Thought a separate thread for this might be advisable, only a few months away. From what I've seen Fillon looks the likely winner but hard to rule Le Pen out after the past year or so.
French Elections 2017
- Thread starter Cheesy
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Fillon is favourite, but then, it's three to four months out... and Brexit, Trump. Let's hope 2017 is less right wing than 2016, though.
Still hoping Macron can scrape into the final two.
Don't know much about French elections, but how does Marcon as an Independent run an effective campaign agaisnt the party apparatuses of the Repubilcans, Socialists and the National Front?
The primaries for the left will take place on 22nd and 29th January.
7 candidates will take part in 4 televised debates (as did the Right)
The 7 candidates being Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg, Benoît Hamon, Vincent Peillon, (all 4 Socialist) Sylvia Pinel (Radical Left Party), François de Rugy (Ecologist Party) and Jean-Luc Bennahmias (Democratic Front)
7 candidates will take part in 4 televised debates (as did the Right)
The 7 candidates being Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg, Benoît Hamon, Vincent Peillon, (all 4 Socialist) Sylvia Pinel (Radical Left Party), François de Rugy (Ecologist Party) and Jean-Luc Bennahmias (Democratic Front)
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Le Pen has the visual talent to beguile every male in France to vote for her. Shame about the policies.
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She is as ugly as a woman can be.The right will win.
I'm afraid we are at the beginning of the growth of the right. Hope you are correct though.
I don't understand this sentiment, France have mainly been on the right side, for us it's normal.
I wasn't referring to just France. I meant globally and particularly in Europe.
Something to take into account in both the German and French elections would be the impact of any further, and especially sustained, attacks. If there were any (God forbid) they might have less impact in Germany but would the same be true for France ?
Who is Putin backing?
What?
Nice wum
Le Pen. Someone who has the visual talent to beguile every male in France to vote for her. Shame about the policies.
Thinking of other Le Pen.
Very pretty.
Very pretty.
She is but she also fundamentally ignorant and demonstrate it every time she opens her mouth. I still can't believe that she thought that the region she wants to preside have 2 million inhabitants.Thinking of other Le Pen.
Very pretty.
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Only way this could really be useful is if it convinced Valls not to stand. Which I'm guessing it probably won't?
Given Hollande's unpopularity in France I would imagine Macron hopes this is not the case.
The Socialist party have next to no hope of making the final round of the presidential election.
Exactly, and given Macron has got within a few percent of the leading two in polls where Valls doesn't stand, you'd think Valls would put himself aside. But I suppose there's more to it than that.
But there are still 3 other Socialist candidates in the Primary, particularly Hamon and Montebourg who are not that far behind Valls in the polls and the Socialists must have some kind of potential candidate otherwise it looks the end of the road. Hollande has made them so unpopular at present but would expect them to be back in the future
Yeah, but Hamon and Montebourg don't take as much away from Macron as Valls does, and the extra few percent counts for a lot in a tight race. I think he probably falls just short in either case, but still stands a better chance without Valls for the PS.
I don't disagree but Hollande cannot be seen backing an independent against his own party. With or without Valls, Macron probably won't have enough to get in the run-off, but who knows after last year.
I would like to see Le Pen knocked out in the first round, although at this stage seems unlikely.
Hamon (the leftist) tops Valls in the first round of the Socialist primary, good chance of being the final candidate. Would be an interesting dynamic between him, Melenchon and Macron for the first round of the election proper.
I am so happy that prat called Valls are about to get spanked. PS is gonna lose in any case, but at least not with him leading them.
Given the numbers, it would probably make sense for the PS candidate to step down in favour of macron (realistic) or melenchon (wet dream)
Yeah, why haven't they done so yet? Seems silly for them to be divided when Macron's doing not too bad.
Because he isn't a member of their political party, he doesn't like them and they don't like him.
Suppose. They're going to have to compromise at some point, though. He seems like a far, far better option for them than Fillon or Le Pen.
His propositions are about the same than Fillon, only the "intensity" is different which isn't surprising since he is centrist but don't want the label.
Anyone anti Brussels please
You're anti-EU? Would've never guessed.
They'll do better than the Americans and Brits did? Won't they?
We all know that Le Pen is going to win. Yes, the polls say that Fillon is going to win, but the polls have been spectacularly wrong recently.
Not really, though. Plenty of Brexit polls had the Leave vote winning, and even then Remain's leads were always narrow. We only all felt confident because we wrongly assumed the status quo would prevail.
Even the US polls weren't far off. They predicted a 3-4% lead for Clinton towards the end and she only got slightly less than that. The polls just underestimated how well Trump would do in several key states, where all his narrow victories remain remarkable.
If the polls have it at 55-45, then I'd go in with some trepidation. If it's at 60%+ (as a lot of them are) though, then I wouldn't worry too much. Same can be said for Macron-Le Pen if they both oust Fillon, as unlikely as that is. Macron-Fillion would be very interesting though, not sure how that'd turn out.
Latest poll 64% Fillon 36% Le Pen on the 2nd round vote.
Fortunately the french system makes a surprise result less likely.
Btw in my personal experience I have yet to meet one single French person that thinks Brexit is good for the UK or that Trump is good for the USA.
Hamon and Melenchon should form a ticket, imo, as they are both quite left-wing. Macron wouldn't get along with Hamon.
Have you met anyone that thinks Hollande is / was good for france?