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Iran v US confrontation

LilyWhiteSpur

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We could definitely hinder their nuclear program, but we already did before. We could do that with cyber a la Stuxnet, it would be more difficult now, but feasible. To think that we could accomplish bigger goals than that (regime change, capitulation of military, complete public sentiment sway, control of Strait of Hormuz) is small minded & foolish. We could inflict damage, but they could use (potentially nuclear tipped, but not necessarily needed) Sunburns on our Fifth Fleet in the Gulf / at port in Bahrain in the first hour of conflict, then turn off the Strait of Hormuz soon after, plunging the world’s economy into chaos overnight.
On paper, the Western military would win v. Iranian military, but Iran ain’t gonna fight symmetrically. That’s where they would score key victories & win a somewhat lopsided stalemate, setting up the next round of hostilities.
Do the new generation of ships not have anti missile systems and radar jamming devices? The Sunburns are just devastating yes but no where near top of the tech, they aren't a stealth missile as far as I am aware.
 

Raoul

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Right now, I imagine Trump would be very quick to point the finger at Iran if any kind of action against US assets or interests occurred. Iran absolutely cannot afford a direct conflict with the US, and the real threat may be that a faction sympathetic to Iran takes action that the regime hasn't sanctioned, and Trump uses that as a premise for an attack (I don't see him waiting on the outcome of any prolonged investigation).

Iran will want the whole situation to go very quiet while it uses its influence in Iraq to push for the expulsion of US forces.
No doubt about it. It will probably come by way of Hezbollah in some random country or by Quds Force operatives in the region.
 

Kentonio

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Do the new generation of ships not have anti missile systems and radar jamming devices? The Sunburns are just devastating yes but no where near top of the tech, they aren't a stealth missile as far as I am aware.
Not everything needs to be cutting edge. Throw enough of pretty much any missile at a target and some will likely get through.
 

LilyWhiteSpur

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Not everything needs to be cutting edge. Throw enough of pretty much any missile at a target and some will likely get through.
Depends how accurate said missile is and if that missile can be intercepted. Take a look on YouTube at anti missile systems they are literally unbelievable, google Aegis Ballistic Missile System. This is what people are taking about when they mention the tech gap compared to the Gulf war, not to mention that the latest generation of ships are stealth meaning most radars wont even see them, you cant hit what you cant see. Even talk that the F-35 can track and hunt ballistic missiles.
 

The Firestarter

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Depends how accurate said missile is and if that missile can be intercepted. Take a look on YouTube at anti missile systems they are literally unbelievable, google Aegis Ballistic Missile System. This is what people are taking about when they mention the tech gap compared to the Gulf war, not to mention that the latest generation of ships are stealth meaning most radars wont even see them, you cant hit what you cant see. Even talk that the F-35 can track and hunt ballistic missiles.
Aegis is 80s technology
 

Revan

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Depends how accurate said missile is and if that missile can be intercepted. Take a look on YouTube at anti missile systems they are literally unbelievable, google Aegis Ballistic Missile System. This is what people are taking about when they mention the tech gap compared to the Gulf war, not to mention that the latest generation of ships are stealth meaning most radars wont even see them, you cant hit what you cant see. Even talk that the F-35 can track and hunt ballistic missiles.
Doubt that F-35 can do that. It is a primarily air to ground fighter, and not long ago was getting humiliated from Eurofighter Typhoons (though since then it is doing better). Heck, in dogfight war games there were occurrences that it was getting killed from ancient F16.

It is still likely the second best aircraft in the world (and the best for its primary mission) but hunting ballistic mussels looks a bit too much.
 

LilyWhiteSpur

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Doubt that F-35 can do that. It is a primarily air to ground fighter, and not long ago was getting humiliated from Eurofighter Typhoons (though since then it is doing better). Heck, in dogfight war games there were occurrences that it was getting killed from ancient F16.

It is still likely the second best aircraft in the world (and the best for its primary mission) but hunting ballistic mussels looks a bit too much.
https://defensemaven.io/warriormave...ssile-defense-missions-6O6k1mDE2kOfr81Ys0Rs6g

They have said its possible and I believe its been tested. Sure there were stories initially that they couldn't get it to take off as it wouldn't recognise the pilot :lol:.

Out of interest what would you have above it? I certainly have one I favour more A-10 for example even if it is ancient, or if you have to destroy absolutely everything the Ghostrider.
 

Revan

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https://defensemaven.io/warriormave...ssile-defense-missions-6O6k1mDE2kOfr81Ys0Rs6g

They have said its possible and I believe its been tested. Sure there were stories initially that they couldn't get it to take off as it wouldn't recognise the pilot :lol:.

Out of interest what would you have above it? I certainly have one I favour more A-10 for example even if it is ancient, or if you have to destroy absolutely everything the Ghostrider.
Different thing, but F22. Of course, unlike F35 it is designed for air to air missions, and from all accounts it is unbeatable in the air. It also costs so much that they had to order far less than they wanted.
 

LilyWhiteSpur

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Different thing, but F22. Of course, unlike F35 it is designed for air to air missions, and from all accounts it is unbeatable in the air. It also costs so much that they had to order far less than they wanted.
Yeah astronomic, I just find it amazing what these things can do and applaud the engineers for doing it.
 

The Firestarter

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Different thing, but F22. Of course, unlike F35 it is designed for air to air missions, and from all accounts it is unbeatable in the air. It also costs so much that they had to order far less than they wanted.
It's also a hell to maintain with special painting and facilities at their home bases, to maintain that precious radar absorbing coating.
So in war time is not very clear how this would transfer to some other base around the world.
That being said, its apparently so good, that they don't export it even to closest allies.
 

Revan

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Yeah astronomic, I just find it amazing what these things can do and applaud the engineers for doing it.
In research and engineering, money is everything. F35 total program is expected to cost 1.5 trillion dollars.
It's also a hell to maintain with special painting and facilities at their home bases, to maintain that precious radar absorbing coating.
So in war time is not very clear how this would transfer to some other base around the world.
That being said, its apparently so good, that they don't export it even to closest allies.
Indeed. They are selling F35 to everyone but not even UK or Israel can get an F22.
 

The Brown Bull

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Joseph Goebbels On Propaganda


- If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.

- There was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyways always yield to the stronger, and this will always be ‘the man in the street.’ Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology.

- The rank and file are usually much more primitive than we imagine. Propaganda must therefore always be essentially simple and repetitive. In the long run basic results in influencing public opinion will be achieved only by the man who is able to reduce problems to the simplest terms.
"The bigger the lie, the more they believe".
Bunk Morland, The Wire.
 

Pexbo

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Pentagon saying Iran/Ukraine flight was shot down.
Do we reckon this was just a random attack by the military, a rogue actor or a calculated target which had POIs onboard fleeing the country?
 

Sky1981

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It's also a hell to maintain with special painting and facilities at their home bases, to maintain that precious radar absorbing coating.
So in war time is not very clear how this would transfer to some other base around the world.
That being said, its apparently so good, that they don't export it even to closest allies.
F35 is good for specific mission. Conventional war? Doubt it'll be cost effective.

In conventional war iran wont realistically compete with US airforce they'll bunker down hard. And when you're free bombing the ground all plane does the job.

It's not like the iran air force fighter are gonna dogfight the us airforce
 

Port Vale Devil

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Do we reckon this was just a random attack by the military, a rogue actor or a calculated target which had POIs onboard fleeing the country?
I would think a tragic accident due to the mayhem going on between the US and Iran at the same time. Really no idea whether it was confused with a US bomber or maybe one of the missiles that were fired at the US airbase hit the plane instead.

Really no idea though I’m sure more will come out in the next few hours.
 

2cents

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Anybody here know anything about this guy?

 

adexkola

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F35 is good for specific mission. Conventional war? Doubt it'll be cost effective.

In conventional war iran wont realistically compete with US airforce they'll bunker down hard. And when you're free bombing the ground all plane does the job.

It's not like the iran air force fighter are gonna dogfight the us airforce
They would be silly to enter a dogfight, but they don't need to. F 35s would probably be assigned to take out SAM sites and what not, clear the area for B 52s to come in and do their thing.
 

Maticmaker

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Just looking at the nature and spread of the debris (at least that shown in the TV pictures) would tend to perhaps indicate an explosion, rather just mechanical failure or just fire.

If it is an explosion, then that could be the fuel going up, after all the plane must have had nearly a full load it was only six minutes out, or a bomb on board, or hit by a missile that took out the fuel as well?

The Iranians appear not to want to let go of the 'black box', if they don't this will bring in a new level of suspicion.

Incidentally, won't the Iranians have more to fear from Israel, if they go ahead with their nuclear weapons programme? I can't see Israel sitting still for that outcome, no matter what the US or Europe or anyone else says. A pre-emptive strike will have to be their one and only response, because they cannot take the risk, for once Iran has such a weapon Israel knows its first on the list.
 

Dans

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So if it was shot down by mistake, what that suggests is they got the wrong target.
 

LilyWhiteSpur

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If it was shot down the chances of one the the ballistic missiles hitting it are slim to none as the tend to shot straight up and the plane had just taken off. If it was shot down it would have been dibelatry targeted obviously not knowing it was a commercial air craft which again is pretty fecking stupid.
 

sun_tzu

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It's incredible that the allies are seemingly forgiving this mistake. If Iran didn't attack those bases and show some threat then I don't think anything like this would be forgiven.
 

The Firestarter

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The wreckage showed multiple holes , similar to shrapnel impacts. Also, the Iranians claimed it was a technical malfunction, just minutes after the crash, without even emergency declarations from the pilots. Just very suspicious.
 

2cents

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I'm not quite finding it credible that Iranian air defence accidentally shoots down a commercial flight.
Incredible timing for mechanical failure though right?
 

2mufc0

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Difficult to trust anything anyone says. If Iran did shoot it down it must have been a major blunder.
 

VorZakone

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I was thinking more they did it on purpose.
What possible reason could there be for that? If there were people on board that the Iranians wanted dead, it'd be smarter to detain them and then punish them rather than shooting them out of the air.
 

Pexbo

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Iran showed exactly what they are capable of and Trump/America’s reaction was to de-escalate ASAP on the agreement that this would be deemed an accident so it’s not viewed as a direct consequence of the rash decision to assassinate Suleima.
 

wr8_utd

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I'd honestly be stunned if it was anything but an accidental shooting down by Iran. There's even a video circulating that seems to show the impact of the STA missiles with something that could have been the aircraft.
 

Redplane

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If anyone doubts governments go to great lengths to take all sorts of weird actions to make you question what really brought down a commercial airliner... Look up TWA 800. I thought I knew plenty to believe that there was no way we ourselves shot it down like so many witnesses, experts, officials etc seemed to claim...I even got to see the wreckage in person (the NTSB still has it in a hangar in VA).

But.. I watched a doc that I believe is on Netflix and suddenly you think that there is almost no way we did NOT shoot it down ourselves. It will make your head spin. The evidence that is presented and all the weird circumstances surrounding the crash and especially investigation make for a compelling case it was indeed shot down.
 
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Foxbatt

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If anyone doubts governments go to great lengths to take all sorts of weird actions to make you question what really brought down a commercial airliner... Look up TWA 800. I thought I knew plenty to believe that there was no way we ourselves shot it down like so many witnesses, experts, officials etc seemed to claim...I even got to see the wreckage in person (the NTSB still has it in a hangar in VA).

But.. I watched a doc that I believe is on Netflix and suddenly you think that there is almost no way we did NOT shoot it down ourselves. It will make your head spin. The evidence that is presented and all the weird circumstances surrounding the crash and especially investigation make for a compelling case it was indeed shot down.
It is the same with the PanAm. No way do I believe that the Libyans are responsible for that. The baggage transfer in Heathrow was more suspicious that the one in Malta.
 

mariachi-19

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There's no benefit to Iran shooting down the jet. The fact that they purposefully attacked US bases and purposefully refrained from causing casualties, is a sure sign they didnt intend to escalate this.

I would hazard a guess that somebody fecked up but Iran wont admit it because they tried their hardest to not escalate the issue and they're concerned this may send UN countries troppo.
 

Red Panda

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InLevyITrust said:
What a lot of shite, were not talking about a guy with a telescope and RPG here, the plane had literally just taken off, I don't think its any link in the crash and the military action. Seems there was a British BP engineer on the plane with with 2 other Brits.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
Still a load of shite?
...........................................................

I have to admit I was wondering that too.
 

Redplane

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There's no benefit to Iran shooting down the jet. The fact that they purposefully attacked US bases and purposefully refrained from causing casualties, is a sure sign they didnt intend to escalate this.

I would hazard a guess that somebody fecked up but Iran wont admit it because they tried their hardest to not escalate the issue and they're concerned this may send UN countries troppo.
I don't think they re worried at all. Trump didn't even bother to bring up the crash in his "let's all be friends speech and sing kumbaya because we care about human life speech"