a challenge, and the views of all too many countries are subordinate to those of Berlin, or more broadly the Franco-Germans. If the European nations are desirous of a cooperative organisation through which their strengths can be harnessedm the EU certainly isn't the answer.
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Except that the negotiations have been a complete farce. There isn't likely to be any treaty change to speak of, and he intends to claim victory on benefits for migrants, which is but a peripheral concern if one at all.
The European Union is a corrupt organisation with scant regard for those it purports to serve. It has been shown to be either utterly dysfunctional or incompetent when confronted by anything resembling a challenge, and the views of all too many countries are subordinate to those of Berlin, or more broadly the Franco-Germans. If the European nations are desirous of a cooperative organisation through which their strengths can be harnessedm the EU certainly isn't the answer.
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Full figures...
62% favour staying
28% say they will make their mind up after the details of a re-negotiation are finalised
4% had no opinion
and 6% favoured leaving
More than 10 times as many in favour staying to leaving!
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