Another surprise of the day has been Jagan Reddy wining the AP assembly elections. Anecdotal evidence but a lot of people say that the dude is bad and possibly the most corrupt person in Indian politics (legacy of his father of course).
I think this was in-line with expectations (maybe not the size of the win). His father is still popular and he seems to be living off that name totally (even named his party with those initials).
Has Naidu ever won re-election?
First, regarding airstrikes it helped BJP but not with alliances. SS for example was always going to go with BJP, the arithmetic in Maha does not support them going alone in any form.
I don't know how Congress will be revived other than winning as a default party again in some states. But that is no reason to keep going on with a failed leader. It is clear that urban voters will no longer vote on the basis of your surname so the sycophancy has to stop.
Shiv Sena workers were not willing for the alliance at all, and Uddhav had to decide between appeasing sitting ministers or his MLAs and shakha workers. The strike changed all that. He stopped taking some peoples' calls after that when he made up his mind.
In 2014 assembly, they fought separately, and BJP fell *just* short of a majority, and needed SS support from outside.
I also don't see a way back for Congress, unless the 3 new CMs perform some miracle. The way BJP built up Modi since about 2007 has been patient - media campaigns, online, etc they transformed his image. It took about 5 years (2012-13), before the effects were felt. And it probably happened then because of Anna Hazare etc discrediting UPA and Modi emerging as the clean alternative. When has Congress ever done a thing like that, and what do they have to work with? I don't see it.
There is a big difference between Orissa assembly polls right now (28 out of 150 for BJP) and lok sabha (7 out of 21). But the upcoming state elections should not show a big difference:
a. in MH if the alliance holds it will be a massive and easy win. Fadnavis has worked very hard to keep the alliance going, and is not personally unpopular IMO.
b. Haryana according to reports there was a consolidation of non-Jats agianst Jats (who themselves are split between Cong and others). Even if Khattar is unpopular (as some reports suggested), the maths should carry him through.
c. Delhi I have no idea at all, not read much either.
d. Bihar - sweep for NDA is expected based on the maths and having the most popular state and national leader.
So there are no immediate prospects for Congress consolidating in the states, and in fact they might well lost Karnataka soon.