French Elections 2017

[Paul the Wolf]

I need to get beyond the vocabulary and grammar used in transfer (rumor) stories of L'Equipe, L'Ouest etc.

I wasn't aware that Le Pen has so many financial affairs. She's not necessarily the one capitalizing on Fillon's potential Penelope-gate then, is she?

Just heard the fresh allegations of Canard Enchaîné towards Fillon. Do you guys think it is possible that he'll step back at some point? I read somewhere Juppé wouldn't run in such a case, Sarkozy would lose anyway, so who would be left for the French Republicans and more importantly, how would a candidate be determined?

Fillon will probably only step back if he is prosecuted. If he did, no idea who would replace him now.
Fillon is certainly losing popularity because of this, the one to gain at this moment seems to be Macron.
Le Pen is more riddled than him with inquiries.
As there are three months to go, probably more revelations will occur on any one of the candidates.

 

[Ubik]

Fillon seems boned, to my inexpert eye. Hopefully Macron is the beneficiary and doesn't have any skeletons himself...

 

[Crossie]

Thanks, Paul. It'll be interesting 12 weeks ... Hopefully, France will have a male president in the end.

 

[JPRouve]

Fillon will probably only step back if he is prosecuted. If he did, no idea who would replace him now.
Fillon is certainly losing popularity because of this, the one to gain at this moment seems to be Macron.
Le Pen is more riddled than him with inquiries.
As there are three months to go, probably more revelations will occur on any one of the candidates.

But her support claim that it's a conspiracy and the young idiots use the FN as an example of a party with moral values.

 

[JPRouve]

Fillon seems boned, to my inexpert eye. Hopefully Macron is the beneficiary and doesn't have any skeletons himself...

The problem is that we don't even know, if he is guilty, I have no intentions to vote for him but it bothers me that claims can be made without hard proof.

 

[devilish]

The problem is that we don't even know, if he is guilty, I have no intentions to vote for him but it bothers me that claims can be made without hard proof.

what are Le Pen chances now?

 

[DOTA]

I'm English. I have two housemates, one American and one French. We're just waiting for France to complete the Brexit, Trump, Le Pen hat trick.

 

[JPRouve]

what are Le Pen chances now?

No idea.

 

[Ubik]

But her support claim that it's a conspiracy and the young idiots use the FN as an example of a party with moral values.

That sounds about right, corruption is something that other people do to those kind of folk.

I'm English. I have two housemates, one American and one French. We're just waiting for France to complete the Brexit, Trump, Le Pen hat trick.

If it does happen then it does seem to have been the fault of your household, somehow.

 

[Crossie]

The problem is that we don't even know, if he is guilty, I have no intentions to vote for him but it bothers me that claims can be made without hard proof.

If Penelope had worked for him, Fillon must easily be able to provide proof to the investigators. As far as I understand French media, she didn't have a badge to access the building in which parlamentary aides usually reside, and she didn't have her own e-mail account. The first one wouldn't bother me but it's hard to imagine that she didn't have an e-mail address unless she can prove she did a Hillary instead.
Fillon should also easily able to prove to investigators what exactly she had been doing for him to justify the €7,000 / month salary. There must be people she interacted with who can prove she worked for him.

It should be a piece of cake for Fillon to prove all that.

 

[Crossie]

Le Pen refuses to pay the €300,000 back to the EU.

 

[JPRouve]

If Penelope had worked for him, Fillon must easily be able to provide proof to the investigators. As far as I understand French media, she didn't have a badge to access the building in which parlamentary aides usually reside, and she didn't have her own e-mail account. The first one wouldn't bother me but it's hard to imagine that she didn't have an e-mail address unless she can prove she did a Hillary instead.
Fillon should also easily able to prove to investigators what exactly she had been doing for him to justify the €7,000 / month salary. There must be people she interacted with who can prove she worked for him.

It should be a piece of cake for Fillon to prove all that.

Yeah, we will see.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I'm English. I have two housemates, one American and one French. We're just waiting for France to complete the Brexit, Trump, Le Pen hat trick.

I still have faith that the French are not as daft as a large chunk of the British or the Americans were

 

[JPRouve]

I still have faith that the French are not as daft as a large chunk of the British or the Americans were

I think the abstention is going to win. The hate for politicians is strong.

 

[DOTA]

I still have faith that the French are not as daft as a large chunk of the British or the Americans were

I hope so. I am very worried, though. The FN has been lurking in the background for quite a long time. They clearly have a decent amount of strong support. I worry there may be enough folks somewhat sympathetic to their message to make it happen.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think the abstention is going to win. The hate for politicians is strong.

Yes I think you're right

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I hope so. I am very worried, though. The FN has been lurking in the background for quite a long time. They clearly have a decent amount of strong support. I worry there may be enough folks somewhat sympathetic to their message to make it happen.

If it was first past the post, I would be worried but she's not going to get more than 50% in the first round and if she gets to the 2nd round whoever is against her should get more than her.

 

[DOTA]

If it was first past the post, I would be worried but she's not going to get more than 50% in the first round and if she gets to the 2nd round whoever is against her should get more than her.

Is the second round just two choices?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Is the second round just two choices?

Yes, the top two of the first round go into the final 2nd round

 

[Crossie]

Yes, it is. Polls might not be as reliable as they used to be but the latest one did not look too bad.

Macron and Fillon should both win against Le Pen in the 2nd round.

 

[JPRouve]

Yes, it is. Polls might not be as reliable as they used to be but the latest one did not look too bad.

Macron and Fillon should both win against Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It might be interesting for people, RTL-TF1-Figaro are right wing media.

 

[Crossie]

I have no idea if this guy has any credibility or if the screenshot he provides is valid but if it is, it's an interesting finding.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Fergies Gum]

What is that screenshot about?

@Crossie

 

[Crossie]

What is that screenshot about?

@Crossie

It shows that a domain named baroin2017.fr was registered on 27th of January 2017. Baroin is a French conservative politician who had served under Sarkozy if I am not mistaken, successor of Christine Lagarde as Minister of Finances.

On the 27th, it was clear that Fillon would be formally questioned about his wife's work, and it wouldn't be surprising if one or more conservative politicians prepare in the background to jump into the race in case Fillon steps back; having a website would be part of the prep work. Juppé made it clear he wouldn't do it, Sarkozy is unpopular.

That's at least my take on it but am happy to be corrected by our French residents.

 

[Fergies Gum]

It shows that a domain named baroin2017.fr was registered on 27th of January 2017. Baroin is a French conservative politician who had served under Sarkozy if I am not mistaken, successor of Christine Lagarde as Minister of Finances.

On the 27th, it was clear that Fillon would be formally questioned about his wife's work, and it wouldn't be surprising if one or more conservative politicians prepare in the background to jump into the race in case Fillon steps backhaving a website would be part of the prep work. Juppé made it clear he wouldn't do it, Sarkozy is unpopular.

That's at least my take on it but am happy to be corrected by our French residents.

Ok thanks. Been reading about Fillon and his corruption allegations.

You wonder why these kind of politicians who engage in corruption think they can run to be elected president, without their dirty dealings being made public.

 

[Cheesy]

Macron's now the bookies favourite, for what it's worth.

 

[Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87]

This Fillon guy looked a worse crook than Sarkozy. I think he is about to retire.

 

[Ubik]

Macron's now the bookies favourite, for what it's worth.

Le Pen still about 3/1

 

[Crossie]

Ok thanks. Been reading about Fillon and his corruption allegations.

You wonder why these kind of politicians who engage in corruption think they can run to be elected president, without their dirty dealings being made public.

It seems that they have been getting away with it for decades, in more or less all countries, and it's kind of new to them that voters refrain to accept that any longer.

 

[Cheesy]

Le Pen still about 3/1

True...although she's not changed too much since Trump's win. Macron is getting closer and if he can just squeeze into 2nd the polls indicate he'll win the second round comfortably. If the PS back him, he'd be close to a dead cert.

Out of interest...what's the power of the President like in France? Because obviously they have their legislative election to come as well, so if another party or two comfortably beat out Le Pen, how much power would she have as President?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

It shows that a domain named baroin2017.fr was registered on 27th of January 2017. Baroin is a French conservative politician who had served under Sarkozy if I am not mistaken, successor of Christine Lagarde as Minister of Finances.

On the 27th, it was clear that Fillon would be formally questioned about his wife's work, and it wouldn't be surprising if one or more conservative politicians prepare in the background to jump into the race in case Fillon steps back; having a website would be part of the prep work. Juppé made it clear he wouldn't do it, Sarkozy is unpopular.

That's at least my take on it but am happy to be corrected by our French residents.

Baroin is currently mayor of Troyes and a Senator.
He spoke at Fillon's rally on 29th Jan, so two days after the above, supporting Fillon
.
Baroin2017.fr is registered with 1&1 but don't know who the owner is.
The bloke who tweeted the screenshot is a militant communist

 

[Crossie]

Baroin is currently mayor of Troyes and a Senator.
He spoke at Fillon's rally on 29th Jan, so two days after the above, supporting Fillon
.
Baroin2017.fr is registered with 1&1 but don't know who the owner is.
The bloke who tweeted the screenshot is a militant communist

In the meantime, I found the tweet which seems to be the very first one tweeting the screenshot. This guy later added that the website is registered by an agency named Koalaweb, specialized in politics. Sounds like a joke to me but this guy included Baroin's twitter name in his very first tweet so he might be on to something?

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Paul the Wolf]

In the meantime, I found the tweet which seems to be the very first one tweeting the screenshot. This guy later added that the website is registered by an agency named Koalaweb, specialized in politics. Sounds like a joke to me but this guy included Baroin's twitter name in his very first tweet so he might be on to something?

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Maybe, but sarkozy2017.fr also exists

 

[Crossie]

Someone already set up a twitter handle https://twitter.com/Baroin2017_FR

Surely not by Baroin himself but I find it funny anyway.


@Paul the Wolf Since when is sarkozy2017.fr registered?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Someone already set up a twitter handle https://twitter.com/Baroin2017_FR

Surely not by Baroin himself but I find it funny anyway.


@Paul the Wolf Since when is sarkozy2017.fr registered?

I can't find out but if you go on the site you can see it is also a joke site

 

[Crossie]

Is this Baroin guy decent? I don't know anything about his positions, I just recalled his name as successor of Lagarde.

 

[Crossie]

I've been wondering what will happen if Le Pen refuses to repay the €300,000 of EU money she misused.Apparentlyy the EU reduce in such cases the monthly MEP salary up to 50% as long as necessary to get the money back. Hope she's long enough MEP to pay her debt .......

 

[devilish]

What are Le Pen's chances of winning?

 

[Raoul]

Looks like Vlad is up to his tricks in France now....

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Ubik]

First poll out since the allegations and Macron's into second on 22%, Fillon on 19% and Le Pen on 26%. You'd hope for some consolidation around Macron but all looks very unpredictable at this point.