Aye, project reality.project fear
Indy Ref 2.0 - October 2023
- Thread starter sun_tzu
- Start date
Guess a lot will depend on where the government have taken the UK by next year.
Get the impression that Westminster have given up on the idea of sunlit uplands and realise that Brexit was a gross error and could never have worked. Trashing the NI protocol currently to distract attention. Five more years of new regulations and end of grace periods.
Do Scotland follow the rest of the UK down the Brexit rabbit hole as this may be the last chance they get for a long time.
Either way it's a tough choice and won't be easy. If they do choose to leave the Uk they will have to adapt their economy more towards the EU like NI are doing.
Whatever happens, lies will be abound as they were for Brexit and how will people understand what the consequences are because they certainly weren't understood with Brexit.
Get the impression that Westminster have given up on the idea of sunlit uplands and realise that Brexit was a gross error and could never have worked. Trashing the NI protocol currently to distract attention. Five more years of new regulations and end of grace periods.
Do Scotland follow the rest of the UK down the Brexit rabbit hole as this may be the last chance they get for a long time.
Either way it's a tough choice and won't be easy. If they do choose to leave the Uk they will have to adapt their economy more towards the EU like NI are doing.
Whatever happens, lies will be abound as they were for Brexit and how will people understand what the consequences are because they certainly weren't understood with Brexit.
said after the 2019 election that tories winning again would mean scotland leaving and a united ireland at a much faster rate than would have been case otherwise. it's turning out exactly as i thought tbh. don't see how you could blame scotland either. would you stay in a union where you're represented by neoliberalism personified despite never giving them a majority preference yourself?
We aren't going anywhere
remains to be seen.
I will post a picture of myself licking Arthur's Seat if we vote for independence.
I can't see it happening either. Numbers were a lot better last time although they could change by next year.
on the contrary, I think England is quite culturally fragmented and the UK even more so.
https://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/
Elephant in the room.
As I said last time this was debated.
Scotland can leave or stay but if it leaves it takes its share of the national debt with it and as I don't have a vote, I don't want to pay for it.
Elephant in the room.
As I said last time this was debated.
Scotland can leave or stay but if it leaves it takes its share of the national debt with it and as I don't have a vote, I don't want to pay for it.
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The best outcome for Scotland IMO was to remain in both the UK and the EU. And that was the view of the majority of voters at the ballot box in Scotland in both 2014 and 2016.
In 2014 more people voted 'No' than 'Yes' in 28 out of the 32 counting areas (though 1 of the 4 exceptions was the largest counting area Glasgow), and in 2016 more people voted to Remain than Leave in all 32 of those counting areas. So on both extremely important occasions, the majority of voters that turned out in Scotland voted for reason and common sense, ahead of fantasy and unnecessary self harm (though the respective official No and Remain campaigns were both terrible). It's just a shame in 2016, more people at the ballot box in 199 out of the 275 counting areas in England and in 22 out of the 27 in Wales voted in favour of fantasy and unnecessary self harm
In 2014 more people voted 'No' than 'Yes' in 28 out of the 32 counting areas (though 1 of the 4 exceptions was the largest counting area Glasgow), and in 2016 more people voted to Remain than Leave in all 32 of those counting areas. So on both extremely important occasions, the majority of voters that turned out in Scotland voted for reason and common sense, ahead of fantasy and unnecessary self harm (though the respective official No and Remain campaigns were both terrible). It's just a shame in 2016, more people at the ballot box in 199 out of the 275 counting areas in England and in 22 out of the 27 in Wales voted in favour of fantasy and unnecessary self harm
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I think that's nonsense.
You don’t think the North and South of England are culturally different?
They will vote remain. You can quote me in years to come.
Not significantly... We all have our regional differences, but I wouldn't call it cultural in a million years. The difference between rich and poor is far more significant.
Sure, if you go to Shetland you'll find a slightly different way of living, but in general, Edinburgh or Bristol, we're extremely similar. The difference between a Londoner and a Geordie is no greater than the difference between a Londoner and a Glaswegian.
So much more of an economic basket case than 2014 but that plays into the SNPs hands. As 2016 proved the dumbass public don’t like hearing about economic realities.
Personally I think that's quite a big gulf without adding rich/poor dynamics.
Maybe, if they hold it next year. If they held it in 2025 or 2026 it may be a different outcome.
fecking hell, have you told Arthur yet?
You've ruined the joke - that's my husbands name
I agree. You could probably throw a Dubliner into the mix as well.
Culturally (and geographically) Liverpool and Manchester are both closer to Ireland than London.
You've ruined the joke - that's my husbands name
ffsI don't see it. It's no different to any other country.
And I see absolutely no good reason why, if there were significant cultural differences, dividing a people and creating a border could be seen as anything other than fecking primitive.
Another thought, but are people who in 2018-2019 supported and pushed for another EU referendum (I was one of them), in much of a position to oppose another independence referendum?
I remember Ian Murray and other Scottish Labour and Lib Dem members on one hand arguing for another EU referendum because voters had the right to change their minds and because of the change in circumstances since 2016, while on the other arguing against another independence referendum because the one in 2014 was 'once in a generation'. 'settled the matter' and ignoring the fact that Brexit caused a huge and material change in circumstances there.
A few of them tried to justify that by saying another independence referendum would be incredibly divisive, but of course another EU referendum would have been as well. And around that time support for remaining in the EU and for Scottish independence was roughly in the same ballpark polling-wise. They were rightly criticised for rather contradictory views there.
I remember Ian Murray and other Scottish Labour and Lib Dem members on one hand arguing for another EU referendum because voters had the right to change their minds and because of the change in circumstances since 2016, while on the other arguing against another independence referendum because the one in 2014 was 'once in a generation'. 'settled the matter' and ignoring the fact that Brexit caused a huge and material change in circumstances there.
A few of them tried to justify that by saying another independence referendum would be incredibly divisive, but of course another EU referendum would have been as well. And around that time support for remaining in the EU and for Scottish independence was roughly in the same ballpark polling-wise. They were rightly criticised for rather contradictory views there.
I'm sick of endless partisan and sectarian parties pulling us all apart every year. I'd argue the main reason the SNP ever got into power was braveheart (people will believe 95% of the shit they see on TV) whereas in reality the United Kingdom was a Scottish idea and - as with so many problems in Scotland - is rooted mainly in religious strife. This isn't about the evil English stamping their jackboots on Scotland. Nor is it a heartwarming freedom story. Because independence for Scotland will end up with LESS freedom for the Scottish, NOT more - the idea being they need to be osmosed back as a satellite to the E.U. or go full on medieval realpolitik with behind the doors deals to Ireland while setting up borders around the island and dealing with the inevitable years of hardship - decadses maybe - while we are already dealing with the fallout from a pandemic and potential ww3... It's going to be unbelievably painful financially. Sturgeon and her buddies will never go hungry of course, it will be regular Scots that now have to form their own NHS, cut links with the £, form a customs border with England (!!!! For fecks sake if all this comes to pass can you imagine tariffing all the trade from down there???)
It just feels like the enemies of democracy would love for this to happen. And it feels like it will, at this point, inexorably. But there won't be a referendum next year, this is just a mandate toward turning the next general election info one. And I hope it never happens and I hope my friends in Scotland see sense but ideaological possession is a powerful thing.
It just feels like the enemies of democracy would love for this to happen. And it feels like it will, at this point, inexorably. But there won't be a referendum next year, this is just a mandate toward turning the next general election info one. And I hope it never happens and I hope my friends in Scotland see sense but ideaological possession is a powerful thing.
I’d be surprised if you lived in each of those areas and took away the thoughts that they’re no different tbh. Having lived in London, Dundee, York and Ed, there were varying cultural differences in everyday life.
The long-standing arrogance and gross incompetence of the Scottish Labour branch office, was a major reason why the SNP got into and kept power. Labour clearly through that it was 'job done' in Scotland after devolution, that it would kill the SNP, and that they would continue to dominate Scottish politics indefinitely. They took voters in Scotland for granted, elected a series of worse than useless leaders (Johann Lamont, Richard Leonard etc.), were a truly pathetic main party of opposition in Holyrood from 2007-2016, opposed progressive policies. etc. IIRC when running Glasgow council, they spent public money trying to oppose equal pay for female council workers.
The final straw for many people was when they stupidly shared a platform with the Tories in the 2014 referendum, and I'm sure that at one point Alistair Darling actually defended the record of Cameron and Osborne in Westminster.
IIRC the SNP minority government did a pretty good job from 2007-2011, and they were rewarded for that by winning a majority of seats in the 2011 elections. However since then I think their domestic record has definitely been very poor. The general opposition to them by Labour and the Tories has been shambolic though.
The final straw for many people was when they stupidly shared a platform with the Tories in the 2014 referendum, and I'm sure that at one point Alistair Darling actually defended the record of Cameron and Osborne in Westminster.
IIRC the SNP minority government did a pretty good job from 2007-2011, and they were rewarded for that by winning a majority of seats in the 2011 elections. However since then I think their domestic record has definitely been very poor. The general opposition to them by Labour and the Tories has been shambolic though.
I vaguely recall Sturgeon essentially starting a new campaign right after the no vote came in in 2014. I remember thinking it was a bit out of order seeing as they said it was a once in a generation kind of a thing.
But the fact is, Brexit happened two years later and the people of Scotland didn't vote for it. I think that easily justifies going again.
I was listening to David Mundell talk about why it shouldn't go ahead this morning and all of his arguments were completely hopeless - there's a cost of living crisis, we're coming out of covid. Just nothing arguments.
But the fact is, Brexit happened two years later and the people of Scotland didn't vote for it. I think that easily justifies going again.
I was listening to David Mundell talk about why it shouldn't go ahead this morning and all of his arguments were completely hopeless - there's a cost of living crisis, we're coming out of covid. Just nothing arguments.
Any possibility of your current government encouraging this behind the scenes ?
While extremely cynical it does ensure labor not having a ghost of chance of winning in the foreseeable future.
So I guess in a very cynical pragmatic sort of way it must be quite an intriguing proposition.
While extremely cynical it does ensure labor not having a ghost of chance of winning in the foreseeable future.
So I guess in a very cynical pragmatic sort of way it must be quite an intriguing proposition.
Labour kind of dug their own grave in Scotland. For years they took for granted that they would get elected so, at least in my constituency, they did next to feck all because they were safe. From the 70s all the way until the mid 2000s it just got shitter and shitter. Zero central funding, industry gone and not replaced, constituent letters and calls ignored. It wasn't until 2005 when Gordon Brown was voted in that things started to improve because despite common opinion he was a great public servant. But since him it's been a yo-yo between SNP and Labour (now it's the Alba party because the MP switched sides so feck knows what's going to happen at the next GE).
Happy enough to be slaves for eternity? fecking shameful shower of fannies if thats true
dont talk shite...all they have said is Scotland would have to wait in line
Spanish government confirms no EU veto for an independent Scotland (catalannews.com)
I will always vote for independence despite probably losing out massively if it happened. Chance to rid ourselves of Westminster and be governed by a parliament that is elected at least somewhat proportionally, with parties that give cooperation a bash.
Not sure many share the same opinion. As I said before, nation of bottlers.
Interesting, always thought having two consecutive Scottish Labour PMs endeared the party further for you folk.
Obviously I'm not as well versed in Scottish politics as you are and I assume your an Edinburgh dweller so how do assess the atmosphere in the city, has the yes inclination gotten stronger since 2014? Do you think this one will succeed?
Also how would the post uk future look like for Scotland? Is there any industrys to build an economy on?
For what it's worth Tony Blair was a cnut but Gordon Brown was loved in his constituency, especially when he worked his magic and did what his MP predecessor failed to do and got the funding for a new hospital. Brown genuinely cared about his constituency and understood what politics was all about.
You're actually quite close, I live close to Edinburgh and visit a lot but the disparity between the city and just outside of it can be jarring. To give you perspective, if I'm in Edinburgh then I have access to a plethora of art galleries and restaurants during the day, amazing jazz clubs in the evening and probably a great hotel room to pish the bed in by night. Every accent you come across down the street is different and the majority of folk aren't entirely wankers.
Me, though. I currently live in an absolute shit hole and it's only a few miles away. Once you leave the city or major towns (like the one I grew up in) you find a lot of places that just seem to be hotbeds for scum*. They would undoubtedly vote 50/50 depending on whether they support Rangers or Celtic. Because they're fecking morons. I say "would vote" because they actually wouldn't bother going to the polling stations.
But Edinburgh would probably vote No unless there was undeniable proof that economically it was the right choice. I think the British argument of yesterday doesn't really apply anymore (maybe my numbers are wrong but I'm sure 10-20% of the residents in Edinburgh are English, which explains the huge uptick in literacy levels and public hygiene compared to the rest of the country) because the Tories have decimated confidence in the last couple of years and their actions don't reflect what Scotland would want, therefore it doesn't really feel like a union anymore.
As for your second part; renewables are our bread and butter now. Where I grew up used to be iconic for the linoleum industry (Michael Portillo's family, no less, which is why he has a very strange association with my town), but once that died we became a service industry town. Now that's gone as well there's been a focus on small businesses working on engineering and technology. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, especially with the big push in schools and higher/further education, our future is computer science and renewables. Engineering, in the form of companies like Babcock and whatever the feck they do near Glasgow, will also play a part. As far as I'm aware the SNP are also focused on this. With schools and businesses focused on these targets, plus our historical need to press buttons and tamper with stuff, it looks to be on track.
I'm stuck in the middle. My family are a mish mash of Scottish, English and criminals (Australian) so feck knows.
*Yes, some people are scum and I don't care for any of this "they've been failed by the system" shite. Try telling me that after you've lived in one of these places and told a drug addict ten times to stop shitting on your garage roof.
You wont lose out massively at all. You have an abundance of natural resources and with eventual EU backing will do alright.
If we vote to leave the UK, you can lay the blame at the Tories and the Brexit result.
Labour have as much chance of winning in Scotland as the SNP does with reversing Brexit.
Labour have as much chance of winning in Scotland as the SNP does with reversing Brexit.
Oil revenues fell off a cliff after 2014 and trade with the EU is a fraction (1/3) of trade with the rest of the UK. And that's before we get to budget deficits and national debt. And using the pound.
Trying to be an independent nation while grovelling to join the EU on the one hand and using a currency thats issued and controlled by a different country on the other. Just idiotic.
Very interesting, thank you for your answer.
I guess the rural urban division exists there as well though I don't know if it's as bad as its over here (it obviously existed since the beginning of time but vote percentages of each side is getting ludicrous) which leads me to believe it's become the most major political tendency determiner among folk, more so than any other factor (wealth, class, race, religion etc etc) somethings which i find to be damaging in the long run but oh well, it's besides the point.
Did the fallout of labor have anything to do with the 2008 crash? A backlash against years of their rule and the perceived incompetence? Because as an outsider i do find the the push for independent a bit strange considering that according to my knowledge there wasn't such a sentiment in the previous century so what did the labour and subsequently the tory governments do that has made it such a tantalizing idea for you folks since then ?
I guess from an outsiders point of view I say It would be better to stay but again I'm not as well informed as I must be to pass such a judgment so what do I know, nonetheless you should be fine as the tech industry doesn't require much resources to develop though having those won't hurt either.
One way or the other I wish you the best.
On an unrelated note I see you and many other Scotts point to the illiteracy, hygiene aspects of your country and as someone who's interested in history it does take me by surprise as you lot certain seemed to outdo everyone in producing luminaries in 18th and 19th century giving us giants like watt, maxwell, Smith, hume etc etc so what happened exactly for it to suddenly become so deprived, was it a mind flight thing with folk moving over here?
What happened?
grovelling to be in the largest trading bloc in the world is idiotic and staying with Bojo and the fascists isnt.... fecking dead on ye genius. Also as the NI economy has shown trade with the UK means feck all as other markets will open up. As for Scotlands North Sea oil revenues the cost at the pump should tell you that that will be going up drastically.Scotland is better off looking after itself and getting away from the pish thats Westminster grow a fecking set of balls and look after yourselves!!
I wonder if the fact that the Brexit negotiations were so long and torturous, lurching from disaster to disaster (the 2018 World Cup was a welcome distraction from all that) will put some potential voters off 'Scexit'. Then again the Westminster government regardless of the political make-up of it will surely not be anywhere near as skillful negotiators as the EU and Barnier were.