Geopolitics

[Dr. Dwayne]

Is this the thread where this video posted in the other thread can be discussed?

Taken purely at face value for the benefit of discussion (playing the devils advocate of sorts), listening to what Putin says in this video, is he really very wrong to be concerned with Ukraine becoming a beneficiary of weapons from NATO (as a member or not)?

Yes there are other NATO members in close proximity, but does that mean he can afford to have more adversaries?

If NATO attacks Russia then it's the end of humanity as we know it. So, yes, he is making shit up because he's losing Russian spheres of influence which will reflect badly him.

 

[Cheimoon]

That thread(and online in general)gives off a vibe of people treating the current war like a tv show.

Posters commenting “let’s go!” under tweets of burnt out Russian tanks(Which presumably had dead people inside)like it’s a video game speedrun. The fake hysteria over nuclear war(If someone genuinely believed nuclear mega death was going to happen within days then why the feck are they spending their final hours posting on a football forum ?)or the whataboustism shite which is just posters getting annoyed someone might be taking their attention away from the “main event”.

It’s very gross and very stupid.

Exactly. I don't want to paint everyone in that thread with the same brush, obviously; but I think there is a clear disconnect between the fascination with war and geopolitics, and the realization of the horrible impact these actually have to people on the ground.

I for my part find the apathy to the suffering some are displaying pathetic. Justifying that apathy through suffering elsewhere at another time caused by other people as if the Ukranians had anything to do with it so mindbendingly stupid i'm not even willing to argue it.

People show their real character in times like these.

Not sure what this refers to. But what I am thinking: one can perfectly well care deeply about Ukranian suffering in private, but find it more interesting to discuss the historical context on this forum. That makes sense to me. Just as, vice versa, people posting about events going well for Ukraine don't necessarily actually care about the suffering one way or another. I just wouldn't read too much about people's full feelings based on posts on here that don't actually discuss those.

For example, on this follow-up post of yours:

Yeah great job using Ukranian, Afgahn, Yemenite and Iraqi deaths to establish their own moral superiority while doing feck all.

I applaud them. With Vomit.

Are you really trying to argue that people posting about the events 'do more' than people posting about context? What is the actual contribution to the Ukraine war of anyone on this conflict, apart from providing information? Which the others also do, just from a different viewpoint? (I am obvioulsy not including those that actually set up charities and donate money. That clearly is a more real contribution.)

Small tip: paragraphs would improve the readability of your post.

And yeah, the hypocricy is obvious and also deliberate, people know damn well that they're being hypocritical.

I don't know what the solution is though, I doubt we will ever have hypocricy-free media coverage.

I like text stuff, so on that first point: it depends where you're reading. I'm on a computer now, and like his paragraph (good length), and less that every sentence is a paragraph in your post. (I know that's stylistically in vogue now, but I don't like that overall trend either.) I'd probably want something in between when reading on my phone though. But anyway.

 

[Spoony]

I think it's great. @Mciahel Goodman has accidentally created a 'Is the Ukraine thread safe to go in to yet?' thread.

 

[iKnowNothing]

If NATO attacks Russia then it's the end of humanity as we know it. So, yes, he is making shit up because he's losing Russian spheres of influence which will reflect badly him.

Err.. isn’t “sphere of influence” what US, Russia and other countries aim for, to varying degrees? And by having weapons posted in Ukraine, isn’t the US/NATO increasing their “sphere of influence”? So is Putin wrong in trying to reduce that? (Of course he should have done this through diplomacy and not war - before someone accuses me of supporting this war)

 

[Interval]

I for my part find the apathy to the suffering some are displaying pathetic. Justifying that apathy through suffering elsewhere at another time caused by other people as if the Ukranians had anything to do with it so mindbendingly stupid i'm not even willing to argue it.

People show their real character in times like these.

This is patently untrue. I think there are two types of discussion that are worth having that are particularly the most impacted by “don’t indulge in ANY topic that distracts us from bashing Russia.”

(1) There is a clear European bent to opinions. That leads to a limited talk and dismissive attitudes towards anything that resembles a non party view. People living in India, Middle East, Latam aren’t exactly directly impacted by this and yet participate in the thread because they’re truly appalled by what’s happening. I myself want a bomb to fall on that ding bats head. But that doesn’t mean that our culturally different POVs on some issues are wrong because we view it as a third party. And yes, it’s related to this war and it’s a discussion worth having. For instance, why is it unfair to attribute this completely toPutin but also discuss dangers of EU arming Ukraine to the teeth. Or how many years of apathy by the west to the mad man including taking advantage of Russian money in western democracies has partly caused this?

(2) there are many secondary war related offshoots that are to be discussed. Many Indians have pointed out of the rough handling at thehands of border police. It’s usually met withderision because it seems hardly relevant to the audience in the larger scheme of things. Labelled as propaganda or whataboutery. But it isn’t. It’s also a fair topic to discuss how refugees including a Americans and others are crossing over and Indians and Africans are struggling.

it may not be important to many people. But it’s important to understand that culturally we are different. What Keeps is common is the love for all, humanity, peace and freedom. And for us, some of these issues are also important since we are looking at “two parties” at play here rather than one.

again, not to say Putin isn’t a dick and isn’t the big bad wolf in this situation. Our values are deeply shaped by the west because of access to tv shows,football and these forums. Can someone else’s position be less black and white and understandably so? Yes. And it’s okay. It should be allowed.

 

[Smores]

If NATO attacks Russia then it's the end of humanity as we know it. So, yes, he is making shit up because he's losing Russian spheres of influence which will reflect badly him.

That's true for China and the US but they'll still be concerns about each others forces or bases. Standard geopolitics is your military grows with your economy and land and that countries perceive potential threats rather than immediate ones.

Obviously with Russia their economy doesn't match their perceived importance but they still believe themselves a superpower so would still evaluate threats accordingly. China isn't anymore of a threat to the US than NATO is to Russia at least not significantly.

It's all ridiculous and i don't agree with any such defensive posturing but it's non unusual that Russia would perceive NATO a threat. Their reaction on the other hand.....

 

[Abizzz]

This is patently untrue. I think there are two types of discussion that are worth having that are particularly the most impacted by “don’t indulge in ANY topic that distracts us from bashing Russia.”

(1) There is a clear European bent to opinions. That leads to a limited talk and dismissive attitudes towards anything that resembles a non party view. People living in India, Middle East, Latam aren’t exactly directly impacted by this and yet participate in the thread because they’re truly appalled by what’s happening. I myself want a bomb to fall on that ding bats head. But that doesn’t mean that our culturally different POVs on some issues are wrong because we view it as a third party. And yes, it’s related to this war and it’s a discussion worth having. For instance, why is it unfair to attribute this completely toPutin but also discuss dangers of EU arming Ukraine to the teeth. Or how many years of apathy by the west to the mad man including taking advantage of Russian money in western democracies has partly caused this?

(2) there are many secondary war related offshoots that are to be discussed. Many Indians have pointed out of the rough handling at thehands of border police. It’s usually met withderision because it seems hardly relevant to the audience in the larger scheme of things. Labelled as propaganda or whataboutery. But it isn’t. It’s also a fair topic to discuss how refugees including a Americans and others are crossing over and Indians and Africans are struggling.

it may not be important to many people. But it’s important to understand that culturally we are different. What Keeps is common is the love for all, humanity, peace and freedom. And for us, some of these issues are also important since we are looking at “two parties” at play here rather than one.

again, not to say Putin isn’t a dick and isn’t the big bad wolf in this situation. Our values are deeply shaped by the west because of access to tv shows,football and these forums. Can someone else’s position be less black and white and understandably so? Yes. And it’s okay. It should be allowed.

I genuinly don't understand what that has to do with the comment you quoted. Of course others are entitled to their point of view. And yes it's horrible when refugees are turned away, regardless of nationality or ethnicity. I completely agree with that.

I'm talking about those who are so blinkered that their first reaction to a Russian invasion of Ukraine is to establish their own moral superiority by belittling anyone they themeselves have decided are hypocrites. Without knowing anything about them, and in most cases knowing feck all in general about most of anything.

 

[golden_blunder]

Having worked with lots of staff from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia (and a few Ukrainians), I have yet to meet one who has anything good to say about living under Russian rule or communism. In fact quite a few would go off on one about how badly they were treated through the years.
so I’m not surprised that they all wanT NATO protection. We’ve all seen in Georgia etc how Russia just does what they want.
so I’ve no sympathy or empathy with Russia at all

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

If NATO attacks Russia then it's the end of humanity as we know it. So, yes, he is making shit up because he's losing Russian spheres of influence which will reflect badly him.

Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia. Ukraine’s loss of independence would have immediate consequences for Central Europe, transforming Poland into the geopolitical pivot on the eastern frontier of a united Europe.
...
A policy for a united Europe will also have to address—though jointly with the Europeans—the highly sensitive issue of Europe’s geographic scope. How far eastward should the European Union extend? And should the eastern limits of the EU be synonymous with the eastern front line of NATO? The former is more a matter for a European decision, but a European decision on that issue will have direct implications for a NATO decision. The latter, however, engages the United States, and the U.S. voice in NATO is still decisive. Given the growing consensus regarding the desirability of admitting the nations of Central Europe into both the EU and NATO, the practical meaning of this question focuses attention on the future status of the Baltic republics and perhaps also that of Ukraine.

Brezezinski's analysis in 1997 covers each point (the Russia as wanting to be imperial power and the Russia which might respond to NATO/EU expansion even if it isn't an expansionist power).

 

[VorZakone]

I think the fundamental problem is long-term trust. It's fair to say that NATO as of now is not threatening to Russia. Russia does not have to fear the current NATO. It doesn't have to fear Ukraine either.

In 100 years that situation might be different. Who knows if in 100 years through climate crises the EU-countries find themselves in desperate need for Russian natural resources and are thinking of war to capture it. The Russia of that moment might think "damn we have no buffer anymore".

And before I get jumped: no, I'm not condoning Putin's Russia.
But telling them that Europe is no threat to them so there's no need to worry, they will counter you with "will that be the same in 100 years?". What are you going to say that makes them trust you?

 

[Sky1981]

I've been thinking. What's the opposite end of whataboutism? Nihilism? Absolutism?

Where everything is only possible as black or white.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Err.. isn’t “sphere of influence” what US, Russia and other countries aim for, to varying degrees? And by having weapons posted in Ukraine, isn’t the US/NATO increasing their “sphere of influence”? So is Putin wrong in trying to reduce that? (Of course he should have done this through diplomacy and not war - before someone accuses me of supporting this war)

Ukraine is free to decide whose spehere of influence it wants to be a part of and by associating itslf with NATO and the EU its clearly choosing a freer society that what they have experienced in the past with Russia and would experience under Putin's boot today.

 

[RedTiger]

Maybe those warmongering arseholes from Chechnya should have stayed home, then?

Chechens being warmongering dogs doesn't take away from the fact the Azov units are neo Nazis with a history of extreme behaviours. Just because you hate one group doesn't mean the other group gets absolved, that would be like you loving the Al Nusra front because they gave Asad a beating. It doesn't matter on what side the cnuts are, all the cnuts need to be called out.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

That's true for China and the US but they'll still be concerns about each others forces or bases. Standard geopolitics is your military grows with your economy and land and that countries perceive potential threats rather than immediate ones.

Obviously with Russia their economy doesn't match their perceived importance but they still believe themselves a superpower so would still evaluate threats accordingly. China isn't anymore of a threat to the US than NATO is to Russia at least not significantly.

It's all ridiculous and i don't agree with any such defensive posturing but it's non unusual that Russia would perceive NATO a threat. Their reaction on the other hand.....

Russia's problem is that it wants to retake the former Soviet Republics and NATO expanding eastward complicates that. IF these countries become part of NATO they can;t simply send in that tanks and reestablish control as they are trying to do in Ukraine right now.

 

[Sweet Square]

Having worked with lots of staff from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia (and a few Ukrainians), I have yet to meet one who has anything good to say about living under Russian rule or communism. In fact quite a few would go off on one about how badly they were treated through the years.
so I’m not surprised that they all wanT NATO protection. We’ve all seen in Georgia etc how Russia just does what they want.
so I’ve no sympathy or empathy with Russia at all

The collapse of the Soviet Union was a very bad thing

The transition to market economies in many post-communist societies of the former Soviet Union and other former eastern bloc countries in Europe has a produced a “demographic collapse,” a recent report by the United Nations Development Programme has found. Among the most serious findings is a four year drop in life expectancy among Russian men since 1980, from 62 years to 58.

The development programme’s report also noted significant drops in life expectancy in Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania. The immediate cause of the rising mortality, said the report, is the “rise in self-destructive behaviour, especially among men.” Old problems such as alcoholism have increased; drug misusea relatively new problem in the former communist blochas risen dramatically in recent years. The report Transition 1999 stated that suicide rates have climbed steeply too, by 60%in Russia, 80%in Lithuania, and 95%in Latvia since 1989.

But behind the self destructive behaviour, the authors say, are economic factors, including rising poverty rates, unemployment, financial insecurity, and corruption. Whereas only 4%of the population of the region had incomes equivalent to $4 (£2.50) a day or less in 1988, that figure had climbed to 32%by 1994. In addition, the transition to a market economy has been accompanied by lower living standards (including poorer diets), a deterioration in social services, and major cutbacks in health spending.

“What we are arguing,” said Omar Noman, an economist for the development fund and one of the report’s contributors, “is that the transition to market economies [in the region] is the biggest … killer we have seen in the 20th century, if you take out famines and wars. The sudden shock and what it did to the system … has effectively meant that five million [Russian men’s] lives have been lost in the 1990s.” Using Britain and Japanwith their ratio of 96 men to every 100 womenas the base population, the report’s authors have calculated that there are now some 9.6 million “missing men” in the former communist bloc. “The typical patterns are that a man loses his job and develops a drinking problem,” said Mr Noman. “The women then leave and the men die, first emotionally and then physically.”

Overall, the Russian death rate from accidentsmost of them involving alcohol has risen 83% since 1991.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116380/

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Chechens being warmongering dogs doesn't take away from the fact the Azov units are neo Nazis with a history of extreme behaviours. Just because you hate one group doesn't mean the other group gets absolved, that would be like you loving the Al Nusra front because they gave Asad a beating. It doesn't matter on what side the cnuts are, all the cnuts need to be called out.

And those are terrible ideals for some of them to hold but when a group of men with a lust for blood and brutality travel nearly 2000km to engage in a war they have no business being involved in, I'll hold my nose and root for the guys defending their homeland against an unjust invasion and hope they send every single one of those mercenary bastards to hell.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

the transition to market economies [in the region] is the biggest … killer we have seen in the 20th century, if you take out famines and wars

FFS. Omar please.

 

[RedTiger]

And those are terrible ideals for some of them to hold but when a group of men with a lust for blood and brutality travel nearly 2000km to engage in a war they have no business being involved in, I'll hold my nose and root for the guys defending their homeland against an unjust invasion and hope they send every single one of those mercenary bastards to hell.

You of all people backing a Neo Nazi unit in my 35 years of following geopolitical conflicts I have never backed a cnut even if their immediate goals aligned with mine.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

You of all people backing a Neo Nazi unit in my 35 years of following geopolitical conflicts I have never backed a cnut even if their immediate goals aligned with mine.

My apologies, I'm not thrilled about this position it's just my dislike of Kadyrov, his cronies and his warlords goes that much deeper. The Azov battalion is far-right with some neo-Nazi elements. Neo-Nazis are extremely distasteful but their power and influence is limited. Kadyrov on the other hand has been frequently accused of involvement in the kidnapping, assassination, and torture of human rights activists, critics, and their relatives, within both Chechnya as well as in other regions of the Russian Federation and abroad, through the political use of police and military forces. He is Chechnya, not just one battalion and has been charged with crimes against humanity.

https://www.them.us/story/chechen-leaders-crimes-against-humanity-over-anti-lgbtq-purge

 

[hasanejaz88]

What I find absolutely shocking about this is that Sky News were showing, and glorying, a session Ukrainians were having on how to make a molotav cocktail, while these same people would defend Israeli soldiers for shooting at Palestinians because they had rocks thrown at them.

It's fecking grotesque the clear racism and insensitivity being shown by news broadcasters during this time. Russia can get fecked, but so can the US and UK.

 

[RedTiger]

The Azov battalion is far-right with some neo-Nazi elements. Neo-Nazis are extremely distasteful but their power and influence is limited.

I'm completely aware of the Kadyrovists and their history and tactics, as I said I've been following this geopolitical bullshit over 35 years, you really don't need to preach to the choir concerning the Chechens. Your post above though is too simplistic in that you fail to accept that even though they might not have "power", all they need is acceptance and legitimacy and they'll have the foot in the door that they crave. It doesn't matter who the feck they are fighting, they need to be shunned from the Ukrainian resistance like islamists are shunned from legitimate resistances.

 

[The Corinthian]

What I find absolutely shocking about this is that Sky News were showing, and glorying, a session Ukrainians were having on how to make a molotav cocktail, while these same people would defend Israeli soldiers for shooting at Palestinians because they had rocks thrown at them.

It's fecking grotesque the clear racism and insensitivity being shown by news broadcasters during this time. Whole football teams being drapped with Ukraine flags while Celtic were fined for a group of fans showing Palestinian flags. Russia can get fecked, but so can the US and UK.

Yea, it's definitely difficult to stomach some of the double standards here.

I recall Ozil making a good statement about the Uighur community when he was still at Arsenal and he was fined and the club had to apologise.

Imagine he made a statement about Ukraine? He'd get praised (and rightfully so). The double standards organisations / footy clubs / media takes leaves a bad taste.

 

[hasanejaz88]

Yea, it's definitely difficult to stomach some of the double standards here.

I recall Ozil making a good statement about the Uighur community when he was still at Arsenal and he was fined and the club had to apologise.

Imagine he made a statement about Ukraine? He'd get praised (and rightfully so). The double standards organisations / footy clubs / media takes leaves a bad taste.

Can you imagine if a team drapped themselves in Palestinan flags during another round of violence? They would get banned from European competition.

Russia is banned from the World Cup for invading Ukraine, while they were allowed to host the fecking Olympics while they were busy invading Afghanistan.

 

[Sweet Square]

Exactly. I don't want to paint everyone in that thread with the same brush, obviously; but I think there is a clear disconnect between the fascination with war and geopolitics, and the realization of the horrible impact these actually have to people on the ground.

This is pretty spot on imo

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[calodo2003]

I think it's great. @Mciahel Goodman has accidentally created a 'Is the Ukraine thread safe to go in to yet?' thread.

 

[calodo2003]

This is pretty spot on imo

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‘Marvel-isation’ is a perfect term.

 

[Conor]

This is pretty spot on imo

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There will 100% be 'Top 10 moments of the Ukraine war' compilation up on YouTube soon, along with react responses.

 

[SalfordRed18]

That thread(and online in general)gives off a vibe of people treating the current war like a tv show.

Posters commenting “let’s go!” under tweets of burnt out Russian tanks(Which presumably had dead people inside)like it’s a video game speedrun. The fake hysteria over nuclear war(If someone genuinely believed nuclear mega death was going to happen within days then why the feck are they spending their final hours posting on a football forum ?)or the whataboustism shite which is just posters getting annoyed someone might be taking their attention away from the “main event”.

It’s very gross and very stupid.

Agree with all of this.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I'm completely aware of the Kadyrovists and their history and tactics, as I said I've been following this geopolitical bullshit over 35 years, you really don't need to preach to the choir concerning the Chechens. Your post above though is too simplistic in that you fail to accept that even though they might not have "power", all they need is acceptance and legitimacy and they'll have the foot in the door that they crave. It doesn't matter who the feck they are fighting, they need to be shunned from the Ukrainian resistance like islamists are shunned from legitimate resistances.

The good thing is that people don't tend to give them that acceptance and legitimacy, even if they ignore the bad parts during difficult moments such as this. They are a part of the Ukranian armed forces serving a Jewish President and we can hope that something is done about them once the Russians and their mercenaries are ousted.

 

[Deery]

This is pretty spot on imo

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Always somebody making up complaining about something, annoys the pish outa me.

 

[BluesJr]

Always somebody making up complaining about something, annoys the pish outa me.

Elaborate?

 

[shamans]

Having worked with lots of staff from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia (and a few Ukrainians), I have yet to meet one who has anything good to say about living under Russian rule or communism. In fact quite a few would go off on one about how badly they were treated through the years.
so I’m not surprised that they all wanT NATO protection. We’ve all seen in Georgia etc how Russia just does what they want.
so I’ve no sympathy or empathy with Russia at all

I haven't found anyone who sympathizes with Russia rather folks like me who are frustrated at similar things being ignored across the world when it's other countries being bullied into submission.

If that's whataboutism or not, it doesn't matter to me. It's hypocrisy so I call it out. Also, yes I'm aware there's a time and place but there were a few weird comments on the other thread and in the news about how this is a bigger deal because Ukraine is an actual civilized country. It just, in my opinion, adds to the idea of poorer and less privileged people not feeling pain the same way.

 

[Deery]

Elaborate?

There’s always some prick on Twitter accusing someone of this or that and now you can’t even show opposition to a war without not having enough empathy. It’s ridiculous getting.

 

[BluesJr]

There’s always some prick on Twitter accusing someone of this or that and now you can’t even show opposition to a war without not having enough empathy. It’s ridiculous getting.

I get that but that tweet is completely spot on.

 

[Pintu]

It just, in my opinion, adds to the idea of poorer and less privileged people not feeling pain the same way.

Someone literally said this on American tv.

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He chose his words carefully , what if he didnt choose his words carefully?

 

[Deery]

I get that but that tweet is completely spot on.

I don’t think it is, the platform has been very good at getting information across, people want to know what’s going on it’s human nature to be concerned.

 

[BluesJr]

I don’t think it is, the platform has been very good at getting information across, people want to know what’s going on it’s human nature to be concerned.

There's plenty out there getting giddy when Russians are being killed and treating it like a sport though, which is what he's getting at.

 

[Deery]

There's plenty out there getting giddy when Russians are being killed and treating it like a sport though, which is what he's getting at.

There will always be idiots in society I suppose I’ve just learned to live with that.

 

[rotherham_red]

There's someone in that other thread who jumped to the defence of literal Nazis on the Ukrainian side with the excuse of "they're at fecking war"... It was at that point I clocked out.

The funny thing is, I work for a huge international development organisation who was one of the first humanitarian organisations to react to the conflict in Ukraine. And today my whole day was focused on developing a proposal that was 6-figures and focused entirely on our emergency response in the country. What I said was not out of apparent 'whataboutery', but genuine concern.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I haven't found anyone who sympathizes with Russia rather folks like me who are frustrated at similar things being ignored across the world when it's other countries being bullied into submission.

If that's whataboutism or not, it doesn't matter to me. It's hypocrisy so I call it out. Also, yes I'm aware there's a time and place but there were a few weird comments on the other thread and in the news about how this is a bigger deal because Ukraine is an actual civilized country. It just, in my opinion, adds to the idea of poorer and less privileged people not feeling pain the same way.

Civilized is a really poor choice of words and I hope that everyone who's used it in reference to this conflict gets some form of comeuppance.

Are biases at play? Absolutely, yes. Ukrainians look like most people in Europe, Canada and the US. They have the same system of government and economies. They could be us. That's why this is hitting harder on the news cycle. Finally, tanks and APCs from one country have not been used on another nation in Europe for a long time. That adds to the shock, despite the terrible events that took place after the collapse of Yuogslavia.

All we can do is hope that the resolution of this conflict leads to more action on other conflicts that are more complex.