Geopolitics

Sweet Square

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Have either of you ever actually been to an anti-Israel demo and seen some of the tripe that gets said by people waving the Palestinian flag? Often times seemingly having no direct links to Palestine? I have, and it's not a majority in fairness, but it's certainly a significant minority. (And yes, yes... There are exactly the same scum on the other side)

This is common sense when FIFA takes the stance of being apolitical. You're welcome to your views.
Wait until you hear some of opinions from the Ukrainian far right.
 

The Corinthian

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Have either of you ever actually been to an anti-Israel demo and seen some of the tripe that gets said by people waving the Palestinian flag? Often times seemingly having no direct links to Palestine? I have, and it's not a majority in fairness, but it's certainly a significant minority. (And yes, yes... There are exactly the same scum on the other side)

This is common sense when FIFA takes the stance of being apolitical. You're welcome to your views.
Oh sorry, I didn’t realise that Fifa would need to canvas what’s being said by every person at a rally to make a statement on where they stand. I’m glad they did that for the Ukraine/Russian fiasco though.
 

Fearless

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Wait until you hear some of opinions from the Ukrainian far right.

Speaking as 70,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, sparking global fears of an imminent invasion, Zelensky told the forum that Ukrainians and Jews were bonded by similar historical experiences.

“We know what it’s like not to have our own state,” Zelensky said. “We know what it means to defend one’s own state and land with weapons in hand, at the cost of our own lives. Both Ukrainians and Jews value freedom, and they work equally for the future of our states to become to our liking, and not the future which others want for us. Israel is often an example for Ukraine.”
 

Siorac

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The collapse of the Soviet Union was a very bad thing
Not for Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia... and so on.

Your article cites things like life expectancy: well, average Hungarian life expectancy was 69.20 in 1970, 69.33 in 1990 - and then 71.33 in 2000.
 

Sweet Square

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Speaking as 70,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, sparking global fears of an imminent invasion, Zelensky told the forum that Ukrainians and Jews were bonded by similar historical experiences.

“We know what it’s like not to have our own state,” Zelensky said. “We know what it means to defend one’s own state and land with weapons in hand, at the cost of our own lives. Both Ukrainians and Jews value freedom, and they work equally for the future of our states to become to our liking, and not the future which others want for us. Israel is often an example for Ukraine.”
Zelensky isn't on the far right of Ukraine politics.
 

groovyalbert

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Oh sorry, I didn’t realise that Fifa would need to canvas what’s being said by every person at a rally to make a statement on where they stand. I’m glad they did that for the Ukraine/Russian fiasco though.
It's hardly canvassing every person to acknowledge that there is deep-seated antisemitism amongst the pro-Palestine movement*. Hamas is openly antisemitic - and to be honest, antisemitic as a term doesn't really do justice to their feelings towards Jewish people, and Fatah have had a history of down-playing the Holocaust and other antisemitic tropes.

Again, not looking to downplay the hate that also sadly exists amongst sects of Israeli society/support all of Israeli's policies actions, but these hostilities are almost certainly at the core as to why you won't find the same levels of condemnation internationally/why this conflict is different to what's now going on in Ukraine.

Sadly, the cultural and religious divisions have only grown between Israeli and Palestine societies - it wasn't always like this, and you have had political parties on both sides look to benefit from it. Right now, you have a Russian army shelling Russian speaking communities because the Russians don't believe they're Russian enough.

* - obviously not everyone affiliated
 

hasanejaz88

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It's hardly canvassing every person to acknowledge that there is deep-seated antisemitism amongst the pro-Palestine movement*. Hamas is openly antisemitic - and to be honest, antisemitic as a term doesn't really do justice to their feelings towards Jewish people, and Fatah have had a history of down-playing the Holocaust and other antisemitic tropes.

Again, not looking to downplay the hate that also sadly exists amongst sects of Israeli society/support all of Israeli's policies actions, but these hostilities are almost certainly at the core as to why you won't find the same levels of condemnation internationally/why this conflict is different to what's now going on in Ukraine.

Sadly, the cultural and religious divisions have only grown between Israeli and Palestine societies - it wasn't always like this, and you have had political parties on both sides look to benefit from it. Right now, you have a Russian army shelling Russian speaking communities because the Russians don't believe they're Russian enough.

* - obviously not everyone affiliated
Ukraine military posts video of far-right neo nazi soliders pouring bullets in pork to shoot at Muslim soliders, calling them orcs

Oh that doesn't represent the majority, don't demonize Ukraine.

Some Palestinian protestors show anti-semitism, after taking into account a centuries long slow occupation of their land from Israel

The whole movement is anti-semetic, you can't take their side.
 

groovyalbert

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Ukraine military posts video of far-right neo nazi soliders pouring bullets in pork to shoot at Muslim soliders, calling them orcs

Oh that doesn't represent the majority, don't demonize Ukraine.

Some Palestinian protestors show anti-semitism, after taking into account a centuries long slow occupation of their land from Israel

The whole movement is anti-semetic, you can't take their side.
Sadly, it's not just "some" - it is evidenced through the stances - present and historical - of the two major political parties in Palestinian territories. This is a depressing reality of a conflict that has been going on for decades, pushing communities further and further apart. It's why it's different from what's going on in Ukraine now.
 

Sweet Square

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Surely more of a reason to fight tooth and nail to ensure he remains in a position of influence in Ukraine then.
We are posting on a football forum. Him staying in a position of influence will be down to how ''effective''(Literally murdering people) the Russian army is. Also wasn't his approval rating awful before the won, worth saying he was a tv comedian before this.

Anyways if people want to be consistent then if they ''support''(Again we are doing nothing more than posting)the struggle in Ukraine, they should also support the struggle in Palestine. Or people should at least be honest and admit they favour one over the other because this well actually this happened at some protest or this person in a movement said this etc, is so tiresome. And is nothing more than trying get out of what is a very easy answer.
 

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If people want to be consistent then if they ''support''(Again we are doing nothing more than posting)the struggle in Ukraine, they should also support the struggle in Palestine. Or people should at least be honest and admit they favour one over the other because this well actually this happened at some protest or this person in a movement said this etc, is so tiresome. As is nothing more than trying get out of what is a very easy answer.
Other way round.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a re-run the Soviet sponsored (and military supported) genocidal Arab invasions on Israel.
 

The Corinthian

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After the worst such attack in recent years—the massacre of 51 people in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2019—an arm of the Azov movement helped distribute the terrorist’s raving manifesto, in print and online, seeking to glorify his crimes and inspire others to follow. In the 16 years that followed the attacks of 9/11, far-right groups were responsible for nearly three-quarters of the 85 deadly extremist incidents that took place on American soil, according to a report published in 2017 by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

In their letter to the State Department in 2019, U.S. lawmakers noted that “the link between Azov and acts of terror in America is clear.” The Ukrainian authorities have also taken notice. In October, they deported two members of the Atomwaffen Division, a U.S.-based neo-Nazi group, who were trying to work with Azov to gain “combat experience,” according to a report in BuzzFeed News that cited two Ukrainian security officials.

Among Azov’s closest American allies has been the Rise Above Movement, or RAM, a far-right gang, some of whose members have been charged by the FBI with a series of violent attacks in California. The group’s leader, Robert Rundo, has said his idea for RAM came from Ukraine’s far-right scene. “This is always my whole inspiration for everything,” he told a right-wing podcast in September 2017, referring to Azov as “the future.” “They really have the culture out there,” he said. “They have their own clubs. They have their own bars. They have their own dress style.”
 

The Corinthian

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Other way round.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a re-run the Soviet sponsored (and military supported) genocidal Arab invasions on Israel.
:lol: What nonsense.
 

Smores

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We are posting on a football forum. Him staying in a position of influence will be down to how ''effective''(Literally murdering people) the Russian army is. Also wasn't his approval rating awful before the won, worth saying he was a tv comedian before this.

Anyways if people want to be consistent then if they ''support''(Again we are doing nothing more than posting)the struggle in Ukraine, they should also support the struggle in Palestine. Or people should at least be honest and admit they favour one over the other because this well actually this happened at some protest or this person in a movement said this etc, is so tiresome. And is nothing more than trying get out of what is a very easy answer.
They're not interested in those conflicts is the TLDR. They have principles we should start actual World War 3 over but how many will even suggest sanctioning Israel or Saudi Arabia for their crimes.
 

The Corinthian

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Sadly, it's not just "some" - it is evidenced through the stances - present and historical - of the two major political parties in Palestinian territories. This is a depressing reality of a conflict that has been going on for decades, pushing communities further and further apart. It's why it's different from what's going on in Ukraine now.
But it’s ok when it’s the anti semitic, far right Azov battalion?
 

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Speaking as 70,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, sparking global fears of an imminent invasion, Zelensky told the forum that Ukrainians and Jews were bonded by similar historical experiences.

“We know what it’s like not to have our own state,” Zelensky said. “We know what it means to defend one’s own state and land with weapons in hand, at the cost of our own lives. Both Ukrainians and Jews value freedom, and they work equally for the future of our states to become to our liking, and not the future which others want for us. Israel is often an example for Ukraine.”
Does this mean we can look forward to another apartheid state? Is there anyone the Ukrainians can oppress in a similar fashion?
 

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Does this mean we can look forward to another apartheid state? Is there anyone the Ukrainians can oppress in a similar fashion?
I think we should be careful before projecting Israel's war crimes to Ukraine, who haven't done anything of that sort or there is evidence that they will (hopefully the military will leave their Islamaphobia to that tweet).

The purpose of this debate should not be to demonize Ukraine, who are currently suffering, but rather focus on the double sided coverage of Ukraine vs Palestine/Yemen/Afghanistan/Iraq.
 

VidaRed

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If NATO attacks Russia then it's the end of humanity as we know it. So, yes, he is making shit up because he's losing Russian spheres of influence which will reflect badly him.
No he's not. Please read the MAD doctrine, it basically says both sides will be destroyed because regardless of whoever fires first the other will get a chance to retaliate. However, if nukes are launched from the front door so as to speak then theoretically russia doesn't get a chance to retaliate because moscow get nuked under 3 mins from ukraine. MAD doctrine will not be MAD if nato fires first while it will still be MAD if russia fires first on usa,uk,france,germany.
 

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They're not interested in those conflicts is the TLDR. They have principles we should start actual World War 3 over but how many will even suggest sanctioning Israel or Saudi Arabia for their crimes.
:lol:

Saw that post in the other thread. It's mad just how ready some are to end the world.
 

VidaRed

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I put a post on that thread regarding Indian and African students being manhandled and assaulted at the Ukraine-Polish border, by Ukranian soldiers and we had one poster denying any such thing happening to saying it was ok because Ukranian soldiers were tired and exhausted.
Anything that goes against the narrative set by the west govts didn't happen. What you are seeing live is a mass hypocrisy on steroids which mind you it hasn't gone unnoticed by non-whites!

This poses a lesson for India, if tomorrow we'd don't tow the western line then we'd be sanctioned too on there whims and fancies. We must promote rupay and upi domestically and then in asia unless we want to be stuck without any financial systems working. Unless we can manufacture the basis essentials we are fecked and our idiot of a pm has been in election mode since he was elected to do any of the actual work.
 
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groovyalbert

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They're not interested in those conflicts is the TLDR. They have principles we should start actual World War 3 over but how many will even suggest sanctioning Israel or Saudi Arabia for their crimes.
This is utter nonsense - I have said consistently that there are numerous actions Israel should be condemned for on here. But I have also outlined why you can't overly simplify and equate the two conflicts - each is defined by the cultural and historical setting they inhabit. Israel is far more powerful than Palestine and goes over and above to assert this. On the other side, Hamas' original 1988 Covenant outlines the justification for the murder of the Jews based almost entirely on the reasoning and arguments used by the Nazi Party. It's been updated since, you think that sentiment doesn't linger?

I don't really want to get too bogged down in this and derail an interesting thread concept, but the fear of what might happen coupled with the despair in what is, is why it's so imperative that both sides get to a position where there is both public and political will to achieve a two state solution. Sadly, poling on the matter suggests this is a pipe-dream at best.

But it’s ok when it’s the anti semitic, far right Azov battalion?
Of course not - but it's also probably not such a wide spread issue seeing as Ukraine elected a Jewish President.
 

VidaRed

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@Mciahel Goodman can you add this to the OP

John Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system.
 

Smores

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This is utter nonsense - I have said consistently that there are numerous actions Israel should be condemned for on here. But I have also outlined why you can't overly simplify and equate the two conflicts - each is defined by the cultural and historical setting they inhabit. Israel is far more powerful than Palestine and goes over and above to assert this. On the other side, Hamas' original 1988 Covenant outlines the justification for the murder of the Jews based almost entirely on the reasoning and arguments used by the Nazi Party. It's been updated since, you think that sentiment doesn't linger?

I don't really want to get too bogged down in this and derail an interesting thread concept, but the fear of what might happen coupled with the despair in what is, is why it's so imperative that both sides get to a position where there is both public and political will to achieve a two state solution. Sadly, poling on the matter suggests this is a pipe-dream at best.
I'm not sure why you've made my post all about you. I'm talking about the collective on the caf and wider public sentiment.

If people repeated a tenth of their outrage over the current conflict towards other such human tragedies then great lessons have been learnt. I guarantee that won't happen though.

Israel is taking land and oppressing people, there's no more nuance needed. It should be condemned and they should be sanctioned. We've seen that even boycotts against such behaviour have become unacceptable here in the west never mind massive backlash.

There should be some reflection and great shame felt that people have just dismissed other oppression due to geopolitics and media narratives.
 

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I'm not sure why you've made my post all about you. I'm talking about the collective on the caf and wider public sentiment.

If people repeated a tenth of their outrage over the current conflict towards other such human tragedies then great lessons have been learnt. I guarantee that won't happen though.

Israel is taking land and oppressing people, there's no more nuance needed. It should be condemned and they should be sanctioned. We've seen that even boycotts against such behaviour have become unacceptable here in the west never mind massive backlash.

There should be some reflection and great shame felt that people have just dismissed other oppression due to geopolitics and media narratives.
Again, you ignore the bigger picture.
To simply airbrush away that the Palestinian crisis is the direct consequence of failed, Soviet sponsored Arab invasions is absurd.
 

VidaRed

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When the public discourse turns to geopolitics, there are always at least two frames of reference in usage at any given moment. Firstly, you have the populist narrative which is given by the media in bitesize chunks for majority consumption (even if their goal was to educate and foster dissent rather than indoctrinate and manufacture consent, on which point I'm open to debate, the sheer volume of material they would have to cover almost debars such attempts). Most of the first frame is dominated by simplistic appeals to emotional sense (scholars of war propaganda will be familiar with the Belgian atrocity stories from the first world war and millions of others before and since). The second, always implicit, frame is geopolitical. Geopolitical strategists, like those who work at state departments around the world, do not live or think in the same frame as the majority of people who get their news from the "news". They instead study maps, troop movements, sociopolitical history, and financial markets. They play the "great game" as a mode of employment (it's what they do, after all). Here's the clash: we, the public, generally do not like to think of it in these terms but geopolitical strategists are not driven by morality but instead by what is optimal for any given state's interest. They speak in terms of the domination of one state (theirs) over another. So here is a good example, which is also prescient as it was written in the 1990s:



If you were to continue reading that book, you would understand that American planners (from all across the spectrum) conceive of conflicts like the current one in terms that are very different/completely removed from the moral frame of reference. They all understand themselves to be competing in the same arena (national/international dominance) and tend to use very similar language despite actual linguistic differences.


Another, related example, from the Financial Times today:




The above is interesting because it frames the first quotation. A lot of simultaneous actions which have many implications beyond any single country. The end of the dollar hegemony is the theme and China's longterm planning for it (understood twentyfive years ago) is the backdrop against which the author is reading the Russian invasion of Ukraine (a hastening or consecration of an inevitable shift in the world order).

The frame of reference for geopolitics is strictly amoral (with a few exceptions: morality is baked into the overall framework as in proportional response theory, but it sits in the background almost never being a forefront issue). As such, it has less to do with with what is right from a moralistic viewpoint and a lot more to do with what is right from a "might is right" point of view ("the strong do what they want, the weak do what they can", as Thucydides said, and that is roughly how state planners engaged in this frame of discourse still tend to think). Or, the dominance hierarchy.

That does not sit well with most people because we like to think that the moral order is primary and the rest is secondary. Reading the newspapers and watching the news, it is the moral frame which is active and the geopolitical is almost always left to the background or brought forward only insofar as it clarifies a given instance of justified morality. Moral views are much truer from a bottom up perspective (it's how we as people, or general public, tend to react) but not from the top down (people who more or less set the tone for political discourse do not think primarily in moral terms). So when people take a view of events from this frame, the one predominantly occupied by state departments, it comes across as amoral largely because it is, technically, amoral: an abstracted, elevated, frame of reference which seeks to understand events in context, both diachronic and synchronic. This does not mean the people are amoral, including state planners or the general person giving an opinion (me in this instance), it just means that two different frames of reference are in play and tend to come into conflict with each other (the reactionary frame criticizes the geopolitical/historical frame as seditious or uncaring and the geopolitical/historical frame criticises the reactionary frame as naive, or generally something along those lines). Often these views are not even mutually exclusive, but appear that way because the centre of one focus is decentered from another.

The point I'm making is probably already understood by most. I am making it here, as the start of a geopolitical thread, because I don't want to derail the Ukraine thread or any other thread with geopolitical "whataboutery" (which is in itself largely the product of two interrelated but temporally distinct frames of reference clashing). I think it's good to have a place where people can put historical and contextual arguments forward, though a live war thread dedicated to updates is definitely not the place for that. So I open this one instead for anyone with any long- or shortform contributions to make about any events that are happening but which contributions are too abstract for the tenor of the tone set by said event (updates are generally what is expected, and that is fair enough).

Not limited to any given conflict, past or present, so no "whataboutery" is possible. I'm primarily interested in understanding the order that is now emerging with Russia/China on one side and US/NATO on the other (with the rest of the world wedged between).

EDIT: This is quite a good video but would threaten to spill into whataboutery as soon as people begin to discuss it in depth and go back a hundred years in history (which is exactly what I mean by two frames that aren't necessarily in disagreement but conflict):
I'm beginning to wonder if the powers that be in the west are even listening to geopolitical strategists ?

From the west's point of view this antagonizing of russia makes absolutely zero sense and is infact against the wests own self interest. By antagonizing russia the west has essentially thrown russia into the chinese camp, the russians will stay in the chinese camp not voluntarily but out of compulsion. The way i see it the west gains nothing substantial by having ukraine in its fold whilst its a massive loss for russians. So whats the end goal of the west ? I just done see how this helps the west geopolitically. Sanctions on russia will also usher in countries moving away from global financial institutions controlled by the west and creation of a parallel system which would also hit the dollar since its hegemony as a universal currency will be challenged. The chinese must be laughing all the way to the bank!

Russia knows china is rising economically and militarily, it knows china has territorial claims on russian lands and it knows china has initiated border skirmishes with other countries. The west could have easily gotten russia onto its side and all it would have cost the west was a security guarantee to russia in stopping nato's expansion. With russia and india in the western camp, china could have been better "contained" since both countries border it. India has close ties with russia, if russia goes into the chinese camp it will try to persuade india to abandon the west and if the chinese give up all territorial claims on india then that could be a possibility.
 

The Corinthian

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Again, you ignore the bigger picture.
To simply airbrush away that the Palestinian crisis is the direct consequence of failed, Soviet sponsored Arab invasions is absurd.
You are deluded. Like genuinely deluded.
 

Smores

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Again, you ignore the bigger picture.
To simply airbrush away that the Palestinian crisis is the direct consequence of failed, Soviet sponsored Arab invasions is absurd.
You're no better than the crazies on Russia Today reasoning away terrible actions. Hopefully the Ukraine focus on such propaganda has made your own propoganda less palatable and we're spared it soon enough.
 

TMDaines

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Fair points. I guess it's a combination of the narrative (what you're alluding to in your second paragraph) with the general apathy seen in the west for atrocities that occur in Africa, and the Middle East that has left a sour taste in the mouth of a few people (myself included).
Surely this hypocrisy is reflected in other parts of the world, no? People are always going to be more deeply effected by events of greater (perceived) proximity? For the UK that largely means continental Europe, the US and the larger English-speaking countries or former countries of the Commonwealth. I won't be disingenuous and pretend that I am not more deeply effected by these recent events because of my Ukrainian family, but the events of this week would still stand alongside 9/11 and the start of the pandemic as the most "historic" in my lifetime. Obviously, others will have different parts of the world that feel "closer" to them based on their family background, languages spoken, etc.
 

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I'm beginning to wonder if the powers that be in the west are even listening to geopolitical strategists ?

From the west's point of view this antagonizing of russia makes absolutely zero sense and is infact against the wests own self interest. By antagonizing russia the west has essentially thrown russia into the chinese camp, the russians will stay in the chinese camp not voluntarily but out of compulsion. The way i see it the west gains nothing substantial by having ukraine in its fold whilst its a massive loss for russians. So whats the end goal of the west ? I just done see how this helps the west geopolitically. Sanctions on russia will also usher in countries moving away from global financial institutions controlled by the west and creation of a parallel system which would also hit the dollar since its hegemony as a universal currency will be challenged. The chinese must be laughing all the way to the bank!

Russia knows china is rising economically and militarily, it knows china has territorial claims on russian lands and it knows china has initiated border skirmishes with other countries. The west could have easily gotten russia onto its side and all it would have cost the west was a security guarantee to russia in stopping nato's expansion. With russia and india in the western camp, china could have been better "contained" since both countries border it. India has close ties with russia, if russia goes into the chinese camp it will try to persuade india to abandon the west and if the chinese give up all territorial claims on india then that could be a possibility.
I think there came a point when it was win/win for the West. If Russia backed down, Putin would look weak. If Russia invaded, they might get hit by a horrendous insurgency (will happen imo). China is rising (and so will India) but they all have self-interest at heart. I think it does seem like a mistake from the West to not take them into a common security framework, but the argument there is that Russia is too big a country and will not take orders from US (as every member or vassal state of NATO does). Reading more and more, this has been coming for a long time. Ukraine is vital to Russia and of secondary importance to the US. An East-West split seems inevitable. Russia taking the largely Russian speaking east into its territory and the remnants of some pro-EU western Ukraine government on the other. That would probably work for all sides (insofar as anything will work) if there is a neutrality pact.

The west have different sets of geostrategists. Kissinger one minute, Wolfowitz the next. There are hundreds of them and they won't all agree (if they did, NATO would not have expanded eastward). Also, if the US gets a militarized EU out of this (Germany spending 100 billion on weapons is a massive story that's going under the radar) it will also be a win. Also, the West just banking on India to follow its path and be anti-China is naive. India will set its own goals as it continues to rise economically (its middle class figures are on a leap trajectory over the next decade).
 

groovyalbert

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I'm not sure why you've made my post all about you. I'm talking about the collective on the caf and wider public sentiment.

If people repeated a tenth of their outrage over the current conflict towards other such human tragedies then great lessons have been learnt. I guarantee that won't happen though.

Israel is taking land and oppressing people, there's no more nuance needed. It should be condemned and they should be sanctioned. We've seen that even boycotts against such behaviour have become unacceptable here in the west never mind massive backlash.

There should be some reflection and great shame felt that people have just dismissed other oppression due to geopolitics and media narratives.
I'm sorry, but there just is. Israel's actions are rightfully open to criticism and actually are exposed more than you suggest - albeit not necessarily through the actors you're alluding to. But I'm not going to start defending them.

Yet to say there's no more nuance needed is to overlook some seriously terrifying elements of an ideology which has genuine links to Nazi philosophy, and sadly has a presence in the political decision making space. Whilst that exists, it's going to be very difficult for Liberal Democracies of the West to out-rightly take a stance.
 

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I think there came a point when it was win/win for the West. If Russia backed down, Putin would look weak. If Russia invaded, they might get hit by a horrendous insurgency (will happen imo). China is rising (and so will India) but they all have self-interest at heart. I think it does seem like a mistake from the West to not take them into a common security framework, but the argument there is that Russia is too big a country and will not take orders from US (as every member or vassal state of NATO does). Reading more and more, this has been coming for a long time. Ukraine is vital to Russia and of secondary importance to the US. An East-West split seems inevitable. Russia taking the largely Russian speaking east into its territory and the remnants of some pro-EU western Ukraine government on the other. That would probably work for all sides (insofar as anything will work) if there is a neutrality pact.

The west have different sets of geostrategists. Kissinger one minute, Wolfowitz the next. There are hundreds of them and they won't all agree (if they did, NATO would not have expanded eastward). Also, if the US gets a militarized EU out of this (Germany spending 100 billion on weapons is a massive story that's going under the radar) it will also be a win. Also, the West just banking on India to follow its path and be anti-China is naive. India will set its own goals as it continues to rise economically (its middle class figures are on a leap trajectory over the next decade).
Agree with this. Didn't Yeltsin ask to join NATO?
 

Mciahel Goodman

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Agree with this. Didn't Yeltsin ask to join NATO?
Apparently so (but informal, like the declaration Gorbachev received from Bush administration). There were talks about Russia joining some kind of common security framework, even if outside NATO (as again the US suspected, probably rightly, that Russia will not be bossed around) and then Putin apparently tried to revive these talks at the beginning of his tenure (but how far you believe what he says is another thing).
 

Fearless

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Apparently so (but informal, like the declaration Gorbachev received from Bush administration). There were talks about Russia joining some kind of common security framework, even if outside NATO (as again the US suspected, probably rightly, that Russia will not be bossed around) and then Putin apparently tried to revive these talks at the beginning of his tenure (but how far you believe what he says is another thing).
Makes you wonder where we'd be if this had actually happened.
 

Cheimoon

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I thought the Novosti article allegedly published in error which was posted in the thread was interesting for how it reflected to a considerable degree some of the core assumptions underlying Huntington’s famous Clash of Civilizations. My instinct has always been to pick holes in the thesis with the consequence that enough hole-picking naturally undermines it entirely. And god knows it’s full of holes. But stuff like this makes me wonder if I’ve missed the point a bit, and that it’s the belief in the Clash that makes it real, a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, although not one created by Huntington himself.
Isn't that the case with most ideas though? It doesn't matter how true they are, it matters how true they are perceived to be, and how widely adopted they are. You can apply that anywhere.

Take climate change as an obvious example: there is no doubt in the science on what's happening and what needs to be done, and there hasn't been for some 20 years (at least on the key points); yet that hasn't stopped influential people from adopting all kinds of counter-theories and act accordingly. (And here I'm talking of people acting upon theories that explained climate change away, such as sun spot nonsense; not people that acknowledge climate change is real but try to downplay it or are just dragging their feet.) And so the alternative theories were 'true', in the sense of their impact on the world.

Same for Huntington - with the addition that I think what he wrote wasn't even new at the time, just a well-put, full articulation (and re-articulation in important ways; it's very 19th century - but you know that stuff much better than me :) ) of existing ideas - and very common ones at that, in the minds of key military and political people, or others with geopolitical influence. And that makes it circular as well, cause by acting upon this idea, you create or confirm or strenghten geopolitical divisions, allowing you your 'told you so' moment.
 
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Pintu

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True - although the club also hasn't waved Ukraine flags right?

I guess the Palestine issue is sort of unique given its specific history/situation/various connotations the flag may have. Although I doubt a club would receive similar responses for waving Israeli flags.
What connotations does it have? Fans of a scottish club waving palestinian flags in a game against an islandic club ?

Yes Israeli flag are systematically waived by the Ajax fans and they are not fined for it. Thankfully. Israel’s flag represent the state of Israel and the population. For me -and clearly for UEFA as well- that flag doesn’t represent the apartheid policies or the countless war crimes committed by their army.

Apart from the pro-apartheid lobby in Europe being very powerfull and capable of linking everything to Hamas, the Palestinian flag should be seen as representative of the Palestinian population. Nothing more.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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No he's not. Please read the MAD doctrine, it basically says both sides will be destroyed because regardless of whoever fires first the other will get a chance to retaliate. However, if nukes are launched from the front door so as to speak then theoretically russia doesn't get a chance to retaliate because moscow get nuked under 3 mins from ukraine. MAD doctrine will not be MAD if nato fires first while it will still be MAD if russia fires first on usa,uk,france,germany.
I'm familiar with MAD and also familiar with Death Hand, which is rumoured to still be operational. Plus every nuclear nation has submarines that will remain operational, ready to launch dozens of nukes in retalliation.

Putin has no compelling justification for his invasion.