Ecuador equalise...
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
- Thread starter Levo
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Need a big hold until 75th minute or something. I've only ever seen 1 late overs lose when both are out with a draw out of over 100 games.
On now. Need a wild last 5 minutes.
Dissallowed goaal at the end that should have stood as defender tried to play ball. Annoying.
Goal was gaping for the lad that took the initial shot.
My dear Bencic playing at Eastborn WTA @12 CET. Cried at the court Sunday, expect big swings and looking to take advantage if she is a break up. Was looking to speculate against Kenin had the match gone yesterday, but a days extra rest after Mallorca win should have done her well. Putinseva to put up a figth against Bertens, but if Bertens goes through will bet on her against any top player, as she has absurd record against them, 15-3 vs top 10!
Edit: Danilovic playing as well in Wimbledon qualifier today, she is mental and has dropped set leads to r366 and r191 in last two games giving me big profits, look for "big swings"!
Edit: Danilovic playing as well in Wimbledon qualifier today, she is mental and has dropped set leads to r366 and r191 in last two games giving me big profits, look for "big swings"!
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Possible arbing market at Albot and Lopez matches.
I’ve never really understood the strategy, so to speak, with corner betting. I’d be interested in understanding why you think this game is set for a ‘low’ (what is even considered low?) corner count?
Managed to make a small margin at Evans - Albot match when Albot broke the service at first game. A few pennies for the stack, nothing more.
Money returned at the other match. Lopez resigned.
Money returned at the other match. Lopez resigned.
Ended up taking Brazil with a draw no bet at 4.5, so was reasonable value.
Now I’m on Draw into Japan qualification @6.5, as I can see this going to penalties. fingers crossed.
I've looked at the for and against corner count averages in games for both sides, where the asian handicaps are similar to this particular game, combined with the averages in this year's tournament, and weighed them together. You'd then weigh the result in with the tournament average how you see fit. As you can see the value I get comes to 7.25, depending how I weigh the averages it goes between 7.25-7.75. A normal corner line tends to fall around the 9-10 mark, and due to the volatility of women's football and the nature of punters prefering overs to unders, it'd be risky for a bookmaker to have the corner line set so low, so some bookmakers have weighed more towards the tournament average as it's the safer option.
Using the value I get and ignoring the tourny average, I have under 8.5 at around 1.5 and under 5.5 at around 3.75 at 100%, so with the margin applied you're looking at 1.4 for u8.5 and 3.0 for u5.5.
Also worth adding that pricing corners for women's games is a bit trickier as there's less data to work with and bigger fluctuations in quality! It's all pretty subjective at the end of the day.
Some bizarre prices for me in gold cup tonight.
Jamaica win at 4/5 and Honduras 0 at evens both look incredible to me.
Curacao beating Honduras 1-0 was a massive massive freak. They should have lost the game 3/4-0. Honduras also should have beat Jamaica. Honduras are the best side in the group for me but somehow have 0 points. Market has overreacted to the results of these games so far.
Curacao need to beat Jamaica also, Jamaica will get big counter chances late on if it’s a draw. Confident Jamaica will be winning before then though.
Jamaica win at 4/5 and Honduras 0 at evens both look incredible to me.
Curacao beating Honduras 1-0 was a massive massive freak. They should have lost the game 3/4-0. Honduras also should have beat Jamaica. Honduras are the best side in the group for me but somehow have 0 points. Market has overreacted to the results of these games so far.
Curacao need to beat Jamaica also, Jamaica will get big counter chances late on if it’s a draw. Confident Jamaica will be winning before then though.
Nice call. Played it safer with under eight at 7/4, in hindsight I could have been a bit braver.
Just about came in with 5 corners
was 2 corners up until the 77th minute than 3 came in after.Cheers, never want to bet on that market again, the last 5 minutes were horrible
Great tip man, thanks!
Bencic broke 1st game, so got a bet in against her and got the stake hedged when she was broken game after. no profit though as she held on this time, but looking shaky and on her knees screaming at one point. Predictably dropped a set lead in 2nd match vs Alexandrova for a nice win at almost 6/1.My dear Bencic playing at Eastborn WTA @12 CET. Cried at the court Sunday, expect big swings and looking to take advantage if she is a break up. Was looking to speculate against Kenin had the match gone yesterday, but a days extra rest after Mallorca win should have done her well. Putinseva to put up a figth against Bertens, but if Bertens goes through will bet on her against any top player, as she has absurd record against them, 15-3 vs top 10!
Edit: Danilovic playing as well in Wimbledon qualifier today, she is mental and has dropped set leads to r366 and r191 in last two games giving me big profits, look for "big swings"!
Went against Dani @16/1 for a small punt but she held on needing a tie break to win 2nd set against r435. Playing against her again tomorrow when/if opportunity arises...
Should have bet against Kenin as planned but didn't as the day extra rest put me off, lost convincingly as expected. Putinseva didn't put up a fight, and Bertens should beat Friedsam now. Looking to back her VS Saba(prob)/Woz after that.
Edit: Oh and bet Vonda @26/1 vs Mertens, saved matchball and broke twice to take 2nd set, but I was busy elsewhere and she threw it away without me getting a hedge in for a guaranteed win!
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Went into check the premier League odds for next season and United are 33/1 to win the league. 33/1 even before the season has started is a bit depressing
What should be even more depressing is that it isn't even an appealing bet at 33s.
If Jamaica goes to plan then El Salvador are already through before the 2nd game. Annoyingly team sheets will be announced during the Jamaica game but if El Salv are through then they won't give 100%. Won't be awake for the game though as need to be up at 7am so will need to go bed after the Jamaica game, hoping Honduras take it more seriously and don't rotate much.
Ignore, Jamaica have rotated loads. Team sheet I seen initially was wrong. Terrible lineup. Would cash/trade, completely bizarre team.
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Cheers for this Honduras tip. Went quite big on them on money line and -0.5, good wins and I can only regret the last goal as I also had few euro on Honduras winning by a margin of 3 @23 still can’t complain at all, thanks man!
still can’t complain at all, thanks man!Thiago Monteiro looks like a good underdog for today.
No worries!Cheers for this Honduras tip. Went quite big on them on money line and -0.5, good wins and I can only regret the last goal as I also had few euro on Honduras winning by a margin of 3 @23
Thanks really appreciate you taking the time to explain! And well done on it come up! Although it did seem nervy!!
Ain’t that the truth.
Sweet arb of mine
. People who went on simple bet on Monteiro, things are going well.On Norway Women +0.5 today. I've got it as a 50/50 game. Pre tournament I would have had England at 2.1 to win, however, England have massively underwhelmed for me. It slipped under the radar due to Cameroon's antics but England were horrendous that game. They were very fortunate really, a couple of inches in Cameroon's favour and Cameroon could have been winning the games pretty easily. 1st goal wasn't a back pass (was a bad first touch). Norway been impressive, they matched up really well against France bar a 10 minute spell early in the first half. Also doubts over Bright and Houghton for today's game. If they're out I've got Norway as favourites.
Making a killing on this match, bought Hesse at 19/1 - Hedged for Dani @1,97, now looking for big odds on Hesse again at end of 3rd. Dani was a set and a break up btw
Edit; half the winnings on Hesse now @9,75.......Edit II; Dammit 2 breaks down now, probably can't win now even against Dani, still a nice profit and the best is that Dani will play again tomorrow!
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Tomorrow!
My bad, slept 3 hours or something, paying the price for it!Going medium for Sabalenka VS Woz @2.55, think Woz has looked very erratic, not convinced she has the health anymore. Expect at least to get to hedge my stake at around 2.50 mark.
On Norway tomorrow as well @Spiersey, pretty much 100% your sentiments...
Edit; Horrible first set by Saba, ditto 2nd for Woz, managed to hedge my stake @2.20 early 3rd. Expecting a minimal loss and Woz win, 80% profit if Saba turns it around, but doesn't look likely atm.
Edit II; Saba comes back from the dead and wins it, WTA!
On Norway tomorrow as well @Spiersey, pretty much 100% your sentiments...
Edit; Horrible first set by Saba, ditto 2nd for Woz, managed to hedge my stake @2.20 early 3rd. Expecting a minimal loss and Woz win, 80% profit if Saba turns it around, but doesn't look likely atm.
Edit II; Saba comes back from the dead and wins it, WTA!
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I'm on BTTS in this Egypt v Congo game and Congo have hit the bar twice man
What do people think of USA women being 6/4 to win the world cup
No value in them at current prices for me. I've got some on from earlier in the tournament but I make them about 7/4 currently to win. France the value pick on my current prices (have them around 3/1). Obviously hope France lose to them on Friday though.
Sugita - Rosol is my pick for today. I think Rosol is a good "underdog".
Shaky start from Rissol that saved 2 BP. Not showing confidence.
not confident at all. Under 38.5 games as insurance bet. Still a good odd.
You're the most panicky better I have ever seen
It's more of a strategy than panic ;-)You're the most panicky better I have ever seen
I'm on Dzumhur with a small bet to do the same, looking to hedge at up around 2.5. Also did a straight out bet on Jabeur to win from behind @10.50 - Did it that way as she is a notorious slow starter....
Edit; A set @One Night Only, you can tell from the odds
(pre-match) Hedged my bet now @2.12. Will bet Jabeur again at around 10-1 if she is loosing.
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Win from behind... How behind? A game? A break? Or a full set?
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