How good are you at assessing the potential of young players?

[NicolaSacco]

@NicolaSacco I like this thread.

How good am I? As people have said, that Harry Redknapp interview was brutally true, fans don't get to see anything behind the scenes so it's hard to know how good a youth player is. So all we get is the pro games to judge, so the few games we see are IT.

However I remember seeing Xavi play us in 1999 and thinking after 1 game that kid was gonna be special. And then Fabregas against us for Arsenal and being sad because I just knew he'd be an incredible player. But that's confirmation bias: I don't know how many players I've gotten "wrong" in that way of thinking.

But I've not had that feeling about any of the players that made their debut for us, like Chong, Iqbal, etc. Even Januzaj I always felt in the back of my mind he would be too slow to make it: with Ronaldo and his debut he was tall and FAST, so even if you don't have the skill you can hurt people... And he had the skill too.

The one modern player I've felt has that sort of weird ability is Billy Gilmour but Chelsea got rid of him so maybe my radar was off on that one after all .

Thanks man!

It’s pretty impressive that you mention Xavi. His style of play doesn’t exactly lend itself to early recognition of talent. Which probably brings another question: what position and style of play are easiest to recognise greatness in early? I mean, no one should get too much Kudos for recognising that a 17 yr old Michael Owen would be as good as he was. But a 17 yr old Scholes? Modric? It’s nowhere near as clear cut.

 

[Borys]

We as football fans overrate massively players who operate the ball in aesthetic way. It's far easier to fall into that trap in for example preseason games. People tend to mix this with high technical skills and assume this guy will make it on serious level. I did that mistake with Januzaj, I was absolutely convinced he will kill it. It even seemed this might be the case for a while.

I believe I am better at seeing failures actually. I predicted Pogba and Sabitzer to be failures, next prediction is Antony. But I also thought Sancho will be a big hit under Ten Hag so yeah. And Welbeck in SAF era, he seemed like he could reach top level but somehow it never clicked.

 

[jadaba]

Yeah I'm totally useless at it, my perception can be influenced by things as ridiculous as how exciting a player's name sounds phonetically. But I do wonder how good actual scouts are at this. I'd wager a guess that they're not actively searching for the next superstar based on any remarkable ball control they demonstrate as a young player, it'd be as foolish as trying to win the lottery. Rather I imagine that they're looking for a style of players who seem like they'd fit into whichever direction extended footballing shifts/tactics are heading.

 

[GazTheLegend]

Thanks man!

It’s pretty impressive that you mention Xavi. His style of play doesn’t exactly lend itself to early recognition of talent. Which probably brings another question: what position and style of play are easiest to recognise greatness in early? I mean, no one should get too much Kudos for recognising that a 17 yr old Michael Owen would be as good as he was. But a 17 yr old Scholes? Modric? It’s nowhere near as clear cut.

It might sound stupid but for whatever reason I found it easier to see greatness in the midield players. Just those little neat and tidy guys that never lost the ball. For some reason I remember I think Ron Atkinson of all people commenting on what a player Xavi seemed to be. He played at Old Trafford at 17 or so and just seemed absolutely at ease. It was something special.

I think personally it's easier to see brilliance in wide forward players / wingers... But I love Traore and Saint-Maximin. I'm convinced that Wilfrid Zaha would have been a world beater for Sir Alex Ferguson. Arguably one of Moyes mistakes perception wise was prioritising Januzaj and sidelining Zaha. But we will never know. I think the career Zaha has gone on to have is fine but maybe there should have been more.

Back to the midfield players - Mainoo impressed me with the limited minutes I've seen him play. Not seen him play tonight but the one time I saw him he looked a league above some of the other youth players we've got. Just that comfort on the ball.

 

[El-Manos]

Januzaj was my big mistake. Honestly thought he was going to be a world beater here.

 

[DON’T PANIC ™]

I was convinced Ryan Tunnicliff was the next Roy Keane, so that where I’m at.

 

[buchansleftleg]

Personally I think it's nigh on impossible to predict because of the folly of youth...they can just decide to feck their own careers up at any time....as we have seen.

I think there is also something pretty rotten in the football played in reserves / U23's that doesn't prepare players for life in Premier league.

I gave up watching the U23's play because so many other teams just tried to kick lumps out of United players....then under Mourinho we started to join in the kicking too.

I think English football is particularly bad at developing youth talent compared to France, Spain and Germany. Recent English successes in youth football should be setting us up for success at senior level....just watch how the FA will feck that up in the next few years.

 

[Fortitude]

I think this thread misses certain distinctions, which are essential and what the majority are not privy to. How good are you at assessing kids on your telebox in a few 90min showings? Is different to: How good are you assessing kids you're watching from the stadium, live where you can focus on them and only them for the entirety of the preamble, game and post match? Which is again different to: How good are you at assessing these Pokémon you're working with day in and day out? So stating the gulf between pros doing the latter and the layman doing the first has no value.

There's also nuance between the above as studying players from fledglings in the academy to watching them as very young pros is also a distinction.

Since the game has become broken and bastardised there aren't many who even bother to follow player growth intently, certainly the days of Tom Clare like vigilance are almost all but over with maybe less than a handful on the entire sight giving detailed insights on players you'll hear about in the future.

Where your club is at and the kind of manager/coach you have will also curtail investment in youth, or taper it, at least. If we had a Fergie-level investor in youth, the desire to observe youngsters as a whole would increase.

 

[P0GBA]

Youth needs to be brought into teams with top quality players to have any level of success.
Imagine our front three next season was Garnacho Haaland Pellistri or Garnacho Osimhen Pellistri the fans would be the most excited we've been for years. But I would be very pessimistic without top quality players to play alongside them.

 

[ManRant]

All those who are good/great at it wouldn't waste their talent at a football forum, that's for sure.

 

[Son]

Only young players I have rated above and beyond since Messi have been Cherki and Foden. Foden has won basically everything yet I was a little unsure with him last season and for England. Drifts in and out of games. Doesn't seem to have a nailed down position.

I never could have imagined Modric back at Spurs doing what he has done in the game either even at like 23 y/o. He was a Spurs player.

I loved Hazard at Lille also. Gutted when we didn't sign him.

I'll stick my neck out and say if we sign Hojland I have huge doubts he'll make it here. Looks to me like we are spending 50m to downgrade from 'he who shall not be named' drastically. I don't even think Hojland is even remotely in the same talent pool but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[maximus419]

I'd actually say the club is pretty poor generally at identifying and developing players as well. I mean we have this over hyped reputation of developing youth players, but apart from the CO92 and the odd player like Rashford and more recently Greenwood and now Garnacho, who we basically bought, we don't or haven't had much success with youth.

Sure, we have a good record of players going on to play at pro level, but when you spend a fair amount on youth, you'd expect a greater return for players to be part of first team.
Many of these players would've been developed better elsewhere and had a proper plan and progression path to the first team. We no longer trust youngsters, they have to be generational talents to stand a chance. Under SAF he gave youth more chance, but then again he also had better players in the first team to help them out. As the current first team is not at the very top level, our youngsters mistakes are more costly and we lose patience more quickly. It's just an overall situation that we've had poor recruitment for a long time that's hindering development across the different age groups.

 

[Strelok]

Under SAF he gave youth more chance,

Different time different circumstance imo. Back then the PL was not as competitive as recently. Any top team must be at their best now basically every week to get a positive result. Even City. And our managers now would be sacked if they don't make top 4. It's easy for us fans to say give youth more chance but it's not that easy for the managers. They have to get results and if they don't none gonna give them any chance.

 

[BigBebe]

I thought that with Ravel Morrison and Paul Pogba, we had a world-class midfield sorted for at least 10 years.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Terrible.

But, the weirdest one of all was when a group on the Caf had an obsession with Barry Bannan.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Here's a thread with a list from 2011 of 'future stars'.

 

[trevor newnham]

I thought that with Ravel Morrison and Paul Pogba, we had a world-class midfield sorted for at least 10 years.

they were unplayable at times for the youth and Reserves. you never can tell

 

[Zlatattack]

You can tell talent, but you can't tell any more than that. How a player turns out depends on attitude, opportunity, injuries and physical development in their late teens.

You can't always predict for that. Rashford got a shot because of injuries, would he be the same player if he'd only got the odd game in cup competitions and Di Maria and Lukaku were firing for us?

What would Phil Jones without injuries be like, Lingard from a stable background.

 

[trevor newnham]

Might get a delete or warning for saying it… but Foden and Greenwood in Iceland was indicative.

I don’t think it was two lads working shit out. I don’t think Foden and Greenwood got the same messages when getting home.

One is now a treble winner. The other is listless.

Cultural and emotional education is so valuable for this latest crop of 17 year old millionaires.

Foden remains a very weird dude, but he seems to be professionally perfect.

great post. I have never warmed to Foden. I think there was a lot swept under the carpet about Iceland.

 

[sugar_kane]

I'm getting better every year at assessing potential through the process of continual disappointment.

eg. I was excited about Januzaj, Jonathan Wilson etc, then that changed to just thinking that the likes of Brandon Williams etc could be decent squad players, now I presume most of them will eventually flop and we need to get more ruthless about getting rid rather than handing out repeated chances.

The only exceptions of the last few years where it was clear the prospects had special talent are Garnacho and Greenwood. The rest of them I'm lukewarm on until they can prove themselves to be capable of high level football for a whole season. Even players with great loan spells like Diallo, it's interesting to see how they can do for United but looking like a star at Sunderland means nothing. The weight of playing for United takes a very special mentality that very few have.

I'm also of the opinion if youth players aren't making it into the first eleven there is always a very good reason for that, and it doesn't make a difference if the manager is Ten Hag, Mourinho or Solskjaer. They all want to win, and they will pick whichever players are most likely to help deliver on that goal, regardless of whether they're 'champions of youth' or whatever. Van Gaal was the exception to the rule hence giving lots of minutes to players like Blackett & McNair.

 

[Rozay]

In hindsight, not very.

The question isn’t as straightforward as it seems though. The operative word here is potential. A player who DOES have the POTENTIAL to be the best in the world is not guaranteed to go on to do so, for a number of reasons. I’m not sure that you have ‘judged his potential wrongly’ just because he doesn’t become so.

Personally, like most, I like to think I can spot a player who has the ability, but there are so many factors required for that potential to be realised. Not least environment. Right opportunity in the right circumstances, which isn’t always forthcoming. Players may be at the wrong clubs at the wrong times.

 

[SAFMUTD]

I thought Chong and Angel Gomes were going to be the next big thing. So 0/10 tops.

 

[Remember the geese]

I thought Chong and Angel Gomes were going to be the next big thing. So 0/10 tops.

I still rate Gomes.

 

[SAFMUTD]

I still rate Gomes.

Then youre even worse than me.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

Terrible.

But, the weirdest one of all was when a group on the Caf had an obsession with Barry Bannan.

It was all because of that Scholesy poster. He had some strange obsessions over the years. Bannan, Tom Cairney, Nathan Delfouneso, don't remember who else.

To be fair to him, he was spot on about Modric despite all the ridicule he got.

 

[Alek M]

Well Liam Miller was going to replace Keane. And i said David Belion will be better than Henry.

 

[Mr PG]

I predicted Kobbie Mainoo , Isak Hansen, Hannibal, Amad and Garnacho would be very good 1st team players 2 yrs ago.

Shea Lacey will be truly world class. Him and Kobbie Mainoo.

 

[Lost bear]

The famous Harry Redknapp press conference where a West Ham fan tells him that Frank Lampard will never make it as a player (while Lampard is sitting there) is always a good reminder of the difference between armchair/internet fans judging young players versus actual football people seeing them every day in training.

Plus I remember Beckham’s first season for us and thinking he was absolutely dreadful and would never amount to anything.

That said it’s probably a sad indictment of our academy that there have been so few exciting young players emerge that make you think “yeah he definitely could be a starter in a few years time”, Garnacho probably the exception

And maybe He who cannot be named?

 

[Lost bear]

You can tell talent, but you can't tell any more than that. How a player turns out depends on attitude, opportunity, injuries and physical development in their late teens.

You can't always predict for that. Rashford got a shot because of injuries, would he be the same player if he'd only got the odd game in cup competitions and Di Maria and Lukaku were firing for us?

What would Phil Jones without injuries be like, Lingard from a stable background.

Lingard from a stable background would be a stallion.

 

[Golden Nugget]

Horrible. I watch the clips and see them in cameos/ pre season and think they’re going to make it. James Wilson and Januzaj were ones I thought was a cert; Iqbal and Mitchell were others.

Funny enough I was convinced Garnacho wasn’t going to make it. I remember seeing and thinking that yeah, he’s rapid, but it just won’t work in the Premier League. I’ve just given up and just happily watch and let them progress

 

[NLunited]

You can tell talent, but you can't tell any more than that. How a player turns out depends on attitude, opportunity, injuries and physical development in their late teens.

You can't always predict for that. Rashford got a shot because of injuries, would he be the same player if he'd only got the odd game in cup competitions and Di Maria and Lukaku were firing for us?

What would Phil Jones without injuries be like, Lingard from a stable background.

So true. Besides talent it is hard work and opportunity/luck that determine whether someone makes it.

Then there are injuries, a bad environment, frail mental health, a weak character and lack of motivation that can derail a career, as well as bad choices.

That is why so few make it.

 

[tenpoless]

So far I have identified:
1. Lukaku
2. Matic
3. Sanchez
4. Wout Weghorst
when they were young and they did went on to become United players. So it's fair to say my assessment is pretty good and very close to United scouts.

 

[Kopral Jono]

Atrociously bad on the potential of young players but I have good intuition for predicting the success of United signings going back twenty years or so. To name a few: I had a feeling Veron was going to be underwhelming, Evra and Vidic to become stars, Anderson and Nani to end up differently, Van Persie to instantly win us the league and Depay and Schneiderlin to flop very hard. I was also correct on the likes of Kleberson and Heinze. The ones I got wrong include Di Maria, Martial and Pogba admittedly, but I like to think my judgment on this is above average.

 

[Andycoleno9]

Clueless. If young player has amazing technique, he is future world class for me. If not, he is shit.
I even said that Iqbal is a new Modric.

 

[sparx99]

Then youre even worse than me.

He just won the U21 Euros off the back of a decent season in France.

 

[SAFMUTD]

He just won the U21 Euros off the back of a decent season in France.

Serious question how did he played the U21 euro when he's 22, almost 23?

 

[KirkDuyt]

Yes!

 

[Robbie Boy]

It was all because of that Scholesy poster. He had some strange obsessions over the years. Bannan, Tom Cairney, Nathan Delfouneso, don't remember who else.

To be fair to him, he was spot on about Modric despite all the ridicule he got.

Ah yes, that nutter

I remember him banging on about Modric alright. He can hold his head high on that one.

 

[PSV]

Serious question how did he played the U21 euro when he's 22, almost 23?

Cutoff is when qualifier starts, not the tournament. Else you'd have one team qualifying and another entering.

 

[Remember the geese]

Then youre even worse than me.

No, you just changed your judgement on him for no reason. He's always been a terrific talent.