Iran v US confrontation

[barros]

I don't think that is the Iranian regime's main motivation (in other words, I don't think they are scared). I think Iran knows they have an opportunity to swing world opinion against the Trump administration and American involvement in the ME and that by not escalating further, their case becomes stronger on the diplomatic front.

An attack against any US troops would be the end of the current regime, when all the power plants and probably military targets destroyed and with a lot of voices against the regime....they aren’t stupid

 

[VeevaVee]

There's a video of the plane being hit by the missile.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Hard to fathom how terrifying it must've been to have been hit but the plane continue flying, presumably with a huge hole in the side, before eventually exploding.

Also, why was someone recording?

 

[ChaddyP]

There's a video of the plane being hit by the missile.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Hard to fathom how terrifying it must've been to have been hit but the plane continue flying, presumably with a huge hole in the side, before eventually exploding.

Also, why was someone recording?

WOW

 

[Redplane]

While I think I made it clear that I don't question the notion a missile indeed was responsible for the eventual explosion that led to the crash (and the video and math I've seen seems to confirm) - it's hard not to wonder who benefits from this event and what they might have had to do with it. Too much crazy conspiracy like shit in the world these days that's proven to have truth to it i guess.

 

[Paxi]

There's a video of the plane being hit by the missile.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Hard to fathom how terrifying it must've been to have been hit but the plane continue flying, presumably with a huge hole in the side, before eventually exploding.

Also, why was someone recording?

That's why I'm always lit on the plane. Takes the edge off when flying. Also I have anxiety so stuck in an aluminium cylinder 30,000 in the air is not a good place to be.

 

[barros]

While I think I made it clear that I don't question the notion a missile indeed was responsible for the eventual explosion that led to the crash (and the video and math I've seen seems to confirm) - it's hard not to wonder who benefits from this event and what they might have had to do with it. Too much crazy conspiracy like shit in the world these days that's proven to have truth to it i guess.

That was a mistake by someone who was too nervous and pulled the trigger, they knew the airplane was going to take off but because they thought trump was going to escalate the situation they got messed up and soon they saw a bleep on the radar they answered by accident.

 

[calodo2003]

Do the new generation of ships not have anti missile systems and radar jamming devices? The Sunburns are just devastating yes but no where near top of the tech, they aren't a stealth missile as far as I am aware.

They could mount them on their go fast boats & swarm whatever vessel / fleet, potentially getting so close that CIWS & other anti-missile systems might not even be viable. They love their asymmetry. It would be a different type of suicide vest for those Iranians on the boats, their status as martyrs would be unparalleled.

 

[Sky1981]

That was a mistake by someone who was too nervous and pulled the trigger, they knew the airplane was going to take off but because they thought trump was going to escalate the situation they got messed up and soon they saw a bleep on the radar they answered by accident.

You'd think at high alert like this where the Iran are very very careful not to escalate certain double measures would have been imposed.

If it is indeed thought as US air force even more scrutiny would have been taken before a "FIRE" command given. Confirmation, reconfirmation, and probably a few repeat of authorization would be needed at times like this.

 

[11101]

It's also a hell to maintain with special painting and facilities at their home bases, to maintain that precious radar absorbing coating.
So in war time is not very clear how this would transfer to some other base around the world.
That being said, its apparently so good, that they don't export it even to closest allies.

Quite easily, they're already based overseas. They require some special treatment but it's the B2 that is the real pain to maintain.

It's not beyond possibility that ballistic missile intercept is part of their future roadmap. The US has ordered so many they can create clusters of them, and even if the enemy can see them there's not much they can do about them.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

They could mount them on their go fast boats & swarm whatever vessel / fleet, potentially getting so close that CIWS & other anti-missile systems might not even be viable. They love their asymmetry. It would be a different type of suicide vest for those Iranians on the boats, their status as martyrs would be unparalleled.

Pesky Iranians.

 

[The Firestarter]

Quite easily, they're already based overseas. They require some special treatment but it's the B2 that is the real pain to maintain.

It's not beyond possibility that ballistic missile intercept is part of their future roadmap. The US has ordered so many they can create clusters of them, and even if the enemy can see them there's not much they can do about them.

F22 is based overseas ? Or you are talking about F35.
B2 as a supposed wunderwaffe and it's strategic value is understandable.

 

[Maticmaker]

Newsnight , last night seemed to be suggesting the plane's flight path immediately leaving the airport took it in the direction of a Iranian military installation, which is guarded by a system of surface-to-air missiles and in this heightened situation this plane managed to trigger the system.

Hence the Iranian's surface to air defence system downed its own plane by mistake.

Guess these stories will continue until the 'black box' recorder has received independent analysis.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Newsnight , last night seemed to be suggesting the plane's flight path immediately leaving the airport took it in the direction of a Iranian military installation, which is guarded by a system of surface-to-air missiles and in this heightened situation this plane managed to trigger the system.

Hence the Iranian's surface to air defence system downed its own plane by mistake.

Guess these stories will continue until the 'black box' recorder has received independent analysis.

I would say most or at least a good number of planes would take that same flight path though?

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
Still a load of shite?

I still don't think it was one of the ballistic missiles that hit it, and see no reason why Iran would hit a commercial aircraft. From the reaction from Iran it seems to have been a bit of an accident. how exactly you do this by accident is beyond me.

 

[11101]

F22 is based overseas ? Or you are talking about F35.
B2 as a supposed wunderwaffe and it's strategic value is understandable.

F22. It has had plenty of deployments to Europe, Asia and the Middle East over the years. It's not as difficult to run as the B2 which requires its own climate controlled hangar wherever it goes, but then that is far more stealthy across a wider frequency range than the F22 or F35.

 

[The Firestarter]

F22. It has had plenty of deployments to Europe, Asia and the Middle East over the years. It's not as difficult to run as the B2 which requires its own climate controlled hangar wherever it goes, but then that is far more stealthy across a wider frequency range than the F22 or F35.

It has had deployments but if I am not mistaken they have been temporary. What I was pointing to was that compared to other us fighters , and especially russian ones , its considerably more difficult to maintain. Which is OK for short/ small scale conflicts.

 

[Maticmaker]

I would say most or at least a good number of planes would take that same flight path though?

Yes but not whilst there was an emergency situation being played out.
Apparently (according to Newsnight) the plane either didn't alter course as it should have done and/or the Iranians were expecting some retaliation from the US for the rockets they had just launched and so their S-to-A missile defence systems were all up primed and ready!
As I said previously, similar stories likely to appear until the 'black box' results are independently confirmed.

 

[11101]

It has had deployments but if I am not mistaken they have been temporary. What I was pointing to was that compared to other us fighters , and especially russian ones , its considerably more difficult to maintain. Which is OK for short/ small scale conflicts.

It is, but then nobody else has fully operational stealth aircraft*


*The Chinese J20 is questionable.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Yes but not whilst there was an emergency situation being played out.
Apparently (according to Newsnight) the plane either didn't alter course as it should have done and/or the Iranians were expecting some retaliation from the US for the rockets they had just launched and so their S-to-A missile defence systems were all up primed and ready!
As I said previously, similar stories likely to appear until the 'black box' results are independently confirmed.

Yeah possible, and would explain a lot, Iran certainly have moved quickly enough to try and make this go away.

 

[The Firestarter]

Newsnight , last night seemed to be suggesting the plane's flight path immediately leaving the airport took it in the direction of a Iranian military installation, which is guarded by a system of surface-to-air missiles and in this heightened situation this plane managed to trigger the system.

Hence the Iranian's surface to air defence system downed its own plane by mistake.

Guess these stories will continue until the 'black box' recorder has received independent analysis.

Are you really suggesting some dead man's hand system automatically launched a SAM?
And what does 'it's own plane' mean?

 

[Red Panda]

I still don't think it was one of the ballistic missiles that hit it, and see no reason why Iran would hit a commercial aircraft. From the reaction from Iran it seems to have been a bit of an accident. how exactly you do this by accident is beyond me.

...clearly

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

...clearly

Meaning?

 

[Red Panda]

Your posts suggest you find things a bit beyond you

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Your posts suggest you find things a bit beyond you

Which posts are these, as you seem such an enlightened person?

 

[11101]

Meaning?

At no point has anyone suggested one of the ballistic missiles collided with it. It was (allegedly) a Surface to Air defence missile that was launched in error that hit it.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

At no point has anyone suggested one of the ballistic missiles collided with it. It was (allegedly) a Surface to Air defence missile that was launched by accident that hit it.

When it first came to light no one suggested it was a surface to air missile, that only came out yesterday. It was suggested the plane could have gotten hit in the cross fire initially.

 

[The Firestarter]

When it first came to light no one suggested it was a surface to air missile, that only came out yesterday.

Not sure what your sources are.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Not sure what your sources are.

When this first came out in the media and on here most thought it was an accident, I didn't see anyone suggest it was fired from a military base by accident from an automated system on alert, will be happily proven wrong. That would have been a pretty in-depth call to make, most were saying it was a plane failure some said the Americans or the Iranians.

 

[langster]

When this first came out in the media and on here most thought it was an accident, I didn't see anyone suggest it was fired from a military base by accident from an automated system on alert, will be happily proven wrong. That would have been a pretty in-depth call to make, most were saying it was a plane failure or the Americans or the Iranians.

No, but nobody suggested it was hit by a ballistic missile either. Most replies rightly said it was mechanical failure OR that being hit by a ballistic missile would be nearly impossible and also that the plane was nowhere near where they were being fired to and from, also that the plane was hit after the strikes had ended.

Not sure why you are continuing to argue this pointless position you are defending.

 

[langster]

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[LilyWhiteSpur]

No, but nobody suggested it was hit by a ballistic missile either. Most replies rightly said it was mechanical failure OR that being hit by a ballistic missile would be nearly impossible and also that the plane was nowhere near where they were being fired to and from, also that the plane was hit after the strikes had ended.

Not sure why you are continuing to argue this pointless position you are defending.

What position am I arguing? I basically said exactly this in bold... a guy quoted me cause I said asked if I thought it was a plane malfunction, to which obviously now it wasn't. I'm not arguing with anyone, what point am I defending?

 

[Maticmaker]

Are you really suggesting some dead man's hand system automatically launched a SAM?
And what does 'it's own plane' mean?

I am not suggesting anything.
The idea that a missile, (part of a Iranian S-A defence system, protecting a nearby military target) was triggered was because of the prevailing situation and proximity to the airport, and the idea was presented on Newsnight last night, presumably information gathered from the BBC's own sources.

By 'own plane', I mean the aircraft that came down had just left Tehran Airport and was presumably authorised to fly in that area by the Iranian Airport Authority.

 

[Foxbatt]

Pompeo has said that US forces would not leave Iraq even though the Iraqi government has requested to do so.

 

[Sir Matt]

After doing some reading, the reason the US didn't intercept the missiles (and likely why Al-Asad was targeted) is that there were no missile defense batteries there. Apparently, the Patriot systems were moved to other areas to safeguard them (like Saudi Arabian oil facilities) since they were believed to be bigger targets. If it turns out that they'd been moved from the bases in Iraq to guard Saudi oil, there should be hell to pay for Trump.

Pompeo has said that US forces would not leave Iraq even though the Iraqi government has requested to do so.

While the current Iraqi government doesn't have the necessary power to kick the US out, it undermines their legitimacy to outright refuse. It's also wrong. Now the US appears to be (and is) an unwelcome occupying force. If you have no intention of leaving soon, you still participate in the conversation about leaving and start negotiating a time table, which you can then stretch. You don't just say, "We're not leaving."

 

[sport2793]

After doing some reading, the reason the US didn't intercept the missiles (and likely why Al-Asad was targeted) is that there were no missile defense batteries there. Apparently, the Patriot systems were moved to other areas to safeguard them (like Saudi Arabian oil facilities) since they were believed to be bigger targets. If it turns out that they'd been moved from the bases in Iraq to guard Saudi oil, there should be hell to pay for Trump.



While the current Iraqi government doesn't have the necessary power to kick the US out, it undermines their legitimacy to outright refuse. It's also wrong. Now the US appears to be (and is) an unwelcome occupying force. If you have no intention of leaving soon, you still participate in the conversation about leaving and start negotiating a time table, which you can then stretch. You don't just say, "We're not leaving."

Agreed

 

[Carolina Red]

If it turns out that they'd been moved from the bases in Iraq to guard Saudi oil, there should be hell to pay for Trump.

Should, but won’t.

 

[Raoul]

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[Redplane]

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I'm trying to wrap my head around why Hezbollah would do this. Is it to incite violence and motivate its members to go on the offensive?

 

[Raoul]

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It's standard propaganda to mourn the leader of the organization that has been funding, arming, and training them since the early 80s.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Iran has admitted shooting down the plane but claim it was an accident.