Irish Politics

[sullydnl]

At first glance it's hard to see how the numbers will stack up for anything other than some sort of FG/FF co-operation. Unless Micheal Martin caves on his anti-SF position, that is.

FF the big losers really. They will probably still lead the new government but they'll have expected to have more of an advantage over FG. Looking to the next election, Fianna Fail will have a harder time defining themselves against SF too, I think.

 

[sullydnl]

Hardly surprising, as someone in that age group you are old enough to clearly remember how the crash affected your family and also now the demographic that is baring the brunt of the housing crisis.

SF narrowly the most popular among over 50's too though. And when you break that down it's only the over 65s where they're not most popular.

 

[Conor]

Hardly surprising, as someone in that age group you are old enough to clearly remember how the crash affected your family and also now the demographic that is baring the brunt of the housing crisis.

Voting SF has essentially become a meme also, which definitely added to this.

 

[2cents]

FG and FF will never let that happen. They would cease to be independent of each other as soon as that happens

Would they really rather go into power with SF though? Doesn’t seem to be any other ways for them.

 

[sullydnl]

Would they really rather go into power with SF though? Doesn’t seem to be any other ways for them.

Confidence and supply again, as opposed to a straight coalition. This time with FF leading government.

FF are in a strange position though. They're likely to lead this government but they would also be likely to fall behind if an election was soon run again with more SF candidates. They're going to have to do some serious tactical thinking in the coming weeks in terms of how they will be defining themselves in the next election and that will dictate how they approach government.

 

[stu_1992]

That exit poll was crazy. Expected it to be close but not that close. Surprised to see FG quite that high as they had been lagging behind a bit but in this they were leading (albeit by a very slim margin with a 1.3% error allowance). Hard to say what happens from here though if expect the SF final total to be lower on vote transfers. I also expect the Greens to have a big say in the next government and are in a great position to negotiate with each of the "big three".

 

[Ramshock]

God its awful quiet in here

 

[Eire Red United]

God its awful quiet in here

When are results due in? I’m away so trying to follow on twitter, would nearly love to see it go to another election and give us a chance to run more candidates.

 

[sullydnl]

When are results due in? I’m away so trying to follow on twitter, would nearly love to see it go to another election and give us a chance to run more candidates.

First counts normally start coming in at around 3pm. Hard to know how long it will be before we get a clear overall picture though given how tight some seats will be.

 

[christy87]

FF and FG are going to have form a coalition, knowing 1 of them will be pretty much ended by it.

 

[sullydnl]

FF and FG are going to have form a coalition, knowing 1 of them will be pretty much ended by it.

Seems like it's FF that are fecked, even though they'll probably finish with the most seats this time. FG are much less divided internally on the prospect of working with SF and also much less likely to lose seats to any future additional SF candidates. FF's figures in Dublin don't look so hot either.

Their best bet tactically would probably be to go into coalition with SF but I can't imagine SF being silly enough to agree to that.

 

[Gee Male]

Seems like it's FF that are fecked, even though they'll probably finish with the most seats this time. FG are much less divided internally on the prospect of working with SF and also much less likely to lose seats to any future additional SF candidates. FF's figures in Dublin don't look so hot either.

Their best bet tactically would probably be to go into coalition with SF but I can't imagine SF being silly enough to agree to that.

SF won't have the seat numbers to go into coalition with anyone, they didn't run enough candidates to ever get into coalition. They've positioned themselves perfectly as hurlers on the ditch again - the "answer" to everything without the burden of actually putting it into practice.

I genuinely cannot believe that it has only taken a decade for FF to be largely forgiven as well.

FG are completely useless too, but probably the least threat to the greater number of people in just getting about our daily lives.

This is not going to end well.

 

[Withnail]

I think it'll have to be a coalition of two of the big three due to the numbers of seats they'll all have.

One of the commentators on RTE reckoned that based on exit poll % there would be less independents as SF have gobbled up their votes. The Greens, Labour etc don't look like they'll get enough seats to prop any of of SF/FF/FG up.

I can't really see any of them going into power with each other though. The most likely bring the FF/FG which I really don't want.

This one could drag on for a while.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

God its awful quiet in here

Don't worry, I'm lurking. Carry on.

 

[Pexbo]

I don’t follow Irish politics at all, could someone be so kind as to summarise it in terms of Left/Centre/Right performance or if possible a Labour/Liberal/Conservative comparison?

Also is there any clues as to how the Union/United Ireland is viewed after Brexit or is that something only Northern Ireland elections could clarify?

 

[buckooo1978]

nice to see that the IRA based attacks haven't hurt the Sinn Fein vote

classic old fashioned scaremongering and good to see voters focusing on real issues

the British general election should have really been about austerity rather than Brexit

 

[Gee Male]

nice to see that the IRA based attacks haven't hurt the Sinn Fein vote

classic old fashioned scaremongering and good to see voters focusing on real issues

the British general election should have really been about austerity rather than Brexit

Kind of sad to see voters not to pay any regard to how likely it is for SF to actually be able to enforce anything in their manifesto. Fund everything, but from where?

We are a country that spends a quarter (a fecking quarter) of our entire tax take on welfare, and we are looking to a party who wants to increase tax to 57% while increasing dole payments by €42 a week.

Ludicrous.

 

[2cents]

I don’t follow Irish politics at all, could someone be so kind as to summarise it in terms of Left/Centre/Right performance or if possible a Labour/Liberal/Conservative comparison?

Also is there any clues as to how the Union/United Ireland is viewed after Brexit or is that something only Northern Ireland elections could clarify?

Classic left-right politics hasn’t been a reliable guide to understand Irish politics historically. I’d say this may be the first election where there appears to be a fairly symmetrical left-right divide emerging, with the two traditional major center-right parties who have dominated every government in our history now gathering less than 50% of the vote together (actually looks like 45% today) faced on the other side by the nationalist though left-wing (populist some would argue) Sinn Fein and a collection of smaller left parties, ranging from the Social Democrats and Labour to the more far-left (relatively speaking) People Before Profit. Together these appear to have received around 40% of the vote. The balance is largely made up by independents, who play a bigger role in Irish politics than most other democracies I’m aware of. My impression is they mostly lean left. There are also a tiny number of far-right figures who are electorally insignificant.

What it means for unification is unclear. Sentimentally the vast majority of us would love to see it, and Brexit would appear to have opened a path in that direction. But practical considerations make it an extremely dangerous pursuit right now.

 

[2cents]

Also @Pexbo, it’s worth noting that Sinn Fein are a rather unique party in terms of contemporary European politics, as unlike most continental nationalist parties - who lean right - they embrace a popular left-wing social and internationalist agenda. This is due in large part to their evolution in the second half of the twentieth century which shaped them as a ‘resistance’, anti-imperialist party, sharing many of the characteristics of their ‘third-world’ counterparts of the 70s and 80s. In the Republic, it’s more their social agenda which has fueled their growing popularity rather than their international worldview or commitment to unification.

 

[Conor]

nice to see that the IRA based attacks haven't hurt the Sinn Fein vote

classic old fashioned scaremongering and good to see voters focusing on real issues

the British general election should have really been about austerity rather than Brexit

Is it nice to see, given the recency of some of the links? Do you think it's all lies? I had an interest in voting SF, until I was given some info in here(and went on to read more myself), and it seems like they're still intertwined with a terrorist organisation.

 

[golden_blunder]

Kind of sad to see voters not to pay any regard to how likely it is for SF to actually be able to enforce anything in their manifesto. Fund everything, but from where?

We are a country that spends a quarter (a fecking quarter) of our entire tax take on welfare, and we are looking to a party who wants to increase tax to 57% while increasing dole payments by €42 a week.

Ludicrous.

Shhhhhhhj stop trying to insert logic into SF manifestos

They’re in opposition, it’s easy to talk popular sound bites when you’re not in a position to be judged by what you’re saying. The best way to show them up would actually be to put them in government

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Peter Casey polling less than 3%, down from 30% during the presidential election.

Lovely to see where his actual level without the oxygen of controversy.

 

[DJ Jeff]

Shhhhhhhj stop trying to insert logic into SF manifestos

They’re in opposition, it’s easy to talk popular sound bites when you’re not in a position to be judged by what you’re saying. The best way to show them up would actually be to put them in government

It would be hilarious to see their excuses after the first 6 months

 

[sullydnl]

nice to see that the IRA based attacks haven't hurt the Sinn Fein vote

classic old fashioned scaremongering and good to see voters focusing on real issues

the British general election should have really been about austerity rather than Brexit

I mean the PSNI have literally said that Sinn Fein are still under the direction of the IRA army council. People who want to dismiss that fact (and the pleas not to vote SF from victims of the IRA) simply as scaremongering are trying to ease their conscience, methinks.

 

[golden_blunder]

Peter Casey polling less than 3%, down from 30% during the presidential election.

Lovely to see where his actual level without the oxygen of controversy.

He’s an eejit

 

[golden_blunder]

It would be hilarious to see their excuses after the first 6 months

What do you mean we’ve ran out of money?
Nobody panic!! Ok let’s say 15,000 new homes rather than 100,000
Noooo we said that all along!

 

[sullydnl]

I don’t follow Irish politics at all, could someone be so kind as to summarise it in terms of Left/Centre/Right performance or if possible a Labour/Liberal/Conservative comparison?

Fine Gael are essentially Tories. Fianna Fail are also a centre-right party, typically more populist. Sinn Fein are to the left of the UK's Labour party, also populist, also nationalist. Of the smaller parties Labour are Labour, Greens are the Greens, not sure where the Social Democrats would fit.

 

[DJ Jeff]

Fine Gael are essentially Tories. Fianna Fail are also a centre-right party, typically more populist. Sinn Fein are to the left of the UK's Labour party, also populist, also nationalist. Of the smaller parties Labour are Labour, Greens are the Greens, not sure where the Social Democrats would fit.

Dunno if I'd describe SF in the modern era as nationalists rather than internationalists. 20 years ago for sure though

 

[buckooo1978]

Kind of sad to see voters not to pay any regard to how likely it is for SF to actually be able to enforce anything in their manifesto. Fund everything, but from where?

We are a country that spends a quarter (a fecking quarter) of our entire tax take on welfare, and we are looking to a party who wants to increase tax to 57% while increasing dole payments by €42 a week.

Ludicrous.

I see it from a selfish point of view as a Northerner

I'd want to live in a United Ireland before I die and an all Irish Party in a position of power would help move things on in that regard

I'm not really clued in on economics in the South... all I know is friends i have in Dublin/Louth are really fed up with status quo, homelessness, house prices etc

funnily enough Sinn Fein voted in North in favour of Tory Welfare reform in 2015

 

[buckooo1978]

I mean the PSNI have literally said that Sinn Fein are still under the direction of the IRA army council. People who want to dismiss that fact (and the pleas not to vote SF from victims of the IRA) simply as scaremongering are trying to ease their conscience, methinks.

so you think political strategy comes from the army council? I think not - Sinn Fein will historically always be linked and members of the IRA will always have influence within a republican political movement - I think its ludicrous to think that an army council is directing Michelle O Neill or Mary Lou

on a fundamental level does an army council really function after such a sustained period of peace - maybe you are confusing it with a Republican leadership that agitate politically

The IRA have been inactive for almost 30 years...that's a truth that has been accepted in the North and former active members like Martin McGuinness were good political leaders - I dont see the ballot box being replaced by the gun any time in my lifetime

surprised that it was even raised as an issue considering the South was relatively untouched by the troubles

 

[balaks]

It is interesting to see the issues in the south about voting Sinn Fein yet they are totally fine with them being in power in the north.

 

[golden_blunder]

I wouldn’t say that the south was relatively untouched by the troubles

 

[cyberman]

Kind of sad to see voters not to pay any regard to how likely it is for SF to actually be able to enforce anything in their manifesto. Fund everything, but from where?

We are a country that spends a quarter (a fecking quarter) of our entire tax take on welfare, and we are looking to a party who wants to increase tax to 57% while increasing dole payments by €42 a week.

Ludicrous.

Everybody exaggerates in their manifesto though. They might not implement it but they can go in that direction.
Anyway, they dont even have to touch it. The public are fed up and just need something different. Help ease the housing crisis, dont insult the electorate etc all year round would be enough.
Their manifesto makes as much sense as the other big two who suddenly have all the answers despite 100 years in office.

 

[Sweet Square]

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[sullydnl]

so you think political strategy comes from the army council? I think not - Sinn Fein will historically always be linked and members of the IRA will always have influence within a republican political movement - I think its ludicrous to think that an army council is directing Michelle O Neill or Mary Lou

on a fundamental level does an army council really function after such a sustained period of peace - maybe you are confusing it with a Republican leadership that agitate politically

The IRA have been inactive for almost 30 years...that's a truth that has been accepted in the North and former active members like Martin McGuinness were good political leaders - I dont see the ballot box being replaced by the gun any time in my lifetime

surprised that it was even raised as an issue considering the South was relatively untouched by the troubles

In 2015 the PSNI & MI5 said the army council was still active and overseeing Sinn Fein's political strategy, an assessment the Gardai endorsed. There was also an independent assessment prompted by the UK government at that time which came to the same conclusion. I would have to be quite odd to think I know more about the workings of the IRA than the PSNI, MI5, Gardai and an independent assessment combined.

You say the IRA have been inactive in the north for 20 years. Yet the 2015 murder of Kevin McGuigan was attributed to members of the provisional IRA, with the PSNI Chief Constable at that point also stating that the IRA army council was still active. The line between "official" activity and "unofficial" activity within existing IRA structures is extremely thin.

Also, leaving all of that aside, even if elected Sinn Fein officials are just just taking direction from non-violent and non-elected "senior republicans" (as the cash for ash scandal suggested), it's still a problem.

Forgetting any moral qualms this carries, all of this is relevant now in the ROI in relation to a prospective Sinn Fein' government's relationship with the SCC, the Gardai, the UK government and, of course, victims of the IRA who are still alleging that Sinn Fein aren't assisting investigations into their loved ones deaths as they should. These are real and unique problems that other parties don't have, so for them to be dismissed simply as scaremongering is silly.

 

[Withnail]

Sinn Fein candidate and Supporters in the RDS singing 'Come out ye Black and Tans' on RTE News there.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/com...ebel-songs-at-count-centre-1.4167043?mode=amp

 

[sullydnl]

It is interesting to see the issues in the south about voting Sinn Fein yet they are totally fine with them being in power in the north.

I mean ideally neither Sinn Fein nor the DUP would be in power in the north either as both are absolutely horrible. It's not like NI is a functioning example of their wholesome brilliance or anything. If it's a choice between them being in power in the north and the disintegration of peace though then needs must, even if it isn't something people actually like.

Thankfully the political landscape in the ROI is vastly different, so we're not left trying to make a government from the best of that particularly bad situation. The idea that different standards wouldn't apply seems strange to me given how different the two situations are.

 

[golden_blunder]

Sinn Fein candidate and Supporters in the RDS singing 'Come out ye Black and Tans' on RTE News there.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/come-out-ye-black-and-tans-sinn-féin-supporters-celebrate-with-rebel-songs-at-count-centre-1.4167043?mode=amp

Classy. This is why many still don’t like them

Anyways, they are gobbling the seats up now it seems so maybe it’s time for them to put up or shut up

 

[Brophs]

I would be pretty surprised if it's not FF/SF. Two scorpions just relentlessly stinging each other until they both drown, all while shouting "Actually, you're wrong...." over each other.

 

[Eyepopper]

There hasn't been a SF TD in my constituency in 100 years.

The guy running for them couldn't even get elected to the local council at the last local elections.

Hes currently topping the polls with about 24% of first preference votes!

Insane, and it looks like a pattern thats being repeated in a number of constituencies. I guess a lot of people really have, finally, had enough of FFG.